2022 Offseason Game Plan

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Palat is a UFA this offseason...

PK Subban would be a Numminen/Patrick in terms of type of player. And that'd be fine if the rest of the D-corps was different.

But James Patrick joined a D of: Smehlik - Zhitnik; Shannon - McKee; Patrick - Woolley; (Wilson, Grand-Pierre).  They had the veteran defense-first guys already: Smehlik, Shannon, and another two D-first kids in McKee and Wilson. (And would swap Wilson for an even savvier D-first Warrener.)

Numminen essentially directly replaced James Patrick. The season before Numminen joined, the D-corps was: Zhitnik - Kalinin; Tallinder - Campbell;  McKee - Patrick (Fitzpatrick, Delmore, B Brown (acquired late), Jillson). Zhitnik, ancient Patrick, and baby Campbell being the only true offensive guys there.

This Sabres team has Dahlin, Power, and Bryson will be offense first. Muel and Joker are the D-first guys. They need a 3rd (and better than Fitz/Pysyk). Subban is better than those two... but he's not a shutdown D.

I understand this line of thought, that a real defensive D is needed.  That wasn’t really the subject of my post.  Although I do think PKbrings some interesting things to the table for this D group.

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

I have no memory of Patrick, but I don’t recall Numminen ever being considered a defensive defenseman.

By all accounts, Subban reinvent his game this past season into a more conservative, reliable presence.

I understand that a defensive defenseman who will be a top PKer seems preferable, but I can see how PK could bring a lot to the table too.  He was a top offensive defenseman for a long time.  He has been under a lot of pressure situations and has a lot of experience in this league.  I feel like he could probably help guide our own young, offensive defenseman for a couple of years.

This is where I will defer to the front office and scouts. There have been a lot of mixed messages about what kind of guy Subban is like in the room. If the FO think he would be a good fit then I will trust in them.

[thewookie1]

14 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Way better than Eakin.

This is his first time in the playoffs but he has played well. He scored the game winner in the World Championships last year for Canada. He played in the World Juniors back in the day. Wore an A in Ottawa.

Wrong guy, I do like Paul too but Palat is the winger

[DarthEbriate]

20 minutes ago, Curt said:

I understand this line of thought, that a real defensive D is needed.  That wasn’t really the subject of my post.  Although I do think PKbrings some interesting things to the table for this D group.

We'd need someone with the right website access/subscriptions and know-how to grab all of PK's fancy stats for possession and controlled transitions. He would be an upgrade over Fitzgerald in the 5/6 pairing across the board (and possibly displace Joker to the 3rd pair, which would be a good thing). He'd be a very good mentor for offensive-minded, highly-touted guys like Dahlin and Power and how manage the expectations and also to hone their shots. And my understanding is he's been a very good face of the franchise and community guy on his various teams. He can continue building the interest in the new core as an ambassador-of-the-game type.

For the defensive D, I would just like someone other than Muel who is going to be on PK1 and block oodles of shots and take that continuous abuse. I don't want Dahlin missing 2 months because he's got a bum ankle from a dozen shot blocks while killing penalties in November.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

Who are you willing to give up that is actually worth a 2nd pair RD that fits our system?

Many of these guys are UFAs and would cost nothing but salary.  Cost for the non-UFAs would depend on age, salary, term, and how desperate the seller is to get the cap space open.  Take Orlov for example.  He’s 30, has one year left at 5.1 and is still a very effective player. He’d likely cost the 41st pick, plus a pick next year.  I’d pay that price for him.
 

Honestly, Stralman, a UFA, is the most Teppo-ish player available.  Anton can still add offense, but is still good defensively.  He’d be a perfect mentor for the young D.  At 35 he is a better player at both ends of the ice than Subban.  

[thewookie1]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Many of these guys are UFAs and would cost nothing but salary.  Cost for the non-UFAs would depend on age, salary, term, and how desperate the seller is to get the cap space open.  Take Orlov for example.  He’s 30, has one year left at 5.1 and is still a very effective player. He’d likely cost the 41st pick, plus a pick next year.  I’d pay that price for him.
 

Honestly, Stralman, a UFA, is the most Teppo-ish player available.  Anton can still add offense, but is still good defensively.  He’d be a perfect mentor for the young D.  At 35 he is a better player at both ends of the ice than Subban.  

The thing is that Orlov would be a 1 year rental and I honestly don’t see Adams looking for a rental player requiring a 2nd and a 2023 pick to bring in. Plus I’m hesitant to think Washington deals one of their better Dman.
 

Stralman used to be a great Dman, this past year he had a 38.9 CF%, granted he was used 70% in Dzone face offs. Back in Florida he was used in more traditional 50/50 face offs zone minutes and was only a 42 CF% both years. Arizona and Florida were bad, but can Stralman turn back the clock to his Tampa days?

 

Subban plays at 56% Ozone and is hovering around 48.5 CF% 

 

In my honest opinion, if we take Subban I’d want him to be out 3RD and play with a guy like Ian Cole. 

[Weave]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Many of these guys are UFAs and would cost nothing but salary.  Cost for the non-UFAs would depend on age, salary, term, and how desperate the seller is to get the cap space open.  Take Orlov for example.  He’s 30, has one year left at 5.1 and is still a very effective player. He’d likely cost the 41st pick, plus a pick next year.  I’d pay that price for him.
 

Honestly, Stralman, a UFA, is the most Teppo-ish player available.  Anton can still add offense, but is still good defensively.  He’d be a perfect mentor for the young D.  At 35 he is a better player at both ends of the ice than Subban.  

So you are not willing to give up much to obtain a 2nd pair, defensively sound  D man that fits our system.

Prepare to be underwhelmed.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Subban couldn’t play top 4 minutes with NJ and now people want him to pair with Power and play top 4 minutes here.  That makes zero scene.  Power needs a smart defensive partner, not a has been offensive D.  

Where did I say play him with Power?  PK is not that guy.  They need to find that guy too, or throw Power to the wolves and let him figure it out.

PK is bottom 6 and PK.  He's a mentor for all the young kids.  F and D.  That's all I am wanting him for.

[GASabresIUFAN]

38 minutes ago, Weave said:

So you are not willing to give up much to obtain a 2nd pair, defensively sound  D man that fits our system.

Prepare to be underwhelmed.

The best player available is Dumba.  I don't see KA making a big move to acquire him.  I'm probably willing to do much more than KA, but I suspect KA is going to go for smaller deals to maintain his assets while hopefully improving the team.   Also Teppo and Lydman were small deals at the time, they just were master strokes.  While I'm not sure KA will get that lucky, I do believe that Stralman could end up being a Teppo kind of value pick up.  

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Where did I say play him with Power?  PK is not that guy.  They need to find that guy too, or throw Power to the wolves and let him figure it out.

PK is bottom 6 and PK.  He's a mentor for all the young kids.  F and D.  That's all I am wanting him for.

In Power's introductory stint with the Sabres he handled himself very well. As each game went by you could see his confidence rising and assertiveness increase. To no one's surprise he made mistakes. But it was evident that he not only was not overwhelmed but that he was a positive factor. During this period he was paired with Joki. I thought they worked well together. Is this pairing going to be long term?  I'm not sure. I'm less adverse to it than many are. 

It just seems to me that the quest to find a costly second-pairing player to couple with Power that many are clamoring for is not a price that this GM is willing to pay. I foresee the GM bringing in addition defensive help but it is not going be at the high tier that so many are calling for. 

[dudacek]

I don’t expect PK Subban to be the same player he was in 2015.

I also don’t expect him to the same person as a 33-year-old depth defenceman as he was at 25 chasing Norris trophies in the white hot spotlight of Montreal.

I do think he seems like a good human being who’s lived through experiences that should make him an invaluable mentor to Power and Dahlin and our other young D.

And I do think he’s still a good enough player to give us 18 minutes a night in a 4/5 role, an upgrade to Pysyk who costs us nothing but money.

If PK is who I think he is, I can see a lot of sense to this move.

Edited June 12, 2022 by dudacek

[Eleven]

Pernell Karl is one of my favorite non-Sabres of all time, but I'm not sure about this idea right now.

[sabresparaavida]

15 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I agree he will be a major contributor. But I just don't need him to get over 18 min/game this season. If he does, and is worthy of it, all the better. I'm fine with even Bryson getting more 5 on 5 time (as long as it isn't Bryson/Fitz as the 2nd pair). Power can have room to grow while we lean on a Muel-Rasmus pairing. And if we get a vet for Joker, or a vet for Power is the key.

In Power’s 8 games this year, he averaged just over 22 minutes of ice time a game. I really don’t think there’s much chance of him playing 3rd pairing minutes

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

In Power’s 8 games this year, he averaged just over 22 minutes of ice time a game. I really don’t think there’s much chance of him playing 3rd pairing minutes

It was great and he played well. HC Meatballs was going to put Power in all situations. But the 3rd pair was Bryson/Fitz at the end of the season. Depending on health and UFA (we all agree we need a RHD) and as they start playing matchups more (and other coaches have to start matching up against the Sabres to exploit weaknesses otherwise we’ll crush them!), he could find himself on the third pair and still be excellent and gaining momentum while protecting him over the 82-game grind. 

[Digger]

14 hours ago, Curt said:

Why not?  How is it much different?

Perhaps I'm wrong but here's my thoughts on this.  Both Teppo Numminen (2005 - 2009) and James Patrick (1999 - 2004) played out the end of their careers for the Sabres playing for Lindy Ruff.  I think that both were like having an extra coach on the bench during the game.  They both really helped stabilize and improve the defense during their time here.  

I don't think that we are seeing that with PK Subban with New Jersey playing for Lindy Ruff (which is a perfect comparison since Ruff coach all 3 when they were past their best offensive years).  I did not hear Lindy say anything about PK in his end of year press conference.  I also don't see anyone else in New Jersey saying that he's a key player to resign at a lower contract number that he's expected to get.  He is well like by his team mates and I'm sure he could play on the Sabres in a 5/6 role but I don't see the comparison.

[Broken Ankles]

3 hours ago, Digger said:

Perhaps I'm wrong but here's my thoughts on this.  Both Teppo Numminen (2005 - 2009) and James Patrick (1999 - 2004) played out the end of their careers for the Sabres playing for Lindy Ruff.  I think that both were like having an extra coach on the bench during the game.  They both really helped stabilize and improve the defense during their time here.  

I don't think that we are seeing that with PK Subban with New Jersey playing for Lindy Ruff (which is a perfect comparison since Ruff coach all 3 when they were past their best offensive years).  I did not hear Lindy say anything about PK in his end of year press conference.  I also don't see anyone else in New Jersey saying that he's a key player to resign at a lower contract number that he's expected to get.  He is well like by his team mates and I'm sure he could play on the Sabres in a 5/6 role but I don't see the comparison.

To the bold, their GM Said they would not pursue PK at any price.  Goes a step further than saying he is “key” to resign.  All reports are good locker room guy, but what does that say when you are a rebuilding team with $25m+ in cap space and you don’t want a veteran D at 50% or less.  And they need to fill at least one, maybe two spots on the blue line. Should be interesting to see who they sign. If KO was in the last year of his deal, would the Sabres not entertain resigning him to a reasonable extension?  Yes, Kyle had a much better on ice performance but their ages are about the same and perception of veteran presence in the locker room are similar.

  The fact Fitz doesn’t want to sign him is suspect.  For me this pushes him way down on list for RD.  Plan K-M. 

[Hank]

Four years in I don't believe Dahiln needs mentoring. Not on the ice and certainly not off it. I don't believe Power needs mentoring either, but if he does Dahiln should be able to provide it. 

 

I have no interest in PK. In the words of Pi2000, "do better."

[Brawndo]

Lance Lysowski did a mailbag for this AM 

 

Mentioned RFA Ethan Bear as a trade target for RHD

He also mentioned this about Goalies in His Article 

 

There aren’t established goalies in their prime in free agency. There rarely are. Teams sign those guys because there aren’t many in the NHL. Ville Husso, Darcy Kuemper, Marc-Andre Fleury and Jack Campbell are among the top options available next month. The Sabres are going to pursue Husso and Campbell – they went after top goalies last summer – but both have their blemishes and it’s unlikely either will pick Buffalo.

Campbell, according to Evolving-Hockey.com, is projected to receive a six-year contract with a $5.7 million annual cap hit. Husso isn’t much less at $4.96 million over four years. They'll have other suitors, including playoff contenders. And is Adams willing to give a long-term contract to a backup such as Husso after he wouldn’t give a similar deal to Linus Ullmark a year ago? Also, signing a starting goalie to a long-term contract could be enough to discourage Devon Levi and/or Erik Portillo from signing.

In free agency, the Sabres are more likely to target bargain options such as Casey DeSmith, Mikko Koskinen, Eric Comrie and Kevin Lankinen. There are ample trade options. Will the Bruins make Ullmark available if they’re rebuilding? Jonathan Quick, John Gibson, Semyon Varlamov, James Reimer and Adin Hill are a few names to watch.

 

 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Lance Lysowski did a mailbag for this AM 

 

Mentioned RFA Ethan Bear as a trade target for RHD

He also mentioned this about Goalies in His Article 

 

There aren’t established goalies in their prime in free agency. There rarely are. Teams sign those guys because there aren’t many in the NHL. Ville Husso, Darcy Kuemper, Marc-Andre Fleury and Jack Campbell are among the top options available next month. The Sabres are going to pursue Husso and Campbell – they went after top goalies last summer – but both have their blemishes and it’s unlikely either will pick Buffalo.

Campbell, according to Evolving-Hockey.com, is projected to receive a six-year contract with a $5.7 million annual cap hit. Husso isn’t much less at $4.96 million over four years. They'll have other suitors, including playoff contenders. And is Adams willing to give a long-term contract to a backup such as Husso after he wouldn’t give a similar deal to Linus Ullmark a year ago? Also, signing a starting goalie to a long-term contract could be enough to discourage Devon Levi and/or Erik Portillo from signing.

In free agency, the Sabres are more likely to target bargain options such as Casey DeSmith, Mikko Koskinen, Eric Comrie and Kevin Lankinen. There are ample trade options. Will the Bruins make Ullmark available if they’re rebuilding? Jonathan Quick, John Gibson, Semyon Varlamov, James Reimer and Adin Hill are a few names to watch.

 

 

I hope Buffalo shows zero interest in Koskinen or Lankinen. Both are train wrecks in net.

Give me DeSmith and Comrie for a couple years and let’s see if we can pull together a playoff push

[Porous Five Hole]

12 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Lance Lysowski did a mailbag for this AM 

 

Mentioned RFA Ethan Bear as a trade target for RHD

He also mentioned this about Goalies in His Article 

 

There aren’t established goalies in their prime in free agency. There rarely are. Teams sign those guys because there aren’t many in the NHL. Ville Husso, Darcy Kuemper, Marc-Andre Fleury and Jack Campbell are among the top options available next month. The Sabres are going to pursue Husso and Campbell – they went after top goalies last summer – but both have their blemishes and it’s unlikely either will pick Buffalo.

Campbell, according to Evolving-Hockey.com, is projected to receive a six-year contract with a $5.7 million annual cap hit. Husso isn’t much less at $4.96 million over four years. They'll have other suitors, including playoff contenders. And is Adams willing to give a long-term contract to a backup such as Husso after he wouldn’t give a similar deal to Linus Ullmark a year ago? Also, signing a starting goalie to a long-term contract could be enough to discourage Devon Levi and/or Erik Portillo from signing.

In free agency, the Sabres are more likely to target bargain options such as Casey DeSmith, Mikko Koskinen, Eric Comrie and Kevin Lankinen. There are ample trade options. Will the Bruins make Ullmark available if they’re rebuilding? Jonathan Quick, John Gibson, Semyon Varlamov, James Reimer and Adin Hill are a few names to watch.

 

 

I would love to know how evolving hockey has projected these goalie contracts. Contract projections is subscriber only content. 
 

The Campbell projection is a few hundred grand from Hellebuyck AAV money. What the what??

 

Also, Husso has 61 NHL games played over three seasons. That’s now a 5 million AAV player? Not asking you, but asking out loud.  
 

I am very skeptical of both projections.  

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I would love to know how evolving hockey has projected these goalie contracts. Contract projections is subscriber only content. 
 

The Campbell projection is a few hundred grand from Hellebuyck AAV money. What the what??

 

Also, Husso has 61 NHL games played over three seasons. That’s now a 5 million AAV player? Not asking you, but asking out loud.  
 

I am very skeptical of both projections.  

Evolving Hockey is usually very good at this stuff, but I'm with you; I just don't see it.

Mostly it's just because they haven't earned it.

But also from a supply and demand aspect: I know desperate teams tend to find ways to create space, but who are the teams that both want and have the cap space for a $6 million goalie? Colorado? New Jersey?

Then you add the additional lens of thinking one of the available goalies is that guy?

Edited June 13, 2022 by dudacek

[sabresparaavida]

5 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I would love to know how evolving hockey has projected these goalie contracts. Contract projections is subscriber only content. 
 

The Campbell projection is a few hundred grand from Hellebuyck AAV money. What the what??

 

Also, Husso has 61 NHL games played over three seasons. That’s now a 5 million AAV player? Not asking you, but asking out loud.  
 

I am very skeptical of both projections.  

1. It’s UFA, and the best options on the market for each position are always going to be overplayed (unless they are going back to their old team, then they MIGHT take a hometown discount. 
 

2. Hellebyuk was an RFA, and signed before 2018-2019, so he isn’t exactly a great comparable for UFAs 4 years later. 
 

3.  There are a lot of teams that need goaltending this offseason, it looks like it will be a market in favor of the goaltenders as there are more chairs to be filled than there are quality goaltenders to fill them, which will push the prices of the Quality? Goaltenders up.

[sabresparaavida]

I think their number for Husso may be slightly high, but I’d expect the contact for Campbell to come in that neighborhood. It only takes 2 teams to drive the price up for a goalie though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 2 teams thought Husso could sustain the year that he had.

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

1. It’s UFA, and the best options on the market for each position are always going to be overplayed (unless they are going back to their old team, then they MIGHT take a hometown discount. 
 

2. Hellebyuk was an RFA, and signed before 2018-2019, so he isn’t exactly a great comparable for UFAs 4 years later. 
 

3.  There are a lot of teams that need goaltending this offseason, it looks like it will be a market in favor of the goaltenders as there are more chairs to be filled than there are quality goaltenders to fill them, which will push the prices of the Quality? Goaltenders up.

UFAs of note: Fleury, Kuemper, Griess, Jones, Holtby, Campbell, Halak, Desmith, Lankinen, Husso

Others who may be available: Matt Murray, John Gibson, Simeon Varlamov, Alexander Georgiev, Robin Lehner, Peter Mrazek, Ilya Samsonov. Maybe Cam Talbot, and Jake Allen depending on what happens with Fleury and Price?

Who are the teams shopping for starting goalies?

Definitely Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey, Toronto, Edmonton, Colorado.

Probably some other teams might be looking for upgrades or shakeups, which will increase demand, but also displace some current starters.

Colorado will get their pick, but Edmonton and Toronto don't have much cap space and the other 3 won't be the most desirable destinations for some.

I guess I don't see it as much of a seller's market as you do. Of course we've all seen GMs make bad decisions.

Edited June 13, 2022 by dudacek

[sabresparaavida]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

UFAs of note: Fleury, Kuemper, Griess, Jones, Holtby, Campbell, Halak, Desmith, Lankinen, Husso

Others who may be available: Matt Murray, John Gibson, Simeon Varlamov, Alexander Georgiev, Robin Lehner, Peter Mrazek, Ilya Samsonov. Maybe Cam Talbot, and Jake Allen depending on what happens with Fleury and Price?

Who are the teams shopping for goalies?

Definitely Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey, Toronto, Edmonton.

Probably some other teams might be looking for upgrades or shakeups, which will increase demand, but also displace some current starters.

I guess I don't see it as much of a seller's market as you do.

Of that list, who would teams look at as 1s or 1As? 
Kuemper, Fleury, Campbell for near certainty would be. 

Husso and Desmith have the stats for it, but have either not played enough in a season or only had 1 season where they did.  Holtby is similar with not having played 25 games the past 2 seasons. 
 

Halak the last 3 seasons has played 31, 19 and 17 games.

Greiss and Lankinen both had a .891 save percentage last year.

Jones had .900 as a backup. 
 

It looks like there are 3 good options, with 3 more that SOME teams might deem acceptable. With your trade options, if they do end up moved, it creates a new hole so it likely doesn’t affect the market demand much. I think the top 5-6 goalies will be in high demand, because it drops off really fast in quality.