Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #26 Rasmus Dahlin

[bob_sauve28]

 

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Fully on board with optimists here.

Dahlin will be a legit 1D for a full season and as the year goes on the league will start to realize it.

This has already happened. 

This was optimism when I was doing it. 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

Funny, that

On 9/22/2021 at 9:50 AM, Thorny said:

Wanted LT. Disappointed with this. Not like it's a bargain for the next 3. 

Sets up another Reinhart situation if we don't become good in these 3 years

Luckily it seems we are trending in a direction where we don’t lose him ala Reino but, it was still a missed opportunity. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Funny, that

Luckily it seems we are trending in a direction where we don’t lose him ala Reino but, it was still a missed opportunity. 

Thompson, and Adams comments in the wake of it, leads me to believe a Dahlin extension will be a priority for him next summer.

Dahlin’s conduct leads me to believe it will get done, but if he has the season most of us suspect it won’t be cheap.

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thompson, and Adams comments in the wake of it, leads me to believe a Dahlin extension will be a priority for him next summer.

Dahlin’s conduct leads me to believe it will get done, but if he has the season most of us suspect it won’t be cheap.

Like I said, missed opportunity.

Maybe the Thompson deal is Adams’ reprieve 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Like I said, missed opportunity.

Maybe the Thompson deal is Adams’ reprieve 

Oh yeah, generally agree.

could have had him from 22-28 for what $8ish? (Heiskanen Chabot Hughes)

The plus is we should get Rasmus until 31 now, but those 25-29 years are going to cost more than they would have. Probably $10 given the leverage he’s going to have.

[Curt]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thompson, and Adams comments in the wake of it, leads me to believe a Dahlin extension will be a priority for him next summer.

Dahlin’s conduct leads me to believe it will get done, but if he has the season most of us suspect it won’t be cheap.

Definitely won’t be cheap.  Looking at $9M+ most likely. 

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Oh yeah, generally agree.

could have had him from 22-28 for what $8ish? (Heiskanen Chabot Hughes)

The plus is we should get Rasmus until 31 now, but those 25-29 years are going to cost more than they would have. Probably $10 given the leverage he’s going to have.

Second likely plus, though definitely not a given, is that Dahlin will likely still be a good player on the contract after this next one.  (He fits the type to have a better chance than most to play into his late 30's or even 40's.)  That age 31 contract will likely be bad but not horribly so and at 38 the AAV will be down from an age 36 contract.  That age 36 one would likely be a killer.

Looking at the SERIOUS long game.  😉

 

[nfreeman]

Well, $9MM+ per year next summer means that Dahlin would've just finished a huge season in which he made it clear that he's going to be an elite defenseman for the length of the contract.  So it's not all bad.

[thewookie1]

If his Defensive play continues to improve and he puts up 50+ pts, I’ll take the 9.5mil contract to him personally.

Ideally you want to keep everyone under 10mil seeing as no one has won a Cup and only Price made a finals with a 10mil + cap hit.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

15 hours ago, Thorny said:

Like I said, missed opportunity.

Maybe the Thompson deal is Adams’ reprieve 

I have always said I would have preferred a max term deal for Rasmus and not bridge.

Could have had him for 8 at $8 or a bit less.

Now it will be 8 at $10+ this next offseason.  And he will still be in his prime at around 30 at the end of that contract.  What then??????  With luck the Sabres will have a few cups to their credit by that time.

I hope the 3 years don't come back to bite the Sabres.

At least the Sabres did not jerk him around while they stank like they did Samson.  The team is playing better and Rasmus is likely to want to stay so the Sabres have that going for them.

What is an elite #1D going to cost this coming summer?  At least the huge jump in cap will not be happening for a few years or so it seems.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Sabres Fan in NS
more goodly ...

[Wyldnwoody44]

How about the option where he's injured for the year... Knee on knee and ACL tear. 

He comes back for the playoffs on a mission and wins the Conn Smythe. 

[Zamboni]

48 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

How about the option where he's injured for the year... Knee on knee and ACL tear. 

He comes back for the playoffs on a mission and wins the Conn Smythe. 

[Thorny]

18 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, $9MM+ per year next summer means that Dahlin would've just finished a huge season in which he made it clear that he's going to be an elite defenseman for the length of the contract.  So it's not all bad.

It’s not all bad, but for many of the reasons the Thompson deal is being overwhelmingly praised, this deal misses/missed the mark. 

Dahlin has ALL the leverage. He can arbitration award his way to UFA. we could lose him, or it could necessitate that we trade him. It’s Reinhart all over again. We can keep him, if he wants to stay, but he can ask for whatever he wants and we’d need to pay it.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s not all bad, but for many of the reasons the Thompson deal is being overwhelmingly praised, this deal misses/missed the mark. 

Dahlin has ALL the leverage. He can arbitration award his way to UFA. we could lose him, or it could necessitate that we trade him. It’s Reinhart all over again. We can keep him, if he wants to stay, but he can ask for whatever he wants and we’d need to pay it.

The damage is done.  Have to try to look at the remaining bright sides of this course.

And it isn't Reinhart all over again unless the Pegulas are fearing being extremely cash poor.  Expect both Reinhart & Ullmark would've been offered LT deals in '20 except for the fact that nobody had any idea if there would be any hockey nor what the world would look like in a few months.

This ONLY begins to be a Sammy redux if they don't negotiate in good faith this coming summer.  Can't see any realistic possibility of that happening.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

The damage is done.  Have to try to look at the remaining bright sides of this course.

And it isn't Reinhart all over again unless the Pegulas are fearing being extremely cash poor.  Expect both Reinhart & Ullmark would've been offered LT deals in '20 except for the fact that nobody had any idea if there would be any hockey nor what the world would look like in a few months.

This ONLY begins to be a Sammy redux if they don't negotiate in good faith this coming summer.  Can't see any realistic possibility of that happening.

It’s already the Reinhart situation. I’m not referring to the outcome specifically, but rather the current situation we find ourselves in with the player. IF Dahlin wants to, he can accept a 1-year arb award after this year and head straight to UFA. That was the reality the moment we signed him to a deal that took him to 1-year out from UFA. 

Thompson was in the same situation, until we rectified that unseemly ground by smartly extending him this summer. We haven’t extended Dahlin this summer - depending on Rasmus’s preferences for negotiating in season, he can now approach the arbitration route next summer if he so chooses, in a situation where the award takes him directly to UFA. This is the “Reinhart” situation his current deal set up. 

I’m not saying Dahlin effectively forces a deal like Reinhart did, merely that it’s a possibility, and that if, best case scenario, everyone keeps up appearances and we get a player and team both looking to find a union, Dahlin still can and likely will ask for a ton of $ as he has all the leverage now. Just like we could have paid Reinhart an inordinate amount and kept him, just like you mentioned.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

It’s already the Reinhart situation. I’m not referring to the outcome specifically, but rather the current situation we find ourselves in with the player. IF Dahlin wants to, he can accept a 1-year arb award after this year and head straight to UFA. That was the reality the moment we signed him to a deal that took him to 1-year out from UFA. 

Thompson was in the same situation, until we rectified that unseemly ground by smartly extending him this summer. We haven’t extended Dahlin this summer - depending on Rasmus’s preferences for negotiating in season, he can now approach the arbitration route next summer if he so chooses, in a situation where the award takes him directly to UFA. This is the “Reinhart” situation his current deal set up. 

I’m not saying Dahlin effectively forces a deal like Reinhart did, merely that it’s a possibility, and that if, best case scenario, everyone keeps up appearances and we get a player and team both looking to find a union, Dahlin still can and likely will ask for a ton of $ as he has all the leverage now. Just like we could have paid Reinhart an inordinate amount and kept him, just like you mentioned.

No, he can't.  His current contract is valid for TWO years, not 1.  He needs to wait 2 years to go arbitration.  You honestly believe he can't get a deal worked out this next off-season?

[Norcal]

56 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s already the Reinhart situation. I’m not referring to the outcome specifically, but rather the current situation we find ourselves in with the player. IF Dahlin wants to, he can accept a 1-year arb award after this year and head straight to UFA. That was the reality the moment we signed him to a deal that took him to 1-year out from UFA. 

Thompson was in the same situation, until we rectified that unseemly ground by smartly extending him this summer. We haven’t extended Dahlin this summer - depending on Rasmus’s preferences for negotiating in season, he can now approach the arbitration route next summer if he so chooses, in a situation where the award takes him directly to UFA. This is the “Reinhart” situation his current deal set up. 

I’m not saying Dahlin effectively forces a deal like Reinhart did, merely that it’s a possibility, and that if, best case scenario, everyone keeps up appearances and we get a player and team both looking to find a union, Dahlin still can and likely will ask for a ton of $ as he has all the leverage now. Just like we could have paid Reinhart an inordinate amount and kept him, just like you mentioned.

This is Dahlins team.

He isn't going anywhere but to the playoffs and Stanley Cup final in a few years with the Buffalo Sabres.

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, Norcal said:

This is Dahlins team.

If this season (for Dahlin and the Sabres) happens the way we hope, this may make the negotiations easier than they could be. That’s because it may influence Ras to set the bar in a Hedman fashion, rather than a Tkachuk fashion.

Because he absolutely has the hammer if he chooses to exercise it.

[Thorny]

39 minutes ago, Norcal said:

This is Dahlins team.

He isn't going anywhere but to the playoffs and Stanley Cup final in a few years with the Buffalo Sabres.

/thread 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

No, he can't.  His current contract is valid for TWO years, not 1.  He needs to wait 2 years to go arbitration.  You honestly believe he can't get a deal worked out this next off-season?

Again, it comes to the same thing: the ending of the deal puts him an arbitration award from UFA. That is what I was referring to from the beginning ala “Reinhart situation”. Until he’s on a different deal, that’s the reality. This isn’t revisionist history, I quoted the post in which I shared this opinion at the time of the deal.

We were able to lock, say, Tage in at a good deal before he commanded a truly high price, that ship has sailed with Dahlin. He was our best player and MVP last season already, finished higher for D points than Tage did forward points, and when we do eventually lock him up his body of work will be significantly larger than Tage’s. 

VAN locked up Hughes for 7.85 on a LT deal. That’s already in the distant rear-view for Dahlin. 

[Thorny]

It’s not the end of the world, while it’s possible he forces an exit (we must, by now, know this is possible) I think it much more likely we lock him up. But his LT contract simply won’t be one of those “value” deals I/others mention that teams need to find success: we’ll have to find those in other spots. Tage could potentially be a good start.

It’s always about choosing which guys to bet on, that’s the hard part. I’m just not gonna sit here and talk out one side of my mouth about why I like the Tage deal so much and the other side about Dahlin’s actually being good when by the same parameters it falls short.

Giving Dahlin a LT deal would have been the right move, but they took the wait and see approach. In the case of Tage, they made a bigger bet, and I think it pays off.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Thorny

[Rasmus_]

My predicter is 14 goals, 52 assists.