2022 Offseason Game Plan

[GASabresIUFAN]

59 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I probably wouldn't trade UPL, replacing 1 goalie prospect with a slightly older one doesn't make me feel any better about our situation. 

I would trade UPL in a minute.  

[Broken Ankles]

12 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

IDK - I'd personally like to see the Sabres continue to fortify their center spine and turn it into a position that has a deep talent base.  If they have too many centers, some can shift to wing.  We were so thin on center prospects and trading Mitts waters down our center depth.

@LGR4GM @Weave @Carmel Corn -  All good points.  Their numbers are about the same in points/60 minutes.   Krebs slightly higher, and certainly more EV strength goals/60.   Interesting fact - Krebs shooting percentage is higher overall and much higher than Mitts this year with Buffalo.  I would have guessed Mitts based on what appears to be a superior shot.  The point about Mitts getting more return, Krebs being two years younger and recently acquired makes me side with Marty's take.  I do not see him as a number two center.   Next year or in the future.   This was conceded by Duffer when he suggested Mitts future is on the wing. I have been luke-warm on Mitts as a prospect and while I concede he made nice strides this year, the foot speed is just lacking so I can move on.   Plus Marty and Duffer know a $hit-ton more than me. Hopefully good fodder. 

[HumanSlinky39]

36 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

IDK - I'd personally like to see the Sabres continue to fortify their center spine and turn it into a position that has a deep talent base.  If they have too many centers, some can shift to wing.  We were so thin on center prospects and trading Mitts waters down our center depth.

Two months ago, I'd have been all aboard trading Mitts. Now not so much. He's not putting stats up in the boxscore, but he's been doing all of that stuff that doesn't show up on the stats sheets that good teams have unsung guys doing. Mitts has been our best guy on the boards the last couple of months, IMO.

Edited April 26, 2022 by HumanSlinky39

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

On the topic of who will be paired with Power next year, my recollection is that Adams stated they were thinking of options and that they were considering external and internal candidates. I don’t think Adams ever specifically said he was planning to actively pursue a veteran to pair with Power. I don’t have a prediction, but I think some read more into Adams’s comments than what was actually said. 

Adams is on record as saying he wants "an established D-man."  How aggressively he'll pursue that is where he's been coy (thankfully, no sense in tipping his hand before it's been played) and it's another role he wants to fill but has specifically said he doesn't want to box somebody (read as an up & coming kid) out of a spot.  Not sure if that "somebody" he doesn't want to box out is Johnson, Jokiharju, somebody else, or maybe both.  My take was he's leaving room for Johnson or whomever the top pick might be, but that's speculation.

[Pimlach]

We should not trade Mitts or any center.  I’d like to add a center to replace Eakin and give us more options up the middle.   KA should look at keeping the competitive level at forward high, even for spots 13 and 14.  It’s a long season and we have to beat the upper echelon teams, who tend to be more physical teams, in order to improve in the standings next year.   
 

KA’s first priority has to be improving the goaltending.  UPL is in the plan, but hopefully a solid NHL caliber 1B is also brought in. One that could help us compete if UPL struggles. 
 

Second priority is RHD.  Everyone would like a physical and steady vet added to the backline.  Let Bryson and Fitz sort out who is 6 and 7. 
 

So that’s what I would try to do.  Plus restock Rochester and draft well.  It goes without saying that you do these few moves while leaving sufficient cap room for the inevitable time when we pay our core.  

Edited April 26, 2022 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

I think it would be a mistake to trade Mitts or Krebs in a deal for a bridge goalie or a second pair veteran defenceman, prior to seeing what we have.

As a piece in a package for a 25-year-old Ryan Miller, or Chris Drury, sure.

i get the sense that people are thinking “they probably aren’t going to be stars, so why keep them?”

A healthy Mitts put up 16 in 22 to finish last year and 15 in 26 to finish this year. That’s close to a 50-point scorer on a $2.4 million contract for another year.

Krebs has been just a hair under a 40 point pace as a Sabre on the 1st year of his ELC contract. Sam Reinhart put up 42, 47 and 50 points in his 3 ELC years. Derek Roy put up 19, lockout, 46. 

We are getting good value for the money and each player has room to grow.

Let them play, along with Cozens and Quinn and Peterka and see who emerges and how. There’s room for them all on the roster and under the cap for now.

Patience grasshoppers.

Edited April 26, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think it would be a mistake to trade Mitts or Krebs in a deal for a bridge goalie or a second pair veteran defenceman, prior to seeing what we have.

As a piece in a package for a 25-year-old Ryan Miller, or Chris Drury, sure.

i get the sense that people are thinking “they probably aren’t going to be stars, so why keep them?”

A healthy Mitts put up 16 in 22 to finish last year and 15 in 26 to finish this year. That’s close to a 50-point scorer on a $2.4 million contract for another year.

Krebs has been just a hair under a 40 point pace as a Sabre on the 1st year of his ELC contract. Sam Reinhart put up 42, 47 and 50 points in his 3 ELC years. Derek Roy put up 19, lockout, 46. 

We are getting good value for the money and each player has room to grow.

Let them play, along with Cozens and Quinn and Peterka and see who emerges and how. There’s room for them all on the roster and under the cap for now.

Patience grasshoppers.

Agree much to soon to move on from any of Mitts, Krebs, Cozens, or Jokiharju.  They have made so much progress this season.  

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, JohnC said:

Who has been paired with Power other than Joki? 

Power w/ Joker = 97:04toi, 48.28cf%, 48.96xgf%

Power w/ Bryson = 7:01toi, 61.54cf%, 86.54 xgf%

Power w/ Fitzgerald = 3:46toi, 60cf%, 71.24 xgf%

Power w/ Dahlin = 11:25toi, 62.96cf%, 46.22xgf%

Power w/ Samuelsson = 13:13toi, 26.67cf%, 5.43xgf%

 

That is at all strengths so the Samuelsson numbers are a reflection of the time they spend on the PK probably (just over 4 of those minutes together or almost 1/3 of the toi.)

[LGR4GM]

im confused why we would move any of the young players, doesnt make sense

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Power w/ Joker = 97:04toi, 48.28cf%, 48.96xgf%

Power w/ Bryson = 7:01toi, 61.54cf%, 86.54 xgf%

Power w/ Fitzgerald = 3:46toi, 60cf%, 71.24 xgf%

Power w/ Dahlin = 11:25toi, 62.96cf%, 46.22xgf%

Power w/ Samuelsson = 13:13toi, 26.67cf%, 5.43xgf%

 

That is at all strengths so the Samuelsson numbers are a reflection of the time they spend on the PK probably (just over 4 of those minutes together or almost 1/3 of the toi.)

Thanks for the research. However, the sample size for pairing with Power is too small to make any hard judgments. When assessing Joki I still see more upside. He's a young player who while not dramatically getting better is steadily getting better. I still seem more growth potential. As I said in prior posts his best role is as a B player on a pairing that includes the second pair. We all can agree that Power has come in and played marvelously. The player he has been most paired with is Joki. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Thanks for the research. However, the sample size for pairing with Power is too small to make any hard judgments. When assessing Joki I still see more upside. He's a young player who while not dramatically getting better is steadily getting better. I still seem more growth potential. As I said in prior posts his best role is as a B player on a pairing that includes the second pair. We all can agree that Power has come in and played marvelously. The player he has been most paired with is Joki. 

I really don't understand why we wouldn't upgrade Power's partner. It would be easy to do and we have the money to do it. 

To the bold, yea, because that is the only RHD we have to play with Power. 

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Power w/ Joker = 97:04toi, 48.28cf%, 48.96xgf%

Power w/ Bryson = 7:01toi, 61.54cf%, 86.54 xgf%

Power w/ Fitzgerald = 3:46toi, 60cf%, 71.24 xgf%

Power w/ Dahlin = 11:25toi, 62.96cf%, 46.22xgf%

Power w/ Samuelsson = 13:13toi, 26.67cf%, 5.43xgf%

 

That is at all strengths so the Samuelsson numbers are a reflection of the time they spend on the PK probably (just over 4 of those minutes together or almost 1/3 of the toi.)

So we’re literally talking not even a dozen shifts for anyone but Jokiharju?

And the “weight” of Jokiharju makes Power a tad short of a 50/50 player?

To me, this is about as significant as a player going -1 over 6 games on one line, and +1 in his 7th game on another.

Edited April 26, 2022 by dudacek

[JohnC]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I really don't understand why we wouldn't upgrade Power's partner. It would be easy to do and we have the money to do it. 

To the bold, yea, because that is the only RHD we have to play with Power. 

If the front office can get a better option for Power, I certainly wouldn't be against it. That same reasoning applies to all positions. If the Sabres could add another power forward winger like Tuch, I would be ecstatic. I'm not reluctant to bump down any player if a better option is available.  My view on Joki is that I don't see him being an A defenseman in the top two pairings. But I do see him being a good B pairing, especially on the second pair. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

So we’re literally talking not even a dozen shifts for anyone but Jokiharju?

And the “weight” of Jokiharju makes him a tad short of a 50/50 player?

To me, this is about as significant as a player going -1 over 6 games on one line, and +1 in his 7th game on another.

I would agree except we saw the same thing with Dahlin. Joker doesn't elevate who he plays with, he is just there and kinda ok. We should get Power a better partner to help cover his mistakes and who he can learn some stuff from. It makes the team stronger as a unit when Power has someone else and Joker in on his own line with Bryson or Johnson or whoever makes it out of camp with him. Also it is inevitable that ppl get injured, if joker gets injured do we really want Fitzgerald with Power? I don't. 

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

If the front office can get a better option for Power, I certainly wouldn't be against it. That same reasoning applies to all positions. If the Sabres could add another power forward winger like Tuch, I would be ecstatic. I'm not reluctant to bump down any player if a better option is available.  My view on Joki is that I don't see him being an A defenseman in the top two pairings. But I do see him being a good B pairing, especially on the second pair. 

And he is not a "good" B defender on the second pair. He's a 5/6 defender who can play on up at 3/4 due to injury but you don't want him permanently there. 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would agree except we saw the same thing with Dahlin. Joker doesn't elevate who he plays with, he is just there and kinda ok. We should get Power a better partner to help cover his mistakes and who he can learn some stuff from. It makes the team stronger as a unit when Power has someone else and Joker in on his own line with Bryson or Johnson or whoever makes it out of camp with him. Also it is inevitable that ppl get injured, if joker gets injured do we really want Fitzgerald with Power? I don't. 

To me, the advanced stats over 60 games suggest we should look at a better player than Joki on the first pairing with Dahlin.

They don’t say anything conclusive about him as a 2nd pairing guy. He hasn’t played many games in that role, and the games he has played have largely been with a 19-year-old who has never played in the NHL before.

Could we use a better RHD than Jokiharju? Of course.

We good also use a better 3C than Cozens and a better 2C than Mitts. Hell, even a better 1C than Tage, and he has 37 goals.

I’m not sure why Jokiharju seems to get ripped for being a mediocre 2/3 instead of being praised for being a very good 4/5. Especially when, like Cozens and Mitts, he’s a young player growing into his role. Adams failures aren’t his.

Edited April 26, 2022 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To me, the advanced stats over 60 games suggest we should look at a better player than Joki on the first pairing with Dahlin.

They don’t say anything conclusive about him as a 2nd pairing guy. He hasn’t played many games in that role, and the games he has played have largely been with a 19-year-old who has never played in the NHL before.

Could we use a better RHD than Jokiharju? Of course.

We good also use a better 3C than Cozens and a better 2C than Mitts. Hell, even a better 1C than Tage, and he has 37 goals.

I’m not sure why Jokiharju seems to get ripped for being a mediocre 2/3 instead of being praised for being a very good 4/5. Adams failures aren’t his.

Huh? Besides a better goalie I’m unsure what you are referring to.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Huh? Besides a better goalie I’m unsure what you are referring to.

Jokiharju has been used largely as our 1RHD because he has been our best RHD.

He has been our best RHD because Adams hadn’t acquired a better one.

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To me, the advanced stats over 60 games suggest we should look at a better player than Joki on the first pairing with Dahlin.

They don’t say anything conclusive about him as a 2nd pairing guy. He hasn’t played many games in that role, and the games he has played have largely been with a 19-year-old who has never played in the NHL before.

Could we use a better RHD than Jokiharju? Of course.

We good also use a better 3C than Cozens and a better 2C than Mitts. Hell, even a better 1C than Tage, and he has 37 goals.

I’m not sure why Jokiharju seems to get ripped for being a mediocre 2/3 instead of being praised for being a very good 4/5. Especially when, like Cozens and Mitts, he’s a young player growing into his role. Adams failures aren’t his.

Not ripping him, but won't praise him for being a good 4 because IMHO he isn't.  He's a near ideal 5 and can play up a pairing but really don't want him there at this point in his career.  IMHO he's an adequate 4.  Would like better.

Don't see advocating for a better 2nd pairing RHD as ripping him either.  The GM is advocating for it as well.

And this is from someone that believed a valid case could be made that he was playing the best of any of the Sabres D-men when he was paired w/ Scandella.  (How's that for an evaluation of Botterill's tenure, with all the D he started w/ and also subsequently brought in that the 4th or 5th best defenseman today was arguably playing the best of his entire bunch.)

Edited April 26, 2022 by Taro T

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

im confused why we would move any of the young players, doesnt make sense

Because:

1) Some of the elite scouts on the board have already made up their minds on these young players and know there is no possible way they will continue to develop and improve because they have prime examples of it in Dahlin and Tage.

2) There is no possible way anyone decent can be acquired in free agency. Apparently it has never happened and never will so we have to throw the young players away instead to acquire different players.

[LGR4GM]

38 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To me, the advanced stats over 60 games suggest we should look at a better player than Joki on the first pairing with Dahlin.

They don’t say anything conclusive about him as a 2nd pairing guy. He hasn’t played many games in that role, and the games he has played have largely been with a 19-year-old who has never played in the NHL before.

Could we use a better RHD than Jokiharju? Of course.

We good also use a better 3C than Cozens and a better 2C than Mitts. Hell, even a better 1C than Tage, and he has 37 goals.

I’m not sure why Jokiharju seems to get ripped for being a mediocre 2/3 instead of being praised for being a very good 4/5. Especially when, like Cozens and Mitts, he’s a young player growing into his role. Adams failures aren’t his.

Because he isn't a very good 4/5. Maybe he'll grow into a good 3rd pairing guy but ik he's not a 1st pairing guy. His 2nd pairing time hasn't been good, it's been largely meh. 

Not sure what Adams has to do with it. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

If the front office can get a better option for Power, I certainly wouldn't be against it. That same reasoning applies to all positions. If the Sabres could add another power forward winger like Tuch, I would be ecstatic. I'm not reluctant to bump down any player if a better option is available.  My view on Joki is that I don't see him being an A defenseman in the top two pairings. But I do see him being a good B pairing, especially on the second pair. 

What is this A/B business?  We have a numbering system for defensemen.  Is it not good enough?  What does this A/B stuff add?

To me it just looks like you are saying that you think Jokiharju is a 4, he is good enough to play in your top 4, but just barely.

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Because he isn't a very good 4/5. Maybe he'll grow into a good 3rd pairing guy but ik he's not a 1st pairing guy. His 2nd pairing time hasn't been good, it's been largely meh.

Maybe we have different definitions of 4/5?

These are the division's 4/5s based on ice time

• Mike Reilly/Matt Grelcyck
• Danny Dekeyser/Marc Staal
• Ben Chiarot/Radko Gudas
• Joel Edmundson/Brett Kulak
• Erik Brannstrom/Travis Hamonic
• Erik Cernak/Jani Rutta
• Mark Giordano/Justin Holl

Do you think most of those guys are clearly better than Jokiharju?

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

im confused why we would move any of the young players, doesnt make sense

While I generally agree with you here, but I can see scenarios where Bryson or Asplund end up in trades to upgrade other areas.  Once Johnson signs (if?) Bryson becomes moveable.  Asplund can also become expendable if KA signs a center for the KO line.  Personally I’d rather trade Girgensons over Asplund, but I don’t see KA moving on from one of his veteran leaders at this point.

[nfreeman]

I too think it would be nuts to trade Krebs or Mitts unless it is part of a package for a no-BS really good young player coming back -- which seems pretty unlikely. 

And I say that as a longtime Mitts skeptic.  He's shown enough post-RK last year and post-injury-return this year that I want to see what he looks like with a full offseason of conditioning and a full season of playing.  I'm far from certain that he'll be a good NHL forward, but he might be, and there's a non-negligible chance that he'll develop into a good top-6 forward.

The same is true of Krebs IMHO.  He's fast, he's skilled, he has a great attitude, he seems to have good hockey IQ and he's just starting out in his career.  That's not the kind of guy you trade for just a decent vet goalie or defenseman.

The Sabres are finally in a position where they have a bunch of young, talented forwards.  Not all of them are going to blossom into legit NHL top-6 or top-9 guys, but we don't know which are and which aren't yet, and there is no reason to rush the decisions.

I also think KA feels more or less the same way, so I would be pretty surprised if either of them is traded.

[nfreeman]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I generally agree with you here, but I can see scenarios where Bryson or Asplund end up in trades to upgrade other areas.  Once Johnson signs (if?) Bryson becomes moveable.  Asplund can also become expendable if KA signs a center for the KO line.  Personally I’d rather trade Girgensons over Asplund, but I don’t see KA moving on from one of his veteran leaders at this point.

I don't agree with this at all.  At least 1 more NHL season will pass before Johnson signs.  Even if the Sabres manage to keep him, he'll almost certainly need at least 1 year in the A -- so at least 2 NHL seasons will elapse before the Sabres will know whether Johnson can handle a regular NHL role.  Meanwhile, Bryson is a guy who has already shown that he can do so, and will presumably improve with more experience over the next 2 seasons while we see what Johnson can do.