NHL Trade Rumors and Speculation 2022-23

[Two or less]

26 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

30th in the league is good, not elite.  I reserve the term elite for the best of the best, not someone who had one good year finishing in that position in the league.

Good, great, elite. He is not elite. Matthews, draisatl, Ovie. Top 10 in points or top 5 in goals. Robertson is not there.

2nd and 3rd year in OHL 40+ goals each season

4th season in Kingston 23 goals in 24 games. Gets traded to Niagara and scores 25 in 38 games.

Goes to the AHL, scores 25 goals in 60 games.

First full year in the NHL, scores 17 goals in 51 games.

Last season, second season in the NHL as a 23 year old, scored 41 goals in 74 games.

That's elite goal scoring.

[Scottysabres]

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

The other good comparable is Alex Debrincat, just a year older and more proven.

He cost a 3rd, a 2nd and a top 10 pick.

This.....

Dallas asking price is most certainly going to be an unprotected 1st, other high rd pick(s) or a mix of younger (18 to 21 yr old) high end prospect talent. It would effectively signal the beginning of a rebuild for them.

 

[klos1963]

20 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

The other good comparable is Alex Debrincat, just a year older and more proven.

He cost a 3rd, a 2nd and a top 10 pick.

Debrincat with 2 40 goal and 1 30 goal season already, thought that was steal for the Sens. Would definitely not mind getting a goal scorer like that for 3 picks.

Both Debrincat and Robertson were 39 pick overall. Kinda interesting fun fact.

 

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, Two or less said:

2nd and 3rd year in OHL 40+ goals each season

4th season in Kingston 23 goals in 24 games. Gets traded to Niagara and scores 25 in 38 games.

Goes to the AHL, scores 25 goals in 60 games.

First full year in the NHL, scores 17 goals in 51 games.

Last season, second season in the NHL as a 23 year old, scored 41 goals in 74 games.

That's elite goal scoring.

Elite 'goal scoring' is not elite.  Goal scoring is only one part of a players game. A big part, but only one part.  My whole point, and the point of this thread i was responding to was about him being an 'elite player'.  If you want to move the goal posts away from the discussion about him being an 'elite player' to an 'elite goal scorer' to fit your argument, fine.  He still isn't that currently as an NHL player.

AHL and OHL are not the NHL.  Plenty of players had 'elite' goal scoring in the minors without it translating to the NHL. For the argument of what kind of player he will be in the NHL, with NHL experience already, tjunior/minor scoring means little to me (and I never referenced it in my argument)

So, in the NHL,  17 goals in 51 games in his first year and 41 in 74 last year is NOT elite. It is GOOD...do not confuse good or very good with Elite.

-Last year he was 13th in thee league in goals. Very good? Yes. Elite?  Not if you aren't in the top 5 for the "Elite" label.

-The last 2 years, he is 18th in the league in goals.  Not elite

-The last 2 years, he is 33rd in the league in points.  Not elite

-He missed some games, so how about per games played? Last 2 years he is tied for 32 in points per game, 26th in goals per 60, 10th in points per 60,  19th in goals per game, 32nd in points per game. Those are very good, but not elite numbers.  I don't know what you consider Elite, but none of that is close to elite in my book. You need to be top 10, PROBABLY top 5 to be considered elite.

I understand you like him. I know he is very productive.  He scores more than anyone on the Sabres, he might get even better than he is. But in no way has he been up to now 'elite'.

 

[nfreeman]

I'd also note that including Johnson and/or Portillo in any trade isn't really meaningful unless Dallas knows at the time of the trade that the player will sign with them, which is pretty unlikely.

In any event, I'd guess that there is less than a 5% chance that Dallas trades him.  He's young, under their control and turning into a star.  Trading him would be a really dumb move.

[RochesterExpat]

11 hours ago, Two or less said:

2nd and 3rd year in OHL 40+ goals each season

 

Going to catch fire for this, but 40 goals isn't elite at the OHL level. It's no slouch, sure, and the fact he did it in 16-17, 17-18 and 18-19 is impressive. OHL leading scorers are almost always above 50 goals per season if not 60. I would argue that's where we start using the term "elite."

And before we argue that he was nearly a goal-per-game pace before being traded in 18-19, it was because the Frontenacs were awful and he was getting all the ice time. He was also 19 and physically a man among boys as often happens for the final season in major junior.

He was traded so the Frontenacs could tank for Shane Wright funny enough.

 

11 hours ago, Two or less said:

Goes to the AHL, scores 25 goals in 60 games.

First full year in the NHL, scores 17 goals in 51 games

Drew Stafford was the same age when he started pro hockey and scored 22 goals in 34 games in the AHL and 13 goals in 41 games in Buffalo--in the same year.

Drew Stafford is not an elite goal scorer.

11 hours ago, Two or less said:

Last season, second season in the NHL as a 23 year old, scored 41 goals in 74 games.

 

This argument I understand and this is where it becomes purely subjective. I don't believe that necessarily qualifies you as elite because I think that term should be used very sparingly (I also get annoyed that we have 'generational talents' in every other draft). Not to be pedantic about it, but I'm in agreement with mjd1001 that elite should be reserved for the top 10 (or higher) in the league and specifically players who are consistently there. The problem is EA Sports now has us applying the elite label to players who don't deserve it... but that's a different story.

Jason Robertson is a great hockey player--not just good. He is a genuinely great scorer. He might end up in the top 10 consistently in scoring at some point in which case we can revisit this conversation. But as of right now? No, he is not. I would argue that us even debating whether he is an elite talent suggests he isn't. There is no debating Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, etc. are elite hockey players or that Alexander Ovechkin is an elite goal scorer. But there is no debate because those players are genuinely elite as they've consistently proven it.
 

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Elite 'goal scoring' is not elite.  Goal scoring is only one part of a players game. A big part, but only one part.  My whole point, and the point of this thread i was responding to was about him being an 'elite player'.  If you want to move the goal posts away from the discussion about him being an 'elite player' to an 'elite goal scorer' to fit your argument, fine.  He still isn't that currently as an NHL player.

In defense of two or less, he only ever called him an elite goal scorer. You were responding to others who used the term elite and he chimed in. He wasn't the one moving the goal posts. His argument itself was that he was an elite goal scorer.

You can absolutely be elite at finishing or elite at playmaking without having the rest of your game fit the criteria for being an elite hockey player. I would also agree with you that Robertson is on the cusp of qualifying as an elite goal scorer. He just isn't there yet. I also recognize the argument that a player with a 41 goal season is arguably an elite finisher. 

[Doohickie]

14 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

But robertson is elite why would dallas trade a away a super star already for a   Mystery Box player 

because they don't have the cap space to sign him.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I'd also note that including Johnson and/or Portillo in any trade isn't really meaningful unless Dallas knows at the time of the trade that the player will sign with them, which is pretty unlikely.

In any event, I'd guess that there is less than a 5% chance that Dallas trades him.  He's young, under their control and turning into a star.  Trading him would be a really dumb move.

Johnson is worth at least a late 2nd in 2024.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Have we not learned anything about KA during rebuild 3.0?  He isn’t bringing in any outside assets in the organization unless he has no choice such as goaltending and an RHD and even then they’ll be value oriented transactions.  

While bringing Robertson is certainly interesting, no way KA trades any of his precious young talent for him.  

 

20 hours ago, Thorny said:

Stretches believability to the breaking point. KA has been in the accumulate assets stage. Just because that’s how the roster has been operated thus far, doesn’t mean the situation doesn’t/can’t change as time goes on. I’m not saying the time is now, but to rule out the possibility of KA ever making deals that include prospects because we haven’t really seen one yet is absurd. 

No GM exists in a scenario where deals for prospects are forevermore off the table and that would be a poor strategy to take.

It has to be the *right* deal, but to rule it out full stop in absolute fashion is a bad tactic that bad GMs take. Dealing in absolutes. Just like what made Botterill’s draft strategy bad is that he avoided the CHL absolutely after the first round refusing ever to shift.

I think you read something into my comments that wasn't there.  I never said he wouldn't trade prospects to fill roster holes once we were a good team.  We are talking about today and KA has been very clear about his rebuild strategy.  He won't block prized prospects and he isn't trading away his pipeline.  I doubt that changes until we are a playoff team.  That said, I do think his value oriented approach will remain.  

We are also talking about making an acquisition for Roberston for this coming season not 2-3 years from now.  Given how many of KA's young roster will need new contracts in the next couple of years, my guess is that KA is very leery of investing 8 mill a year in a player that isn't from our development program and wants to be here. 

[Doohickie]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said he wouldn't trade prospects to fill roster holes once we were a good team. 

But you are saying he won't do that until the Sabres are a good team.  If Kevyn (and the scouting staff) knows enough about Robertson to think he could be part of the core, and the opportunity to snag him comes up, why wouldn't he go for it?

We've seen Kevyn stick to his plan so far, but who's to say bringing in young top players for future assets isn't in his plan?  It could simply be a case of the right deal hasn't come up yet.  And maybe this isn't the right deal either, in terms of the return Dallas is looking for.  But if Dallas is cap strapped, maybe their ask will come down as we get closer to the season start.  The question in my mind is what Robertson is looking for in salary and term.  I'm sure Dallas knows what his ask is, and would probably tell Kevyn what their offer was if they thought it could facilitate a trade.

[nfreeman]

40 minutes ago, Curt said:

Johnson is worth at least a late 2nd in 2024.

Good call, but is the right to the compensatory pick transferable?  Or is that minimum value relevant only to the Sabres?

[Brawndo]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good call, but is the right to the compensatory pick transferable?  Or is that minimum value relevant only to the Sabres?

Yes, whoever has His rights if he is not signed on 8/15/23 gets the pick 

 

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good call, but is the right to the compensatory pick transferable?  Or is that minimum value relevant only to the Sabres?

No, the compensatory pick belongs to the team that holds his draft rights.  If the player is transferred, the rights to that 2nd round pick should he not sign belong to the team that traded for his rights.  That comp pick is transferrable.

[GASabresIUFAN]

57 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

But you are saying he won't do that until the Sabres are a good team.  If Kevyn (and the scouting staff) knows enough about Robertson to think he could be part of the core, and the opportunity to snag him comes up, why wouldn't he go for it?

We've seen Kevyn stick to his plan so far, but who's to say bringing in young top players for future assets isn't in his plan?  It could simply be a case of the right deal hasn't come up yet.  And maybe this isn't the right deal either, in terms of the return Dallas is looking for.  But if Dallas is cap strapped, maybe their ask will come down as we get closer to the season start.  The question in my mind is what Robertson is looking for in salary and term.  I'm sure Dallas knows what his ask is, and would probably tell Kevyn what their offer was if they thought it could facilitate a trade.

First things first, Dallas can afford to re-sign him.  They have 6+ in cap space and another 3.3 in LTIR.  

Why would Robertson want to leave a Cup contender to come here?  KA just signed a similar one year wonder for 7 mill per year, why invest in another one year wonder (JR's 41 goals came on an 18% shooting percentage), when he has potential 30-40 goal guys like Quinn and JJP on ELCs.  While I think Robertson is an excellent player, I just don't see the urgency to acquire him and put another big contract on the books when we be attempting to re-sign our own breakout players this year and next.  

I think it's much more likely that Dallas re-signs Robertson to a 3 year bridge deal and KA trades Bishop back to Dallas for Khudobin's contract and a draft pick. Dallas then uses Benn's money in 3 seasons to pay Robertson long-term.

Edited September 29, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

because they don't have the cap space to sign him.

Thats why i said they would want power who is already proven 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Yes, whoever has His rights if he is not signed on 8/15/23 gets the pick 

 

I'm not sure what Weekes means.  Are we bringing back Desjardins?  Are we acquiring a goaltender in trade?  Are we signing a long lost veteran goaltender?

[Brawndo]

The Stars Owner may have be contributing to the situation as well

 

Gaglardi said he doesn't like teams' tendency to hand out big paydays once players' entry-level contracts expire.

"A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million," he said. "If you want term with that player, he's going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed."

He added, "I think there's a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don't like it, but that's the market, and that's the way it works."

[Two or less]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure what Weekes means.  Are we bringing back Desjardins?  Are we acquiring a goaltender in trade?  Are we signing a long lost veteran goaltender?

No one knows, this man just can’t help himself with cryptic teases but he’s almost always right. So we’ll see.

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The Stars Owner may have be contributing to the situation as well

 

Gaglardi said he doesn't like teams' tendency to hand out big paydays once players' entry-level contracts expire.

"A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million," he said. "If you want term with that player, he's going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed."

He added, "I think there's a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don't like it, but that's the market, and that's the way it works."

I think the Dallas owner should stop talking for a while.  Wasn’t he publicly criticizing his Seguin and Benn not too long ago?

I hope he believes that Robertson isn’t worth $7M and there guys in the league making $1M who are better players.  Can Adams negotiate directly with the Stars owner?

[Buffalonill]

5 hours ago, klos1963 said:

Debrincat with 2 40 goal and 1 30 goal season already, thought that was steal for the Sens. Would definitely not mind getting a goal scorer like that for 3 picks.

Both Debrincat and Robertson were 39 pick overall. Kinda interesting fun fact.

 

Debrincat had kane Not comparable in my opinion 

40 minutes ago, Curt said:

I think the Dallas owner should stop talking for a while.  Wasn’t he publicly criticizing his Seguin and Benn not too long ago?

I hope he believes that Robertson isn’t worth $7M and there guys in the league making $1M who are better players.  Can Adams negotiate directly with the Stars owner?

Hes looking for 8-9m btw

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Yes, whoever has His rights if he is not signed on 8/15/23 gets the pick 

 

That's impossibly cryptic

[Flashsabre]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

I think the Dallas owner should stop talking for a while.  Wasn’t he publicly criticizing his Seguin and Benn not too long ago?

I hope he believes that Robertson isn’t worth $7M and there guys in the league making $1M who are better players.  Can Adams negotiate directly with the Stars owner?

The owner voicing his opinions doesn’t help Nill at all. The other problem is their other young stud, Hintz will need to be locked up to. Trying to make all the financial puzzle pieces fit is Nill’s biggest job right now.

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Yes, whoever has His rights if he is not signed on 8/15/23 gets the pick 

 

Could that piece be Robertson? Could it be Chychrun? Could it be someone not in the rumor mill  at all?

[Buffalonill]

9 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Could that piece be Robertson? Could it be Chychrun? Could it be someone not in the rumor mill  at all?

Or just getting the buffalo fan base all excited for clicks 

[tom webster]

Maybe Portillo changed his mind, or maybe they agreed to take Bob’s contract off Florida’s hands after Knight signed.