Sabres O/U season points: 67.5

[Andrew Amerk]

A roster full of kids with youthful exuberance and camaraderie knowing they won’t be the champs with a good coach?

I will take the over  

 

[Eleven]

Why not 67.3?  Or 67.7?  Really, any decimal will do.

[lost in dc]

OVER and out

[Thorny]

14 hours ago, Taro T said:

It's a tempting line, but expect this team will be in the very low 70's.

Over.

Which would represent an ~ 10 point improvement over the pace they played at under Granato last season. They look to be counting on the growth of the youth to replace their 2 best forwards, minutes leading defender, and their starting goalie, so if they do get there it'll be interesting to see how it happens

[JohnC]

I would say over. My estimate is 72 pts. Jack was injured for most of last season so he really isn't being replaced. There is no doubt that the loss of Reinhart is impactful. The hope is for the younger players to get better and the goaltending not be as bad as many of us fear (including me).  When Granato took over the level of play was demonstrably better, and this happened with not having much practice time. 

[PASabreFan]

I know this is the definition of the Gambler's Fallacy, but this franchise is due for a good* season.

Edited September 7, 2021 by PASabreFan

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Which would represent an ~ 10 point improvement over the pace they played at under Granato last season. They look to be counting on the growth of the youth to replace their 2 best forwards, minutes leading defender, and their starting goalie, so if they do get there it'll be interesting to see how it happens

Expecting they'll come out of the gate slowly but as they see a steady diet of backup goalies and teams just not being able to bring their A game against Arizona East they'll have enough stretches of NHL 0.500 hockey to end up at 71 or 72 points.  Which is still a HORRIBLE season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

44 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I know this is the definition of the Gambler's Fallacy, but this franchise is due for a good* season.

We could have a good season and still finish under 70 points. First of all with Tor, TB, Fla, Bos in the division we would need magic to make the playoffs. Then the next question is what would a good season be? Does it mean we are competitive, play hard each game with win and loses being meaningless?  Does it mean our key kids improve and we prove to be better then Det and Ott?  To me, it means we play hard each night, the key kids improve and we don't finish last in our division.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We could have a good season and still finish under 70 points. First of all with Tor, TB, Fla, Bos in the division we would need magic to make the playoffs. Then the next question is what would a good season be? Does it mean we are competitive, play hard each game with win and loses being meaningless?  Does it mean our key kids improve and we prove to be better then Det and Ott?  To me, it means we play hard each night, the key kids improve and we don't finish last in our division.

I agree with all of this, but I think Ottawa will be ahead of us.  Maybe not Detroit.  I am not sure what either team had done this offseason.  

We will finish ahead of Arizona overall, of that I am certain.

[JohnC]

Based on how the GM has responded to the goalie position I'm starting to believe that the organization is really considering playing UPL this season if he has a good camp. This is an attached WGR article written by Paul Hamilton. This is a big risk. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/sabres/sabres-luukkonen-has-been-putting-the-work-in-this-summer

[Weave]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We could have a good season and still finish under 70 points. First of all with Tor, TB, Fla, Bos in the division we would need magic to make the playoffs. Then the next question is what would a good season be? Does it mean we are competitive, play hard each game with win and loses being meaningless?  Does it mean our key kids improve and we prove to be better then Det and Ott?  To me, it means we play hard each night, the key kids improve and we don't finish last in our division.

70 points is not a good season under any definition.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

70 points is not a good season under any definition.  

I do expect more.  Thinking around 80.  Still not good, but basically a .500 team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

51 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Based on how the GM has responded to the goalie position I'm starting to believe that the organization is really considering playing UPL this season if he has a good camp. This is an attached WGR article written by Paul Hamilton. This is a big risk. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/sabres/sabres-luukkonen-has-been-putting-the-work-in-this-summer

As I've been saying for weeks, KA's goaltending plan is the dumbest plan I've seen in years and this is just added proof.  Having a camp battle between UPL (37th in AHL save %), Tokarski, Dell and Anderson to see who are the 2 least awful of the 4 is just plain stupid and condemning this team to a cellar finish.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As I've been saying for weeks, KA's goaltending plan is the dumbest plan I've seen in years and this is just added proof.  Having a camp battle between UPL (37th in AHL save %), Tokarski, Dell and Anderson to see who are the 2 least awful of the 4 is just plain stupid and condemning this team to a cellar finish.

I'm as queasy as you regarding the goaltending situation. It's certainly a gamble if UPL is the netminder the GM is betting on. I've felt all along that if the strategy was to play the younger players providing them with the support of solid to good play in the net would be the best way to put this team in a competitive situation and enhance their development. It just seems to me that this staff didn't have a backup plan when Ullmark didn't sign.

Where I somewhat disagree with you is that I'm not putting as much stock in UPL's AHL stats as you are. He was coming off of surgery and the game  and practice scheduling was savaged because of the Covid environment. It should also be factored in that the team he was playing with was shredded by the numerous callups last season. Although I'm not enamored with rushing UPL (assuming that actually happens) I'm not as declarative in assuming that he will automatically fail if rushed on to the big roster.  We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. 

[Andrew Amerk]

I know many are upset at the G choices, but we were fed a diet of Houser, Toker, and UPL for the 2nd half of last season, and Granato kept the team fun and competitive with them in net. 

I don’t see any real difference with Craig, UPL, and Dell being the G diet this season. 

It’ll likely be run and gun hockey. 6-5, 7-3, 5-2 type scores nightly. I see that as an improvement over losing to Philly and Boston 3-0 or 4-1 repeatedly. 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Andrew Amerk

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

I'm as queasy as you regarding the goaltending situation. It's certainly a gamble if UPL is the netminder the GM is betting on. I've felt all along that if the strategy was to play the younger players providing them with the support of solid to good play in the net would be the best way to put this team in a competitive situation and enhance their development. It just seems to me that this staff didn't have a backup plan when Ullmark didn't sign.

Where I somewhat disagree with you is that I'm not putting as much stock in UPL's AHL stats as you are. He was coming off of surgery and the game  and practice scheduling was savaged because of the Covid environment. It should also be factored in that the team he was playing with was shredded by the numerous callups last season. Although I'm not enamored with rushing UPL (assuming that actually happens) I'm not as declarative in assuming that he will automatically fail if rushed on to the big roster.  We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. 

I’d give your argument more credence if UPL had regressed last season, but he didn’t.  His save% was slightly improved from the year before, but still didn’t get to 900 in the AHL.  He isn’t close to NHL ready.  Do yourself a favor and compare Ullmark’s development to UPL.  

1 hour ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I know many are upset at the G choices, but we were fed a diet of Houser, Toker, and UPL for the 2nd half of last season, and Granato kept the team fun and competitive with them in net. 

I don’t see any real difference with Craig, UPL, and Dell being the G diet this season. 

It’ll likely be run and gun hockey. 6-5, 7-3, 5-2 type scores nightly. I see that as an improvement over losing to Philly and Boston 3-0 or 4-1 repeatedly. 

While they continued to play hard their record was 5-13-2 with Houser, Tokarski and UPL in net.  That’s about a 50 pt season.  

[PromoTheRobot]

 

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As I've been saying for weeks, KA's goaltending plan is the dumbest plan I've seen in years and this is just added proof.  Having a camp battle between UPL (37th in AHL save %), Tokarski, Dell and Anderson to see who are the 2 least awful of the 4 is just plain stupid and condemning this team to a cellar finish.

I don't think KA thinks this is a winning combo of goaltenders. But for whatever reason he couldn't get anyone better. Maybe he didn't want to trade the assets for a keeper in a potentially wasted year. Maybe no FA goalies would come here. Maybe he's hoping someone shakes loose before the season starts, or that UPL proves ready. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I don't think KA thinks this is a winning combo of goaltenders. But for whatever reason he couldn't get anyone better. Maybe he didn't want to trade the assets for a keeper in a potentially wasted year. Maybe no FA goalies would come here. Maybe he's hoping someone shakes loose before the season starts, or that UPL proves ready. 

This gets to what I don't understand about his "plan."  There just isn't any logic to it.  Why try to sign Ullmark at all, if you want to tank?  If you don't want to tank, then why didn't you have a good plan B when Ullmark walked instead of the ghosts of former NHL goalies?  It's not like a decent goaltender couldn't have been acquired.  Vanacek was traded back to Wash for a 2nd.  Surely Sea would have rather had our 2nd next season vs Washington's. (yes, Wash and Sea may have had a side deal in place)  KA said he didn't want to give assets away to get goaltending help.  I get that, but last I looked a 25 year old goalie who will still be an RFA after next season is a substantial asset as well. Got to give to get.  This isn't the only example of KA words not matching his actions.  The bottomline is I don't think he has a real plan, but is instead flying by the seat of his pants and hoping things work out.  So far the results speak for themselves.  

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This gets to what I don't understand about his "plan."  There just isn't any logic to it.  Why try to sign Ullmark at all, if you want to tank?  If you don't want to tank, then why didn't you have a good plan B when Ullmark walked instead of the ghosts of former NHL goalies?  It's not like a decent goaltender couldn't have been acquired.  Vanacek was traded back to Wash for a 2nd.  Surely Sea would have rather had our 2nd next season vs Washington's. (yes, Wash and Sea may have had a side deal in place)  KA said he didn't want to give assets away to get goaltending help.  I get that, but last I looked a 25 year old goalie who will still be an RFA after next season is a substantial asset as well. Got to give to get.  This isn't the only example of KA words not matching his actions.  The bottomline is I don't think he has a real plan, but is instead flying by the seat of his pants and hoping things work out.  So far the results speak for themselves.  

I live in the Wash/Md area. The media reports here were that Seattle and Washington made a pre-expansion draft deal for them to take Vanacek instead of taking defenseman Brendon Dillon. There were suggestions that the Vanacek trade back for a second-round pick was part of the side deal. I can't say for sure but that is what appears to have happened with the Vanacek exchange (as you indicated). 

As we have both discussed in prior exchanges it seems that KA is investing in UPL as one of their goalies sooner than most of us thought. It seems that the Ullmark departure accelerated the schedule for him. It may turn out that UPL plays a full season, or near full season, in Rochester before being called up. Candidly, I just don't know how this situation (as with the Jack situation) is going to shake out when the season starts???

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I live in the Wash/Md area. The media reports here were that Seattle and Washington made a pre-expansion draft deal for them to take Vanacek instead of taking defenseman Brendon Dillon. There were suggestions that the Vanacek trade back for a second-round pick was part of the side deal. I can't say for sure but that is what appears to have happened with the Vanacek exchange (as you indicated). 

As we have both discussed in prior exchanges it seems that KA is investing in UPL as one of their goalies sooner than most of us thought. It seems that the Ullmark departure accelerated the schedule for him. It may turn out that UPL plays a full season, or near full season, in Rochester before being called up. Candidly, I just don't know how this situation (as with the Jack situation) is going to shake out when the season starts???

The really sad part is if they put two real goaltenders on this team and the kids continue to progress under DG, this team could be a solid competitive team.  Not yet close to playoff caliber, but a hard working fun team that can get to hockey 500.  Maybe that is why I'm so annoyed (angry?) at KA and his "plan".  Unless he changes course on the goaltending, he has already ruined what could have been a fun season.

Edited September 8, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 hours ago, Weave said:

70 points is not a good season under any definition.  

The first thing they taught us in law school was the answer to all questions is "it depends."  Yes 70 points would be another out of the playoffs finish, but what are your expectations right now for this team?  50 pts, 60?  What if they scuffle early in the year, but progressively improve over the course of the season and have a good second half giving renewed hope for next year?  What then?  

Not a single fan on this board wants them to miss the playoffs again and no here also wants them to tank to get the next Eichel.  What we all want, I think, is progress and improvement.  If we see continued growth from the kids, I think most here will call that a successful season playoffs or not.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The first thing they taught us in law school was the answer to all questions is "it depends."  Yes 70 points would be another out of the playoffs finish, but what are your expectations right now for this team?  50 pts, 60?  What if they scuffle early in the year, but progressively improve over the course of the season and have a good second half giving renewed hope for next year?  What then?  

Not a single fan on this board wants them to miss the playoffs again and no here also wants them to tank to get the next Eichel.  What we all want, I think, is progress and improvement.  If we see continued growth from the kids, I think most here will call that a successful season playoffs or not.

And people were doubting me when I said KA was setting the expectations extraordinarily low, and that there were benefits to said strategy. 

Setting stupid low expectations (BY CHOICE) so that the team has a chance of achieving them is a viable strategy once the fan base gives him that out. People *want* to focus on the future: that way, they don’t have to be disappointed. It never really has to come, either, apparently - it can always be *just* over the horizon. 

- - - 

So no, I won’t be happy or “entertained” with a team achieving 70 points after they willingly torpedoed said team to the tune of making that the highest achievable total by choice 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So no, I won’t be happy or “entertained” with a team achieving 70 points after they willingly torpedoed said team to the tune of making that the highest achievable total by choice 

The team with Eichel, Ullmark, Hall, Staal, Reinhart, Montour and Ristolainen was a 54-point (pace) team.

If they dump them all and break 70 points, did they actually "torpedo" their chances?

[Thorny]

52 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The team with Eichel, Ullmark, Hall, Staal, Reinhart, Montour and Ristolainen was a 54-point (pace) team.

If they dump them all and break 70 points, did they actually "torpedo" their chances?

No, I agree, they definitely had absolutely no way of moulding this team into a playoff contender, contrary to the excellent posts from you and others @Taro T throughout the year of exactly how that might be done. Adams has literally no choice but to aim for last the next few years. 

Its the only way. That 10 game sample size under Krueger with all those guys in the lineup should definitely chart our next 5 years 

Were Cozens and Casey here for those games? We should trade them too. Why not? Correlation for causation is the theme of the day! 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

With current roster, pre Eichel trade and no Eichel -  bet Under.  
 

Project Granto’s record out and then consider no Reinhart, no Risto, no Ullmark.  They might play fast and hard but not enough at center, not much muscle, suspect goaltending.