Another Reason to be Optimistic about Dylan Cozens

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

He should be on a wing next year protected by one or more defensively responsible centermen. 

2019-20 Eichel was good if not very good defensively... Maybe him?

Jack was pretty reasonable defensively last year. Significantly better than McDavid, for example. Matthews was, too, actually. 

If you want to see a player who's actually "bad" defensively while putting up offensive numbers, watch Mark Scheifele 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Possible? Definitely. Confident it'll happen? Not at all. 40 points is a lot, honestly. 

People were comparing young Cozens to young Jack. Maybe we should start with young Reinhart, instead, and not the guy who, when he was Dylan's age, finished in a virtual tie for a spot in the Top 10 of LEAGUE WIDE scoring. 

Sam had 42 points his rookie year, his second year post draft, like Dylan. NM Jack, we forget how good even Sam is sometimes. They always get compared to the outliers, and I get that, because that's what their draft position is often representative of, but we should be careful in shrinking the relativity comparison to such a limited scale. 

Especially if drafting (and by extension draft position) is as much of a craps shoot as everyone says, right?

I like the Reinhart comparison and the implication (production-wise) that he is behind him at the same age.

I think Dylan's approach could mean his development is more linear than Casey's and will ultimately mean he will be a better all-around player. I'm not sure he will be more productive. I do believe some people should temper their expectations.

Anyone who was comparing young Cozens to young Jack shouldn't have been. Different tiers of talent.

[Sabre fan]

oddly I do think Dylan has a chance top become much more of a leader even if he doesn't have the "C"

[Thorny]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I like the Reinhart comparison and the implication (production-wise) that he is behind him at the same age.

I think Dylan's approach could mean his development is more linear than Casey's and will ultimately mean he will be a better all-around player. I'm not sure he will be more productive. I do believe some people should temper their expectations.

Anyone who was comparing young Cozens to young Jack shouldn't have been. Different tiers of talent.

Linear in terms of measuring his overall progress, I agree. But I think there's a ton of potential development on the horizon for Cozens in a few different directions, which sets him apart from Casey - offensively AND defensively, at least (I'll get to the 3rd one, later). Which goes to your point about all-around - he should surpass all of Eichel, Reinhart, and Mittelstadt defensively. I think he surpasses Casey's raw production, honestly. For all the progress we've seen Casey make with his snipes - he isn't playmaking for shite right now, and generally that's something you look for in a centre. Has he reached double digit assists yet this season? Dylan is a much better playmaker than many gave him credit for entering into the draft. And he's a better playmaker than Casey. Casey may pot more goals but I'd still give Dylan the production edge.

In honestly I haven't tempered my expectations for Cozens. My expectations may be different, everyone has their own thinking, but I still see a Scheifele-like offensive ceiling. His commitment to the other end of the ice, that Scheifele completely lacks, is what lends excitment. 

And I really like mentioning Scheifele here because Dylan is comparable to him in another facet - size(area 3). Cozens doesn't use his size yet, and there is more size to come. They are big players. Maximizing the physical component is definitely an avenue for future development, and to your point about Dylan's approach: I see no reason he won't seek to maximize that in a way that Scheifele, and even Jack, didn't. And where Casey and Sam can't. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[inkman]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Possible? Definitely. Confident it'll happen? Not at all. 40 points is a lot, honestly. 

People were comparing young Cozens to young Jack. Maybe we should start with young Reinhart, instead, and not the guy who, when he was Dylan's age, finished in a virtual tie for a spot in the Top 10 of LEAGUE WIDE scoring. 

Sam had 42 points his rookie year, his second year post draft, like Dylan. NM Jack, we forget how good even Sam is sometimes. They always get compared to the outliers, and I get that, because that's what their draft position is often representative of, but we should be careful in shrinking the relativity comparison to such a limited scale. 

Especially if drafting (and by extension draft position) is as much of a craps shoot as everyone says, right?

 

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I like the Reinhart comparison and the implication (production-wise) that he is behind him at the same age.

I think Dylan's approach could mean his development is more linear than Casey's and will ultimately mean he will be a better all-around player. I'm not sure he will be more productive. I do believe some people should temper their expectations.

Anyone who was comparing young Cozens to young Jack shouldn't have been. Different tiers of talent.

I see Dylan’s ceiling as Jeff Carter.  Floor somewhere around Curtis Brown. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, inkman said:

 

I see Dylan’s ceiling as Jeff Carter.  Floor somewhere around Curtis Brown. 

I see a lot of Jeff Carter in Cozens, this is a good comparison and one I've been on board with. Though I think Dylan's a better skater

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

What does @Weavesay his comparable is? He already Sharply pegged Sam

[Weave]

46 minutes ago, Thorny said:

What does @Weavesay his comparable is? He already Sharply pegged Sam

I think the kid is a mean streak away from being Peca.  Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he gets Selke talk in his prime.  Curtis Brown sounds like a good floor.

He should have a very good all around 2C ceiling and a good checking 3C floor.
 

I just don’t watch enough hockey anymore to find a more modern comparable.  The last 7 yrs have ruined me.

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think the kid is a mean streak away from being Peca.  Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he gets Selke talk in his prime.  Curtis Brown sounds like a good floor.

He should have a very good all around 2C ceiling and a good checking 3C floor.
 

I just don’t watch enough hockey anymore to find a more modern comparable.  The last 7 yrs have ruined me.

I think there might be more offense there than Peca, who topped out at a 60 point player, especially if we are talking ceiling

[inkman]

28 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think the kid is a mean streak away from being Peca.  Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he gets Selke talk in his prime.  Curtis Brown sounds like a good floor.

He should have a very good all around 2C ceiling and a good checking 3C floor.
 

I just don’t watch enough hockey anymore to find a more modern comparable.  The last 7 yrs have ruined me.

Why do you think I picked guys drafted 20 years ago as comparables. 😀 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

What does @Weavesay his comparable is? He already Sharply pegged Sam

I see what you did there.  Too bad we don’t have an emoji for that. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, inkman said:

Why do you think I picked guys drafted 20 years ago as comparables. 😀 

I see what you did there.  Too bad we don’t have an emoji for that. 

[Weave]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think there might be more offense there than Peca, who topped out at a 60 point player, especially if we are talking ceiling

60pts would put him in Barkov-ROR territory.  Thats a helluva player.  I’m thinking thats his absolute ceiling.  50-55 more realistic.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

60pts would put him in Barkov-ROR territory.  Thats a helluva player.  I’m thinking thats his absolute ceiling.  50-55 more realistic.

But Peca wasn't a 60 point player - he only did it once. 

Peca was a 40-45 point player. Too low for a ceiling IMO

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But Peca wasn't a 60 point player - he only did it once. 

Peca was a 40-45 point player. Too low for a ceiling IMO

Ok call him a potential 50pt center with excellent 2 way game as a potential.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

Ok call him a potential 50pt center with excellent 2 way game as a potential.

Adjust Peca's production for era and you may be on it anyways

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

Maybe it was a convo with you... or maybe someone else.  I don’t remember.  But recently I had a short exchange with someone who claimed Eichel was an X points player based on projections and I replied that you can’t be an X points player if you don’t play enough games to get to X points. Yet here we are claiming Peca isn’t a 60pt forward because he only got there once.  He’s more a 60pt forward than whatever pt level we were projecting Eichel to be but hasn’t actually achieved yet.

 

Just a tandom thought after 3 whiskeys on a wet Friday afternoon...

Edited May 7, 2021 by Weave

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, Weave said:

60pts would put him in Barkov-ROR territory.  Thats a helluva player.  I’m thinking thats his absolute ceiling.  50-55 more realistic.

60 points is Barkov-ROR territory?  Go look at what each of those guys has done the past 3 years.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

Maybe it was a convo with you... or maybe someone else.  I don’t remember.  But recently I had a short exchange with someone who claimed Eichel was an X points player based on projections and I replied that you can’t be an X points player if you don’t play enough games to get to X points. Yet here we are claiming Peca isn’t a 60pt forward because he only got there once.  He’s more a 60pt forward than whatever pt level we were projecting Eichel to be but hasn’t actually achieved yet.

I was in the convo, yes.

I'd argue the bold is incorrect. In that convo we had settled on 80 point player, at this time, if you remember. I'd argue that Eichel is more of an 80 point player than Peca is a 60 point man, because we know to a certainty Peca only did it once, whereas Jack did it once in 6 seasons, and we know there are more seasons to come. There is zero likelihood Peca is a 60 point player if longevity is a factor (and it should be, I agree), and there is certainly at least a reasonable likelihood Jack is an 80 point man, at this point. Certainly he *may* achieve that standard, but Peca cannot acheive his.

And for all intents and purposes, Jack has done it twice, as he was at 78 in 68 last year before covid. We cannot reasonably hold that against him 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

We cannot reasonably hold that against him 

I never claimed to be reasonable.  Especially after a day on a barstool.

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

60 points is Barkov-ROR territory?  Go look at what each of those guys has done the past 3 years.

Lol I checked last seasons stats before I posted.  Did I look up something incorrectly?

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And for all intents and purposes, Jack has done it twice, as he was at 78 in 68 last year before covid. We cannot reasonably hold that against him 

Unfair as it might be, Jack will always be looked at as not as good as McDavid. That "2 generational players" thing was hyped up so much it resurfaces easily and often. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

I never claimed to be reasonable.  Especially after a day on a barstool.

Lol I checked last seasons stats before I posted.  Did I look up something incorrectly?

I concede and should know better than to debate projections with the master...projector 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Unfair as it might be, Jack will always be looked at as not as good as McDavid. That "2 generational players" thing was hyped up so much it resurfaces easily and often. 

And Sergio Garcia will always be laughed at for not living up to his "Tiger's next great rival" mantra but he looked pretty damn happy when he won that first major, nonetheless. I'd imagine his fans were, too 

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I concede and should know better than to debate projections with the master...projector 

I’m a baiter, not a projector.

[Thorny]

Just now, Weave said:

I’m a baiter, not a projector.

that was what the "..." was supposed to represent me considering typing...but the "W" is yours for typing it, in the end

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Linear in terms of measuring his overall progress, I agree. But I think there's a ton of potential development on the horizon for Cozens in a few different directions, which sets him apart from Casey - offensively AND defensively, at least (I'll get to the 3rd one, later). Which goes to your point about all-around - he should surpass all of Eichel, Reinhart, and Mittelstadt defensively. I think he surpasses Casey's raw production, honestly. For all the progress we've seen Casey make with his snipes - he isn't playmaking for shite right now, and generally that's something you look for in a centre. Has he reached double digit assists yet this season? Dylan is a much better playmaker than many gave him credit for entering into the draft. And he's a better playmaker than Casey. Casey may pot more goals but I'd still give Dylan the production edge.

In honestly I haven't tempered my expectations for Cozens. My expectations may be different, everyone has their own thinking, but I still see a Scheifele-like offensive ceiling. His commitment to the other end of the ice, that Scheifele completely lacks, is what lends excitment. 

And I really like mentioning Scheifele here because Dylan is comparable to him in another facet - size(area 3). Cozens doesn't use his size yet, and there is more size to come. They are big players. Maximizing the physical component is definitely an avenue for future development, and to your point about Dylan's approach: I see no reason he won't seek to maximize that in a way that Scheifele, and even Jack, didn't. And where Casey and Sam can't. 

Casey's got 12 assists, including a gorgeous one last night. Cozens has 9.

Production aside, I see Casey doing a good job seeing open teammates and getting them puck, and also creating open space for them with his stickhandling. I have no worries about that area of the game for him. Reinhart is only one doing these things better currently among our forwards. He has 8 assists in his past 20 games and I don't have a problem projecting him as a 30-assist guy going forward (with allowances for small sample size)

I agree Dylan is underrated in this area, or at least he's better than I thought he was when we picked him. He does these things much differently than Casey but should be at least as effective when both mature.

I think what we are seeing is a lot closer to peak Casey than peak Dylan