The Sabres up front: half-empty or half-full?

[dudacek]

To me, this is what makes this team so fascinating this year: besides Girgensons, we've got no one who counts as a "we know what we have"

Half-empty:

• Skinner: scored only 21 goals in the 2 seasons prior to last year combined
• Tuch: has topped 18 goals and 37 points just once in his career
• Thompson: just 35 points in 145 NHL games prior to last year
• Olofsson: has never topped 20 goals or 49 points
• Okposo: averaged just 8 goals and 12 assists over the 3 seasons prior to last year
• Cozens: 13 goals is his career high
• Mittelstadt: career highs of 12 goals and 25 points came 4 years ago
• Asplund: career high for goals is just 8
• Krebs: career high for goals is just 7
• Peterka: has played only 2 NHL games
• Quinn: has played only 2 NHL games

Half-full:

• Skinner: 5-time 30-goal scorer, had 33 last year
• Tuch: produced like a 25-goal, 65-point 1st-liner during time with Sabres
• Thompson: finished 8th in goals among centres in the entire NHL last year
• Olofsson: 29 goals and 56 points are his career averages per 82 games
• Okposo: 21 goals and 41 points ranked him as a borderline NHL 1st-line winger last year
• Cozens: only 21, former top 10 pick with world-class 1st-line junior production
• Mittelstadt: 41 points over his past 81 games despite playing through an aggravated hernia and Ralph Krueger
• Asplund: Selke votes while putting up 27 points in first full NHL season
• Krebs: a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer
• Peterka:  a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer
• Quinn: the most productive season by a U21 AHLer in a generation

Edited September 13, 2022 by dudacek

[PASabreFan]

I ran out of time.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To me, this is what makes this team so fascinating this year: besides Girgensons, we've got no one who counts as a "we know what we have"

Half-empty:

• Skinner: scored only 21 goals in the 2 seasons prior to last year combined - Krueger seasons
• Tuch: has topped 18 goals and 37 points just once in his career - Buried in Vegas
• Thompson: just 35 points in 145 NHL games prior to last year - Move to center
• Olofsson: has never topped 20 goals or 49 points - Injuries but I will take a 50pt olofsson
• Okposo: averaged just 8 goals and 12 assists over the 3 seasons prior to last year - Finally healthy
• Cozens: 13 goals is his career high - Primed for 3rd year breakout
• Mittelstadt: career highs of 12 goals and 25 points came 4 years ago - ummm fingers crossed?
• Asplund: career high for goals is just 8 - He's fine
• Krebs: career high for goals is just 7 - he was a rookie
• Peterka: has played only 2 NHL games - well ya, it's his rookie year now
• Quinn: has played only 2 NHL games - well ya, it's his rookie year now

Half-full:

• Skinner: 5-time 30-goal scorer, had 33 last year
• Tuch: produced like a 25-goal, 65-point 1st-liner during time with Sabres
• Thompson: finished 8th in goals among centres in the entire NHL last year
• Olofsson: 29 goals and 56 points are his career averages per 82 games
• Okposo: 21 goals and 41 points ranked him as a borderline NHL 1st-line winger last year
• Cozens: only 21, former top 10 pick with world-class 1st-line junior production
• Mittelstadt: 41 points over his past 81 games despite playing through an aggravated hernia and Ralph Krueger
• Asplund: Selke votes while putting up 27 points in first full NHL season
• Krebs: a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer
• Peterka:  a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer
• Quinn: the most productive season by a U21 AHLer in a generation

Half-empty:

• Skinner: scored only 21 goals in the 2 seasons prior to last year combined - Krueger seasons
• Tuch: has topped 18 goals and 37 points just once in his career - Buried in Vegas
• Thompson: just 35 points in 145 NHL games prior to last year - Move to center
• Olofsson: has never topped 20 goals or 49 points - Injuries but I will take a 50pt olofsson
• Okposo: averaged just 8 goals and 12 assists over the 3 seasons prior to last year - Finally healthy
• Cozens: 13 goals is his career high - Primed for 3rd year breakout
• Mittelstadt: career highs of 12 goals and 25 points came 4 years ago - ummm fingers crossed?
• Asplund: career high for goals is just 8 - He's fine
• Krebs: career high for goals is just 7 - he was a rookie
• Peterka: has played only 2 NHL games - well ya, it's his rookie year now
• Quinn: has played only 2 NHL games - well ya, it's his rookie year now

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Half-full:

• Mittelstadt: 41 points over his past 81 games despite playing through an aggravated hernia and Ralph Krueger

Ralph Krueger is an aggravated hernia

Edited September 13, 2022 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

As I’ve said before, this is the deepest and most talented forward group Buffalo will field since 2005-2007.  Like that team, they are 4 lines deep and will have scoring threats throughout the lineup.  With a little luck in the health department, all 13 forwards have the ability to score 10+ goals and 9 guys have the skill to put up 20 or more (KO, VO, TnT, Coz, JJP, Quinn, Tuch, Skinner and even Mitts).  I’m expecting at least 260 goals this coming season and at least 10 guys in double digits and 5-6 guys with 20 or more.

Edited September 13, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is a quick team goal projection

top scorers - TNT 28, Skinner 27, VO 24, Tuch 23, Cozens 21

Potential for more - Mitts 18, Quinn 17

Solid contributions - KO 15, Krebs 14, JJP 13, Asplund 13

Depth - Z 9, Vinnie 9

Others - 8 (last season Caggulia, Murray, R2, and Jankowski gave us 74 games and 8 goals). With depth of Bjork, Malone, Murray, Biro and others, I don’t think 8 goals is an unreasonable guess.

Defense 26 - Dahlin 11, Power 8 and 7 from everyone else. (We had 26 goals by D last year)

That’s 265 goals up from 232 last season.  This may seem like a huge increase, but it really isn’t. Last year Eakin, Hayden and Bjork played 182 games scoring only 11 goals.  We also basically only received half seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs (138 games with 25g).  Add full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs plus the additions of JJP and Quinn and we easily have the potential to add 30-35 goals. 

Now if we can cut 25 goals against, we’ll reach a 0 goal differential and become a playoff contender.

Edited September 13, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

How many teams had a dozen 10-goal scorers last year?

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How many teams had a dozen 10-goal scorers last year?

I went and looked at a few team, all 8 I looked at had at least 10.  Pitt had 12, and Edm 13.  I also look at us, LV, TB, Car, Det, and Edm.

[PerreaultForever]

Well, you could say there is no forward on this roster as good as Eichel and, arguably, there is no forward on this roster as good as Reinhart, so objectively right there we aren't as good in terms of high end talent. 

However, I would say it's a team sport, and the dynamics of this team are better than they have been in a long time and players should feed off of that. It's a better mix, but how it all comes together and how well the younger players play remains to be seen. I would expect a high effort level in any event. That at least will be somewhat refreshing. 

[Thorny]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

How many teams had a dozen 10-goal scorers last year?

Counted. 5 of 32 teams did: Florida, Toronto, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, and Columbus

But if we are skipping right past the playoff teams of 10 and 11 and going straight to the best Sabres team I’ve ever seen in 06 for forward comparisons, I suppose it makes sense to have us in that group next year

EDIT: 4/32 actually, went to double check on Edmonton and Pittsburgh as I skipped them the first time as they had been covered, and Edmonton it turns out did not actually accomplish the feat (they had 10, not 13)

Edited September 14, 2022 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So, 2? 

25% of the 8 I looked at.  10-11 seems to be the most common result.  Most teams should expect their top 9 forwards to score at least 10 goals and then add one D who QB’s the PP and you get to 10 pretty easily.  The more I delve into this projection the question isn’t the how many players, but how balanced the 10-12 guys are if you plan to roll 4 lines like Ruff did in 2005/6.  For example are you like TB with only 10 guys but 8 of which potted 17 to 28 (plus Stamkos’ 40) or are you a top heavy team like Washington who also had 10 guys score in double digits, but most were in the middle to low teens.

If the Sabres are going to take the next step, I’d like to see 12 guys score 10+, but I’d rather have 10 guys reach 10+ if 7 of them score 20+ .

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

25% of the 8 I looked at.  10-11 seems to be the most common result.  Most teams should expect their top 9 forwards to score at least 10 goals and then add one D who QB’s the PP and you get to 10 pretty easily.  The more I delve into this projection the question isn’t the how many players, but how balanced the 10-12 guys are if you plan to roll 4 lines like Ruff did in 2005/6.  For example are you like TB with only 10 guys but 8 of which potted 17 to 28 (plus Stamkos’ 40) or are you a top heavy team like Washington who also had 10 guys score in double digits, but most were in the middle to low teens.

If the Sabres are going to take the next step, I’d like to see 12 guys score 10+, but I’d rather have 10 guys reach 10+ if 7 of them score 20+ .

There’s 4 league wide. 

Your 25% of your chosen 8 didn’t scale up.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Counted. 5 of 32 teams did: Florida, Toronto, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, and Columbus

But if we are skipping right past the playoff teams of 10 and 11 and going straight to the best Sabres team I’ve ever seen in 06 for forward comparisons, I suppose it makes sense to have us in that group next year

EDIT: 4/32 actually, went to double check on Edmonton and Pittsburgh as I skipped them the first time as they had been covered, and Edmonton it turns out did not actually accomplish the feat (they had 10, not 13)

I had a typo. Fla had 13. (Thus 2 of the 8 I looked at).

Edited September 14, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If the Sabres are going to take the next step, I’d like to see 12 guys score 10+, but I’d rather have 10 guys reach 10+ if 7 of them score 20+ .

I mean ya me too, that’s 120+ goals versus 170+ goals 

[LGR4GM]

Just remember, every team has excuses for why they didn't succeed. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

I mean ya me too, that’s 120+ goals versus 170+ goals 

I went and plowed through all 32 teams last year and the East is so much deeper and more balanced

The average team in the East has at least 10 10+ scorers on the roster including 1.5 D.  The West averages less than 9 (8.875) and less than 1 D per team (.875). The West also relies more on their better finishers averaging 4.25+ vs 4 20+ goal scorers, although Stl 9+ 20 goal scorers skews the data slightly.  Ultimately the average playoff team has at least 10 10+ goal scorers including 1 to 2 with 10+ and has 5 20 goal scorers.

265+ seems to the number to score to get and stay in contention.  Only 2 teams (LV and CBJ) scored 260+ and missed the playoffs and only two teams (Dal and the NYR) made the playoffs without reaching 260. CBJ missed because of terrible goaltending and defense and LV missed because of way to many key injuries.  The Rags made it because of top goaltending and defense, not sure how Dallas snuck in.

After looking at these numbers, I think more than ever that we are finally on the right track offensively. We have 10+ forwards who can reach 10+ goals and easily 5 or more guys who can score 20. We also have 2 D in Dahlin and Power who can add 10+. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[MattPie]

47 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

265+ seems to the number to score to get and stay in contention.  Only 2 teams (LV and CBJ) scored 260+ and missed the playoffs and only two teams (Dal and the NYR) made the playoffs without reaching 260. CBJ missed because of terrible goaltending and defense and LV missed because of way to many key injuries.  The Rags made it top because of top goaltending and defense, not sure how Dallas snuck in.

Nice work, thanks!

Bold: Dallas had an abundance of good goaltending, did they not? I remember chatter about how they had to get rid of 1-2 because they had a log jam. Plus, it's the West where last year there wasn't as clear a line between the playoff and not teams I'd guess.