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Evolving Wild Contract Projections for the 2021 Offseason


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33 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Different levels of “bust potential” with both.  Dahlin has displayed glimpses of greatness on offense, but similar train wreck qualities  in his own zone still not resolved and displayed as recently as Thursday.  So the term bust is used very loosely.  Not outside a top 4, just not a #1 overall cornerstone piece.  I cannot just hope these traits get fixed.  And without a drastic improvement in such  I would not commit term, hence my preference to a bridge.  Diff’rent Strokes I guess.

If he reaches #1 potential you’re paying him $12M+ but this proposed deal is not that.

23 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 

So you want to risk another  reinhart situation? This is the casey we're getting the video game  fast food junkie is gone 

If you have the opportunity to sign a core player for cheap you do it .

There is no “Reinhart situation.” He isn’t going to get THAT much more now than he would’ve before. And Mittelstadt hasn’t shown anywhere near what Reinhart had.

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7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Fully expect that Dahlin will be at minimum be adequate in his own end (he usually is adequate there now, but does still have some spectacular miscues), if not downright good to very good given two more seasons.  A partner like Borgen w/ a defensive focus won't hurt any either.

The thing with Dahlin is...he doesn't have to be great in his own end without the puck...just decent...and that makes him a very good D-man.  As you said, don't make huge mistakes....and then his strength should be getting to the puck in the D-zone, and being very good once he gets possession of getting out of of the zone.

A great Defensive D-man doesn't have to be a big hitter who clears out the front of the net and is always in good position.  There are a lot of loose pucks in this game, if he can just use his speed/quickness/skating to get to those loose pucks a half second better than anyone else, that makes him good on the back end.

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50 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If he reaches #1 potential you’re paying him $12M+ but this proposed deal is not that.

There is no “Reinhart situation.” He isn’t going to get THAT much more now than he would’ve before. And Mittelstadt hasn’t shown anywhere near what Reinhart had.

Has 16 points in the last 18 and on a 5 game point Streak after ralph is gone.

What happens when he  Explodes for 50 to 60 points next year then you have the oh is the real ? Aka Reinhart  Let's sign him to another bridge deal and  Screwing us in the end..

Sign him for cheap the flyers did with Simmonds, Couturier and look how that turned  out 

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27 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Has 16 points in the last 18 and on a 5 game point Streak after ralph is gone.

What happens when he  Explodes for 50 to 60 points next year then you have the oh is the real ? Aka Reinhart  Let's sign him to another bridge deal and  Screwing us in the end..

Sign him for cheap the flyers did with Simmonds, Couturier and look how that turned  out 

Simmonds never signed a multi-year contract worth more than $4M and Couturier is nearing the end of a six-year deal that paid him $4.3M per so I don’t understand the comparisons there. I think Philly is very happy with how both situations have gone.

I’m not going to get into the business of signing contracts based on an 18 game sample size. That’s how you end up with bad contracts. I’d rather sign a guy to a long-term deal if he puts up something like 40-23-63 over a full season on the roster.

 

... Jeff Skinner joke aside there’s not enough of a sample size for me to want to give Mittelstadt a long-term deal unless it’s dirt cheap to do so and the player will not agree to that.

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27 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Simmonds never signed a multi-year contract worth more than $4M and Couturier is nearing the end of a six-year deal that paid him $4.3M per so I don’t understand the comparisons there. I think Philly is very happy with how both situations have gone.

I’m not going to get into the business of signing contracts based on an 18 game sample size. That’s how you end up with bad contracts. I’d rather sign a guy to a long-term deal if he puts up something like 40-23-63 over a full season on the roster.

 

... Jeff Skinner joke aside there’s not enough of a sample size for me to want to give Mittelstadt a long-term deal unless it’s dirt cheap to do so and the player will not agree to that.

They both signed for cheap before they  Exploded and thats what buffalo needs to do with casey 

Did the flyers think both Simmonds and Couturier would go from 30 point  players to all stars ? They took a chance and won 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

They both signed for cheap before they  Exploded and thats what buffalo needs to do with casey 

Did the flyers think both Simmonds and Couturier would go from 30 point  players to all stars ? They took a chance and won 

Ah, I misread what you said so point taken. My apologies.

I am still not handing out long-term deals for guys based on very small sample size. What’s your proposed deal for Casey?

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2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'll take those projections, but the McCabe deal is way off.  What does he have to prove?  

I'd also try to lock up Mitts longer then 2 years.

With McCabe’s Injury keeping Him out 6-8 Months from February 20th, other teams might be hesitant to give Him A Long Term Deal. The Sabres should try and take advantage of this and sign Him to a 2-3 year deal with a Higher AAV

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2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

With McCabe’s Injury keeping Him out 6-8 Months from February 20th, other teams might be hesitant to give Him A Long Term Deal. The Sabres should try and take advantage of this and sign Him to a 2-3 year deal with a Higher AAV

With his injury I don’t expect any real competition for McCabe’s services and I imagine getting him back in the fold will come cheap if they want it.

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3 hours ago, Hoss said:

If he reaches #1 potential you’re paying him $12M+ but this proposed deal is not that.

There is no “Reinhart situation.” He isn’t going to get THAT much more now than he would’ve before. And Mittelstadt hasn’t shown anywhere near what Reinhart had.

The more distressing thing about Reinhart and his situation is they may be forced to trade him. Agree w/you as it pertains to Casey, though 

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If everyone and their mother is projecting Reinhart to get (from Buffalo or elsewhere) in the ballpark of 6.3mil.+ on a multi year deal.... and you wouldn’t give him that because “he’s not worth it” ... then you are the one who is way off base on projecting accurately. Not everyone else. Adjust your expectations or be left in the dust with being remotely accurate with your opinion of contracts. Some like to think contract projections are 5 years ahead of schedule. Hmmm what did so and so player get in 2016?  5.1 million? Ok well he’s better than Reinhart so I’m not paying Reinhart more in 2021 😂

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4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Why? He's shown a little offensive prowess late this season but he's not been all that. Don't see how he deserves any more money than say Zemgus. 

When Ralph got canned all the young guns stepped up 16pts in 18 games now  He's not some gamer that eats fast food anymore get it done please 

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2 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

A majority of the board was done with Mitts not too long ago. 

Ok. I personally don’t remember it that way.

Probably around 20-25 “vocal” posters wanted him gone. The other 50-60 posters who aren’t nearly as “vocal” or don’t post daily, but enough ... wanted to either see how he develops, or were discouraged but never wanted him actually gone out of the organization.

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36 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Not too long ago, a majority of the board wanted Mitts out for a bag of mediocre chips. 

A handful of games later, people want to overpay him?

Or we could just sign him for 2 years and he  Explodes and we have to pay him a shitload.

This is why buffalo always gets ***** contracts Always waiting and boom 

 Let's not forget everyone We could have signed Skinner for 7 million dollar  But we waited

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36 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Or we could just sign him for 2 years and he  Explodes and we have to pay him a shitload.

This is why buffalo always gets ***** contracts Always waiting and boom 

 Let's not forget everyone We could have signed Skinner for 7 million dollar  But we waited

Anyone have game theory software to use?

Seriously, though, assuming Eichel and Reinhart are here next year with Cozens, we can expect Mittlestadt and his linemates to get favourable match-ups late in games because teams need to defend 2 tough lines in front of them.  I might go longer term with him, Asplund, Reinhart, and whomever we put on their wings.  Consider that before the offseason, we have at least the following line-up (I gave Cozens two bodyguards so that he can just work on his game):

Ruotsalainen-Eichel-Bjork

Skinner-Reinhart-Olofsson

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson 

Girgensons-Cozens-Okposo

I personally would swap out some of the wings for players with different skills (diligent checking and responsible defence, to name 2).  That would give us 3 legitimate 2-way lines with at least moderately dangerous scoring threats.

IMHO, that 4th line will eat most other 4th lines for lunch and may check many top lines into oblivion.  Thus, I want key guys signed for some term at decent prices while the cap is flat.

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15 hours ago, Hoss said:

If he reaches #1 potential you’re paying him $12M+ but this proposed deal is not that.

There is no “Reinhart situation.” He isn’t going to get THAT much more now than he would’ve before. And Mittelstadt hasn’t shown anywhere near what Reinhart had.

The “Reinhart situation” he was referring to may not have been the potential future overpayment of Reinhart. I was thinking it was the series of short term deals  bringing him to UFA status (and potential departure) as quickly as possible.

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17 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Or we could just sign him for 2 years and he  Explodes and we have to pay him a shitload.

This is why buffalo always gets ***** contracts Always waiting and boom 

 Let's not forget everyone We could have signed Skinner for 7 million dollar  But we waited

What is this based on?

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Just now, Buffalonill said:

They could have singed him around December or January but they waited like they always do till his value went sky high 

They could have signed him in January for $7 million when he was sitting on 30 goals in 44 games?

But the price went up to $9 million after he closed with 10 goals in his next 38?

Until I see a source on that, colour me skeptical.

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6 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

They could have singed him around December or January but they waited like they always do till his value went sky high 

This is just a repetition of your prior assertion.  What is that assertion based on?  Just your gut feel?  Any source?  Anything?

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