Dahlin cracks NHL’s top 100 player list - barely

[dudacek]

The Athletic’s top 100 - assembled in draft form by their analytics and scouting writers, then vetted and reshaped with feedback by actual NHL execs - is out.

https://theathletic.com/3590441/2022/09/15/nhl-player-rankings-connor-mcdavid/

Dahlin is the only Sabre: 99th on the list, 33rd among defenceman.

Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin was an interesting debate after an excellent offensive season. He has all the tools of a star defenseman between his elite hands and offensive instincts to go with good size and mobility. You could easily make a debate about whether he should be higher based on what we expect he could do next season, but that requires a step up in play at five-on-five, specifically in his own end. The panel held out that they wanted to see it more consistently, but not without detractors from around the league who expect Dahlin to make a big jump in the not-too-distant future.

“Defensemen sometimes take longer than forwards. Some of the best defensemen in the league right now didn’t play like that until they were 22, 23, 24 years old. Dahlin will be a top NHL defenseman sometime in the next few years,” said an NHL executive.

Among the higher-ranked defencemen: 

Thomas Chabot, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Anderson, Mackenzie Weegar, Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Eric Karlsson.

[LGR4GM]

My gripe about the article isn't Dahlin but the fact they don't adequate explain what their spreadsheet headings mean. Sure I get TOI/G/A but what do you mean Offense? or Defense? What is that measuring? GSVA they say what it is but give me almost nothing on how it gets calculated. The f is USG? Usage I assume but what does the number mean? Really frustrating to read something like this an engage with it. 

"The other stats are projected stats for the 2022-23 season — goals, assists, points, individual expected goals, penalty differential and five-on-five (offensive and defensive) impact, plus an adjustment for the difficulty of each player’s minutes."

Which one is penalty differential? What does offensive impact mean? Dahlin's is -6.1 for ducks sake. 

[Curt]

Interesting that Dahlin ranks 33rd on this list, but 18th on NHL.com Top 20 Defensemen list.

Seems like this list probably went through a more rigorous process, but I’m not sure that means that it’s better.

[GASabresIUFAN]

How many Sabres would you expect?  On average your talking about 3 players per NHL team.  Good teams with more and "rebuilding" teams with less.  

Objectively you are probably looking at a list of 63-65 forwards, 30-32 D and 5 or 6 Goalies before even starting to dive into the analytics and stats.

So is Dahlin one of the top 30 D in the NHL?  I'd agree with that, but probably in the 21-30 range.

Obviously we don't have one of the top 5 or 6 goalies.

At forward Thompson finished 49th last year in forward scoring.  Skinner was 65th. Thompson finished 19th in forward goal scoring and Skinner was tied for 33rd.  I think there is a plausible argument that Tage and even Skinner are arguably in the top 65 forwards in the NHL based on last year's performance.  However, I can also understand leaving Skinner and Tage out given their performance in recent prior seasons.  

I do think if Tage has another great year, he'll easily make next years list.  

Not that any list really matters. 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LHSN1965]

Dahlin 33e😂

[dudacek]

List did not include goalies.

Some of the forwards ranked ahead of Tage:

Danault, Erikson Ek, Mangiapane, Nichshkin, Schiefele, Teravainen, Hischier, Buchnevich, Bratt, and Carter Verhaege

[Sabres Fan in NS]

All these lists are pretty dumb.

They are all based on certain criteria and have a certain amount of room for some bias.

All that matters is how the Sabre players do each and every night against the other team's players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

List did not include goalies.

Some of the forwards ranked ahead of Tage:

Danault, Erikson Ek, Mangiapane, Nichshkin, Schiefele, Teravainen, Hischier, Buchnevich, Bratt, and Carter Verhaege

Many of these guys have longer track records of success like Teravainen.  Others, like Verhaege, have shown consistent develop.  Tage not being rated is more likely a reaction to the surprise nature of his season.  If (when?) he does it again this year, that doubt will dissipate.  

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Among the higher-ranked defencemen: 

Thomas Chabot, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Anderson, Mackenzie Weegar, Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Eric Karlsson.

Darnell Nurse is one I don't get at all.  Of course I know less about hockey than the players/execs/scouts, etc. But to me he seems to be rated so highly because he is paid well, he 'looks' the part of a great D-man (like Risto), and he as the raw skill/athletic ability.  When I see him play though, I see a lot of what I do with Risto...out of position, one step behind the play in terms of decision making, etc.   Again, maybe I'm missing a lot of what other see, but I think he is one of the most over-rated 'top' D-men in the league. 

He is very young, and he is rated a lot higher than Dahlin, but even when attempting to take off my 'Sabres fandom hat', I would not trade Dahlin for Nurse even if you throw in a top pick and a top prospect with him.

Edited September 15, 2022 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

All these lists are pretty dumb.

They are all based on certain criteria and have a certain amount of room for some bias.

All that matters is how the Sabre players do each and every night against the other team's players.

Amen brother.  The Sabres moving up in the standings is all that really matters. 

FYI, NHL.com has Tage 131 on their fantasy list.

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

Darnell Nurse is one I don't get at all.  Of course I know less about hockey than the players/execs/scouts, etc. But to me he seems to be rated so highly because he is paid well, he 'looks' the part of a great D-man (like Risto), and he as the raw skill/athletic ability.  When I see him play though, I see a lot of what I do with Risto...out of position, one step behind the play in terms of decision making, etc.   Again, maybe I'm missing a lot of what other see, but I think he is one of the most over-rated 'top' D-men in the league.

Nurse is in no way better than Dahlin.

[JoeSchmoe]

Let's make a positive example out of the first national reporter that looks at the team with a similar lens as we do. All these guys are lazy. 

Going into 2005, there were many positive signs with our depth chart that were missed by everyone (the emergence of Miller, Pommer, Roy, Vanek, etc in the minors) plus an already decent core (Drury, Briere, etc). I feel like this year is similar... Maybe a bit earlier in the process though.

[Buffalonill]

Hes a good player but not part of the elite group imo yet.

 

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Hes a good player but not part of the elite group imo yet.

 

 

I don't see anyone calling Dahlin elite at this point, but most see that he is on his way.

[Zamboni]

And certainly a lot of the defenseman who are ahead of him on this stupid list… Aren’t elite either.

So there’s that …

 

[inkman]

This is how I feel about rankings 

[JoeSchmoe]

51 minutes ago, inkman said:

This is how I feel about rankings 

This is how I care about rankings.

[PerreaultForever]

A lot of these lists also consider playoff performances. Not making the playoffs gets a lot of players ignored or dismissed. 

[Thorny]

33rd among D. Ok. 

8 hours ago, Curt said:

Interesting that Dahlin ranks 33rd on this list, but 18th on NHL.com Top 20 Defensemen list.

Seems like this list probably went through a more rigorous process, but I’m not sure that means that it’s better.

Smart! Sabres twitter wrote Dahlin off a year ago, so if the Athletic is populated with writers like that, I know what I’d bet on. 

They’ll be hesitant to move off of that even thought it’s clear the Krueger Age represented an anomalific dark period. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Many of these guys have longer track records of success like Teravainen.  Others, like Verhaege, have shown consistent develop.  Tage not being rated is more likely a reaction to the surprise nature of his season.  If (when?) he does it again this year, that doubt will dissipate.  

Agree, Dahlin was our MVP last year imo and the weirder slight, and I’ve spoken a few times about expecting this type of stuff. 

This is Josh Allen at 13 type stuff in the nfl 100

Seth Jones is also wildly overrated btw 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Thorny

[Digger]

Rankings are generally aggravating to review as a Sabre fan.  Personally I think there's always a bias toward the bigger market teams (Toronto, Montreal, Rangers, etc.).  What's the ranking criteria and is it consistent and data driven or subjective to the writer's bias or hockey market bias?  Start asking the question of "would you trade the lower ranked player for the higher ranked player 1 for 1"?  I agree that sometimes a lower ranked player that you would not trade has not reached their ceiling yet and you may be holding on because of potential and overall value.