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Eastern Conference Semifinals: Ottawa (1) vs. Buffalo (4)


Eleven

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ut the key to the Sens this year is just that - with a 20 goal scorer on each line their depth is tops in the league

 

 

Gaustad and Grier are the only two non 15 goal scoring forwards we had this year... And the 4 players that just missed 20, are Connolly, Pominville, Roy, and Hecht... all of which weren't in the lineup for at least 12 games this year. A 20 goal scorer on each line isn't hard to find on either team.

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On the sens Vaclav Varada, Chris Kelly, Martin Havlat, and Tyler Arnason were the only non 15 goal scorers. Havlat would have been atleast a 30 goal scorer, and Arnason only played a handful of games on a team that actually had skill. So as far as technicalities go - we only had two forwards to not reach the 15 goals plateau as well.

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On the sens Vaclav Varada, Chris Kelly, Martin Havlat, and Tyler Arnason were the only non 15 goal scorers. Havlat would have been atleast a 30 goal scorer, and Arnason only played a handful of games on a team that actually had skill. So as far as technicalities go - we only had two forwards to not reach the 15 goals plateau as well.

 

So what we're all saying is that anyone on either team can score...

 

Well, good.

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Any word at all on Jochen Hecht? Even a rumor would be nice. What a difference this incredible two-way player could make. Anyone else get the feeling Paul Gaustad is going to make a name for himself in the next couple of weeks?

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On the sens Vaclav Varada, Chris Kelly, Martin Havlat, and Tyler Arnason were the only non 15 goal scorers. Havlat would have been atleast a 30 goal scorer, and Arnason only played a handful of games on a team that actually had skill. So as far as technicalities go - we only had two forwards to not reach the 15 goals plateau as well.

Arnason had 0 goals in 19 games with the Sens. That's with 42 SOG. And when mentioning technicalities, you don't include people that didn't make it, because technically they did not. Realistically, on the other hand, Havlat would definitely have made 30 goals. Arnason, however, did not make a single goal in the regular season for the Sens.

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And that is why Arnason is watching from the Box. He is great in close but just couldn't find that scoring touch we were looking for so when Marty came back, Arnie got scratched.

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My pick...

 

What has separated the two teams over the course of almost 90 games? Three stinkin? points. Why Ottawa is a strong favorite here perplexes me. But it?s fine. The expectation that the Senators will win, the pressure of much of Canada bearing down on them, will get to Ottawa, a franchise that has a long history of choking in the playoffs. The Sabres? They?re excited to be there. It?s all gravy now. The nervousness left this team in Game 4 in Philly, for good. They?re underdogs, which is fine with them.

 

Matchups we win: Miller vs. Emery. Ruff vs. Murray, who hasn?t won much in his coaching career, as far as I know. The rest of the matchups are close, with some of them even favoring Ottawa a bit. But when you win the goaltending and coaching matchups, that?s enough.

 

If I hadn?t seen an incredible display of defense against Philly, if I had seen the turnovers that plagued the team late in the regular season, I would pick Ottawa in five. Instead, it?s the Sabres in six. You can take it to the bank, HSBC or Scotiabank.

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Matchups we win: Miller vs. Emery. Ruff vs. Murray, who hasn?t won much in his coaching career, as far as I know. The rest of the matchups are close, with some of them even favoring Ottawa a bit. But when you win the goaltending and coaching matchups, that?s enough.

 

How does Ruff have a distinct coaching advantage??? Also - The buffalo advantage in goal isnt Emery Vs Miller. its the backups - morrison is not very good, and biron is alright. Have fun with your Sabre-shaded-goggles.

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My pick...

 

What has separated the two teams over the course of almost 90 games? Three stinkin? points. Why Ottawa is a strong favorite here perplexes me. But it?s fine. The expectation that the Senators will win, the pressure of much of Canada bearing down on them, will get to Ottawa, a franchise that has a long history of choking in the playoffs. The Sabres? They?re excited to be there. It?s all gravy now. The nervousness left this team in Game 4 in Philly, for good. They?re underdogs, which is fine with them.

 

Matchups we win: Miller vs. Emery. Ruff vs. Murray, who hasn?t won much in his coaching career, as far as I know. The rest of the matchups are close, with some of them even favoring Ottawa a bit. But when you win the goaltending and coaching matchups, that?s enough.

 

If I hadn?t seen an incredible display of defense against Philly, if I had seen the turnovers that plagued the team late in the regular season, I would pick Ottawa in five. Instead, it?s the Sabres in six. You can take it to the bank, HSBC or Scotiabank.

I hope you are right.

 

I definitely think the Sabres can compete w/ Ottawa. IF the Sabres win, it will come down to the 2 items you mentioned plus special teams and intangibles.

 

Ottawa beat TB in large part because TB couldn't handle Ottawa's powerplay. Buffalo has much better pk units than TB did and much better goaltending. I don't see Ottawa's powerplay beating the Sabres in the same manner. I am concerned about the Sabres giving up short handed goals this series. IF the Sabres can hold the Sens to 2 or fewer SHG's, the Sabres could be in real good shape.

 

The intangibles I mentioned are, can Ottawa get over the mental hump of winning a tough playoff series and will Ottawa have any rust built up from their extended layoff? If the answers are NO and YES, the Sabres WILL win the series.

 

The additional intangible is scheduling. Buffalo is coming in off 2 days rest so they should be pretty much ready to go. They will get an additional 2 days rest, so if the Sabres can win this game, Ottawa will have a chance to doubt themselves for one extra day. If the Sabres lose, it will give Lindy one extra day to outcoach Murray and prepare for Monday. I don't think a loss to Ottawa tonight dooms the Sabres as they are realistically shooting for a split. A loss tonight by Ottawa doesn't bury them, but definitely gives the Sabres a psychological advantage.

 

The back to back games in Buffalo benefits the Sabres more as they are in familiar surrounding and should be more prepared for the 2nd game. (What a load of BS, but that's my story and I am sticking to it.)

 

Heck, I'm starting to go with my heart more than my head. The Sabres really COULD pull this off.

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How does Ruff have a distinct coaching advantage??? Also - The buffalo advantage in goal isnt Emery Vs Miller. its the backups - morrison is not very good, and biron is alright. Have fun with your Sabre-shaded-goggles.

 

Um right. I would give Ottawa the slight edge in most departments, but I give the Sabres a slight edge in:

 

Depth (while Ottawa has players on their third and 4th line that produce, I think the Sabres have more of them).

Goaltending (Emery has a better defense, despite that Miller put up a better regular season save %. If you want to talk about playoff numbers, do the math. I am not one to not count goals that someone gave up, but Miller had what was pretty much an empty netter counted against him because he was not on the bench yet. Take that away, their SV%'s are identical).

Coaching (On paper the Sens are a much better team than the Sabres, but Ruff has the whole equaling a lot more than the sum of it's parts. Add in the Sabres special teams, and I would give Ruff a slight edge).

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Well, about 3 hours until gametime, and I still feel like tonight is the Sabres' night.

 

This series will come down to special teams performance more so than any other factor. These teams are simply too closely matched in every other area, though Ottawa has a distint edge in defence and "name players".

 

If Ottawa's superstars play like superstars, this will be a different type of seires...maybe the Sens will take it in 5. However, if Buffalo is able to not completely shut down Ottawa' s big guns, but at least contain them, Buffalo will give itself a chance.

 

I think the great part is that this series eventually will be decided by whichever team wants it more. These teams are evenly matched enough that it'll eventually come down to pure desire.

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What has Bryan Murray ever won? Wait... he was coach of the year during the first Reagan Administration.

 

I really think this is the mindset the Sabres need. Respect your opponent, but not too much. WTF have the Senators done to justify this mythology that surrounds them? They were big favorites back in 99, too. I don't sense a whole helluva lot has changed since then.

 

Yeah, put me in Lindy! I'm ready to play!

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