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Sabres Prospects 2022-2023


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12 hours ago, NAF said:

I think Adams has made it clear he likes to take swings on boom or bust guys -- Rosen, Kisakov, Östlund, maybe even Quinn. I guess part of the thinking is that if only one these guys becomes something special it's worth the busts. I think it's not an unreasonable strategy. Rarely do teams with few stars make it far in the NHL.

I like to think he's using his analytics department to pick the right ones though.  Is there a fancystat that presages boom?  So far the kids look good.  Remember when our big reach was Nylander and how he turned out?  He had the right pedigree but he just didn't have "it" and I like to think Adams and his staff are better at finding "it" than past regimes as well as other current GMs.

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59 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I like to think he's using his analytics department to pick the right ones though.  Is there a fancystat that presages boom?  So far the kids look good.  Remember when our big reach was Nylander and how he turned out?  He had the right pedigree but he just didn't have "it" and I like to think Adams and his staff are better at finding "it" than past regimes as well as other current GMs.

Adams and the FO like to marry high end skill with character, motor and coach ability. They wouldn’t  have chosen Nylander as he doesn’t have the character, motor, coach-ability makeup. 

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1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Adams and the FO like to marry high end skill with character, motor and coach ability. They wouldn’t  have chosen Nylander as he doesn’t have the character, motor, coach-ability makeup. 

Agree completely. Will relate a story that is obviously a VERY small sample size. I went to see the Amerks play in Springfield when Nylander was playing for Roch. Sat two rows behind the Amerks' bench. I have never in my life seen a more aloof and disinterested athlete in any sport - while in the midst of a game. It was stark. He had a serious 'why am I even here' vibe going. It appears the FO is now certainly looking beyond skill in it's assessment of prospects.  

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Kozak might be the Sabres most impressive prospect right now. Going from a late round after thought to a guy that gets heaped praise on from the coaching staff. He was great at the prospects tournament and looked good in his first preseason game culminating in a goal.

He looks like he could be a really solid two way centre threat ala his mentor this year, Michael Peca.  Really excited to see how he develops in Rochester this season. If he is strong on face-offs then that would be huge.

He feels like found money.

Edited by Flashsabre
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19 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Kozak might be the Sabres most impressive prospect right now. Going from a late round after thought to a guy that gets heaped praise on from the coaching staff. He was great at the prospects tournament and looked good in his first preseason game culminating in a goal.

He looks like he could be a really solid two way centre threat ala his mentor this year, Michael Peca.  Really excited to see how he develops in Rochester this season. If he is strong on face-offs then that would be huge.

He feels like found money.

They have plenty of C prospects plus the existing centres make this interesting going forward.

Thompson, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Krebs, Asplund, Girgensons and Sheahan are all possibilities for this year.

High end picks like Savoie and Kulich may force their way onto the team next season.

Guys can move to the wing and I can see rolling 4 lines that can score, with all of this talent. Kozak may be the guy that embraces the 4C role and gets significant ice time because of PK, faceoffs and checking assignments etc…

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3 hours ago, French Collection said:

Guys can move to the wing and I can see rolling 4 lines that can score, with all of this talent. Kozak may be the guy that embraces the 4C role and gets significant ice time because of PK, faceoffs and checking assignments etc…

Nice thing about being a 7th round pick:  You have no expectations of playing on a scoring line.  If he saw 4C as his ticket to the NHL he absolutely would embrace the role and possibly elevate it with some scoring.

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I think Kozak is proving his scoring ability is just fine.  Maybe he is destined for a depth role, but guys mature at different rates.  We might just end up being VO 2.0.  

I’ve learned the lesson that once a guy is a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks, has little to do with where they end up. Go look at the 2005/06 team and research where guys were drafted.  Kotalik, Max, Soupy, Goose, and Miller were all after the 2nd rd picks.  Hell we took Peters in the 2nd rd in 1998 and Kotalik in the 6th.

Kozak is already a better player with a better future imho than 3rd rd pick Sardarian

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17 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

What inadequacies did Kozak have to fall to the 7th round? And how were they overcome to become a certain AHL/possible NHL player. Was it him or did the scouts simply overlook him?

He was an underweight kid who only got 18 games in his draft year due to injury and then a covid shutdown. He's just a guy who probably would have gone higher in his draft year if not for the covid shortened season, a lot of teams only had limited looks at guys to make decisions. 

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35 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think Kozak is proving his scoring ability is just fine.  Maybe he is destined for a depth role, but guys mature at different rates.  We might just end up being VO 2.0.  

I’ve learned the lesson that once a guy is a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks, has little to do with where they end up. Go look at the 2005/06 team and research where guys were drafted.  Kotalik, Max, Soupy, Goose, and Miller were all after the 2nd rd picks.  Hell we took Peters in the 2nd rd in 1998 and Kotalik in the 6th.

Kozak is already a better player with a better future imho than 3rd rd pick Sardarian

Kozak will be interesting to watch, and I'm not going to say lower round draft picks cannot be good players or make the team, but the numbers show that where a player is drafted does have a lot to do with where they will end up being, at least in recent history decade:

2015 NHL Draft:  62% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 25% of players drafted in rounds 6-7 have.

2016 NHL Draft:  70% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 18% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

2017 NHL Draft:  55% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 15% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

2018 NHL Draft: 40% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 8% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

Obviously as we get closer to 2022, the numbers keep trending lower.

In addition to that, a total of 309 goals have been scored in the NHL by all players drafted in those years from 6-7 rounds, while over 1400 goals have been scored in the same years from players drafted in rounds 2-3.

If you go back a decade, all the way to the 2012 NHL draft, only a total of 7 players picked have a career total of over 50 goals, and not one of them has reached 100 career goals.  

 

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2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Kozak will be interesting to watch, and I'm not going to say lower round draft picks cannot be good players or make the team, but the numbers show that where a player is drafted does have a lot to do with where they will end up being, at least in recent history decade:

2015 NHL Draft:  62% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 25% of players drafted in rounds 6-7 have.

2016 NHL Draft:  70% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 18% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

2017 NHL Draft:  55% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 15% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

2018 NHL Draft: 40% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 8% taken in rounds 6-7 have.

Obviously as we get closer to 2022, the numbers keep trending lower.

In addition to that, a total of 309 goals have been scored in the NHL by all players drafted in those years from 6-7 rounds, while over 1400 goals have been scored in the same years from players drafted in rounds 2-3.

If you go back a decade, all the way to the 2012 NHL draft, only a total of 7 players picked have a career total of over 50 goals, and not one of them has reached 100 career goals.  

 

I think your view is to limited.  Looking at guys from 2015 draft and asking why they aren't over 100 goals is asking to much for a guy who just maybe getting his career underway. In 2015 for example, 14 guys played in the NHL last year.  5 are currently over 200 games, a 6th, John Marino is nearly there.  VO was taken in the 7th round of 2014.  Don't you think he'll easily get to 100 goals?  

I better way to look at late from picks is to look at the decade prior, even though many of the best ones are still making an impact in the NHL.  This gives a better view of the possible upside because there guys have had time to play a career's worth of hockey. From 2000-2009 6th and 7th rounders have produced 16 players who have played 400-599 NHL games, another 13 with 600 to 799 and another 10 with 800+.  14 of these guys have 100 plus goals with Joe Pavelski the leader with 421 and still going.  2 others, Bryon and Spurgeon are a goal or 2 away.  Hall of Famers like Henrik Lundqvist and Pavelski were drafted in the 7th.  Plus good to excellent players like Byron, Hornqvist, Stralman, Lee, Spurgeon, Atkinson and Haula among many other familiar names.  

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23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think your view is to limited.  Looking at guys from 2015 draft and asking why they aren't over 100 goals is asking to much for a guy who just maybe getting his career underway. In 2015 for example, 14 guys played in the NHL last year.  5 are currently over 200 games, a 6th, John Marino is nearly there.  VO was taken in the 7th round of 2014.  Don't you think he'll easily get to 100 goals?  

I better way to look at late from picks is to look at the decade prior, even though many of the best ones are still making an impact in the NHL.  This gives a better view of the possible upside because there guys have had time to play a career's worth of hockey. From 2000-2009 6th and 7th rounders have produced 16 players who have played 400-599 NHL games, another 13 with 600 to 799 and another 10 with 800+.  14 of these guys have 100 plus goals with Joe Pavelski the leader with 421 and still going.  2 others, Bryon and Spurgeon are a goal or 2 away.  Hall of Famers like Henrik Lundqvist and Pavelski were drafted in the 7th.  Plus good to excellent players like Byron, Hornqvist, Stralman, Lee, Spurgeon, Atkinson and Haula among many other familiar names.  

I was responding directly to your post where you said "a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks"

I kinda figured going up to 7 years was going to cover the yea or two that you mentioned, and I compared 'higher picks' to 6th and 7th rounders because you referenced the 05/06 Sabres and how many of those players were after the 2nd round.

So, My view is for sure not to limited, unless you want to move the goal posts on your argument, which it appears you do.  To me looking at things at least 10 years in the past or more...well, the NHL was different then. Player development was different then.  Things were much different back then compared to how development is viewed now.

But even if you do that...I looked at the 2000, 2001 and 2002 NHL draft now just to see what late round picks were and how they did....and I saw a total of 2 players (out of more than 250) that were taken in the last 3 rounds of all of those drafts who had an entire career where they scored even 100 goals...and those 3 guys were P.A Parenteau, Marek Svatos, and Matthew Lombardi...all of those barely had over 100 goals for their entire career and none were exactly difference makers.

I agree later round picks are just throwaway picks, and I hope the Sabres can have players that can be impact players (you mentioned Olofsson, and he is a good example of this), but my point is that it sure does matter where a player was drafted.  With equal development of a 'higher round' draft pick compared to someone taken at the back of the draft, you are much, much more likely to get a productive player with that middle to late 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick than you are with a later round guy.

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Just now, mjd1001 said:

I was responding directly to your post where you said "a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks"

I kinda figured going up to 7 years was going to cover the yea or two that you mentioned, and I compared 'higher picks' to 6th and 7th rounders because you referenced the 05/06 Sabres and how many of those players were after the 2nd round.

So, My view is for sure not to limited, unless you want to move the goal posts on your argument, which it appears you do.

I was talking about development.  To me once a guy is in the system, his performance dictates how quickly he moves up regardless of where he is drafted.  Kozak is a great example of what I'm referencing.  Given what he did in the CHL last year and how he has performed in training camp, do the Sabres care at all where he was drafted? No obviously not, they care that he is a quickly developing player that's going to suit up for Rochester next season.  

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6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Nice thing about being a 7th round pick:  You have no expectations of playing on a scoring line.  If he saw 4C as his ticket to the NHL he absolutely would embrace the role and possibly elevate it with some scoring.

Victor Goalofsson would like to say 'hi.'  😉

Really believe leaguewide there will be significantly more guys drafted at the tailend of the '21 draft that end up having legit solid NHL careers than from most years because in many ways scouting that year will turn out to have been as much of a crapshoot (or more in certain ways) than it was in the '80s.  Wouldn't be surprised to still see more late rounders make it from this year's draft than in typical years either as the D-1 baseline is flawed for many of the guys drafted this past summer.

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On 9/26/2022 at 7:55 AM, French Collection said:

They have plenty of C prospects plus the existing centres make this interesting going forward.

Thompson, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Krebs, Asplund, Girgensons and Sheahan are all possibilities for this year.

High end picks like Savoie and Kulich may force their way onto the team next season.

Guys can move to the wing and I can see rolling 4 lines that can score, with all of this talent. Kozak may be the guy that embraces the 4C role and gets significant ice time because of PK, faceoffs and checking assignments etc…

2022 draft was a great one for system balance 

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On 9/26/2022 at 8:25 AM, Flashsabre said:

Kozak might be the Sabres most impressive prospect right now. Going from a late round after thought to a guy that gets heaped praise on from the coaching staff. He was great at the prospects tournament and looked good in his first preseason game culminating in a goal.

He looks like he could be a really solid two way centre threat ala his mentor this year, Michael Peca.  Really excited to see how he develops in Rochester this season. If he is strong on face-offs then that would be huge.

He feels like found money.

 

People say Kozak has the potential to be a elite defensive forward in the NHL and he's always been strong player in that area. One stat ive heard mention that still makes people in hockey impressed is his rookie season in the WHL he had 29 pts and was a +27. That is unheard of in junior hockey unless you're scoring 60-70 and more points. Kozak finally did find his scoring touch while facing off against the opponents top line each night. I'm not a big +/- stat guy but that is something i've heard mentioned several times by people when discussing Kozak.

A season with Peca i can only imagine what will do for him.

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