Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #25 Owen Power

[dudacek]

A year ago, Sabrespace greeted the 4th 1st-overall pick in team history with a collective shrug; Dulled by 10 years of losing and a handful of failed saviours,  the board was ready to accept the (non?)-hype of Power as a non-elite player in a weak draft year.

Then the big kid spent the past year trying to change minds. Instead of the mediocre offensive producer he was billed as, Power put up 32 points in 33 college games, matching the U20 totals of recent college studs like Fox, Werenski, Hughes and Makar. He complimented that by delivering poise without the puck and earning the trust of his coaches in all situations.

He added 5 points, included a hat-trick, in just 2 games at the pandemic-cancelled WJC, played for Team Canada in the Beijing Olympics, scored twice while averaging 22 minutes in all situations over an 8-game NHL debut, and put himself at or near the top of most “best prospect in the world” lists.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=217120

Power enters the season already pencilled into the Sabres top 4, but without the weight of the world on his shoulders with Rasmus Dahlin tagged to be “the guy.”

What do you expect from Owen Power?

(Last year’s takes here):

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

The expectation is ~40 points.  Went w/ the higher of the 2 brackets including it.

But expect him to be "firmly in the conversation for the Calder" because in addition to scoring at a very good clip for a rookie, he is going to demonstrate an all around 200' game and will be on the ice w/ Dahlin in the final minute of games they need a goal.  He'll also eventually get a fair amount of PK time though perhaps not too much initially.  (Expecting him to start out as the 5th choice, but bump up to 4th.)

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The expectation is ~40 points.  Went w/ the higher of the 2 brackets including it.

But expect him to be "firmly in the conversation for the Calder" because in addition to scoring at a very good clip for a rookie, he is going to demonstrate an all around 200' game and will be on the ice w/ Dahlin in the final minute of games they need a goal.  He'll also eventually get a fair amount of PK time though perhaps not too much initially.  (Expecting him to start out as the 5th choice, but bump up to 4th.)

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Top 4 PK TOI in the first half of the year

• Pysyk 97:36
• Hagg 77:21
• Jokiharju 54:03
• Bryson 46:27

And in the second

• Samuelsson 82:51
• Jokiharju 67:28
• Fitzgerald 40:45
• Dahlin 40:07

That's a pretty significant shift, and then you consider Lyubushkin is likely to get minutes this year, along with Power being brought in to the mix.

Hagg, Fitzgerald, Samuelsson and Pysyk (in that order) had the lowest PP goals against per 60 of the regulars. Power had only 20 minutes of PK time, but his PP GA/60 was better than all of theirs. Luyubushkin's PK numbers were mediocre in Arizona and bad in Toronto.

Edited August 26, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Top 4 PK TOI in the first half of the year

• Pysyk 97:36
• Hagg 77:21
• Jokiharju 54:03
• Bryson 46:27

And in the second

• Samuelsson 82:51
• Jokiharju 67:28
• Fitzgerald 40:45
• Dahlin 40:07

That's a pretty significant shift, and then you consider Lyubushkin is likely to get minutes this year, along with Power being brought in to the mix.

Hagg, Fitzgerald, Samuelsson and Pysyk (in that order) had the lowest PP goals against per 60 of the regulars. Power had only 20 minutes of PK time, but his PP GA/60 was better than all of theirs. Luyubushkin's PK numbers were mediocre in Arizona and bad in Toronto.

Expecting they'll go: Samuelsson, Jokiharju, Dahlin, & then Lyubushkin with Power 5th to start the year.  With Power flipping with Lyubo sometime mid-season.

Even though Lyubushkin is better than Jokiharju at 5v5 defending, Henri is very good at the PK.  Expect that's because of the added structure required to effectively work a PK.

(PS - Disliking Henri playing with either Dahlin or Power has nothing to do w/ disliking Henri.  It's entirely because there are better options for those 2 to play with.)

[dudacek]

Power’s range combined with his brain could eventually make him elite on the PK.

I mean, his tools are everything you want in that role.

Im wondering if he might get a lot of PK time even early, given Donnie’s propensity for letting the kids learn by doing.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Power’s range combined with his brain could eventually make him elite on the PK.

I mean, his tools are everything you want in that role.

Im wondering if he might get a lot of PK time even early, given Donnie’s propensity for letting the kids learn by doing.

It's very possible that he is 4 from the get go.  But don't see any of the top 3 getting bumped out initially & expect that they'd pencil in their "defensive defenseman" pick up in the top 4 PKers initially and make Power earn the bump up so expect him to be 5 initially.

Remember, Dahlin didn't become a go to guy on the PK until after the AS break.  They get to learn by doing, but they still have to earn that opportunity.  (And, expect Power will force his way into the PK rotation sooner than later but not on day 1.)

Edited August 26, 2022 by Taro T

[bob_sauve28]

He's going to be a good one! 

 

Charlie MacAvoy was really good at a young age, so will Power

 

Can't wait for the season to begin 

[dudacek]

I think the only role Power gets in the Calder conversation is when a random Sabre fan says “I can’t believe no one is talking about Power for the Calder.”

I don’t think he will be on enough highlight films, or produce enough points, especially early, to force himself into the national spotlight. Dahlin will make sure of that.

I do think we will notice earlier than the rest of the world how good he is and by the end of the year his name might start to get trendy.

He’s eventually going to be a combination of prime Brian Campbell in the offensive zone and prime Hank Tallinder in the defensive, and that should be an all-star in anybody’s book.

Don’t expect too much too soon, but this is not going to be a painfully slow process.This kid is a fast learner and physically NHL-ready. We will be seeing signs of it by the end of this year.

Edited August 26, 2022 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

Probably only about 30 points unless Dahlin is injured and Power has to take over PP1. But the page has been turned, the new age is upon us. 
I’m not saying the Sabres will be a positive goal differential team this season. You need good goaltending for that. But I am standing by my original prognostication: Uncle Owen Unlimited Power will be a career positive +/- for the Sabres and it continues and his buffer grows this season. 

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the only role Power gets in the Calder conversation is when a random Sabre fan says “I can’t believe no one is talking about Power for the Calder.”

I don’t think he will be on enough highlight films, or produce enough points, especially early, to force himself into the national spotlight. Dahlin will make sure of that.

I do think we will notice earlier than the rest of the world how good he is and by the end of the year his name might start to get trendy.

He’s eventually going to be a combination of prime Brian Campbell in the offensive zone and prime Hank Tallinder in the defensive, and that should be an all-star in anybody’s book.

Don’t expect too much too soon, but this is not going to be a painfully slow process.This kid is a fast learner and physically NHL-ready. We will be seeing signs of it by the end of this year.

Telegenic Canadian kid chosen 1st overall 2 years ago who has been top 4 on tournament teams in the WJCs, WCs, & Olympics playing on an improving Eastern Conference team.  He'll be in the discussion & by the end of the year he'll be firmly in the discussion.

[Buffalonill]

 Moved around alot to get comfortable with 15 - 20 point year 

[GASabresIUFAN]

A Hedman like rookie season.

[Zamboni]

Will he EARN the nickname “big hurt”, or “high tower” or “Tyler Myers 2.0”?

😂

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Will he EARN the nickname “big hurt”, or “high tower” or “Tyler Myers 2.0”?

😂

Owen Hightower of Power (of Oldtown)

[PerreaultForever]

I think he will get quite a few points because I think they will do that learn on the go thing and give him lots of ice time. He will however, also make a lot of defensive mistakes and be a minus player. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think he will get quite a few points because I think they will do that learn on the go thing and give him lots of ice time. He will however, also make a lot of defensive mistakes and be a minus player. 

Idk, I think he might be pretty good defensively

[PerreaultForever]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Idk, I think he might be pretty good defensively

I'm not saying he will be awful all the time, but as a kid I expect him to have ups and downs and there will be games where he completely comes apart, much like Dahlin did. The question will be does he learn and bounce back quickly or does he lose confidence and fall into long ruts. 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not saying he will be awful all the time, but as a kid I expect him to have ups and downs and there will be games where he completely comes apart, much like Dahlin did. The question will be does he learn and bounce back quickly or does he lose confidence and fall into long ruts. 

I don't think it will be anything like Dahlin. 

[PerreaultForever]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think it will be anything like Dahlin. 

I'm not saying like Dahlin on a day to day basis, just in that way rookies can have bad stretches. Power plays a completely different style. 

[Eleven]

I'll go middle-of-the-road with Power.  I think he might become the best Sabres defenseman since Schony, but I'll give him a break his first full year.

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not saying like Dahlin on a day to day basis, just in that way rookies can have bad stretches. Power plays a completely different style. 

I understood. I don't think he'll have the stretches of valleys in his play that Dahlin had. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I understood. I don't think he'll have the stretches of valleys in his play that Dahlin had. 

Agreed. I think he’s less competitive, but more confident than Dahlin, or maybe a better way of saying it is less emotional, more calm?

I expect his game to be a lot more even. It won’t be the egregious errors that people will complain about with Power, it will be them wanting to see more fire.

[Zamboni]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agreed. I think he’s less competitive, but more confident than Dahlin, or maybe a better way of saying it is less emotional, more calm?

I expect his game to be a lot more even. It won’t be the egregious errors that people will complain about with Power, it will be them wanting to see more fire.

The first couple years Dahlin was in the league… he didn’t have a whole lot of fire, or physicality. Then like a lightbulb went off… That stuff came to the forefront this past season. thanks in part to Granato. 
 

Who knows… Power may have A similar trajectory. He may find that his size and smarts can really get the best of a lot of players in the league. 

[French Collection]

Power’s offense often comes from joining the rush or vacating the point. This will cause some odd man rushes the other way but if he picks his spots well and forwards cover for him there will be more GF than GA.

He skates well and obviously has tons of reach so getting back in the play will happen too.

Because of limited PP time I don’t think he will have a Seider like season, but I think he can put up 40 points. Because of his 1OA status he will be in the ROY conversation.Some great work on special teams will help him gain some favourable reviews.

[dudacek]

Easily the most interesting poll so far: no consensus here whatsoever