Did the Buffalo Sabres improve between opening night 2021 to opening night 2022?

[LGR4GM]

Okay, so this thread came about because for awhile now there has been a perception that the team did not improve that much. This really stems from not going all out in UFA like say the Red Wings. The easiest way to do this is to compare who made the starting roster in 2021 and who we think will make it in 2022. 

So I found the opening night lineup for 2021 and I will be predicting the opening night lineup for 2022 based on Capfriendly. NOTE! These are not direct player comparisons, so I am not saying Krebs took over for Caggiula specifically just in the general sense these are the guys who got replaced who came into the lineup.

Forwards

The Splits 2021 - - - 2022

Rasmus Asplund - - Rasmus Asplund

Anders Bjork - - Ander Bjork

Drake Caggiula - - Peyton Krebs

Dylan Cozens - - Dylan Cozens

Cody Eakin - - JJ Peterka

Zemgus Girgensons - - Zemgus Girgensons

John Hayden  - - Alex Tuch

Vinnie Hinostroza - -  Vinnie Hinostroza

Casey Mittelstadt - - Casey Mitts

Kyle Okposo - Kyle Okposo

Arttu Ruotsalainen - - Jack Quinn

Jeff Skinner - - Jeff Skinner

Tage Thompson - - Tage Thompson

Not in the lineup but obviously on the team, Victor Olofsson, who I will not count for this exercise. I think he had a minor injury to start the season and so wasn't in the opening lineup. 

Defense

Will Butcher - - Owen Power

Jacob Bryson - - Jacob Bryson

Rasmus Dahlin - - Rasmus Dahlin (but the Frolunda version not the Krueger knockoff)

Robert Hagg - - Ilya Lyubushkin

Henri Jokiharju - - Henri Jokiharju

Colin Miller - - Mattias Samuelsson

Mark Pysyk - - Casey Fitzgerlad or perhaps Lawrence Pilut

Goaltenders

Craig Anderson - - Anderson

Dustin Tokarski - - Eric Comrie

All told that means we saw 4 forwards, 4 defenders, and 1 goalie leave and be replaced by someone else between the start of last season and the beginning of this one. Out were forwards Eakin, Caggiula, Hayden, Ruotsalianen and in are Tuch, Krebs, Quinn, and JJP (yes ik that Sheahan is also around). Note that Olofsson I am not counting because he was on the roster for the majority of the season anyways. On defense we saw Hagg, Miller, Pysyk, and Butcher replaced with Power, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, and Fitzgerald. Goalie we went from the Toker to Comrie. 

After completing this exercise I do wish we had gotten a forward upgrade of some kind to replace Bjork. I think the defense surprised me a little with the names that have fallen away and the level of their replacements. Power is better than any of the guys gone. Samuelsson is too. Lyubushkin I think could be in his role better than anyone he replaces. Fitzgerald I am not sold on and here again I almost want another replacement, someone that is maybe 26-28 that we can sign for 2-3 years. 

Anyways, what do we think of the upgrades that occurred between opening night 2021 and what will probably be opening night 2022?

Edited August 20, 2022 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Really quick just want to add, I know that the opening night roster is not the perfect way to evaluate this but it is the easiest starting point. I tried to make sure the players included played more than a couple of games as well, hence why I noted Olofsson not being the lineup but obviously being on the team.

[triumph_communes]

The offense was fine and it improved. Young kids all +1, only Okposo/Girgensons on downward trend. The defense was overhauled and got better everywhere but the 7D. We may have a capable starter who only needs to be average to make a 20ptn difference in the standings for us. 

[Weave]

Point 1, you can’t compare opening night rosters until we’ve seen THIS opening night roster.  And I think a better faith discussion would be around end of last season vs. start of this season.
 

Point 2, the only certain improvements are Looby, Mule and Tuch.  The rest are “ show me”. And Mule and Tuch are not newcomers so we know what the roster is like with them.

I see small improvement for certain, anything more than that requires faith.

[kas23]

I think Power gets the benefit of the doubt of being better than Will Butcher. I also think Comrie, who has NHL experience, is better than Toker. How much better, I don’t know. 

[dudacek]

I think basic math says one should be skeptical of the late-career bounce backs of Anderson and Okposo and expect some regression there.

Personally, I don’t think that should apply to Skinner, but he has put together back-to-back 50-point-plus seasons just once in his career.

Thompson, Dahlin and Jokiharju were last year’s young breakout players. At this point of their careers, that means leaps and fallbacks are still possible, but generally we should expect what we got.

Internal improvement seems likely from Olofsson, Mitts and Cozens, given their experience level and what we’ve seen from them to date.

Comrie should be better than Tokarski.

Tuch Peterka Quinn Krebs is a gigantic leap in talent over Hayden R2 Caggiula Eakin mitigated only by the drop in experience.

Butcher Miller Hagg to Power Samuelsson Lyubushkin makes the blueline better in every aspect of the game.

I think it’s indisputable the team is better than the start of last year. 

 

[French Collection]

The defense is much better with Power, Mule and Boosh.

I am optimistic that Comrie will be good (middle of the pack), so the goaltending improved.

The young forwards are improved and the rookie additions are better than the JAGs leaving. I don’t think Bjork makes the team so Sheahan could be his replacement.

To @Weave point, we have seen some of these additions play half a season or more. The second half was with a few of these ‘adds’ so there is definitely an improvement there.

In blending the ‘21 opening roster with the season ending roster I get a look more like:

Peterka for R2, Quinn for Hayden, Sheahan for Eakin and Krebs for Caggiula. 
Power for Miller, Boosh for Pysyk, Pilut for Butcher and Fitz for Hagg.

Comrie for Toker.

It’s a better team.

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, Weave said:

Point 1, you can’t compare opening night rosters until we’ve seen THIS opening night roster.  And I think a better faith discussion would be around end of last season vs. start of this season.
 

Point 2, the only certain improvements are Looby, Mule and Tuch.  The rest are “ show me”. And Mule and Tuch are not newcomers so we know what the roster is like with them.

I see small improvement for certain, anything more than that requires faith.

It's a cross sectional design so if you want to point 1 you can. 

[dudacek]

52 minutes ago, Weave said:

Point 1, you can’t compare opening night rosters until we’ve seen THIS opening night roster.  And I think a better faith discussion would be around end of last season vs. start of this season.
 

Point 2, the only certain improvements are Looby, Mule and Tuch.  The rest are “ show me”. And Mule and Tuch are not newcomers so we know what the roster is like with them.

I see small improvement for certain, anything more than that requires faith.

The Sabres 75-point team last year was a blend of a .400 team over the 1st 3rd of the season and a .600 team over the last 3rd of the season.

Those were significantly different rosters. 

If you choose to focus discussion on the end-of-season roster, then a small improvement might be all the team needs to challenge for the playoffs.

If, at the same time, you choose to discount the results over the final 3rd, then it’s not really a good faith discussion.

Edited August 20, 2022 by dudacek

[Weave]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres 75-point team last year was a blend of a .400 team over the 1st 3rd of the season and a .600 team over the last 3rd of the season.

Those were significantly different rosters. 

If you choose to focus discussion on the end-of-season roster, then a small improvement might be all the team needs to challenge for the playoffs.

If, at the same time, you choose to discount the results over the final 3rd, then it’s not really a good faith discussion.

I’m not discounting the 2nd half, I’m using it as a baseline.  Have we improved from there?  On D I think Looby brings certain improvement, although you have to consider Power may not be the adrenaline filled Power we saw in the last handful of games (remember Mitts at a PPG pace or something like that?).  At forward it is much more of a leap of faith to call it improved over the end of last season. We expect Quinn and JJP to bring more skill, but being rooks at the level, they could struggle mightily. Goalie is a crap shoot.

If the skill of the rooks translates better than the previous veteran NHL understanding then this team makes a 15 pt step over their end of season pace.  But it IS a leap of faith to expect that is how it plays out.

[GoPuckYourself]

First I'll start off by saying thank goodness we didn't get Patrick Kane and a bunch of other high priced free agents that will take a spot from a young player, I feel like this is the year we find our core players, move forward with those guys and then add in FA/ draft to fill in. I would have liked another veteran RHD if I'm being nit-pickish but I'm good where we are.

Now for the question did we improve? My answer is yes, in net Comrie, to go along with Anderson and UPL if needed provides a much more stable group imo. Comrie doesn't have a large sample of great play but was solid in his time given. Also we got better defensively with Lybushkin. Also imo another year of growth for Cozens, Thompson, Power, Jokiharu, Dahlin, Mittlestadt will most likely be noticable.

[LGR4GM]

36 minutes ago, Weave said:

I’m not discounting the 2nd half, I’m using it as a baseline.  Have we improved from there?  On D I think Looby brings certain improvement, although you have to consider Power may not be the adrenaline filled Power we saw in the last handful of games (remember Mitts at a PPG pace or something like that?).  At forward it is much more of a leap of faith to call it improved over the end of last season. We expect Quinn and JJP to bring more skill, but being rooks at the level, they could struggle mightily. Goalie is a crap shoot.

If the skill of the rooks translates better than the previous veteran NHL understanding then this team makes a 15 pt step over their end of season pace.  But it IS a leap of faith to expect that is how it plays out.

Do we need to improve from there to make the playoffs? 

I will say, I think Power getting 8 games is incredibly valuable for him to understand the level and work in the summer to be ready.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Okay, so this thread came about because for awhile now there has been a perception that the team did not improve that much. This really stems from not going all out in UFA like say the Red Wings. The easiest way to do this is to compare who made the starting roster in 2021 and who we think will make it in 2022. 

So I found the opening night lineup for 2021 and I will be predicting the opening night lineup for 2022 based on Capfriendly. NOTE! These are not direct player comparisons, so I am not saying Krebs took over for Caggiula specifically just in the general sense these are the guys who got replaced who came into the lineup.

Forwards

The Splits 2021 - - - 2022

Rasmus Asplund - - Rasmus Asplund

Anders Bjork - - Ander Bjork

Drake Caggiula - - Peyton Krebs

Dylan Cozens - - Dylan Cozens

Cody Eakin - - JJ Peterka

Zemgus Girgensons - - Zemgus Girgensons

John Hayden  - - Alex Tuch

Vinnie Hinostroza - -  Vinnie Hinostroza

Casey Mittelstadt - - Casey Mitts

Kyle Okposo - Kyle Okposo

Arttu Ruotsalainen - - Jack Quinn

Jeff Skinner - - Jeff Skinner

Tage Thompson - - Tage Thompson

Not in the lineup but obviously on the team, Victor Olofsson, who I will not count for this exercise. I think he had a minor injury to start the season and so wasn't in the opening lineup. 

Defense

Will Butcher - - Owen Power

Jacob Bryson - - Jacob Bryson

Rasmus Dahlin - - Rasmus Dahlin (but the Frolunda version not the Krueger knockoff)

Robert Hagg - - Ilya Lyubushkin

Henri Jokiharju - - Henri Jokiharju

Colin Miller - - Mattias Samuelsson

Mark Pysyk - - Casey Fitzgerlad or perhaps Lawrence Pilut

Goaltenders

Craig Anderson - - Anderson

Dustin Tokarski - - Eric Comrie

All told that means we saw 4 forwards, 4 defenders, and 1 goalie leave and be replaced by someone else between the start of last season and the beginning of this one. Out were forwards Eakin, Caggiula, Hayden, Ruotsalianen and in are Tuch, Krebs, Quinn, and JJP (yes ik that Sheahan is also around). Note that Olofsson I am not counting because he was on the roster for the majority of the season anyways. On defense we saw Hagg, Miller, Pysyk, and Butcher replaced with Power, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, and Fitzgerald. Goalie we went from the Toker to Comrie. 

After completing this exercise I do wish we had gotten a forward upgrade of some kind to replace Bjork. I think the defense surprised me a little with the names that have fallen away and the level of their replacements. Power is better than any of the guys gone. Samuelsson is too. Lyubushkin I think could be in his role better than anyone he replaces. Fitzgerald I am not sold on and here again I almost want another replacement, someone that is maybe 26-28 that we can sign for 2-3 years. 

Anyways, what do we think of the upgrades that occurred between opening night 2021 and what will probably be opening night 2022?

Most people would agree that the Sabres will enter next season with an improved roster. That isn't a difficult judgment to make. The bigger issue then becomes have the Sabres improved more than Ottawa, Columbus or Detroit (teams in our strata) did this offseason? And related to that issue is did the Sabres improve enough to make up the difference in talent with enough teams that were ranked ahead of us from the prior season? 

I fall into the optimistic camp with this franchise. However, I'm not sure if we have leaped ahead of enough teams this offseason to become a playoff team. I'm confident that this team will be vying for a playoff spot up to the end of the season. However, will that be good enough for us to end up in a playoff spot? I'm not sure?

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Do we need to improve from there to make the playoffs? .

I think we need to.

[PASabreFan]

No. No games have been played.

We really have forgotten what matters.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

No. No games have been played.

We really have forgotten what matters.

I guess you’re right,

But even when games are played and we show improvement, we seem to find ways to say that doesn’t matter either, so 🤷

[Marvin]

I think the team is more talented, but that is somewhat mitigated by several players being less experienced.

Comrie should be a big improvement over Tokarski.  Anderson will regress some more.  How wil we feel if, as I expect, Pekka-Lukkonen and even Subban get significant playing time?

If I compare the roster to the end of last season, Lyubushkin is an upgrade at 3RHD.  Quinn and Peterka are definite upgrades in talent, but their youth will mean increased mistakes as they learn the NHL game.

Overall, they have a sizable improvement in talent traded off with less experience.  They should be better overall in goal, but Anderson will continue to slide.

[inkman]

Goaltending was the Achilles heel last season.  If that is fixed (a big if), this is a much improved roster regardless of how the kids pan out.  If either UPL or Comrie can grab the reigns, this team will contend for the playoffs.  If we continue to get .880 save percentages, it’s gonna be a long year.  

[Thorny]

Improving over the roster we started with last year for game 1 should be easy considering Eichel wasn’t suited up, yet his return is counted in the roster for this year. 

As for whether we’ve improved as compared to the team that ended the year..have to wait to see once the games are being played. One of the most interesting questions for the upcoming year will be how much of that was the “real” Sabres and how much the record was befitted by playing in garbage time where the pressure was off for Buffalo. 

[PASabreFan]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I guess you’re right,

But even when games are played and we show improvement, we seem to find ways to say that doesn’t matter either, so 🤷

I must've been out of town when that happened.

Squishy non scientific evidence of improvement: when you can say, wow, NHL hockey has returned to Buffalo!

I'm not sure it's far off, but we're still a few minutes from Normal.

[Marvin]

26 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I must've been out of town when that happened.

Squishy non scientific evidence of improvement: when you can say, wow, NHL hockey has returned to Buffalo!

I'm not sure it's far off, but we're still a few minutes from Normal.

I can understand this metric.  I have moved from boredom to disgust to bemusement to not being bored to eventually being entertained most of the time.  When it gets to anticipating a game, I know normal is back.

[Mustache of God]

I'd also consider that the younger players (cozens, mitts, Asplund,Dahlin,samuelsson) should also be better than they were last year now that they have more experience and are growing into their bodies and are an improvement over their selves last year. This probably also applies to Thompson but I'm expecting regression from him, hopefully not though.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The answer is going to be simply yes.  This coming roster is certainly better then last year’s opening night and in general.  Sub replacement hockey players, like Caggiula, Hagg, Butcher, Eakin, Hayden, Pysyk, Tokarski and Miller, are gone.  They have been replaced by younger and more talented players.  Tuch, Power, Comrie, Samuelsson, Krebs, Lyubushkin, Quinn, JJP and even Bryson are superior to the guys who they replaced regardless of experience.  

The next question is will this translate in the standings given the strength of the Atlantic division and the aggressive off-seasons of teams like Ott, Det and Mon?  I think it will, but as others have said, goaltending will be the key.  If Comrie can give us Ullmark level goaltending then the team is destined to show significant improvement.

also @LGR4GM in the original post, I’d have listed Comrie as Anderson’s replacement as the No 1 goalie and Anderson as Tokarski’s replacement as the backup.  

Edited August 20, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

Looking at opening night is kind of a straw man argument since the Eichel trade hadn't happened yet. Or at least you have to list Eichel - Tuch rather than Hayden - Tuch since injured or not, he was still on the roster. 

Looking at closing night is more meaningful imo. You've added Lyubushkin and Comrie. Presumably Power plays the season but Quinn and Peterka are inferences and we have no idea if they will play and be good or not. We can just think they might and hope, but they are unproven commodities. 

The defense is slightly better, but imo this team is basically the same as it was end of last year and any improvement rests on young players like Cozens and Mitts being better and coming into their own. If they don't, we won't be any good at all. 

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Looking at opening night is kind of a straw man argument since the Eichel trade hadn't happened yet. Or at least you have to list Eichel - Tuch rather than Hayden - Tuch since injured or not, he was still on the roster. 

Looking at closing night is more meaningful imo. You've added Lyubushkin and Comrie. Presumably Power plays the season but Quinn and Peterka are inferences and we have no idea if they will play and be good or not. We can just think they might and hope, but they are unproven commodities. 

The defense is slightly better, but imo this team is basically the same as it was end of last year and any improvement rests on young players like Cozens and Mitts being better and coming into their own. If they don't, we won't be any good at all. 

It's not but it is a straw man to say so. 

You don't get that we're comparing start of the season not end. It's a straw man to look at the end of the season roster, use that seasons record, and then talk about this year.