2022 Offseason Game Plan

[Carmel Corn]

5 hours ago, Weave said:

Hot take:

A good to very good young player is going to be moved in this offseason for a very good veteran player.  Getting to the cap floor will be partially why.

A bunch of us are going to be really disappointed and vocal about the player that goes, but in the end it’ll be a good hockey trade.

My forbidden list includes Samuelsson as an untouchable (please).  

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, Weave said:

Hot take:

A good to very good young player is going to be moved in this offseason for a very good veteran player.  Getting to the cap floor will be partially why.

A bunch of us are going to be really disappointed and vocal about the player that goes, but in the end it’ll be a good hockey trade.

I don’t think this is a hot take in general, but with two caveats:

Cap space may enable it, but it will have nothing to do with getting to the floor.

The player being moved is being moved because the team has decided he is not going to be a core player moving forward and the player being acquired is; in other words, the team will not think as highly of the player as the fans do. (I disagree with Triumph’s take on Krebs, but agree that type of move is entirely feasible.)

Adams has been blunt about this year being about deciding who is core and who is not. To my mind, the players he is referring to mostly are Olofsson, Thompson, Asplund, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Bryson and (perhaps) Fitz, Mule and UPL. But maybe they figure they are in a position to judge some younger guys as well.

Edited April 19, 2022 by dudacek

[triumph_communes]

Oh my Bryson and Fitz better not even play next season. They aren’t ‘core’

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Krebs gonna get moved to a team who can’t handle the cap hit. 

If Krebs wasn't added to the Jack deal I doubt that a deal with Vegas would have been made. It's understood that this youngster needs to get stronger but as a Sabre he is a keeper.

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

When did center become a need?

It’s been identified as a need in many of my texts.  I would like to replace Eakin with a solid 2-way center, that wins draws and can shut down another teams top line.  

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

It’s been identified as a need in many of my texts.  I would like to replace Eakin with a solid 2-way center, that wins draws and can shut down another teams top line.  

I think Adams and Granato are molding Cozens to be their matchup guy; whether that’s as the 1C, 2C or 3C is TBD.

i honestly have no idea at this time how Krebs, Mitts and Thompson will be utilized in the long run, but Thompson has proven to me he can be a legit top 6 centre.

To me, they guy you’re looking for is a short-term need, but not a core piece.

I suspect they will pick a centre in the first who will have a similar level projection to their current 4. It will be interesting to see how his development and theirs affects the direction of the roster down the road.

[Pimlach]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Adams and Granato are molding Cozens to be their matchup guy; whether that’s as the 1C, 2C or 3C is TBD.

i honestly have no idea at this time how Krebs, Mitts and Thompson will be utilized in the long run, but Thompson has proven to me he can be a legit top 6 centre.

To me, they guy you’re looking for is a short-term need, but not a core piece.

I suspect they will pick a centre in the first who will have a similar level projection to their current 4. It will be interesting to see how his development and theirs affects the direction of the roster down the road.

Yes, I’m looking for a solid vet that has playoff experience and savvy.  If not, the role could be Cozens, if he can do it. That leaves Mitts, Krebs and TT for the other lines and no depth at C. 

Bringing in a center kicks someone to wing, making great competition with the current group, plus Quinn and Peterka. 

We have tons of cap room.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Pimlach

[SABRES 0311]

8 hours ago, kas23 said:

I’m sure there was an equal number of people on here saying the same thing about Tage last year. I’m not saying Mitts is going to take a miraculous 180, but I think it’s a bit too early to be closing the book on some of our young players. 

I was one of those who doubted Tage. Hope I’m wrong again.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

It’s been identified as a need in many of my texts.  I would like to replace Eakin with a solid 2-way center, that wins draws and can shut down another teams top line.  

So we need to teach Asplund to win 55% of his draws. Actually sounds doable. 

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

So we need to teach Asplund to win 55% of his draws. Actually sounds doable. 

That’s an option.  I just feel we need to be better at center.  Too many times DG thought Eakin was the best option. I want to improve the team over this year.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Pimlach

[thewookie1]

Here's a guy, Chris Tanev. Defensive defenseman, RHD older but still very effective at what he does. Calgary is going to have a cap crunch on their hands this offseason. Any thoughts? 

[Pimlach]

28 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Here's a guy, Chris Tanev. Defensive defenseman, RHD older but still very effective at what he does. Calgary is going to have a cap crunch on their hands this offseason. Any thoughts? 

Adams will ask himself and his staff:   Does Tanev brings more than Pysyk, and at what price?  Does he improve our 5/6 defenseman?   Does he add to the room?  

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Adams will ask himself and his staff:   Does Tanev brings more than Pysyk, and at what price?  Does he improve our 5/6 defenseman?   Does he add to the room?  

Tanev is better than Pysyk at everything on the ice and is as good a teammate as you will find.

Doubt you could find a better match for what the Sabres are looking for.

Doubt he is available.

[jsb]

Tanev has 2 years left on his contract for 4.5M and a M-NTC. He's not waiving that to come here. Now Gubbranson is another story, UFA, cheaper, plays the PK well and is gritty. Hopefully losing Pysyk is a no-brainer. Just let him go. There'll be much better options out there than him.

Edited April 19, 2022 by jsb
NMC to M-NTC

[GASabresIUFAN]

Despite having two 30 goal scorers, 2 more 20 goal scorers and 8 total forwards with 10 or more goals, the Sabres’ 216 goals (2.77 gf/gp) is significantly below the league’s 3.09 gf/gp average.  We aren’t even close to the elite teams.  Florida has 317 goals already (in 75 games).  Most playoff caliber teams have at least 250-260 gf at this points.  

Like defense we need to find at least another 40 goals.

The good news is since 3/1 we have scored 75 goals in the last 24 games (3.13). 

In theory KA could take a pretty easy route to build his forward group next year.  Assuming JJP and Quinn make the team and he re-signs RFA Olofsson, the Sabres will have 13 forwards under contract for about 37 mill. 

Lines might look something like this

Skinner Tnt Tuch

VO Mitts Quinn

Z Asplund KO

Krebs Cozens JJP (Bjork)

I don’t see this as a typical 1-4 line designation.  I see the 2-4th lines getting nearly the same PT as each other with PT given based on who is going well.  Balance PT with balanced production.

Seems simple, bring up the kids, but otherwise keep the status quo and let the development of the kids increase the GF to a playoff level. 

I’m not sure that’s the right strategy any longer.  I think guys like Vinnie and even Eakin made a positive impact of the roster on the off the ice (ok Eakin’s was more off the ice until paired with Z and KO).  We also need to replace UFA Eakin’s contributions in the faceoff circle and PK.  I also don’t think Bjork has a place on this roster going forward.  

After find goaltending and a veteran RHD, I believe KA 3rd priority should be upgrading Eakin with a 2 way center to center Z and KO.  I’m willing to include Asplund to help make a trade.  I’d also like to keep Vinnie as additional depth especially if we jettison Bjork and or trade Asplund.

Others have discussed making a bigger splash and possibly moving on from Mitts, or Vo or even Cozens.  I don’t think KA is willing to be that aggressive at this point.  Mitts is on a 50 point pace since 3/1 and VO has 13g, 20 pts in his last 24 games (68 pt pace) since his wrist got healthy.  Mitts and Cozens are also on team friendly contracts.  

Finding the right center for KO and Z should be interesting.  Don’t forget, KA needs to spend at least 11 mill on the goalie, RHD and center to get us to the cap floor.

Edited April 19, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[elijah]

Started this thread right after I posted a little rant in the other offseason thread, figured this one would be better to relocate that post to.. 

 

 

I don’t understand the hesitancy to add a forward because the Sabres ‘already have their core.’ That’s utterly ridiculous in my eyes, why is a team with an 11 season playoff drought granting roster spots to guys that’ve played less than 3 games in the NHL? 

JJP has looked fantastic, Quinn has looked even better but neither has played any substantial time in the NHL yet and yet I keep seeing fans/media alike wanting to stay away from a forward in free agency. 

Say you resign Olofsson, UPL, Anderson, Bryson and Hinostroza, you should still be roughly around $25M-$30M in cap space with a lineup of

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Krebs - Cozens - Quinn

Olofsson - Mitts - JJP

Girgensons - Asplund - Okposo

Bjork, Hinostroza

 

Dahlin - Jokiharju

Power - ?

Samuelsson - Bryson

Fitzgerald 

 

? 

Lukkonen

Anderson

 

From there you can still add a 1A/B goalie for what, $5M-$8M AAV? (Husso, Keumper, Campbell). Add that other top 4 RHD for $4M-$8M AAV? (Letang, Manson, Gudbranson). 

Say you’re adding two guys at $8M AAV at those two spots on the high end, and you STILL have $10M-$15M in cap space. 

Why are we so against adding a Reilly Smith or an Ondrej Palat on low term with that extra money? Force JJP and Hinostroza to your 13th & 14th forwards spots instead of just handing it to them. 

There’s loads of cap space AND depth on the team for the first time in forever. Even the 13th and 14th forwards this year played 44 and 36 games respectively — granted there was a lot of turnover and injury this year. But still, what’s wrong with JJP playing ~40 games while growing into a role and comfort, rather than forcing him onto the team just because we have a perceived core.

What’s best case scenario? JJP shines and we have more depth and talent and have to force someone out for more assets, or a package out to bring back some star power to tag along with the depth? 

Worst case scenario? Skinner, Olofsson & Thompson could all realistically regress scoring and Quinn & JJP may not translate immediately, Cozens, Mitts & Krebs could have a stagnant develop year and not keep progressing forwards. It’s easy to sit here now riding a hot streak and say the forward core is set, but imagine the outlash if the kids don’t develop at the same pace right now and we’re sitting here at game 80 with 70 points next year. 

Why not use this extra cap to bring someone in on short term and create more competition and depth. Just doesn’t make sense to me the willingness to sit still with the talent we have now rather than building more with the cap space we have. You don’t have to ‘build’ the team through FA, you can sign players on short term. If they don’t want to come to Buffalo without long term, the caps still there to utilize and overpay for a year or two with out effecting long term plans 🤷‍♂️ 

[GASabresIUFAN]

So where do we net gain 40 goals from next season.

We are losing about 34 goals from guys who likely won’t be here next season (Bjork, Caggilua, Miller, Butcher etc…. Including Hinostroza).  That means the returnees plus any additions will need to score an additional 70-75 goals for us to make the playoffs.

Starting with the kids, i can see 30 goals coming Quinn (20) and JJP (10).  The rest from full season and improvement.  Full seasons from Tuch and Mitts should add about 22 goals from their production this season.  I can also see Krebs scoring 15 next year, up from this year’s 7 YTD. Power should add at least 5 goals.  Cozens hopefully continues to improves and moves from his current 13 to 20.  

To guess Quinn’s totals I used Vanek’s 1st NHL season as a proxy, although Quinn has been much more dominate.  For JJP I used Roy’s first season in 2002/3 (he was also 20) as a proxy realizing the JJP should exceed those numbers if he plays 70+ games.

Edited April 19, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

@elijah  I’d say the biggest obstacle to KA going out and bring big $ UFAs in is that that’s not his stated plan.  I also believe there may be budget constraints on the actual $ he can spend on the roster.  

That isn’t to say he won’t spend some money this summer.  He only has 42 million currently committed to 15 players next season without Quinn, VO and JJP.  That’s plenty of money to spend $ on goaltending, veteran D help and another forward or two.  

As to Quinn and JJP, Quinn is certainly making this team next fall. He’d be in the NHL right now if it wasn’t to the Sabres advantage to let his contract slide again.  JJP could return to Rochester, but 19 year olds who score a pt/g in the A rarely return the following season.

[thewookie1]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Tanev is better than Pysyk at everything on the ice and is as good a teammate as you will find.

Doubt you could find a better match for what the Sabres are looking for.

Doubt he is available.

My guess would be he might end up available due to their cap crunch this offseason. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Who is available who is an upgrade over Eakin?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who is available who is an upgrade over Eakin?

Any ufa center in the league

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Any ufa center in the league

Let me rephrase.  Who is available, adds veteran leadership, plays a solid two way game and can win the majority of their face offs?

Edited April 20, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[kas23]

4 hours ago, elijah said:

I don’t understand the hesitancy to add a forward because the Sabres ‘already have their core.’ That’s utterly ridiculous in my eyes, why is a team with an 11 season playoff drought granting roster spots to guys that’ve played less than 3 games in the NHL? 

JJP has looked fantastic, Quinn has looked even better but neither has played any substantial time in the NHL yet and yet I keep seeing fans/media alike wanting to stay away from a forward in free agency. 

 

Neither has played any substantial time in the NHL, so they shouldn’t? I see that you are lumping Quinn in with JJP. That’s ok. But, everything Quinn has done this year says he deserves a spot in the NHL. He’s playing at 1.4 ppg. What exactly do you expect from him? Now, JJP is slightly below 1 ppg. I wouldn’t expect a spot to be handed to him, but he should be given every opportunity to win one come camp next year. 

[elijah]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@elijah  I’d say the biggest obstacle to KA going out and bring big $ UFAs in is that that’s not his stated plan.  I also believe there may be budget constraints on the actual $ he can spend on the roster.  

That isn’t to say he won’t spend some money this summer.  He only has 42 million currently committed to 15 players next season without Quinn, VO and JJP.  That’s plenty of money to spend $ on goaltending, veteran D help and another forward or two.  

As to Quinn and JJP, Quinn is certainly making this team next fall. He’d be in the NHL right now if it wasn’t to the Sabres advantage to let his contract slide again.  JJP could return to Rochester, but 19 year olds who score a pt/g in the A rarely return the following season.

Do constraints actually exist though? As a Bills fan first, I feel like I’ve heard that story too many times and then suddenly when you’re good and you get a competent GM those ‘restraints’ are no longer spoken of. Not too mention at the deadline he said there were no restraints and he could use the cap space freely. Granted it didn’t turn into anything, but I’m going to choose to take his statements as truthful. 

Also, maybe I haven’t listened to enough of his interviews but regardless of his stated plan, shouldn’t the plan at the end of the day be to win? They have LOADS of cap space and it just doesn’t make sense to not use it. Does Peterka look great? Absolutely. Does that mean he should have a penciled in roster spot? Absolutely not. 

I don’t see any issue with bringing in a middle 6 40-50 point guy on short term, 1-2 years, and an inflated contract with the extra cap space we have to build competition and talent. If we want to see Peterka so bad, and we think Peterka is so good, then he should reasonably earn a spot on his own without being penciled in, no? 

So he earns a spot and gives us another forward as an expendable asset to trade for more roster improvement, what’s the problem with that? 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So where do we net gain 40 goals from next season.

We are losing about 34 goals from guys who likely won’t be here next season (Bjork, Caggilua, Miller, Butcher etc…. Including Hinostroza).  That means the returnees plus any additions will need to score an additional 70-75 goals for us to make the playoffs.

Starting with the kids, i can see 30 goals coming Quinn (20) and JJP (10).  The rest from full season and improvement.  Full seasons from Tuch and Mitts should add about 22 goals from their production this season.  I can also see Krebs scoring 15 next year, up from this year’s 7 YTD. Power should add at least 5 goals.  Cozens hopefully continues to improves and moves from his current 13 to 20.  

To guess Quinn’s totals I used Vanek’s 1st NHL season as a proxy, although Quinn has been much more dominate.  For JJP I used Roy’s first season in 2002/3 (he was also 20) as a proxy realizing the JJP should exceed those numbers if he plays 70+ games.

Why do you expect Hinostroza to not be back.  He, & Pysyk, are 2 guys Adams said he specifically targeted last off season.

Am kind of pencilling him in for opening night w/ Peterka filling his slot when the team is fully healthy by Thanksgiving (the US version), but w/ injuries keeping Vinnie in the lineup.

Agree there's a strong likelihood they go outside the roster for the 4C.