2022 Offseason Game Plan

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Of that list, who would teams look at as 1s or 1As? 
Kuemper, Fleury, Campbell for near certainty would be. 

Husso and Desmith have the stats for it, but have either not played enough in a season or only had 1 season where they did.  Holtby is similar with not having played 25 games the past 2 seasons. 
 

Halak the last 3 seasons has played 31, 19 and 17 games.

Greiss and Lankinen both had a .891 save percentage last year.

Jones had .900 as a backup. 
 

It looks like there are 3 good options, with 3 more that SOME teams might deem acceptable. With your trade options, if they do end up moved, it creates a new hole so it likely doesn’t affect the market demand much. I think the top 5-6 goalies will be in high demand, because it drops off really fast in quality.

Your point on tiers is certainly correct.

I see 4 viable UFA starters: Fleury, Husso, Campbell and Kuemper, with Holtby and maybe DeSmith as fallbacks.

Your point on trades is partly right: but Allen, Varlamov, Murray, Georgiev and Talbot are currently backups and wouldn't send their teams in search of a new starter.

I just see Colorado as the only team on there that both needs a real starter and is willing to pay big bucks for one (and they may just decide to platoon somebody with Francouz). Maybe New Jersey?

Buffalo isn't going to give term. Chicago is going to be bad and should just sign a stopgap. Do Edmonton and Toronto really see any of the UFA options as the solution they need to shell out big bucks for? Plus they are so tight against the cap they probably are going to have to make trades instead.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

 

2. Hellebyuk was an RFA, and signed before 2018-2019, so he isn’t exactly a great comparable for UFAs 4 years later. 
 

Yes I agree with what you’re saying. I’m just commenting that Campbell should not get the same percentage of cap as Helle.  UFA or not.  

[sabresparaavida]

3 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Yes I agree with what you’re saying. I’m just commenting that Campbell should not get the same percentage of cap as Helle.  UFA or not.  

In an ideal world, where $ equates evenly to on-ice production, that makes sense, but that just isn’t how the league works. Should McKinnon be making 3.6 million less than Eichel? Obviously not, but you’re never gonna have completely fair contracts across the league. Bobrovsky is making 10 million and is not quite the goalie that Helle is, and was signed as a UFA a few years ago. If you want better goaltending, you can’t really restrict what you’re willing to pay based on one contract of an elite goaltender who’s probably getting paid below market value.

[Porous Five Hole]

3 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

In an ideal world, where $ equates evenly to on-ice production, that makes sense, but that just isn’t how the league works. Should McKinnon be making 3.6 million less than Eichel? Obviously not, but you’re never gonna have completely fair contracts across the league. Bobrovsky is making 10 million and is not quite the goalie that Helle is, and was signed as a UFA a few years ago. If you want better goaltending, you can’t really restrict what you’re willing to pay based on one contract of an elite goaltender who’s probably getting paid below market value.

Again, I agree with you.  
Please tell me who you think is going to give Jack Campbell, a veteran of 70 NHL games, 6M AAV?

[sabresparaavida]

Just now, Porous Five Hole said:

Again, I agree with you.  
Please tell me who you think is going to give Jack Campbell, a veteran of 70 NHL games, 6M AAV?

Depending on the term, I could see him making 5.5 from Buffalo, Edmonton or NJ potentially. If it’s longer term, the numbers will drop.

[Taro T]

36 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Depending on the term, I could see him making 5.5 from Buffalo, Edmonton or NJ potentially. If it’s longer term, the numbers will drop.

Normally would agree w/ this, but we're at an unusual point and IMHO longer term won't necessarily mean lower $'s.  Three years from now there's a very good likelihood the players will have reimbursed the owners for letting the players get more than 50% of revenues in 2020, so the cap could rise fairly substantially (as @tom webster likes to point out) and players aren't necessarily going to drop their AAV expectations significantly, if at all, to gain the security of another guaranteed year of getting paid.

This year & next year could see really u usual contracts being offered to find deals that work for both parties.

[sabresparaavida]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Normally would agree w/ this, but we're at an unusual point and IMHO longer term won't necessarily mean lower $'s.  Three years from now there's a very good likelihood the players will have reimbursed the owners for letting the players get more than 50% of revenues in 2020, so the cap could rise fairly substantially (as @tom webster likes to point out) and players aren't necessarily going to drop their AAV expectations significantly, if at all, to gain the security of another guaranteed year of getting paid.

This year & next year could see really u usual contracts being offered to find deals that work for both parties.

The thought process behind that, is that Campbell has had 1 season as a starter, where he performed quite well. I doubt teams are going to give long term contracts at a high salary when he hasn’t shown sustained success. A 1-2 year deal with 5.5 mil, sure, but I’d be surprised if a team paid him that for 5 years

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/inside-the-sabres-predicting-which-unrestricted-free-agents-return/article_e3bfc97c-dc55-11ec-a33e-63672400cf41.html
I don’t know if we discussed this a few weeks ago when it was first published, but I thought Lance did a pretty good job here.

Forwards:

Eakin - gone

Hayden - returns to fight for the last roster spot vs Murray.  I disagree.  I think he’s gone because Murray is the better player.

Caggiula - no path to a roster spot - gone

MacInnis - returns to play for Amerks

Jankowski - returns as needed center depth.  Starts in Rochester

Malone - Priority re-sign who could challenge for a depth roster spot on the Sabres, but likely an Amerk.  I have always liked Malone and hope he finds a way to make the Sabres.  i doubt however. 

Vinnie - re-signs with the Sabres.  I hope so.

Defense: 

Miller and Butcher - Gone.  Thankfully

Psysk - gone because we need some who can kill penalties and plays a heavier game. I agree.

Davidson - returns to play for the Amerks

Prow - gone

Schuldt - returns to the Amerks.

Goalies:

Anderson - returns to the Sabres in a backup role

Tokarski, Dell and Subban - gone

Overall I agree with most of these predictions.  However Hayden has zero chance of making the Sabres.  I also doubt all 3 of Malone, MacInnis and Jankowski return given the recent additions of prospect Rosen, Kisakov and Cedarqvist, but it’s certainly possible.  I also don’t want Anderson back if KA wants UPL as his partner.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

On 6/15/2022 at 2:35 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/inside-the-sabres-predicting-which-unrestricted-free-agents-return/article_e3bfc97c-dc55-11ec-a33e-63672400cf41.html
I don’t know if we discussed this a few weeks ago when it was first published, but I thought Lance did a pretty good job here.

Forwards:

Eakon - gone

Hayden - returns to fight for the last roster spot vs Murray.  I disagree.  I think he’s gone because Murray is the better player.

Caggiula - no path to a roster spot - gone

MacInnis - returns to play for Amerks

Jankowski - returns as needed center depth.  Starts in Rochester

Malone - Priority re-sign who could challenge for a depth roster spot on the Sabres, but likely an Amerk.  I have always liked Malone and hope he finds a way to make the Sabres.  i doubt however. 

Vinnie - re-signs with the Sabres.  I hope so.

Defense: 

Miller and Butcher - Gone.  Thankfully

Psysk - gone because we need some who can kill penalties and plays a heavier game. I agree.

Davidson - returns to play for the Amerks

Prow - gone

Schuldt - returns to the Amerks.

Goalies:

Anderson - returns to the Sabres in a backup role

Tokarski, Dell and Subban - gone

Overall I agree with most of these predictions.  However Hayden has zero chance of making the Sabres.  I also doubt all 3 of Malone, MacInnis and Jankowski return given the recent additions of prospect Rosen, Kisakov and Cedarqvist, but it’s certainly possible.  I also don’t want Anderson back if KA wants UPL as his partner.

 

I can mention that Malone was the next call up to Buffalo in December before He was diagnosed with Covid 

[Marvin]

On 6/15/2022 at 2:35 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/inside-the-sabres-predicting-which-unrestricted-free-agents-return/article_e3bfc97c-dc55-11ec-a33e-63672400cf41.html
I don’t know if we discussed this a few weeks ago when it was first published, but I thought Lance did a pretty good job here.

Forwards:

Eakon - gone

Hayden - returns to fight for the last roster spot vs Murray.  I disagree.  I think he’s gone because Murray is the better player.

Caggiula - no path to a roster spot - gone

MacInnis - returns to play for Amerks

Jankowski - returns as needed center depth.  Starts in Rochester

Malone - Priority re-sign who could challenge for a depth roster spot on the Sabres, but likely an Amerk.  I have always liked Malone and hope he finds a way to make the Sabres.  i doubt however. 

Vinnie - re-signs with the Sabres.  I hope so.

Defense: 

Miller and Butcher - Gone.  Thankfully

Psysk - gone because we need some who can kill penalties and plays a heavier game. I agree.

Davidson - returns to play for the Amerks

Prow - gone

Schuldt - returns to the Amerks.

Goalies:

Anderson - returns to the Sabres in a backup role

Tokarski, Dell and Subban - gone

Overall I agree with most of these predictions.  However Hayden has zero chance of making the Sabres.  I also doubt all 3 of Malone, MacInnis and Jankowski return given the recent additions of prospect Rosen, Kisakov and Cedarqvist, but it’s certainly possible.  I also don’t want Anderson back if KA wants UPL as his partner.

 

I think Pysyk stays as 7D.

Given the state of our goalie youth, I can see any or all of Tokarski, Houser, and Subban in the minors if we don't get significantly better NHL goaltending. 

[thewookie1]

WPG offers you Nate Schmidt and NYR’s 1st for Olofsson; do you take it?

[Eleven]

On 6/13/2022 at 11:42 AM, dudacek said:

I see 4 viable UFA starters: Fleury, Husso, Campbell and Kuemper, with Holtby and maybe DeSmith as fallbacks.

Let's work with this.  There is NO reason not to throw money for one year at MAF.  All the folks who want to send prospects to Chicago for Kane for one year would do well to re-think; the Sabres can have MAF for zero assets except for money, which they have in spades.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

WPG offers you Nate Schmidt and NYR’s 1st for Olofsson; do you take it?

Maybe

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Let's work with this.  There is NO reason not to throw money for one year at MAF.  All the folks who want to send prospects to Chicago for Kane for one year would do well to re-think; the Sabres can have MAF for zero assets except for money, which they have in spades.  

Why does it have to be either/or?

Also, the Kane thread is predicated on Webster hearing that Kane wants to come to Buffalo and some of us jumping to the conclusion that means he could use his No-trade clause to get here.

Have we had any indication Fleury wants to be here?

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Why does it have to be either/or?

Also, the Kane thread is predicated on Webster hearing that Kane wants to come to Buffalo and some of us jumping to the conclusion that means he could use his No-trade clause to get here.

Have we had any indication Fleury wants to be here?

What, you don't believe Tuch & Kane waxing eloquently about summers in WNY during intermissions have him sold yet?  😉

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Free agency opens on Wednesday.  So far the Sabres haven't really changed the complexation of next year's roster.  

According to cap friendly with the re-signing of Anderson and acquisition of retired Ben Bishop, the Sabres have 7 available roster spots 34 million in max cap space and a little over 14 mill to get to the cap floor.  The 16 contracts listed by Capfriendly include 11 forwards (including Quinn and Bjork), 4 D and 1 G.

Of those 7 available roster slots, 2 are likely to go to key unsigned RFAs are Olofsson (5.5?) and Bryson (1.5?).  Another to Casey Fitzgerald (750k) and another to JJP (855K).  Assuming the above is close on the RFA contracts, we actually only have 3 roster spots available unless Bjork is sent packing.   KA needs to spend 5.4 on these 3 jobs just to get to the cap floor.

So what 3 (4?) jobs are open

1) Goaltender - No surprise there.  It's pretty clear UPL isn't ready and that Anderson should only be a backup.  Good UFAs are very limited at this point.  

2) Defense - even if Casey Fitzgerald makes the team, that leaves up with only 6 D under contract.  I can see  KA actually adding 2 players here.  I would love KA to get at least one top 6 RHD to partner with either Bryson or Power and relegate Fitz to a support role.  Another small question is whether KA goes with 8 D or only 7?

3) Forwards - Once VO re-signs and JJP makes the team, we'll have 13 forwards under contract.  This would in theory leave one opening for a UFA forward or trade acquisition.  There is some wiggle room here as JJP (and or Quinn) can be sent down and Bjork can also be waived if KA finds a better option (which shouldn't be to difficult).  RFAs Routsalainen and Murray and possibly Malone and Biro might also fight for an NHL roster slot.  IMHO, all 4 guys are better than Bjork.   Depending on how things go you could argue there are up to 4 roster spots in play.  I'm nore inclined to think that we'll carry 13 forwards and only change will be moving Bjork off the team.

So how does KA fill these jobs?  I think his strategy is to acquire players dumped by cap strapped teams who are trying to sign bigger prey or just looking for cap relief to re-sign current players.  Teams like SJ, Minn or Montreal come to mind in the second category.

Sadly, I think he'll go cheap on goaltending again.  Comrie just seems like the most likely UFA target or maybe our friend Mike Grier can be convinced to part with one of his 3 NHL goalies.  I guess trades for Allen or Talbot are still possible as well.

While I doubt this happens because of the $ and length of his contract, could KA go after someone like Ryan Ellis?  Is Ellis, who is still recovering from an injured pelvis, on the market now that Philly acquired DeAngelo?  Jan Rutta from Tampa is probably available.  I think Stralman, 35, would be a good stop gap.  Are guys like Braun or Manson on KA's radar?

At forward how likely is it that Vinnie returns?  Could KA really make a splash here and sign Copp?

 

 

  

Edited July 10, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Free agency opens on Wednesday.  So far the Sabres haven't really changed the complex of next year's roster.  

According to cap friendly with the re-signing of Anderson and acquisition of retired Ben Bishop, the Sabres have 7 available roster spots 34 million in max cap space and a little over 14 mill to get to the cap floor.  The 16 contracts listed by Capfriendly include 11 forwards (including Quinn and Bjork), 4 D and 1 G.

Of those 7 available roster slots, 2 are likely to go to key unsigned RFAs are Olofsson (5.5?) and Bryson (1.5?).  Another to Casey Fitzgerald (750k) and another to JJP (855K).  Assuming the above is close on the RFA contracts, we actually only have 3 roster spots available and still need unless Bjork is sent packing.   KA needs to spend 5.4 on these 3 jobs just to get to the cap floor.

So what 3 (4?) jobs are open

1) Goaltender - No surprise there.  It's pretty clear UPL isn't ready and that Anderson should only be a backup.  Good UFAs are very limited at this point.  

2) Defense - even if Casey Fitzgerald makes the team, that leaves up with only 6 D under contract.  I can see  KA actually adding 2 players here.  I would love KA to get at least one top 6 RHD to partner with either Bryson or Power and relegate Fitz to a support role.

3) Forwards - Once VO re-signs and JJP makes the team, we'll have 13 forwards under contract.  There is some wiggle room here as JJP (and or Quinn) can be sent down and Bjork can also be waived if KA finds a better option (which shouldn't be to difficult).  RFAs Routsalainen and Murray and possible Malone and Biro might also fight for an NHL roster slot.  IMHO, all 4 guys are better than Bjork.  

So how does KA will these jobs?  I think his strategy is to acquire players dumped by cap strapped teams who are trying to sign bigger prey or just looking for cap relief to re-sign current players.  Teams like SJ, Minn or Montreal come to mind in the second category.

Sadly, I think he'll go cheap on goaltending again.  Comrie just seems like the most likely UFA target or maybe our friend Mike Grier can be convinced to part with one of his 3 NHL goalies.  I guess trades for Allen or Talbot are still possible as well.

While I doubt this happens because of the $ and length of his contract,  could KA go after someone like Ryan Ellis?  Is Ellis, who is still recovering from his injured pelvis, on the market now that Philly acquired DeAngelo?  Jan Rutta from Tampa is probably available.  I think Stralman, 35, would be a good stop gap.  Are guys like Braun or Manson on KA's radar?

At forward how likely is it that Vinnie returns?  Could KA really make a splash here and sign Copp?

 

 

  

I doubt we even bother with Copp based on his ask of 5/6 years 5.5+mil (plus he likely wants to go to a contender)

Philly would need to give us their 1st next year to get us to take Ellis's contract.

As for goalie; I think the league as a whole is in a bind right now with a lack of quality goalies (or perhaps skill has grown so much it has eclipsed most average goalies) We need a goalie but the supply isn't exactly great. Our best, and most likely, targets would be Comrie and Adin Hill. I'd rather have Reimer but I can't see SJS offering him. Talbot and Allen's availability are a question marks.  

To be honest, I'm starting to think Adams isn't going cheap as much as doing the best he can without making a trade out of desperation. (Colorado traded a 1st to get Kuemper; if they hadn't won the Cup it would of been a complete waste) KA may honestly want Campbell, Husso, Kuemper, etc but even at 2x7mil they may just want contenders or contract lengths in the 4+ range which isn't worth it. Goalies are such a difficult player type to get a semblance of consistency from. A 1x1.5mil goalie is just as likely to outperform a 6x6mil goalie. The consistent goalies are so rare that only Vasy in TB can be relied on to be good next year. (All the youngsters like Shesterkin and Sorokin have 1 great year and are going into Year 2, Price is broken, Bob is a wildly swinging pendulum, etc) The league seems to lack many "Anderson" types (when he was younger) which are rarely Vezina worthy level goalies but are incredibly consistent at an above average level. The vast number of starting goalies in the league now only play 40 to 50 games, and are consistently inconsistent. For instance Markstrom was great; unless he was playing Edmonton in which he turned into Dell. Hell, just 3 or 4 years ago Dell was a solid goalie who actually helped make Jones get bought out by SJS.  

Edited July 10, 2022 by thewookie1

[GASabresIUFAN]

@thewookie1 The goaltending issue is why KA's wait and see doesn't work.  He needed to be more aggressive here like Yzerman and Sakic (even if you don't like Sakic's decision).  I agree goalies generally aren't reliable and that there isn't enough quality goaltending to go around. It's why when you have a decent one you lock them up.  For example, Ullmark's save % that last 3 years is .915, .917 and .917.   

Now we are again fighting for scraps.  Maybe winning cures this problem, but it's hard to see the team making huge further strides with some help in goal.  The best outcome is probably Comrie, who at 26, still has time to establish himself as a No. 1 goalie and may just be a diamond in the rough.

You mentioned Jones earlier.  He has been exceedingly mediocre the last 4 years, but that was behind two defensively challenged teams (SJ and Philly).  While the Sabres aren't great in their zone they are markedly improved and should be better again next season.  Could Jones, 32, under Bales and an improving defense, end up being the stop gap to Levi?  My guess is that if KA wants someone who can play 40-50 games, he could be at the top of KA's list.

Edited July 10, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is a kill two birds with one stone idea.  What would we have to give Montreal for Petry and Allen?  Petry, 34, has 3 years left a $6.25 (also a M-NTC) and Allen, 31, one year left at 2.875.  

[thewookie1]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@thewookie1 The goaltending issue is why KA's wait and see doesn't work.  He needed to be more aggressive here like Yzerman and Sakic (even if you don't like Sakic's decision).  I agree goalies generally aren't reliable and that there isn't enough quality goaltending to go around. It's why when you have a decent one you lock them up.  For example, Ullmark's save % that last 3 years is .915, .917 and .917.   

Now we are again fighting for scraps.  Maybe winning cures this problem, but it's hard to see the team making huge further strides with some help in goal.  The best outcome is probably Comrie, who at 26, still has time to establish himself as a No. 1 goalie and may just be a diamond in the rough.

You mentioned Jones earlier.  He has been exceedingly mediocre the last 4 years, but that was behind two defensively challenged teams (SJ and Philly).  While the Sabres aren't great in their zone they are markedly improved and should be better again next season.  Could Jones, 32, under Bales and an improving defense, end up being the stop gap to Levi?  My guess is that if KA wants someone who can play 40-50 games, he could be at the top of KA's list.

Zero interest in Jones, he’s a literal sieve in net. 
 

Ullmark’s issue was availability versus on ice play. You can’t throw money at a “starter” who averages 30 games a year. 
 

Trading a 1st is out of the question.

I’d offer VGK’s 2nd for Talbot and a 4th then extend him 1 more year at 5 mil. I’d make the same offer for Reimer

The issue with trading for UFA rights is if they don’t sign then you waste an asset. Plus you are effectively at a disadvantage in negotiations due to that hanging over your head.

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is a kill two birds with one stone idea.  What would we have to give Montreal for Petry and Allen?  Petry, 34, has 3 years left a $6.25 (also a M-NTC) and Allen, 31, one year left at 2.875.  

VGK’s 2nd straight up, then pray Petry bounces into his old form

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

 

VGK’s 2nd straight up, then pray Petry bounces into his old form

That is what I was thinking as well.  It's a huge risk on Petry, but with the lack of RHD in our system it is worth kicking the tires.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Well Vinnie returns.  

13 forwards now under contract plus RFA VO

6 D under contract including Fitz, but only one G.

53.5 mill spent, 9 Mill so go

When he re-signs VO for about 5.5, that will leave 2 roster spots (unless Bjork is waived) for at least one D and a starting goaltender.