Updated Sabres Prospect Pool 2021 and beyond

[Doohickie]

 

[dudacek]

56 minutes ago, Thorny said:

We are most in need compared to most rosters - our on-roster guys are also question marks. Unlike, say, a Boston. 

As I said, "barren" was particularly relevant when looking at just the system, guys not in the NHL. Apologies if there is confusion but when I use "system" it's usually in that way. After Krebs, it IS barren - this is because we haven't used high picks on centres the last couple drafts. There's absolutely no way I'll be convinced a team can go 3 straight years without doing do and get away it, not with the current roster we have. 

Josh Bloom has a glimmer of hope to be an NHLer. Look at the numbers beside the rest of those guys. They aren't going to play in the NHL. My conclusion stands for me: after Krebs, we don't have anyone else in the system who projects to NHL player at C. 

You are lumping together on roster players already in key roles for us and guys still in the system, and comparing our pools against other teams, without factoring in their NHL players in key roles. It's imbalanced an gives an inaccurate representation. If Cozens and Casey are in the NHL, yes, the prospect system at C is barren after Krebs. If Cozens is still a prospect, our prospect system at C is still too shallow considering what we need to fill on the NHL roster. 

There *is* a reason we aren't factoring higher on lists, and it's not our winger, D, and G depth. And it's not all "anti-buffalo bias" either. 

- - -

All you have to do is look at organizational depth. Cozens and Mittelstadt are also already our *best* centres. Compare Cozens, Thompson, Casey, and Krebs against the league as a whole and...we need to take a C. Up high. 

Isn’t the bold what an NHL GM does? Map out the next 5 years or so by combining the needs of the current roster and what’s coming?

Two years ago, the Oilers, should have been far less concerned about top 6 centres in the pipeline than the Bruins, given the ages of their existing top 2 centres.

You can’t argue that Mitts, Cozens and Thompson aren’t prospects any more and then also argue they aren’t being pencilled into the lineup for the foreseeable future. Unless you see them as busts, two of them will likely be our top two centres for the next few years at least, with the other and Krebs pushing and adding depth, whether at centre or on the wing.

The Sabres centre hole isn’t about the number of young, improving centres they have under team control, it is in the number of good NHL centres they have right now.

Remember this isn’t a discussion about whether the Sabres should pursue more talented centres, it’s a discussion about whether the system is barren.

I don’t think what you are really arguing is that the Sabres system is barren of NHL centres, because it looks like they have at least 3 of them for the next 3-5 years and a 4th coming.  I think what you are arguing is that it is barren of 1st line centres and we need to keep trying to find one.

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Isn’t the bold what an NHL GM does? Map out the next 5 years or so by combining the needs of the current roster and what’s coming?

Two years ago, the Oilers, should have been far less concerned about top 6 centres in the pipeline than the Bruins, given the ages of their existing top 2 centres.

You can’t argue that Mitts, Cozens and Thompson aren’t prospects any more and then also argue they aren’t being pencilled into the lineup for the foreseeable future. Unless you see them as busts, two of them will likely be our top two centres for the next few years at least, with the other and Krebs pushing and adding depth, whether at centre or on the wing.

The Sabres centre hole isn’t about the number of young, improving centres they have under team control, it is in the number of good NHL centres they have right now.

Remember this isn’t a discussion about whether the Sabres should pursue more talented centres, it’s a discussion about whether the system is barren.

I don’t think what you are really arguing is that the Sabres system is barren of NHL centres, because it looks like they have at least 3 of them for the next 3-5 years and a 4th coming.  I think what you are arguing is that it is barren of 1st line centres and we need to keep trying to find one.

 

But ya, I said that's what I was arguing. I've mentioned a bunch that a big part of the allure of Krebs is it's another legit bullet in the group that can realistically produce top 6 Cs, and hopefully even a 1C. Of course I'm not vanishing Cozens or Mittelstadt into thin air, I'm saying it's quite likely only 1 of the two amounts to being a top 6 C, what I'd want from a top 6 C, just playing the odds. Whether that's because Casey ends up a better 3rd scoring Line C or because Cozens shifts to W, who knows. But I wouldn't bet right now on Cozens and Mittelstadt together, as a combo, locking down a true 1C and 2C role, would you? Actually asking. 

Krebs represents another shot at that. He was a really good add. When I say it's barren after Krebs in the system, it mostly about, ya, there's no one else there that has the potential to join that group - but in making that point, it also strikes me that there aren't very many even NHL projectible centres in that group. After, Bloom, I suppose?

That problem is much easier to fix, that's true, we can add Cs that have NHL ceilings (not that we've done it in 2 drafts). But yes, I do think we need one more guy after Krebs, and for that I hope we use a higher pick. 

I can't imagine going 3 years without picking a C top 2 rounds is something we've seen very often - I don't know enough about drafting to claim I know more than the people who have decided that shouldn't happen. 

I don't think the Sabres are organizationally barren at C, at all. I said from the beginning I mean, "after Krebs - in system". Just look at the rankings - it's all W, G, D

[dudacek]

To me, Thompson Olofsson and Asplund is looking like a viable NHL middle-six line that I can trust at both ends of the ice, both right now and over the next few years.

I’m relatively confident the same can happen with a Mitts/Tuch combo.

And I’m also comfortable that Dahlin/Power/Jokiharju/Bryson/Samuelsson/Johnson provide enough pieces to assemble a competitive D corps in the relatively near future.

While I am very high on Levi and I think there is a chance we might get something from UPL or Portillo, I think three years away is best-case scenario for any of them. We need a capable 3-year stopgap, no later than this summer and preferably now, or the house of cards will fall apart.

The million dollar question is what we can get out of Cozens Quinn Krebs Peterka Rosen Poltapov and this year’s 3 1sts? Are there 3 1st-line players in that stew? Or enough top 6ers to make an ‘06 style team viable? How soon will they arrive?

I think the ship has been turned around and our long nightmare of being a laughing stock is coming to an end. It could be as soon as next year.

But the above 9 and the goalie will determine whether we can be perennial contenders or just another team.

Edited November 23, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is the problem.  Outside of the newly acquired Krebs, who is a legit center prospect in our pipeline?  LA has 8 centers they drafted in the 1st 2 rounds.  Outside of acquired prospects Thompson and Krebs, we have 2.  Even with all the young talent in Buffalo and Krebs on the way, you need centers in the pipeline to sustain long-term success.  Why could TB let Tavares go?  It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline.  At some point, one or two or Mitts, Cozens, Krebs or Thompson will move on, who will replace them?

This is not a new problem for us. In 2006 we had no one in the system to replace Briere and Drury when they walked.  The only internally developed top 9 center on that team was Roy. Connolly, Drury and Breire were all acquired in trade.  
 

 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is the problem.  Outside of the newly acquired Krebs, who is a legit center prospect in our pipeline?  LA has 8 centers they drafted in the 1st 2 rounds.  Outside of acquired prospects Thompson and Krebs, we have 2.  Even with all the young talent in Buffalo and Krebs on the way, you need centers in the pipeline to sustain long-term success.  Why could TB let Tavares go?  It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline.  At some point, one or two or Mitts, Cozens, Krebs or Thompson will move on, who will replace them?

This is not a new problem for us. In 2006 we had no one in the system to replace Briere and Drury when they walked.  The only internally developed top 9 center on that team was Roy. Connolly, Drury and Breire were all acquired in trade.  
 

 

This kinda gets to my point about going 3 drafts without drafting a C in the first or second round. I don't really think we'll see it - it's too big of a development gap 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

To me, Thompson Olofsson and Asplund is looking like a viable NHL middle-six line that I can trust at both ends of the ice, both right now and over the next few years.

I’m relatively confident the same can happen with a Mitts/Tuch combo.

And I’m also comfortable that Dahlin/Power/Jokiharju/Bryson/Samuelsson/Johnson provide enough pieces to assemble a competitive D corps in the relatively near future.

While I am very high on Levi and I think there is a chance we might get something from UPL or Portillo, I think three years away is best-case scenario for any of them. We need a capable 3-year stopgap, no later than this summer and preferably now, or the house of cards will fall apart.

The million dollar question is what we can get out of Cozens Quinn Krebs Peterka Rosen Poltapov and this year’s 3 1sts? Are there 3 1st-line players in that stew? Or enough top 6ers to make an ‘06 style team viable? How soon will they arrive?

I think the ship has been turned around and our long nightmare of being a laughing stock is coming to an end. It could be as soon as next year.

But the above 9 and the goalie will determine whether we can be perennial contenders or just another team.

Besides the center pipeline problem and the lack of goaltending, we are shaping up to have a very talented and deep young team next season.  To me, just like this past off-season, getting good goaltending is a priority and the only priority.  I agree that a 3 year deal for a goaltender is ideal.  

With JJP, Quinn, Krebs, Power and Samuelsson joining the Sabres next fall and possibly Laaksonen and or Fitz as well.  The Sabres will have their most talented team since 2006.  The question now is how does KA support the kids and give them a chance to win? The answer again is real goaltending. Vogl has an interesting article on the Atheltic projecting the Sabres over the next few years.

Edited November 23, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is the problem.  Outside of the newly acquired Krebs, who is a legit center prospect in our pipeline?  LA has 8 centers they drafted in the 1st 2 rounds.  Outside of acquired prospects Thompson and Krebs, we have 2.  Even with all the young talent in Buffalo and Krebs on the way, you need centers in the pipeline to sustain long-term success.  Why could TB let Tavares go?  It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline.  At some point, one or two or Mitts, Cozens, Krebs or Thompson will move on, who will replace them?

This is not a new problem for us. In 2006 we had no one in the system to replace Briere and Drury when they walked.  The only internally developed top 9 center on that team was Roy. Connolly, Drury and Breire were all acquired in trade.  
 

 

Think about the bolded.

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This kinda gets to my point about going 3 drafts without drafting a C in the first or second round. I don't really think we'll see it - it's too big of a development gap 

We better hope that Bloom, who moved to center this season from LW and/or Costantini develop into middle six caliber NHL centers.

 

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

Think about the bolded.

Yeah, that’s what happens when you draft and develop centers.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We better hope that Bloom, who moved to center this season from LW and/or Costantini develop into middle six caliber NHL centers.

Because two of Krebs Cozens Mitts and Thompson will not be available for or up to filling that role for the next 5 years?

[DarthEbriate]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

Think about the bolded.

Yes, it was either: Why could TB get away with Stamkos being injured every year and trading away JT Miller? It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline. (And Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson, and Killorn listed as a C despite playing wing every year.)

Or it was: Why could NYI let Tavares go? It’s because they had Barzal and Bailey and Nelson. And a Cizikis anchoring the 4th line, too.

Either way, that's quality center depth.

 

[Curt]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yeah, that’s what happens when you draft and develop centers.

 

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why could TB let Tavares go?  It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline.

Read it again.  I’m just poking fun, but seriously, read it.

[Crusader1969]

How long until Samuelsson is called up ?

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is the problem.  Outside of the newly acquired Krebs, who is a legit center prospect in our pipeline?  LA has 8 centers they drafted in the 1st 2 rounds.  Outside of acquired prospects Thompson and Krebs, we have 2.  Even with all the young talent in Buffalo and Krebs on the way, you need centers in the pipeline to sustain long-term success.  Why could TB let Tavares go?  It’s because they had Point and Cirelli in the pipeline.  At some point, one or two or Mitts, Cozens, Krebs or Thompson will move on, who will replace them?

This is not a new problem for us. In 2006 we had no one in the system to replace Briere and Drury when they walked.  The only internally developed top 9 center on that team was Roy. Connolly, Drury and Breire were all acquired in trade.  
 

 

Agree that 4 young C's/ prospects are too few, but why discount Krebs as a legit prospect when he was obtained for the #2 OA #1 C?  Thompson was obtained for a 1st line C as well.

PS - Zubrov also walked in '07.  People always forget that because he was only brought in to be a rental, but he could've been brought back when the other 2 guys walked.  He was still available at least a week after 7/1/7.  Bring him back & that team likely squeezes into the playoffs and then Roy & Connolly likely aren't viewed in the same negative light they ended being viewed.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Taro T

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Agree that 4 young C's/ prospects are too few, but why discount Krebs as a legit prospect when he was obtained for the #2 OA #1 C?  Thompson was obtained for a 1st line C as well.

I'm OK with 4  young C prospects for now, as long as that gets addressed in the next 2 drafts or with trades.  You don't need them to 'hit' and enter their prime all at the same time, as long as you always have a potential feed coming through the system.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Because two of Krebs Cozens Mitts and Thompson will not be available for or up to filling that role for the next 5 years?

We have no idea how or if any of Mitts, Thompson, Cozens or Krebs will progress over the next 5 years.  None have yet put up 40 pts in an NHL season.  People here were trying to write off Thompson and Mitts just 6 months ago.   So what happens if one or two crap out developmentally or to injury.  Injuries also can derail anyone.  See Eichel and Connolly. Thompson already lost a season to injury.  

Let’s say for arguments sake that all 4 reach their potential.  How do you know we’ll be able to afford to keep them all, especially if stud wingers JJP and Quinn blossom with them? There is only so much cap space.  We don't even know what position these guys will be playing next week, much less 5 years from now.  Krebs and Cozens could both end up as wingers.  Thompson could return to the wing (although I doubt it).  

I am very optimistic about the 4 centers.  We haven't that many talented young centers in decades, if ever.  However, having some centers in the pipeline behind them is still a necessity. 
 

Edited November 23, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have no idea how or if any of Mitts, Thompson, Cozens or Krebs will progress over the next 5 years.  None have yet put up 40 pts in an NHL season.  People here were trying to write off Thompson and Mitts just 6 months ago.   So what happens if one or two crap out?

Injuries also can derail anyone.  See Eichel and Connolly. Thompson already lost a season to injury.  

Let’s say for arguments sake that all 4 reach their potential.  How do you know we’ll be able to afford to keep them all, especially if stud wingers JJP and Quinn blossom with them? There is only so much cap space.  We don't even know what position these guys will be playing next week, much less 5 years from now.  Krebs and Cozens could both end up as wingers.  Thompson could return to the wing (although I doubt it).  

Having some centers in the pipeline behind them is a necessity. 
 

Ironically, all of your examples are ones that I have used to justify why you should never plan to win in some future season, that the season you are in is the season you should plan to win.  The future of what you have, and what you will have one day, is always unknown.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

Ironically, all of your examples are ones that I have used to justify why you should never plan to win in some future season, that the season you are in is the season you should plan to win.  The future of what you have, and what you will have one day, is always unknown.

I don't disagree.  I was dead set against tanking this season.  I wanted us to acquire good goaltending for this season to support the young roster.  I still want us to acquire good goaltending for this season.   

[Norcal]

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have no idea how or if any of Mitts, Thompson, Cozens or Krebs will progress over the next 5 years.  None have yet put up 40 pts in an NHL season.  People here were trying to write off Thompson and Mitts just 6 months ago.   So what happens if one or two crap out developmentally or to injury.  Injuries also can derail anyone.  See Eichel and Connolly. Thompson already lost a season to injury.  

Let’s say for arguments sake that all 4 reach their potential.  How do you know we’ll be able to afford to keep them all, especially if stud wingers JJP and Quinn blossom with them? There is only so much cap space.  We don't even know what position these guys will be playing next week, much less 5 years from now.  Krebs and Cozens could both end up as wingers.  Thompson could return to the wing (although I doubt it).  

I am very optimistic about the 4 centers.  We haven't that many talented young centers in decades, if ever.  However, having some centers in the pipeline behind them is still a necessity. 
 

These arguments apply to any position at any time.

Of course you need to have as much good talent in the system as possible to protect yourself from any eventuality.

[GASabresIUFAN]

50 minutes ago, dudacek said:

These arguments apply to any position at any time.

Of course you need to have as much good talent in the system as possible to protect yourself from any eventuality.

Yes they do, but we have high draft pick or more proven prospect depth at every other position in the pipeline. 
Goalie - UPL, Portillo and Levi

Defense - Power, Samuelsson, Johnson, Laaksonen, Fitzgerald, and Novikov.

Wing - Quinn, JJP, Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Weissbach, Nadeau, Cederqvist and others.

Center - Krebs, Bloom (LW/C - 3rd rd pick) and Costantini (5th rd pick)

Bloom was drafted as a LW, but has moved to center this season in juniors.  Costantini and Bloom have really taken a huge step forward this season and that is great news, but both are years from the Sabres.  Once Krebs graduates to Buffalo, there is a 2-3 year gap down to Bloom or Costantini assuming they continue to progress.

Edited November 23, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes they do, but we have high draft pick or more proven prospect depth at every other position in the pipeline. 
Goalie - UPL, Portillo and Levi

Defense - Power, Samuelsson, Johnson, Laaksonen, Fitzgerald, and Novikov.

Wing - Quinn, JJP, Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Weissbach, Nadeau, Cederqvist and others.

Center - Krebs, Bloom (LW/C - 3rd rd pick) and Costantini (5th rd pick)

Bloom was drafted as a LW, but has moved to center this season in juniors.  Costantini and Bloom have really taken a huge step forward this season and that is great news, but both are years from the Sabres.  Once Krebs graduates to Buffalo, there is a 2-3 year gap down to Bloom or Costantini assuming they continue to progress.

Right. You don’t go three years without taking centres in the key rounds 

[LabattBlue]

Just now, Thorny said:

Right. You don’t go three years without taking centres in the key rounds 

…but Kim knows more than you. 😂

[Digger]

5 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

How long until Samuelsson is called up ?

I stated in the off season that I wanted Samuelsson playing for the Sabres this year.  I think that he's ready and it would be great to have him prove himself this season.  I'm not ready to put him on the top pair though.  He needs to earn his time and make the most of his time when he gets it.  It's a great year for him to play prior to Power making the team next season (or at the end of the year).  It will be difficult to manage too many rookies next season but we'll see.

[Crusader1969]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

This is very disappointing. Was looking forward to watching them play.

 

You may already know this but Russian games are available on YouTube.  Would have been great to see them play vs their peers though