Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[Thorny]

On 8/31/2022 at 5:39 AM, triumph_communes said:

People saying Tage was awful up until last year weren’t watching closely enough. He was a victim of bad coaching just as much as any. 
 

One of the lowest paid 1C in the league, almost scoring 40 goals. Can’t complain about that. 
 

He earned it. Some of this is makeup for the steal of a 3 yr contract he’s currently under. 

Agree except for the last sentence. Shouldn’t ever get into the business of paying based on the principle of “paying back” some of the value you gained. That’s too bad for Tage he was underpaid for one solitary season like most players who are good when young. He had 14 points the contracts’ previous year.

He gets a fair/good deal now, and yes, he’s earned it. But there’s no extra in there to make up for last season. 

It’s a bit extra (maybe?) to entice a signing now so we can, again, recoup value later.

I don’t think they’ll be interested in paying back Tage any value NEXT deal either if he outplays this one.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 8/31/2022 at 5:44 AM, Cascade Youth said:

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling.  He’s making arguments, maybe they’re bad ones, but it’s not incendiary drivel.  This place is tough for outsiders.  I get that there are about 20 of you “core” posters who are on here regularly but frankly it’s really not a friendly place for the rest of us.  The shunning that goes on here if you’re not a regular screen name - it’s frustrating and maybe warrants some self-reflection.  I dunno, maybe you all like it this way but as an outsider/lurker, the air is a bit stale in here - it’s basically the same posters making the same points in every thread - some of it is very insightful and that’s why I come back, but as I said it’s really not a welcoming place.  I really hope it doesn’t become an obscure sub-Reddit but there are days where it is trending that way.

Agree. They add to the forum and spark discussion. Good poster. 

[Thorny]

On 8/31/2022 at 7:44 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

Rooting for failure just to be able to say "I told you so." No one is ever really happy to be proven wrong.

@GASabresIUFAN s post are always well-thought out.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 8/31/2022 at 10:05 AM, Weave said:

Not old fashioned.  Risk averse.

Making risk averse decisions is safe.  But it never gives you the opportunity to have a player at a high value contract because you don’t offer the deal until both you and the players agent have a very concrete idea of value.  It also results in the team affording fewer impact players because you’ve waited until their contractual worth is at their highest before locking them in.

The reason TP is paying alot of money for a large analytics team is to make value decisions on obtaining players, and offering players contracts before their value had been fully set.

TT is the first big test of the analytics team IMO.

Salient. 

[Thorny]

On 8/31/2022 at 10:26 AM, MattPie said:

The Sabres have had luck in the past with the 2A 2B 2C 4 line setup.

The years the 2A performed like a bonafide 1., sure. 

It may come down to semantics, in that you can say you don’t necessarily need a guy who’s performed as a 1C for the duration of his career, but that team still had a guy performing functionally as a 1C within the timeframe quoted 

[dudacek]

The athletic with good fuel for the skeptics: a list of 20 times a player was signed following an outlier shooting % year and the contract blew up in the team’s face:

https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/

You’ll recognize the names Leino, Skinner and Stafford. (Sorry, @eleven) 

IMO most of the players don’t match Tage’s profile in that they weren’t just starting their careers, but the author says it is hard to find examples of players who maintained that kind of leap in their shooting.

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

Here is a more data-driven (sort of) analysis (paywall):

https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/?source=user_shared_article

 

 

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sabres on this list of "high shooting percentage, get the contract for all the money, and then revert back to your career sh%"

Drew Stafford, Jeff Skinner, and the #1 player on this list, Ville Leino. 

 

Now I personally always believe in career sh%. After you hit about 150-200 games, your sh% is pretty much set and you hover around that average. Notable exceptions you say? Samson Reinhart in 2018/19 season rocked a 12.2% which was right around his average up to then. His average up to that point was 12.24% so it was reasonable to expect that to continue as we are talking 322 games played (note I am not including his 9 games when he went back to the WHL). 

Sam Reinhart since that season has had a 15.3%, 19.2%, and 17.7% shooting percentage which would be significantly more than his average. Those averages indicate that his new average for those 3 years of 17.39% which is wildly better than 12.24%.  So there are players that have improved their shot and sustained a better sh%. 

 

Reinhart upped his sh% that much. I don't think the author looked hard. 

[French Collection]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The years the 2A performed like a bonafide 1., sure. 

It may come down to semantics, in that you can say you don’t necessarily need a guy who’s performed as a 1C for the duration of his career, but that team still had a guy performing functionally as a 1C within the timeframe quoted 

Not Sabres related but Chicago won three Cups with Toews as a 1C. He brought more to the table than points but he was never a big point producer. Kane, Hossa and Sharp rounded out a good forward group but those teams never boasted tons of skill down the middle. Dave Bolland, Marcus Kruger, 34 year old Brad Richards, Micnal Handzus, Colin Fraser and John Madden all took turns as 2-3 Cs during those runs.

I think the Sabres C spine will be better than that shortly. They need the goaltending to take a big jump and a few of the forwards to mature into what they can be. The D should be able to match up with anyone in a few years.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

So the real question isn't does Thompson manage to stay around 15% (he probably will not and I think that 11.6% average is more likely) but will Thompson continue to put up around 250 shots because if he doesn't, his sh% will matter a great deal less if we see a significant dropoff. 

The deal is a gamble. I want to have faith in Tage but we have been burned so often before. 

I’m probably missing something, can you clarify the bolded bit for me? 

As long as he IS getting a ton of shots, the drop off in sh% would mean less, right, as like you pointed out upthread, it’d still be high-20s-ish goals for him, no?

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Not Sabres related but Chicago won three Cups with Toews as a 1C. He brought more to the table than points but he was never a big point producer. Kane, Hossa and Sharp rounded out a good forward group but those teams never boasted tons of skill down the middle. Dave Bolland, Marcus Kruger, 34 year old Brad Richards, Micnal Handzus, Colin Fraser and John Madden all took turns as 2-3 Cs during those runs.

I think the Sabres C spine will be better than that shortly. They need the goaltending to take a big jump and a few of the forwards to mature into what they can be. The D should be able to match up with anyone in a few years.

I certainly wouldn’t argue Toews wasn’t a 1C during their runs, though. He certainly was. That’s a good point on their lack of the type of C talent you’d expect on a Cup winner BEYOND the top guy, though. 

Good depth at the other positions. 

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Reinhart upped his sh% that much. I don't think the author looked hard. 

With a change of external factors. Teammmates, role, etc along the way

Factors coincidentally present in some manner with Tage, too

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m probably missing something, can you clarify the bolded bit for me? 

As long as he IS getting a ton of shots, the drop off in sh% would mean less, right, as like you pointed out upthread, it’d still be high-20s-ish goals for him, no?

I'm saying the pundits are only talking about half the goal equation and even if Tage drops some in sh%, if he continues to get 250 shots he'll probably still be a 20 goal scorer or a 30 goal scorer. Number of shots matter and I want to see Tage get even more than 250.

Idk if that makes sense or answers your question. 

[LGR4GM]

Just to add. Tage can shoot 20% but if he drops down to 150 shots, that's a problem. 

[Huckleberry]

 

[SwampD]

On 8/31/2022 at 12:42 PM, Weave said:

You may not agree with the statement that the board is unwelcoming, but we’ve had many new or fairly infrequent posters mention it.  Your perspective isn’t the new guys perspective.  I think we all need to accept that we aren’t as welcoming as we think we are.

But how do we compare to other boards? Thats the real question.

From what I’ve seen, sports message boards in general are just awful.

[steveoath]

Fwiw I came here from the hfboards 4 years ago. They are an utter cesspool and no sense of any kind of community. I get more of a sense of everyone's personalities on here and in general discussions stick to debating the post not the poster. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

But how do we compare to other boards? Thats the real question.

From what I’ve seen, sports message boards in general are just awful.

Go back where you came from.

[PerreaultForever]

So basically Tage has to match the performance(s) of players like Landeskog, Connor, Barzal, Nylander, Reinhart (maybe skip that one) and such for this to be good value. Is that a fair statement?

If he's about a point a game guy it's a win but if it's less, how much less determines how much he's overpaid. Reasonable?

Unless of course he brings new intangibles like he beats up thugs from the other team or something. Value you can't really measure statistically.

We shall see. 

[dudacek]

Adams in the Buffalo News

Adams wants the extension to serve as a message the club will reward players who are committed to improving and want to be in Buffalo.

“I think one of the things I've talked to our players about, both collectively as a team and individually, is we want to do this the right way and really build this to set ourselves up for sustainable success,” he added. “And to do that, we have to identify who fits and who doesn't, who wants to be here, and who wants to be here for the right reasons. And we made it very clear when players show that and perform, that's how we're going to move forward with this group. 

“I think for the players, this is just maybe an example to our group of what we've been talking about. To me, it's exciting. And we really want our players to perform and be in a position where we can do this more and more.”

We’ve talked a lot about signings, and I've talked to (media) about discipline, and making sure that we're doing things appropriately. And one of the reasons we’re doing that is so we have the ability to sign our key core younger players to deals like this. We're also being strategic a little bit, to be honest, about the timeline knowing that there's other guys potentially next summer where we're going to be in this situation. We want to make sure we're being strategic on when and how we put these deals together. And that's why I felt like it made the most sense for us right now.”

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/inside-the-sabres-how-team-navigated-a-unique-marketplace-to-sign-tage-thompson/article_b17a4254-2aba-11ed-b45b-2b1b8ad1f5dd.html

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

So basically Tage has to match the performance(s) of players like Landeskog, Connor, Barzal, Nylander, Reinhart (maybe skip that one) and such for this to be good value. Is that a fair statement?

If he's about a point a game guy it's a win but if it's less, how much less determines how much he's overpaid. Reasonable?

Unless of course he brings new intangibles like he beats up thugs from the other team or something. Value you can't really measure statistically.

We shall see. 

He's being paid as a 25-30g, 65pt center. Less and we're overpaying, more and it's value. 

[Stads]

How are we going to fit this and Cody Eakin's monster contract under the cap when he comes back next year?

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

So basically Tage has to match the performance(s) of players like Landeskog, Connor, Barzal, Nylander, Reinhart (maybe skip that one) and such for this to be good value. Is that a fair statement?

If he's about a point a game guy it's a win but if it's less, how much less determines how much he's overpaid. Reasonable?

I don’t think so.

The contract doesn’t kick in until 23/24. If it were in effect this year, it would rank Tage 29th among centres. Last year, Tage ranked 8th among centres in goals, 23rd in points.

I’d say good value exists as long as he is statistically producing, say, 25th to 40th among NHL centres. Based on last year’s totals, 27 goals and 64 points is fair value.

But the point of this deal for the Sabres is that as salaries rise around the league, Tage’s will not. Many players will pass him. In 3 or 4 years, he may only need to rank 40-50th statistically to be at fair value, and at the end of the deal, assuming the cap behaves like it usually does, that may be 60-75th.

Edited September 4, 2022 by dudacek

[Radar]

Man this thread has taken on a life of it's own. Hope the season gets here quick.

[Zamboni]

On 8/31/2022 at 3:16 PM, Curt said:

In this case, the poster who got “chastised” isn’t an unwelcome newcomer though.  Buffanil posts here just about as much as anyone and has for quite a while.  He get flack, not because he is new, but for being consistently negative, rightly or wrongly.

I’ve noticed, There are a couple other posters who are equally, if not more negative, consistently too. And they don’t get nearly the flack that other posters get.  Or it’s ignored. Or it’s “well that’s just him”.
Hmmmm I wonder why that is. 

[Zamboni]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don’t think so.

The contract doesn’t kick in until 23/24. If it were in effect this year, it would rank Tage 29th among centres. Last year, Tage ranked 8th among centres in goals, 23rd in points.

I’d say good value exists as long as he is statistically producing, say, 25th to 40th among NHL centres. Based on last year’s totals, 27 goals and 64 points is fair value.

But the point of this deal for the Sabres is that as salaries rise around the league, Tage’s will not. Many players will pass him. In 3 or 4 years, he may only need to rank 40-50th statistically to be at fair value, and at the end of the deal, assuming the cap behaves like it usually does, that may be 60-75th.

Great data. And great points. I wonder how this will be dismissed, glossed over, ignored, blown off, or otherwise rejected outright. 🤔

[Curt]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

So basically Tage has to match the performance(s) of players like Landeskog, Connor, Barzal, Nylander, Reinhart (maybe skip that one) and such for this to be good value. Is that a fair statement?

If he's about a point a game guy it's a win but if it's less, how much less determines how much he's overpaid. Reasonable?

Unless of course he brings new intangibles like he beats up thugs from the Sabres uh other team or something. Value you can't really measure statistically.

We shall see. 

I can’t full agree that he needs to be point per game to avoid being overpaid.

As a general rule of thumb, a point is worth about $120k of contract value.  So I’d say he needs to be about a 60 point player, not a point per game guy, in order to “earn” his contract.

A few years down the road, after the cap goes up, it will probably be more like 50 points as a break even.

If Thompson averages 55 points per season over the life of the contract, I’d call that a definite win.