Forwards This Season 2021-22 & Beyond

[JohnC]

25 minutes ago, Curt said:

First 8 games of the season he had 5 goals and 9 points.  He looked legitimately improved to me.

Then he got injured.

He hasn’t scored a goal in the 18 games since he came back.  Something isn’t right with him physically.

Over his career, he has produced like a 2nd line winger.

This doesn’t really support that he will get a BIG money deal, but if he can be signed to medium term deal for less than $6M, the Sabres may be wise to do that.  I don’t think has yet had a season that really reflects his abilities.

I agree with your observation. When he was hurt and out of the lineup Granato stated that because of the nature of his injury he couldn't practice shooting while rehabbing. I'm not really sure what the specifics of his injury are but it is apparent by his reluctance to shoot that he is still hindered by the injury. I wouldn't be surprised if it took an offseason for him to be fully healed. 

[nfreeman]

Speaking of VO and his injury, here’s the Athletic from Friday:
 

Quote

 

The Sabres also could use more from forward Victor Olofsson. He had five goals and nine points in the opening eight games, then suffered a soft-tissue injury and missed eight games. He has no goals in the 18 games since returning, and his formerly lethal shot is still affected by the ailment.

“I haven’t been able to use probably one of my best abilities out there,” Olofsson said. “But there’s no excuses, either. I’ve just got to do what I can control and do it to the best of my abilities.

…

Olofsson has three assists in the past four games, including one Thursday, but the goal-scoring is what made him vital to Buffalo’s early success.

“It takes him longer to prep (his shot) because he doesn’t have that feel because of the injury he went through,” Granato said. “He might not even recognize that. I can see it because I can see the pattern that’s different in his release. The prep of the release of a shot, there’s that extra half a second or one second or one-quarter of a second.

“He did things one-quarter of a second faster than 98 percent of the shooters in the league, so it throws the timing off of a goaltender. When he goes through an injury that affects his shooting, that complicates scoring until you can get back to that 100 percent.”

 

 

[inkman]

49 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Speaking of VO and his injury, here’s the Athletic from Friday:
 

 

I thought it was common knowledge but I’m sure this will be news to some 

[Dreams Burn Down]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I agree with your observation. When he was hurt and out of the lineup Granato stated that because of the nature of his injury he couldn't practice shooting while rehabbing. I'm not really sure what the specifics of his injury are but it is apparent by his reluctance to shoot that he is still hindered by the injury. I wouldn't be surprised if it took an offseason for him to be fully healed. 

He's clearly struggling with this injury.  My thought is, why wait for the off-season to rehab?  Wouldn't shutting him down for ten or twenty games be appropriate as this juncture?  Playing through it doesn't seem to be working.  We're obviously thin on talent, but I'd like to see VO healthy more for the future than forcing it to happen in the here and now.

[thewookie1]

11 minutes ago, Dreams Burn Down said:

He's clearly struggling with this injury.  My thought is, why wait for the off-season to rehab?  Wouldn't shutting him down for ten or twenty games be appropriate as this juncture?  Playing through it doesn't seem to be working.  We're obviously thin on talent, but I'd like to see VO healthy more for the future than forcing it to happen in the here and now.

I think it’s a dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t scenario due to his upcoming contract in conjunction with his skill. So both the team and player have a desire to keep playing.

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, Dreams Burn Down said:

He's clearly struggling with this injury.  My thought is, why wait for the off-season to rehab?  Wouldn't shutting him down for ten or twenty games be appropriate as this juncture?  Playing through it doesn't seem to be working.  We're obviously thin on talent, but I'd like to see VO healthy more for the future than forcing it to happen in the here and now.

If the injury doesn't get worse and he is more of an asset than a liability then I have no problem keeping him on the ice. From a standings standpoint this season means little. If by playing it will help his development from a long-term standpoint than it would makes sense to continue to play him. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

I thought it was common knowledge but I’m sure this will be news to some 

I thought it was noteworthy because it was the first time I’ve seen VO or anyone from the Sabres admit explicitly that the injury has affected his shot.  

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

This doesn’t really support that he will get a BIG money deal, but if he can be signed to medium term deal for less than $6M, the Sabres may be wise to do that.  I don’t think has yet had a season that really reflects his abilities.

So VO at 5 million plus ? imo that is insane. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

So VO at 5 million plus ? imo that is insane. 

Why do you think that is insane?

If you think he is an average 2nd line player who is also valuable on the PP, that’s basically what they cost.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Curt

[nfreeman]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

Why do you think that is insane?

If you think he is an average 2nd line player who is also valuable on the PP, that’s basically what they cost.

If VO had stayed healthy this season and put up, say, 27 goals, while also showing the development in his overall offensive game that we've seen, I would agree with you on a $5MM per year deal.  But the injury has robbed him of his money maker, and I can't see him getting a big contract unless and until he returns to form.

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

If VO had stayed healthy this season and put up, say, 27 goals, while also showing the development in his overall offensive game that we've seen, I would agree with you on a $5MM per year deal.  But the injury has robbed him of his money maker, and I can't see him getting a big contract unless and until he returns to form.

While I certainly understand your point, I think the nuance of the situation will basically rule out a lower money bridge type of deal.

Olofsson is UFA starting in the 2023 offseason.  Although it could make sense for Olofsson, the Sabres shouldn’t want to sign him for a one year (or even 2 year) prove it deal just to have to compete with the entire league to retain him in the 2023 offseason.  Olofsson isn’t going to sign a longer 3-4+ year lower money ($3M) deal because he almost definitely thinks he can be a productive top-6 winger and get payed as such.  If Sabres try to play real hardball with him, I believe he can just do the one year arbitration thing and then be a UFA the following offseason. (Someone correct me if I’m wrong.)

So, where does that leave us?  This is not a young player with years of team control remaining.  He is going to be 27 next season, he will recognize that he needs to cash in on his prime years.  The Sabres have seen enough of him at the NHL level to decide whether they believe in him or not.  They need to make a decision.  Either he is a part of the scoring forward core moving forward, or they need to trade him to some team that does believe in him.

That’s how I see the situation.

[nfreeman]

11 minutes ago, Curt said:

While I certainly understand your point, I think the nuance of the situation will basically rule out a lower money bridge type of deal.

Olofsson is UFA starting in the 2023 offseason.  Although it could make sense for Olofsson, the Sabres shouldn’t want to sign him for a one year (or even 2 year) prove it deal just to have to compete with the entire league to retain him in the 2023 offseason.  Olofsson isn’t going to sign a longer 3-4+ year lower money ($3M) deal because he almost definitely thinks he can be a productive top-6 winger and get payed as such.  If Sabres try to play real hardball with him, I believe he can just do the one year arbitration thing and then be a UFA the following offseason. (Someone correct me if I’m wrong.)

So, where does that leave us?  This is not a young player with years of team control remaining.  He is going to be 27 next season, he will recognize that he needs to cash in on his prime years.  The Sabres have seen enough of him at the NHL level to decide whether they believe in him or not.  They need to make a decision.  Either he is a part of the scoring forward core moving forward, or they need to trade him to some team that does believe in him.

That’s how I see the situation.

Very good point.  I had forgotten about his UFA timing.  You are correct that the Sabres are going to need to decide at the end of this season about him.  If they don't agree on a long-term deal -- and I agree that VO probably won't agree to a long-term deal at, say, $3MM per year -- he's probably gone once he hits UFA in another year.

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Very good point.  I had forgotten about his UFA timing.  You are correct that the Sabres are going to need to decide at the end of this season about him.  If they don't agree on a long-term deal -- and I agree that VO probably won't agree to a long-term deal at, say, $3MM per year -- he's probably gone once he hits UFA in another year.

His qualifying offer will be over 3 mil

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Why do you think that is insane?

If you think he is an average 2nd line player who is also valuable on the PP, that’s basically what they cost.

I just don't think he's that good. To me he's about equal to someone like Anthony Duclair and so somewhere around 3 million. Definitely less than 4. 

[kas23]

Give him a 1-yr qualifying offer. If he continues to improve more, show him the money mid-season. If he doesn’t take it, trade him at the deadline. 

[LGR4GM]

Does olofsson have arbitration rights?

[Digger]

I don't see Adams having to overpay to keep Olofsson.  His injury this season will help keep his contract reasonable.  I would guess that they would like to keep him under $4M if they can.

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Does olofsson have arbitration rights?

He does. And he scores a lot of points, which matters in arbitration.

He’s not going to have much of a hammer there walking in this year with a 10 goal season. But he is comfortably averaging more than 20 goals and 50 points per 82 over his career. His current injury really complicates things, including the chance he can be traded for a haul at the deadline. Victor Olofsson, sniper, at $3 million as an RFA is an easy 1st rounder, IMO. Victor Olofsson playmaker, not so much.

Comparables (recent late RFA wingers with similar stats) include Bjorkstrand (5x5.4), Domi (2x5.3), Vrana (3x5.2), Fiala (1x5.1), Garland (5x4.9), Burakovsky (2x4.9), Labanc (4x4.7) Bennett (4x4.4), Beauvillier (3x4.1), Iaffalo (4x4).

He’s going to be a tough decision for Adams.

Edited January 10, 2022 by dudacek

[Thorny]

In a world where Girgensons makes 2 mil per, I'd be comfortable getting up to 4, 4.5 or so with VO. We don't have close to enough depth where we can afford to be punting these types of guys for picks right now if it can be avoided - so hopefully finding amicable terms here for both sides doesn't prove too difficult. 

He still has a rate of production this season greater than anyone else on the team, and we have a ton of flexibility with the cap. 

Even if we locked VO up to the tune of 5 mil next season, we'd be paying about 6 mil total between VO and Tage - seems reasonable to me. Just don't go crazy on term. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

Not exclusively about forwards, but I’ve listened to Donnie enough to really start to see a 3-tiered theme in the way he thinks about his players:

1) the blinding light brigade who not only have all the talent in the world, but also have the correct mental approach to developing it. All they need is to continue pushing the envelope and they will get better. He is excited about these guys. His comments on Quinn and Asplund today fit them here. Dahlin and Mittelstadt are the poster kids.

2) the key vets who approach the game and their teammates the right way and he doesn’t have to worry about. The best examples are wearing the “As” or are named Craig Anderson. From what I’ve heard, Hayden and Caggiula might be here as well

3) The guys who don’t fully fit in either category yet and and need to move into one soon or be left behind. Bjork, from yesterday’s comments, has moved into this group. He doesn’t speak badly of them, he just speaks about them in a different way. He has been given chances to elevate Subban, Murray, R2, Hagg, Pysyk, Butcher and Miller, but did not.

I have not heard enough to be confident where Olofsson, Skinner, Hinostroza and Eakin are. I will say that when asked about Victor’s struggles recently and Jeff’s early in the year, he talked about what each of them had to do to overcome without the same “and I’m confident he will” that I heard when he had similar questions about Asplund and Dahlin.

Edited January 10, 2022 by dudacek

[spndnchz]

Hopefully he’s not broken just bent. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 1/10/2022 at 5:27 AM, LGR4GM said:

Does olofsson have arbitration rights?

Yes.

Quick, with the addition of Power, Quinn, Samuelsson and Krebs to the currently signed players, the Sabres have 15 (11 forwards and 4 D) guys for next season already, but for only 41,865,334.  RFAs and lesser UFAs like Murray, Bryson, UPL, Pysyk and Hinostroza should be cheap to keep.  Also kids like Fitzgerald, JJP and Laaksonen are on rookie deals and our cheap also if they make the team.  The only exception is Olofsson.  If Pysyk, Bryson, Murray and UPL stay on the team, you have approximately 45 mill invested in 19 guys, leaving 1G, 1F, and 1D slot to get to 22 guys and around 17 mill to spend. 

Assuming VO is also retained, that takes the last F slot.  Given his career so far, I don't see a 3 year deal at 5 per season out of the question.  KA needs to spend the money just to get to the cap floor and to lockup on our best goal scorers.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes.

Quick, with the addition of Power, Quinn, Samuelsson and Krebs to the currently signed players, the Sabres have 15 (11 forwards and 4 D)RFA  guys for next season already, but for only 41,865,334.  RFAs and lesser UFAS like Murray, Bryson, UPL, Pysyk and Hinostroza should be cheap to keep.  Also kids like Fitzgerald, JJP and Laaksonen are on rookie deals and our cheap also if they make the team.  The only exception is Olofsson.  If Pysyk, Bryson, Murray and UPL stay on the team, you have approximately 45 mill invested in 19 guys, leaving 1G, 1F, and 1D slot to get to 22 guys and around 17 mill to spend. 

Assuming VO is also retained, that takes the last F slot.  Given is career so far, I don't see a 3 year deal at 5 per season out of the question.  KA needs to spend the money just to get to the cap floor and to lockup on our best goal scorers.

 

I agree with this generally but, as to the bolded -- KA isn't going to overpay VO in order to get to the cap floor.

I would guess that unless KO's shoulder improves this season and he starts firing his primary weapon at his pre-injury level, he'll end up at around $3.75MM x 3 years.

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with this generally but, as to the bolded -- KA isn't going to overpay VO in order to get to the cap floor.

I would guess that unless KO's shoulder improves this season and he starts firing his primary weapon at his pre-injury level, he'll end up at around $3.75MM x 3 years.

I would not sign that offer if I was VO. What’s incentive? Sabres would have to up the ante in order to buy UFA years. 

I think he’d much rather take a one-year reward in arbitration all the way to unrestricted free agency next summer.

[GASabresIUFAN]

If he gets him for 5 mill that isn’t overpaying.  He has 20 pts in 26 games.  That’s a pace for 57 points based on the games remaining.  A $100k a pt, $5 mill is a starting point.  
 

in his 3 seasons, all Covid limited, he paced at 64, 47 and 57 this year.  Add a premium for goal scoring and again $5 mill is a starting point especially with him having arbitration rights.