Around The NHL 2022-23 Regular Season

[SwampD]

On 2/4/2023 at 2:50 PM, SDS said:

Haven’t they done the analysis and found out that there are almost no changes in the standings when changing to a 3-2-1-0 system?

10 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I was wondering what the difference would be so I recalculated the Eastern Conference standings using the 3-2-1 points system vs the current one:

CURRENT:
1-BOS-83 pts
2-CAR-76
3-TOR-70
4-NJD-68
5-TBY-65
6-NYR-62
7-WSH-60
8-PIT-57
9-BUF-56
10-NYI-54
11-FLA-51
12-OTT-51
13-PHI-51
14-DET-50
15-MTL-44
16-CBS-34

USING 3-2-1: (BOLD team moves up, ITALIC team moves down)
1-BOS-115 pts
2-TOR-96
3-CAR-93
4-TBY-89 (more regl wins)
5-NJD-89
6-NYR-80
7-WSH-79
8-NYI-76
9-FLA-75 (more regl wins)
10-PIT-75
11-BUF-73
12-PHI-71
13-OTT-68
14-DET-64
15-MTL-48
16-CBS-42

 

Nice work. I've done something like this before and it is just such a non-issue when you look at the differences. There is always a few order changes at the top and one team might not make at the Botton and another might, and who cares about those teams anyway.

I honestly don't understand why people get their panties in such a twist over this.

People always throw out that "skills competition" phrase, and it is, but they've lowered the value of those wins, anyway. Also, whatever the slight advantage winning shootouts gives to teams in the final standings may be, don't we want more skill in the playoffs?

Edited February 5, 2023 by SwampD

[PromoTheRobot]

6 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Nice work. I've done something like this before and it is just such a non-issue when you look at the differences. There is always a few order changes at the top and one team might not make at the Botton and another might, and who cares about those teams anyway.

I honestly don't understand why people get their panties in such a twist over this.

People always throw out that "skills competition" phrase, and it is, but they've lowered the value of those wins, anyway. Also, whatever the slight advantage winning shootouts gives to teams in the final standings may be, don't we want more skill in the playoffs?

I thought it made quite the difference. Certainly puts a premium on regulation wins.

[SwampD]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I thought it made quite the difference. Certainly puts a premium on regulation wins.

Pitt not making it and NYI getting in is not a big difference.

[steveoath]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

Is the quoted part from LL? Isn't it him that signs off on the term/aav?

[shrader]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

Nice work. I've done something like this before and it is just such a non-issue when you look at the differences. There is always a few order changes at the top and one team might not make at the Botton and another might, and who cares about those teams anyway.

I honestly don't understand why people get their panties in such a twist over this.

People always throw out that "skills competition" phrase, and it is, but they've lowered the value of those wins, anyway. Also, whatever the slight advantage winning shootouts gives to teams in the final standings may be, don't we want more skill in the playoffs?

These direct conversions are meaningless though. With a different set of scoring rules, teams change the way they approach the games. The most obvious one would be that currently in a tied game in the last 10 minutes or so, teams play for the tie. 

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

Is the quoted part from LL? Isn't it him that signs off on the term/aav?

It's being reported, and CapFriendly is already listing it (they're pretty good about waiting on the details), at 8 x $8.5M AAV.  That's market price for a point-per-game and 30-goal scorer...  but he's already at 30 goals this year. I think Horvat left money on the table as well as the choice of as many as 10 teams including the Isles. I'm not sure why he didn't wait until summer to see what he could land, especially if he stays hot and guides the Isles to the playoffs with a 50-goal campaign. Or worse, for Horvat, if the Isles fall apart and now have an old and overpaid roster and he's trapped there with his NTC and Lou retires or gets let go at the end of this season.

Edited February 6, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[LGR4GM]

25 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

It's being reported, and CapFriendly is already listing it (they're pretty good about waiting on the details), at 8 x $8.5M AAV.  That's market price for a point-per-game and 30-goal scorer...  but he's already at 30 goals this year. I think Horvat left money on the table as well as the choice of as many as 10 teams including the Isles. I'm not sure why he didn't wait until summer to see what he could land, especially if he stays hot and guides the Isles to the playoffs with a 50-goal campaign. Or worse, for Horvat, if the Isles fall apart and now have an old and overpaid roster and he's trapped there with his NTC and Lou retires or gets let go at the end of this season.

Idk if you wanna label a guy who's only season at ppg is this one, as a ppg player. He's also shooting 7.7% above his career average that spans 8 previous seasons. 

All I'm saying is the most likely outcome is regression for Horvat.

Edited February 6, 2023 by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

31 minutes ago, shrader said:

These direct conversions are meaningless though. With a different set of scoring rules, teams change the way they approach the games. The most obvious one would be that currently in a tied game in the last 10 minutes or so, teams play for the tie. 

I know this gets mentioned a lot, but does this actually happen? Just because no one scored, doesn't mean they were trying for that to happen.

[LGR4GM]

 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Well ok I guess lol

[Eleven]

I read an article today about Jason Payne, the head coach of the Cincinnati Cyclones, who is black.  https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/jason-payne-one-of-only-two-black-head-coaches-in-pro-hockey-has-sabres-echl/article_d750d656-a3c7-11ed-8c0c-2b870d7f23b7.html

 

The article mentions that Dirk Graham was the only black head coach in NHL history.  I watched Graham play and loved his game.  I never knew he is black until today.  Then again, I thought Sal Capaccio was black until a few months ago (it turns out that he is not and that his twitter photo was just really dark), so maybe I just need my eyes examined or something.  Not that any of this matters; I'm just having some fun with my own ignorance. 

[bunomatic]

Apparently J.Chychrun has removed the Coyote affiliation from his social media.

[Contempt]

37 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Apparently J.Chychrun has removed the Coyote affiliation from his social media.

And the plot thickens...

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, bunomatic said:

Apparently J.Chychrun has removed the Coyote affiliation from his social media.

It's the 2023 version of Marty Biron's 2006-07 white goalie mask.

32 minutes ago, Contempt said:

And the plot thickens...

Maybe!

[Huckleberry]

Shocker -  44 games played and risto +/- is 0 😱

[Eleven]

12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Shocker -  44 games played and risto +/- is 0 😱

That's gotta be a personal best.

EDIT:  It would be, if he can keep it up:  https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/ristora01.html

Edited February 6, 2023 by Eleven

[MattPie]

38 minutes ago, Eleven said:

That's gotta be a personal best.

EDIT:  It would be, if he can keep it up:  https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/ristora01.html

Amazingly, his TOI is much lower this year compared to any other year in his career.

[Eleven]

6 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Amazingly, his TOI is much lower this year compared to any other year in his career.

And this may be the explanation.

He was a workhorse defenseman here, but not able to do that job.

[shrader]

16 hours ago, SwampD said:

I know this gets mentioned a lot, but does this actually happen? Just because no one scored, doesn't mean they were trying for that to happen.

Of course it does.  The easiest to believe scenarios are down the stretch, the so called "when every point matters" point of the season (every point matters all year).  If you're a handful of points away from locking up a spot, you're not doing anything to risk losing that one point you're already on pace to get.

[SwampD]

8 minutes ago, shrader said:

Of course it does.  The easiest to believe scenarios are down the stretch, the so called "when every point matters" point of the season (every point matters all year).  If you're a handful of points away from locking up a spot, you're not doing anything to risk losing that one point you're already on pace to get.

I don't believe, and never have, that in game, players think like that.

[Wyldnwoody44]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I don't believe, and never have, that in game, players think like that.

I recall vividly the Sabres and Flyers (I believe) years back... They were tied in the 3rd, a tie got both teams in the dance. They did absolutley nothing, including standing behind the net for what seemed like minutes letting the clock tick away so they got in. So 1000% they think this way in certain game situations. 

[shrader]

1 minute ago, SwampD said:

I don't believe, and never have, that in game, players think like that.

How about a team that knows they're a lot better in OT and shootouts than they are at 5 on 5 hockey?  Even if somehow the players don't realize that, the coaching staff sure as hell does and will tweak the game plan and ice time late to salvage that tie.  Just look how overtime hockey changed the second the bonus point was established... even before the switch to 3 on 3.  OT was horribly boring most nights back when there were ties.  Once they added that point, teams loosened up in OT and started taking chances.  When you change rules, the teams adapt to that and change.

[MattPie]

31 minutes ago, shrader said:

Of course it does.  The easiest to believe scenarios are down the stretch, the so called "when every point matters" point of the season (every point matters all year).  If you're a handful of points away from locking up a spot, you're not doing anything to risk losing that one point you're already on pace to get.

 

22 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I don't believe, and never have, that in game, players think like that.

 

16 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I recall vividly the Sabres and Flyers (I believe) years back... They were tied in the 3rd, a tie got both teams in the dance. They did absolutley nothing, including standing behind the net for what seemed like minutes letting the clock tick away so they got in. So 1000% they think this way in certain game situations. 

Yep, at least the last 30-60 seconds of the 3rd they literally stood behind the net, and the other team had no intention of trying to go get it. Can't figure out what to search on YouTube to find it.

[thewookie1]

39 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I recall vividly the Sabres and Flyers (I believe) years back... They were tied in the 3rd, a tie got both teams in the dance. They did absolutley nothing, including standing behind the net for what seemed like minutes letting the clock tick away so they got in. So 1000% they think this way in certain game situations. 

Yup that was our last playoff appearance. Sabres vs Flyers was both of our season finales and an OT game would lead to us playing each other in Rd 1. Effectively the final 5 minutes were players just skating with the puck waiting out the clock

[DarthEbriate]

18 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk if you wanna label a guy who's only season at ppg is this one, as a ppg player. He's also shooting 7.7% above his career average that spans 8 previous seasons. 

All I'm saying is the most likely outcome is regression for Horvat.

I expect he will have regression. But all he needs to do is get 9 more goals, hit 40, and point at Skinner and say, "More than him." Horvat is a center, is extremely solid on faceoffs, he's been a bright spot (relative Corsi) on a poor-to-middling team for years. I think he should be looking at $9M as his floor.

I don't think he'll push the Isles over the edge, but I think he'll make them better and keep them relevant in the playoff race this year and in the next couple years in the Metro as their core gets too old... to their eventual dismay as they'll be caught in that muddy 8th-12th area.

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

Amazingly, his TOI is much lower this year compared to any other year in his career.

Third-pair, playing in a Torts system, and Torts scratched him early in the season, so maybe he's finally learning to cover the opposition first and foremost. Good for Risto. It'd have been nice had he learned how to be a dependable d-man in Rochester... but when you're blocked by old Meszaros and Benoit, you're not blocked.