Updated Sabres Prospect Pool 2021 and beyond

[Thorny]

I just don't see the upside with Power to have him above Cozens, but I understand those that place him above. I'd have Cozens/Power/Quinn/JJP/maybe Rosen? after than maybe a goalie and then it's just hard to find the confidence to differentiate between the rest meaningfully

But Cozens to me is NHL not a prospect. 

I'm sure there'd be lots of lists he wasn't counted on 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I just don't see the upside with Power to have him above Cozens, but I understand those that place him above. I'd have Cozens/Power/Quinn/JJP/maybe Rosen? after than maybe a goalie and then it's just hard to find the confidence to differentiate between the rest meaningfully

But Cozens to me is NHL not a prospect. 

I'm sure there'd be lots of lists he wasn't counted on 

Cozens will be a prospect on nearly every list.  He has played a total of 41 NHL games and started the year in the Canadian U20 team.  He can still be sent down.  Most list makers won't eliminate a guy until he gets 100 games under his belt at least.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One guy didn’t play at all last year, and the other struggled due to a bout of COVID.

Looks like the Sabres were tracking them from earlier in their careers, did some homework some other scouts didn’t and decided they were worth it.

Those are the kind of bets you need to make to unearth some hidden gems. Be interesting to see where each goes.

 

 

So how do you give a high ranking to two guys who played limited or no games?  

By the way Cozens vs Power.  The draft gurus say Power's upside is Victor Hedman, if that is correct, that imho is more upside then Cozens.

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I just don't see the upside with Power to have him above Cozens, but I understand those that place him above. I'd have Cozens/Power/Quinn/JJP/maybe Rosen? after than maybe a goalie and then it's just hard to find the confidence to differentiate between the rest meaningfully

But Cozens to me is NHL not a prospect. 

I'm sure there'd be lots of lists he wasn't counted on 

I see Alex Pietrangelo upside in Power. It’s not Hedman, but it’s top-10 NHL defenceman.

Do you think Dylan has top 10 upside? I need to revisit WJC game tape, because maybe I’m spending too much time thinking about the kid that hit a wall hard over the last 20 games.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I see Alex Pietrangelo upside in Power. It’s not Hedman, but it’s top-10 NHL defenceman.

Do you think Dylan has top 10 upside? I need to revisit WJC game tape, because maybe I’m spending too much time thinking about the kid that hit a wall hard over the last 20 games.

I think Cozen's upside is ROR.  Excellent player and maybe eventually a No 1. center, but not a top 10 NHL center.  Power's upside is a Norris contender.  That imho is a higher upside.

[inkman]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think Cozen's upside is ROR.  Excellent player and maybe eventually a No 1. center, but not a top 10 NHL center.  Power's upside is a Norris contender.  That imho is a higher upside.

This will change once Power is in the NHL 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, inkman said:

This will change once Power is in the NHL 

Hedman’s stats his first 3 years were just ok 20-26 pts.  Pietrangelo stayed in the OHL for 2 more years after being drafted.  I doubt the perception changes to much if he joins the Sabres this coming season and shows he isn’t out of place.

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The ranking should be in order of how they would be picked today in a league-wide dispersal draft.

Power is one. Ordinarily I like it when people don’t buy the hype, but in this case one would be foolish to ignore it. It would be pretty hard to find many people who aren’t Sabres fans who would rank Cozens over him

Jack Quinn is #3. Pretty easily.

R2 is intriguing but I think you are way overvaluing his proximity to making it in this case. I’m not sure he’s in the top 10

Putting Sandarian behind two players who were drafted after him is an odd choice.

Oooh oooh do me next! I agree on Power over Cozens, Quinn at three and R2 being WAY too high.

Also: are we severely underrating the possibility that Oskari Laaksonen is in the NHL full-time this season? He played 28 games in the AHL last year as a righty and produced at a pretty good clip. We don't have a lot of options on the right side (especially if Miller is out). He's a guy that we keep hearing could be one of our biggest steals and it might be time to find out.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So why did I put R2 so high?  

He reminds me of a better version of VO. VO paced at 60+ points as a rookie and at a 55 pt pace for his career to date.  I think R2 has similar upside potential and could be a 60 pt player in the NHL.  Do we think JJP or Quinn will get to that level?  Possible I guess, but R2 is closer to the NHL and much closer to reaching that potential.  

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So why did I put R2 so high?  

He reminds me of a better version of VO. VO paced at 60+ points as a rookie and at a 55 pt pace for his career to date.  I think R2 has similar upside potential and could be a 60 pt player in the NHL.  Do we think JJP or Quinn will get to that level?  Possible I guess, but R2 is closer to the NHL and much closer to reaching that potential.  

He’s scored some nice one-timers, but VO’s is purely elite and I don’t see many other similarities to their game.

I like R2, but he scored 6 points in 17 games as a 23-year-old rookie. I didn’t see a thing in those 17 games that said 60-point potential to me.

[sabresparaavida]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s scored some nice one-timers, but VO’s is purely elite and I don’t see many other similarities to their game.

I like R2, but he scored 6 points in 17 games as a 23-year-old rookie. I didn’t see a thing in those 17 games that said 60-point potential to me.

Yes, but how different was their power play time? Oloffson was on PP1 for the start of the season, and was only scoring PP goals to start. I would imagine their ES stats to start were pretty similar. 
 

Now I don’t think that R2 has as much upside as some are suggesting, comparing the 2s stats like that is not contextual.

[Hank]

Why do you guys have Johnson so low on your lists? I haven't followed him much but I remember being happy when we took him. Has he not developed as aspected? I thought he would make the big club this year. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Hank

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is a comparison for you

Age 22 Season

VO (SHL) - 50gms 27g 16a 43 pts - .86 pts/gm

R2 (Liiga) - 44gms 15g 28a 43 pts - .98 pts/gm 

Age 23 season

VO (AHL) 66gm 30g 33a 63 pts - .96 pts/gm

VO (NHL) 6 gms 2g 2a 4pts - .67 pts/gm 

R2 (Liiga) 19gm 16g 11a 27 pts - 1.42 pts/gm

R2 (AHL) 13gm 5g 8a 13 pts - 1 pt/gm

R2 (NHL) 17gm 5g 1a 6 pts - .35 pts/gm

They have taken very similar paths to the NHL.  VO's full rookie year at 24 produced 42 pts in 54 games but 11 of the 20 goals and 17 of the 42 pts came on the PP. R2 received no PP time last season, but is now primed to get PP time this coming fall.  

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Hank said:

Why do you guys have Johnson so low on your lists? I haven't followed him much but I remember being happy when we took him. Has he not developed as aspected? I thought he would make the big club this year. 

He remains unsigned and in college.  He is developing fine and was significantly improved year over year with 14 pts in 27 college games.  He was also solid in the World Jrs.  He was drafted 1 year behind Samuelsson, and is progressing toward the NHL.  I would not be surprised to see him signed this summer and start the year in the AHL and like Samuelsson earn a call up at some point. 

Being our 10th overall prospect on a list that includes 4 guys with NHL experience, a 1st overall pick and 3 other top 15 picks is not a sin.

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Yes, but how different was their power play time? Oloffson was on PP1 for the start of the season, and was only scoring PP goals to start. I would imagine their ES stats to start were pretty similar. 
 

Now I don’t think that R2 has as much upside as some are suggesting, comparing the 2s stats like that is not contextual.

I’m not sure what you’re saying here, that if you put R2 into Vic’s PP slot, he’d have better numbers?

I think that’s probably true, but it’s also the same for Cozens, or Thompson, or Bjork, or pretty much any of them. None of them can shoot as good as Victor and wouldn’t score as many as Victor IMO, but that wasn’t really my point.

My point didn’t really have anything to do with Olofsson. It was that I hadn’t seen anything from R2 that suggested 60-point scorer, in response to GA essentially saying that’s why he ranked him at 4. 

My point was I haven’t seen R2 demonstrate the skill 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is a comparison for you

Age 22 Season

VO (SHL) - 50gms 27g 16a 43 pts - .86 pts/gm

R2 (SHL) - 44gms 15g 28a 43 pts - .98 pts/gm 

Age 23 season

VO (AHL) 66gm 30g 33a 63 pts - .96 pts/gm

VO (NHL) 6 gms 2g 2a 4pts - .67 pts/gm 

R2 (SHL) 19gm 16g 11a 27 pts - 1.42 pts/gm

R2 (AHL) 13gm 5g 8a 13 pts - 1 pt/gm

R2 (NHL) 17gm 5g 1a 6 pts - .35 pts/gm

They have taken very similar paths to the NHL.  VO's full rookie year at 24 produced 42 pts in 54 games but 11 of the 20 goals and 17 of the 42 pts came on the PP. R2 received no PP time last season, but is now primed to get PP time this coming fall.  

 

VO put up his numbers in the SHL, R2s were in Finland in a weaker league, but point taken.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m not sure what you’re saying here, that if you put R2 into Vic’s PP slot, he’d have better numbers?

I think that’s probably true, but it’s also the same for Cozens, or Thompson, or Bjork, or pretty much any of them. None of them can shoot as good as Victor and wouldn’t score as many as Victor IMO, but that wasn’t really my point.

My point didn’t really have anything to do with Olofsson. It was that I hadn’t seen anything from R2 that suggested 60-point scorer, in response to GA essentially saying that’s why he ranked him at 4. 

My point was I haven’t seen R2 demonstrate the skill 

Please see the above comparison.  R2 has a very good scoring touch but is a much better playmaker then VO, which is why I have him with a higher ceiling then VO.  In VO's rookie year (age 24) he posted .46 pts per game at even strength.  I think R2 can exceed that (was .35 at 23) and with PP time he could exceed VO's overall production.  Guys who can put up 1.42 pts per game in the Liiga are very talented offensive players.

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

VO put up his numbers in the SHL, R2s were in Finland in a weaker league, but point taken.

Fixed the league.  

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

Oooh oooh do me next! I agree on Power over Cozens, Quinn at three and R2 being WAY too high.

Also: are we severely underrating the possibility that Oskari Laaksonen is in the NHL full-time this season? He played 28 games in the AHL last year as a righty and produced at a pretty good clip. We don't have a lot of options on the right side (especially if Miller is out). He's a guy that we keep hearing could be one of our biggest steals and it might be time to find out.

Yeh... I forget which side Bryson plays, but isn't 14th a little low... especially given what he showed in the NHL last year.  

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, North Buffalo said:

Yeh... I forget which side Bryson plays, but isn't 14th a little low... especially given what he showed in the NHL last year.  

I don't believe Bryson showed a lot of promise in the NHL last season so I have low expectations for him and wouldn't expect him to be in the NHL or at least on this team when they get to competing.

I will add he has already gotten to a point in his career I didn’t expect him to do there’s definitely potential he keeps doing that.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Hoss

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He remains unsigned and in college.  He is developing fine and was significantly improved year over year with 14 pts in 27 college games.  He was also solid in the World Jrs.  He was drafted 1 year behind Samuelsson, and is progressing toward the NHL.  I would not be surprised to see him signed this summer and start the year in the AHL and like Samuelsson earn a call up at some point. 

Being our 10th overall prospect on a list that includes 4 guys with NHL experience, a 1st overall pick and 3 other top 15 picks is not a sin.

I think,  Ryan Johnson will go back to college 1 more year and get signed in April or late March. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by LGR4GM

[inkman]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Ryan Johnson will go back to college 1 more year and get signed in April or late March. 

You disliked Ryan Johnson quite significantly when he was drafted, correct?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, inkman said:

You disliked Ryan Johnson quite significantly when he was drafted, correct?

No. I've explained this multiple times. 

[Curt]

43 minutes ago, inkman said:

You disliked Ryan Johnson quite significantly when he was drafted, correct?

He thought that Johnson was drafted too high.  That there was forward talent (Kaliyev, Nick Robertson) still on the board that was both better value and a larger organizational need.  It’s not that he disliked Johnson, he just liked other players more.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Curt

[Taro T]

43 minutes ago, inkman said:

You disliked Ryan Johnson quite significantly when he was drafted, correct?

He hated the selection as he thought there were F's that would be better than him.  But he thought Johnson will be an NHLer and a good player.