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Offer Sheets, is it about to happen?


tom webster
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I, along with people I trust, believe this will be the summer of the offer sheets. Another year of a flat cap, some teams believing they are close or under pressure to improve. Other teams tight against the cap. This off season and the next may be the last before the cap starts to explode. Three years max barring any cataclysmic health shutdowns. Now may be the time to pounce. Will the Sabres be at the forefront or once again be behind the curve.

The one negative? A crazy talented 2023 draft.

Thoughts?

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You don't have to break the draft pick bank on an RFA offer sheet. I could see a team giving an offer sheet at the 2nd-round (under $4.1M) or 3rd-round level (<$2.05M) for one of those cap-strapped teams' depth guys.

For example, Nicolas Roy of the Golden Knights would make a solid 3C addition on many rosters and Vegas might simply have to take the pick if Stone is healthy. (Case in point: the Sabres would have a tremendous upgrade replacing Eakin with Roy, in my opinion. And they'd still have 2 2nds in 2023)

Edited by DarthEbriate
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Sabres missing their 3rd in 2023 would limit their offer sheet ability this summer.

Basically, they'd be limited to throwing out an offer between $2 and 4.1 million (2nd rounder). More would require their 3rd.

Unless they were to go all out and offer someone more than $10 million

Teams will certainly be vulnerable and a handful of others, including the Sabres are in a position to take advantage.

Here's the list of available players:

https://www.capfriendly.com/rfas

Edited by dudacek
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If, IF, Sabres are even willing to offer sheet, they do not have the draft picks needed to offer sheet a player with a salary between $4.1M and $10.2M.

So since I can’t imagine them giving an offer sheet with a $10.2M+ salary and 4 1st round picks compensation, that means the Sabres won’t be offer sheeting anyone with salary greater than $4.1M for compensation of one 2nd round pick.  If it’s a middle 6 forward or 2nd pair RHD, that’s not a bad cost at all.

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I think that this could be a year for some surprises with offer sheets that are not going to be matchable.

Not sure if the Sabres will want to get involved at this point.  I don't think they are at the *buying* stage in the UFA market or the RFA offer sheet market.  

I agree with @tom webster that it's likely to be an interesting summer.

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23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabres missing their 3rd in 2023 would limit their offer sheet ability this summer.

Basically, they'd be limited to throwing out an offer between $2 and 4.1 million (2nd rounder). More would require their 3rd.

Unless they were to goo all out and offer someone more than $10 million

Teams will certainly be vulnerable and a handful of others, including the Sanres are in a position to take advantage.

Here's the list of available players:

https://www.capfriendly.com/rfas

Vancouver reacquired their 3rd, some believe just for this purpose.

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The reasoning is sound, but the NHL player market is overboard irrational.  Offer sheets have been one-off flukes, not ever driven by league-wide economic environment, and perceived as acts of violence and almost immediately perceived as overcompensating for the player.

There have been only 10 offer sheets signed since the year 2000 and only two in the past eight years; only two players of the 10 have not been matched (Penner 2007 1st and 3rd; Kotkaniemi 2021 1st and 3rd).

Is it possible that a few offer sheets are signed this year?  Perhaps.  But they'll be on a player-by-player basis.  And without the Sabres 3rd, I don't see us making any meaningful moves that won't be matched (unless we do something realll dumb, which we won't).

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If the Sabres don't they are wasting a golden opportunity that rarely comes along for a team to get a young, proven player that could accelerate their rebuild massively.

Not expecting they will but it will be disappointing if they don't

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Lets screw Dallas and make an offer sheet for Oettinger.   That could solve our goalie issue for the next decade or at least put the hated Stars in cap hell.  We certainly have the draft capital to make such as offer.  

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3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

If the Sabres don't they are wasting a golden opportunity that rarely comes along for a team to get a young, proven player that could accelerate their rebuild massively.

Not expecting they will but it will be disappointing if they don't

Who should they talk to and try to come to a contract agreement?  Who are your most golden opportunities?

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Never all that interested in Offer sheets, the risk and bad blood it brings outweighs any possible benefit to your franchise

 

Just need to add; our 1st in 2023 should be completely untouchable.

Edited by thewookie1
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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Lets screw Dallas and make an offer sheet for Oettinger.   That could solve our goalie issue for the next decade or at least put the hated Stars in cap hell.  We certainly have the draft capital to make such as offer.  

How much do you think  he costs?  He also has to want to sign here.

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Just now, Curt said:

How much do you think  he costs?  He also has to want to sign here.

Signing an offer sheet = the ultimate "does he wants to be here?" test

For Otter, probably $6M (1st and a 3rd) is the starting point. But Dallas has Radulov and Klingberg coming off the books so they'll have the space to refocus on Oettinger next season. They do have Khudobin and Bishop still signed next year, but Bishop may be on LTIR for the duration of his career.

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3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Signing an offer sheet = the ultimate "does he wants to be here?" test

For Otter, probably $6M (1st and a 3rd) is the starting point. But Dallas has Radulov and Klingberg coming off the books so they'll have the space to refocus on Oettinger next season. They do have Khudobin and Bishop still signed next year, but Bishop may be on LTIR for the duration of his career.

Unless they trade to get their 2023 3rd round pick back, the Sabres can’t offer a contract with AAV between $4.1M and $10.2M.

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Sabres could do like Carolina did.  Sign a young RFA to a short term deal 1-2 years, for overpayment type money, then they are still RFAs after that contract.

This could be an appealing idea for a young guy who projects as more of a bottom 6 defensive forward, or 2nd/3rd pair defensive defenseman.

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1 hour ago, tom webster said:

Vancouver reacquired their 3rd, some believe just for this purpose.

Vancouver would have to shed some serious salary before they could even consider this.

 

55 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I have a hard time seeing KA leading the charge on something like this, which would be a fairly radical change in the way the NHL operates.

It would, but circumstances have changed. In addition to the cap and economic realities Tom points out, you also have had a pretty big shift in the community of NHL GMs. It’s different group of old boys, embracing different philosophies.

23 minutes ago, Curt said:

Sabres could do like Carolina did.  Sign a young RFA to a short term deal 1-2 years, for overpayment type money, then they are still RFAs after that contract.

This could be an appealing idea for a young guy who projects as more of a bottom 6 defensive forward, or 2nd/3rd pair defensive defenseman.

As this one proved, the door is already opening.

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1 hour ago, Curt said:

Who should they talk to and try to come to a contract agreement?  Who are your most golden opportunities?

I like Pierre Luc Dubois from the Jets...big, physical 6'3" 220 lb winger who can play center as well, that can score 25-30 goals and add 60-65 points to the lineup...

 

He is only 23, scored 28 goals and had 60 points this year for the Jets. Would fit in well with the young core group we have here.

Or if we are going more top end, Jason Robertson with the Dallas Stars is a breakout star this year scoring 41 goals and 79 points with a defensive minded Dallas team that tries to win games 1-0.  Still only 22, Sabres could get a young budding superstar but it would likely cost them a lot...maybe even the 4 firsts, which might be too expensive a price to pay.

Edited by matter2003
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5 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

You don't have to break the draft pick bank on an RFA offer sheet. I could see a team giving an offer sheet at the 2nd-round (under $4.1M) or 3rd-round level (<$2.05M) for one of those cap-strapped teams' depth guys.

For example, Nicolas Roy of the Golden Knights would make a solid 3C addition on many rosters and Vegas might simply have to take the pick if Stone is healthy. (Case in point: the Sabres would have a tremendous upgrade replacing Eakin with Roy, in my opinion. And they'd still have 2 2nds in 2023)

 

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I have a hard time seeing KA leading the charge on something like this, which would be a fairly radical change in the way the NHL operates.

I agree with both of you, good example to use DarthE, I would think the obvious way around starting a war with another team is to offer the draft allotment for signing an RFA in a trade, possibly upping the price slightly, a 2nd and a 4th/5th to keep good will. As for VGK's, what they do with Dadonov will show their hand, he played pretty well for them to end the year so it will be interesting if they decide to rid themselves of him again or do they go another route and keep him. With Florida and VGK without draft picks both could be enticed.

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7 hours ago, Curt said:

If, IF, Sabres are even willing to offer sheet, they do not have the draft picks needed to offer sheet a player with a salary between $4.1M and $10.2M.

So since I can’t imagine them giving an offer sheet with a $10.2M+ salary and 4 1st round picks compensation, that means the Sabres won’t be offer sheeting anyone with salary greater than $4.1M for compensation of one 2nd round pick.  If it’s a middle 6 forward or 2nd pair RHD, that’s not a bad cost at all.

I would love KA do what Carolina did last year with Kotkaniemi. Offer sheet a high number on a one year deal. Once you have the players rights you can give him a longer term deal at a normal cap hit.  Look at teams that are against the cap and probably could not match offer.

Thinking player like:

 $4 million on one year.  Then extend him for 4 years at $3-$3.5 million cap hit.

Nicholas Roy- Vegas

Piere Engval- Toronto

 

or

 

$3 million offer sheet.  Then extend for term at $2-2.5 million

Kegan Kolesar- Vegas

Timothy Liljegren- Toronto

Jacob Middleton- Minnesota

Niko Mikkola- St Louis

 

 

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26 minutes ago, kas23 said:

KA was pretty clear he was going to select players with all his picks.

KA:  "If you're putting me on the spot, I would expect that we would make our three picks."

"Expect" is a huge weasel word here.  It's easy to see a scenario where he could use draft picks to make the team better now rather than in a couple years.  Also, that quote was only about the first round picks.  If the right player is available for under $4.1 million he could easily go for it.

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