Forwards This Season 2021-22 & Beyond

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

I'm not so sure.  He's been driven to prove his worth since coming back from his neuro ICU stint in 2017.  But we've got him for only one more year and I don't think he will play beyond that.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him folded into the Sabres' player development and coaching machine though.

Kyle Okposo is the best Sabre of the Eichel era. Guy bleeds blue n gold. 

[Doohickie]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:55 PM, PerreaultForever said:

IF Quinn, Peterka, Krebs are ready you bump out the underperforming crap to the pressbox or wherever. Who cares? It'll simply mean we are finally getting better. So Okposo can sit his last year or whoever. Asplund, Mitts, etc. will have to perform and fight to keep their jobs. This is good. Overdue. Just don't see it as a negative or an issue. 

Yep.  KA has spoken of "internal competition."  This is what he's doing to create it.

Okposo is among the team's scoring leaders this  year... will that continue?  If so, you don't sit him.  And all the throwaways (Caggiula, Bjork, Hinostroza, Eakin, Hayden).... they've all contributed in some way, some more than others.  Do you insert a scoring threat in place of a Hayden who is solidifying the PK?  I think part of earning a spot on the big club is to not only show scoring prowess, but be able to contribute in other ways- general toughness, PK, faceoffs, etc.

On 12/14/2021 at 3:34 PM, PerreaultForever said:

He's not worth that kind of money or term. He's a limited one dimensional player who can serve a role

You're not paying attention this season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 12/14/2021 at 7:37 PM, PerreaultForever said:

You're over valuing much of what we have. If we had this abundance of talent, we wouldn't be near the bottom of the league. 

The kids in Rochester MIGHT be, and then we might have it, but until they become good NHLers, this is a thin roster. There are some okay and so so players but it's far from a talented roster. 

There is a huge difference between talent vs developed NHL players.  We are also down Mitts and Tuch, two very talented players and are adding next season at worst guy draft 1st (Power), 8th (Quinn) and Krebs (17th - because of injury) as rookies.  We also have had zero goaltending until the last 4 games.  Hard to win that way regardless of the forward talent.  

This is the breakdown of draft position for next years team with draft position used only as an indicator of raw talent.

1st Round (13)

1st Overall - Dahlin (on his way to a 15g 50pts season), and Power

7th overall - Cozens (42 pt pace in year 2), KO (56 pt pace this season) and Skinner (former ROY & 40 goal scorer rebounding to 26+ this season)

8th overall - Mitts and Quinn (1.41 pts/gp in AHL ROY in the AHL?)

14th Overall - Girgensons (career year pace)

17th Overall - Krebs

18th Overall - Tuch (former 25+ goal scorer)

23rd Overall - Pysyk

26th Overall - Thompson (53 pts, 29 goal pace) in first NHL season w a regular role

29th Overall - Jokiharju

2nd Round (3)

32nd - Samuelsson

33rd - Asplund (42 pt pace) in first full season as a NHL regular

54th - UPL

Others (3)

99th - Murray and Bryson

181st - Victor Olofsson - (on pace for career high for Pts and Asts, former 20+ goal scorer)

Next years team will have a ton of talent on paper with much of it young or very young.  However youngsters Thompson, Asplund and Cozens are rapidly moving toward being proven NHL talent.  

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Kyle Okposo is the best Sabre of the Eichel era. Guy bleeds blue n gold. 

Great for Kyle, not so much for the Sabres.  

[dudacek]

There are 5 spots available next year, right now barring any moves.

OUT: Eakin, Hinostroza, Hayden, Caggiula, Jankowski,

Tuch gets one of them. Murray, Quinn, Peterka Krebs and R2 are in the mix for the other 4.

We might add/retain 1 or 2 bottom-sixers, but I doubt we make another Tuch-level commitment.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

There are 5 spots available next year, right now barring any moves.

OUT: Eakin, Hinostroza, Hayden, Caggiula, Jankowski,

Tuch gets one of them. Murray, Quinn, Peterka Krebs and R2 are in the mix for the other 4.

We might add/retain 1 or 2 bottom-sixers, but I doubt we make another Tuch-level commitment.

There are already 9 current forwards signed for next year, including Tuch.  Once VO is re-signed that’s 10.  Even if Bjork is only retained as a utility 13th forward, that leaves only 3 real open roster spots.  Quinn, Krebs and Murray are the leading candidates for those jobs, unless R2 shows DG/KA something once Vinnie gets traded at the deadline.  I don’t see KA moving on from any of the leadership vets like Girgensons or KO.  It’s funny but we actually need Skinner’s contract to stay cap compliant.

Just an FYI, I calculated a cap cost next season of $51,239,167 for 20 players (and CoHo’s buyout) with the forward group (13 forwards), as described above, plus Samuelsson and Power joining returning D of Bryson, Joker, Dahlin and Pysyk and UPL in one of the goalie slots. The open D and G slots can easily be filed, but the question is will KA commit $9 mill for those two jobs. This calculation include $5 mill for VO, 1.25 each for Bryson and Pysyk. 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drag0nDan]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are already 9 current forwards signed for next year, including Tuch.  Once VO is re-signed that’s 10.  Even if Bjork is only retained as a utility 13th forward, that leaves only 3 real open roster spots.  Quinn, Krebs and Murray are the leading candidates for those jobs, unless R2 shows DG/KA something once Vinnie gets traded at the deadline.  I don’t see KA moving on from any of the leadership vets like Girgensons or KO.  It funny but we actually need Skinner’s contract to stay cap compliant.

Just an FYI, I calculate a cap cost, with the forward group as described, plus Samuelsson and Power joining returning D of Bryson, Joker, Dahlin and Pysyk and UPL in one of the goalie slots of $51,239,167 for those 20 players.  The open D and G slots can easily be filed, but the question is will KA commit $9 mill for those two jobs.

 

Thompson - Mitts - cozens - Skinner - Olof - Okposo - Asplund - Tuch - Girgensons  is 9.  I only count 3 guys who kill penalties in the group, so its tough to bring up 3 rookies who don't.  They may need to make a move or two within that group - but it wouldn't be for picks.  

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Thompson - Mitts - cozens - Skinner - Olof - Okposo - Asplund - Tuch - Girgensons  is 9.  I only count 3 guys who kill penalties in the group, so its tough to bring up 3 rookies who don't.  They may need to make a move or two within that group - but it wouldn't be for picks.  

Fairly certain Quinn at the least kills penalties and JJ should kill penalties if he doesn't already. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Thompson - Mitts - cozens - Skinner - Olof - Okposo - Asplund - Tuch - Girgensons  is 9.  I only count 3 guys who kill penalties in the group, so its tough to bring up 3 rookies who don't.  They may need to make a move or two within that group - but it wouldn't be for picks.  

Don’t forget Bjork has another year left. VO and Murray are RFAs. Pkers in the signed group are Bjork, Asplund, KO and Z, but I can see both Thompson and Cozens adding PK time in the near future.  

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are already 9 current forwards signed for next year, including Tuch.  Once VO is re-signed that’s 10.  Even if Bjork is only retained as a utility 13th forward, that leaves only 3 real open roster spots.  Quinn, Krebs and Murray are the leading candidates for those jobs, unless R2 shows DG/KA something once Vinnie gets traded at the deadline.  I don’t see KA moving on from any of the leadership vets like Girgensons or KO.  It funny but we actually need Skinner’s contract to stay cap compliant.

Just an FYI, I calculate a cap cost, with the forward group as described, plus Samuelsson and Power joining returning D of Bryson, Joker, Dahlin and Pysyk and UPL in one of the goalie slots of $51,239,167 for those 20 players.  The open D and G slots can easily be filed, but the question is will KA commit $9 mill for those two jobs.

 

You're calculating the starting 13. Adams will be looking a little deeper than that for depth — competition, injuries etc.

I think it's likely he (re-)signs/acquires/promotes ~5 people to replace his departing UFAs. Personally, I would be surprised if any are better than a Hinostroza level

How Adams uses his considerable cap space will be interesting. And your numbers show he will have to spend some money in order to reach the floor. He can certainly afford a top-4 RHD and a competent goalie.

I don't foresee an internal cap, but they won't spend just because they can.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We also have had zero goaltending until the last 4 games.

Well, once Anderson went down.  He played well; the Sabres were 4-2 with him.

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You're calculating the starting 13. Adams will be looking a little deeper than that for depth — competition, injuries etc.

I think it's likely he (re-)signs/acquires/promotes ~5 people to replace his departing UFAs. Personally, I would be surprised if any are better than a Hinostroza level

How Adams uses his considerable cap space will be interesting. And your numbers show he will have to spend some money in order to reach the floor. He can certainly afford a top-4 RHD and a competent goalie.

I don't foresee an internal cap, but they won't spend just because they can.

He’ll have depth.  R2 and JJP will be in Rochester. He’ll probably retain Jankowski for AHL leadership and injury NHL callups.  Weissbach will start pushing for a callup. 

The RHD that would be a very interesting fit would be Orlov.  He has one year left on his deal after this season at 5.1 and Washington needs to lessen their cap burden.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drag0nDan]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You're calculating the starting 13. Adams will be looking a little deeper than that for depth — competition, injuries etc.

I think it's likely he (re-)signs/acquires/promotes ~5 people to replace his departing UFAs. Personally, I would be surprised if any are better than a Hinostroza level

How Adams uses his considerable cap space will be interesting. And your numbers show he will have to spend some money in order to reach the floor. He can certainly afford a top-4 RHD and a competent goalie.

I don't foresee an internal cap, but they won't spend just because they can.

Yeah - free agency isn't where you build a team anyway.  Too much term on overpaid players.  Better off doing a better job with the players you have. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Don’t forget Bjork has another year left. VO and Murray are RFAs. Pkers in the signed group are Bjork, Asplund, KO and Z, but I can see both Thompson and Cozens adding PK time in the near future.  

Nobody wants to hear it, but Mittelstadt was getting looks on PK in the limited time he was available to Granato last year & this year.  He's going to be penciled in there again.

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He’ll have depth.  R2 and JJP will be in Rochester. He’ll probably retain Jankowski for AHL leadership and injury NHL callups.  Weissbach will start pushing for a callup. 

The RHD that would be a very interesting fit would be Orlov.  He has one year left on his deal after this season at 5.1 and Washington needs to lessen their cap burden.  

I think Orlov is a LHD.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, French Collection said:

I think Orlov is a LHD.

Actually plays both

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually plays both

He may play either side but he shoots left handed.

[GASabresIUFAN]

With Tuch slotting in on Monday, what do our lines look like?

I think DG likes what he is seeing with Murray Cozens and KO.  Skinner Thompson and VO seem solid as well.  So where does Tuch go?  Does he slot him with Jankowski and Hinostroza to make a 3rd scoring line or does he bump   Murray from Cozens and move VO there opening up Thompson RW for Tuch?  

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Tuch slotting in on Monday, what do our lines look like?

I think DG likes what he is seeing with Murray Cozens and KO.  Skinner Thompson and VO seem solid as well.  So where does Tuch go?  Does he slot him with Jankowski and Hinostroza to make a 3rd scoring line or does he bump   Murray from Cozens and move VO there opening up Thompson RW for Tuch?  

I gotta believe Janky is the first forward to get benched.

I also, regretfully, agree with @dudacek that VO does not appear to be fully recovered from his injury -- I haven't seen him blast the slapper in a while and he seems much less effective than previously.  So maybe:

Skinner - TT - Tuch

VO - Cozens - KO

Asplund - Eakin - Vinnie H.

Murray - Zemgus - Hayden

[Cheektorado]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Tuch slotting in on Monday, what do our lines look like?

I think DG likes what he is seeing with Murray Cozens and KO.  Skinner Thompson and VO seem solid as well.  So where does Tuch go?  Does he slot him with Jankowski and Hinostroza to make a 3rd scoring line or does he bump   Murray from Cozens and move VO there opening up Thompson RW for Tuch?  

I asked that today in the Tuch thread.  It seems to me that to start they would want to bring him around slowly so I would guess that shaking up multiple lines would not seem the thing to do.  If that happens then I don't see him starting on Thompson or Cozens lines to begin with.  I just don't know but it will be interesting to see what happens.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is Vogl’s most recent stab at the Sabres next season.  https://theathletic.com/3018447/2021/12/17/sabres-mailbag-whats-owen-powers-upside-how-much-impact-will-alex-tuch-have-is-ukko-pekka-luukkonen-up-for-good/

“Here’s a potential opening-night lineup for the forwards:

Jeff Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Quinn-Cozens-Victor Olofsson
Krebs-Mittelstadt-Peterka
Murray-Asplund-Kyle Okposo

The Sabres also have forwards Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork and Arttu Ruotsalainen under contract in case a youngster fails to prove himself in training camp. Any signings will most likely be depth defensemen or a backup goalie.”

Interesting, but there is zero chance that Girgensons isn’t in the starting lineup next season.  We need the veteran presence and physical play.  
 

He also has 6 kids on the D with Laaksonen joining Samuelsson and Power as rookies.  
 

This lineup, while great to imagine with  that many talented kids on the roster, it doesn’t work with the cap.  

[kas23]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is Vogl’s most recent stab at the Sabres next season.  https://theathletic.com/3018447/2021/12/17/sabres-mailbag-whats-owen-powers-upside-how-much-impact-will-alex-tuch-have-is-ukko-pekka-luukkonen-up-for-good/

“Here’s a potential opening-night lineup for the forwards:

Jeff Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Quinn-Cozens-Victor Olofsson
Krebs-Mittelstadt-Peterka
Murray-Asplund-Kyle Okposo

The Sabres also have forwards Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork and Arttu Ruotsalainen under contract in case a youngster fails to prove himself in training camp. Any signings will most likely be depth defensemen or a backup goalie.”

Interesting, but there is zero chance that Girgensons isn’t in the starting lineup next season.  We need the veteran presence and physical play.  
 

He also has 6 kids on the D with Laaksonen joining Samuelsson and Power as rookies.  
 

This lineup, while great to imagine with  that many talented kids on the roster, it doesn’t work with the cap.  

Doesn’t work, as in doesn’t hit the cap floor? Would be in favor of adding a high-priced stay at home Defenseman, rather than a forward  

 

Besides that, I would switch Skinner with Krebs. Wouldn’t want to saddle Mitts with 2 rookies at once. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Doesn’t work, as in doesn’t hit the cap floor? Would be in favor of adding a high-priced stay at home Defenseman, rather than a forward  

 

Besides that, I would switch Skinner with Krebs. Wouldn’t want to saddle Mitts with 2 rookies at once. 

It's crueler to saddle him w/ Skinner & a rookie, you sadist.  😉

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Doesn’t work, as in doesn’t hit the cap floor? Would be in favor of adding a high-priced stay at home Defenseman, rather than a forward  

 

Besides that, I would switch Skinner with Krebs. Wouldn’t want to saddle Mitts with 2 rookies at once. 

Correct.  We’d be about 8-10 mill short with the lineup Vogl suggests.  Obviously we can make that up with taking on other contracts of injured players like Boychuk’s, but I’d much rather have a solid veteran stay at home D to mentor all the kids and invest in a real goaltender as insurance for UPL and more veteran leadership. I suggested previous going after someone like Orlov from Wash who carries a cap hit of 5.1 for next year.

Edited December 20, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[kas23]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It's crueler to saddle him w/ Skinner & a rookie, you sadist.  😉

 

Yeah, I know. I haven’t given up on Skinner yet though. If he was making $4-5M, I think we wouldn’t mind him. It’s just his history and that contract.