Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #22 Jack Quinn

[dudacek]

Few would argue that over the past 30 years the two best forwards ever developed out of the Buffalo Sabres minor league system were Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville. Vanek played more than 1,000 NHL games and scored 373 goals. Pominville also had more than 1,000 games and put up over 700 points.

Vanek was an AHL rookie the year he turned 21, putting up 68 points in 74 games. Pominville was an AHL rookie the year he turned 20, putting up 34 points in 73 games.

Jack Quinn, as a 20-year-old AHL rookie, outskated mono and bum ankle to score 61 points in just 45 games. His 1.36 points per game is easily the best in the past 30 years by a U21 Amerk who played at least half a season. It’s also the best of any U21 AHL player in that period, even ahead of studs like Briere, Spezza and Couture.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=208510

While those numbers certainly have caught the attention of Sabres fans, they haven’t created a huge buzz with NHL prospect-watchers, who consistently seem to only grudgingly give Quinn a top-30 or even top-50 ranking, as opposed to the top-10 slot his numbers might suggest. A disappointing AHL playoff may have played a role.

As he prepares to try and earn a spot on this year’s Sabres team, he comes in riding an intriguing pattern: a nondescript 1st-year of junior, followed by a 50-goal year, followed by a nondescript introduction to Rochester, followed by last year’s explosion.

Vanek had 48 points in 81 games as an NHL rookie the year he turned 22. Pominville had 30 points in 57 games as an NHL rookie the year he turned 23.

What do you expect from Jack Quinn this year?

(Last year’s takes here):

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

I think Quinn makes the team out of camp on the 4th line and HCDG moves him around looking for the right center to mesh with. There will be ups and downs and lots of complaints about how easily he's knocked off the puck or pushed down to the ice like happens to all young players. But when the season ends, he'll have solidified himself on the powerplay, found a line (maybe an Asplund-Mitts-Quinn), and have a very bright future.

Probably only around 35 points, but with a minimum of 14 goals. Definitely -10 or worse, though. Other teams will get their scoring lines on the ice when he's out there.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Quinn contends for rookie of the year with 22g 28a 50 pts.  He'll be playing in our top 6 by mid season and blossom from there.

[Doohickie]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Quinn contends for rookie of the year with 22g 28a 50 pts.  He'll be playing in our top 6 by mid season and blossom from there.

That's a lotta Hopium coming from you sir.  I like it.

[7+6=13]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Quinn contends for rookie of the year with 22g 28a 50 pts.  He'll be playing in our top 6 by mid season and blossom from there.

Yeah but our goalie situation.....

[LGR4GM]

30g, 30a.

Go big or go home. 

[thewookie1]

My guess is that he's mediocre most the year. 15 to 20 goals and about the same in assists over 65 games. Next year however he'll take off.

His career can be summed up as this pattern.

Year 1 Juniors: Mediocre

Year 2 Juniors: Great

Year 1 AHL: Mediocre

Year 2 AHL: Great

 

So I see no reason why it wouldn't continue that way.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

Yeah but our goalie situation.....

I almost posted that myself after reading @Doohickie post.

[Ctaeth]

I believe Jack is going to start hot and then cool mid season as teams switch their focus to him (kind of like what happened in the AHL playoffs).  I, personally, believe he's going to eventually be a ppg player in the NHL, but first he is going to need to figure out how to handle the increased physicality.  Hopefully it's a non-issue and he already has learned from last year's AHL playoffs. 

In terms of point production, I'm going to guess about 50-60 points with a bunch of those points coming from the power play (assuming he stays healthy).  I think he's going to be pretty far in the negative in terms of +/-, but will definitely be a force offensively this first season. 

edit:  after looking at the poll options and seeing a few rookie of the year comments, I just wanted to say I don't think that is a crazy thing to think.  If he has already learned from his lumps in the AHL playoffs, rookie of the year is definitely in play

Edited August 19, 2022 by Ctaeth

[Taro T]

Expecting he's in the 40 point range but expect most of his time will be on lines 3 or 4 and that he'll be on the 2nd PP.  If he ends up in a higher role consistently, nudge the #'s up.

Don't expect he'll get true consideration for RotY because of those #'s AND because Power will be sucking all the air out of that discussion for Quinn & Peterka (regardless of when JJ gets his chance) who will also be taking some votes from each other.

As he seems to have the polar opposite of the Sophomore slump, really looking forward to his play the following year.

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

30g, 30a.

Go big or go home. 

The numbers you project at are realistic numbers next year but not in his rookie year. As @thewookie1has pointed out he has a pattern of acclimating himself in his first year at each level and then taking off in his second year. What's going to be intriguing to watch is the comparison in play between JJ and Quinn. The rate of development of our young players is going to make this season fun to watch. 

[Drag0nDan]

34 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The numbers you project at are realistic numbers next year but not in his rookie year. As @thewookie1has pointed out he has a pattern of acclimating himself in his first year at each level and then taking off in his second year. What's going to be intriguing to watch is the comparison in play between JJ and Quinn. The rate of development of our young players is going to make this season fun to watch. 

Uhh tell that to Jeff Skinner

[nfreeman]

I see him struggling early as he acclimates to NHL opponents and then, if he stays healthy, getting comfortable and becoming a consistent threat in the 2nd half of the season, especially since he'll probably have the benefit of lower-lineup opposition during 5-on-5. 

[NAF]

I believe Quinn will have a solid 18 goal 15 assist rookie year. Has anyone found a good Quinn highlight package from last season? I can't seem to find one anywhere on youtube.

[Curt]

I’m thinking he’ll be pretty good for a rookie.

I’d set 20-20-40 as a conservative estimate.  I think he has a decent chance of surpassing that by a fair amount.

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The numbers you project at are realistic numbers next year but not in his rookie year. As @thewookie1has pointed out he has a pattern of acclimating himself in his first year at each level and then taking off in his second year. What's going to be intriguing to watch is the comparison in play between JJ and Quinn. The rate of development of our young players is going to make this season fun to watch. 

Nah next year he is going to be 35g and 45a. This year he is going 30 and 30. He will start slow and then after Christmas it will be a revelation. 

[dudacek]

Quinn and Peterka's NHL journeys will be fascinating for me as they represent the first Sabres prospects I have ever watched extensively in Rochester.

To me, the skillset Quinn showed with the Amerks — the vision, the hands, the focus — should translate to the NHL very well, as in 30-goal scorer as soon as this year.

The lack of strength, however, gives me pause; I'm not sure if he will be able to create space.

Granato needs to turn him loose on the power play. Thompson and VO have harder one-timers, but he's got a great shot, and no one in the organization is a better pass/shoot combo threat.

Edited August 19, 2022 by dudacek

[bob_sauve28]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

30g, 30a.

Go big or go home. 

Wooo...that would be heavy! 

[Zamboni]

Injury 

slump

struggling to adjust 

15-20 points on the year 

 

digs in heavy next summer, trains hard

 

In 23-24 … 45-55 point NHL season 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Zamboni said:

Injury 

slump

struggling to adjust 

15-20 points on the year 

 

digs in heavy next summer, trains hard

 

In 23-24 … 45-55 point NHL season 

I'm a huge Jack Quinn fan and expect him to have a Thomas Vanek-level career.

But this is what his history has taught us to expect.

[French Collection]

I think he gets to 20G and is in the conversation for ROY. The balanced scoring among the lines will make matchups tough for other teams.

[Eleven]

I have no way of watching the Amerks and so no way of watching Quinn last year.  I don’t have expectations but am eager to see what he does.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Nah next year he is going to be 35g and 45a. This year he is going 30 and 30. He will start slow and then after Christmas it will be a revelation. 

I want you to prove me wrong. I'm rooting against myself but not betting against my stance. 😃

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

The numbers you project at are realistic numbers next year but not in his rookie year. As @thewookie1has pointed out he has a pattern of acclimating himself in his first year at each level and then taking off in his second year. What's going to be intriguing to watch is the comparison in play between JJ and Quinn. The rate of development of our young players is going to make this season fun to watch. 

While I agree 60 pts would be a fantastic result.  I went and looked at how other guys who were approximately as effective as Quinn in the AHL at 20 years did the following season in the NHL when I made may 50 point projection.  Most of the guys, like Briere, Couture, Satan, Savard and Strome, were quite good the following year in the NHL. Briere was on the low end with only 22 pts, but Satan hit 35 pts, Couture had 56, Marc Savard 45, and Ryan Strome had 50.   I think Quinn is at least as talented as the guys on my list.  

[Mustache of God]

I don't want to set my expectations too high but I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks every single one of Gretzky's records in his rookie year.