Faceoffs don't really matter

[LGR4GM]

 

[tom webster]

Analytics continues to pound this drum but we all know that winning draws is better then losing them and losing it as cleanly as Sam did on that draw to start the 6 on 3 is inexcusable.

[bunomatic]

Cousins couldn’t win a draw tonight to save his life. Good thing it doesn’t matter. 

[LGR4GM]

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by LGR4GM

[tom webster]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

 

 

 

Well that’s obvious as well. Maybe just as obvious that you need your best players to to be a little better at the finer points in the game. This is a league were the margin of error is razor thin and details are important.

[SwampD]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I am absolutely positive that a team's overall FO% has no impact on a team's goal diff for that game. Did we really need some guy who wants to feel smart tell us that to know it?

But.

There are face-offs that matter. There are face-offs that don't.

Winning certain FOs may help you win. Losing others won't mean you lose.

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, SwampD said:

There are face-offs that matter. There are face-offs that don't.

Winning certain FOs may help you win.

[Chris Drury nods his approval.]

[bunomatic]

In a game where puck possession is important winning the draw to gain possession is pretty important. That being said once you lose possession winning that particular faceoff now doesn’t matter. Certainly in overtime where its basically playing keep away and teams sometimes keep possession the entire overtime or until they score.

Basically what Swamp said

Edited April 21, 2021 by bunomatic

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, bunomatic said:

Cousins couldn’t win a draw tonight to save his life. Good thing it doesn’t matter. 

I could be wrong, but I think he lost every single draw. 

otherwise, this notion is a perfect example of how stats can tell you anything and also nothing. The overtime example is a good one. Face offs make a huge difference in the 3 on 3. It's all about which draws and when. 

[Sabre fan]

7 hours ago, Eleven said:

[Chris Drury nods his approval.]

as does ROR...

[Torpedo Forecheck]

Rule of thumb: if you get a chance to win a draw -go ahead and get possession, it might help.

All that is needed to know

[klos1963]

Besides the final goal, the one thing that I always think of when going over the 1999 finals is how Joe Nieuwedyk won almost every faceoff , especially in the most critical times. Faceoffs are huge.

[Randall Flagg]

My friend, if negligible R^2 is all the justification you need to believe something, I could change the way you see a lot of things in this world with just an array of R^2 values 

[Sabre fan]

I do think that there is potential here and obviously coach Granato has a ton of things to address with the team after taking over as they were a complete 100% mess. having said that faceoffs are something they can work at but we can all agree we can see a huge difference already and this is for sure a work in progress and will take time.  Boston has very good centers and are playing real well right now so this is a big test but losing 0-2 and being in the game and giving the Bruins all they could handle I think was pretty darn good. Tired of negative...we have had that too long! Let's look at the positive side...team is young and obviously with good coaching these young guys have improved and will continue to do so including working on faceoffs...  

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

My friend, if negligible R^2 is all the justification you need to believe something, I could change the way you see a lot of things in this world with just an array of R^2 values 

[Curt]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Need to see the actual numbers there.  That chart is basically unreadable.  It actually looks like that chart was made to look pretty, not give me useful information.

Whats the difference in goal differential between a team winning 60% and on winning 40%?  I can’t tell from the chart, but from the looks of it, I would say it’s 0.25 goals, maybe close to 0.50 goals.  That’s not nothing.  This chart looks like it’s telling me that FO% matters a little bit.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Curt

[#freejame]

Face-offs matter when they matter, it’s as simple as that. A lot of face-offs might not seem like they matter during the course of a game, but in hindsight they mattered a lot. 

[lost in dc]

Why have them if they don’t matter? 

[LabattBlue]

If nothing else, faceoffs are a big deal at the start of a PP.   The team on the PP is gifted an o-zone faceoff to start the PP.  Win the faceoff, you setup your PP and go.  Lose that same faceoff, the puck is cleared, and probably 20-30 seconds are off the penalty time by the time you are set back up in the opposing teams end. 

[Torpedo Forecheck]

I have an idea to test this theory:

Next game don't even try on any of the face-offs and just let the opponent win it.

[Norcal]

I don't think a team needs to win every draw but there are some that are more important than others.

 

[mjd1001]

If I'm looking at the chart (and the blue line in it) correctly, it shows that winning faceoffs DO matter, just not by a large margin.  

As others have said, faceoffs might not mean MUCH, but if you had a choice of winning them or not...you always want to take winning them.  Maybe the whole point is that it isn't worth playing a player who is a worse overall player just because he is somewhat good at faceoffs compared to your other options.

[thewookie1]

I think faceoffs vary in value.

Defensive Zone faceoffs, especially on the PK, are rather important as you can kill 15 to 25 seconds with a win a clear.

Offensive Zone faceoffs, especially on PP, are of some importance as it allows you to control the puck in the offensive zone immediately.

Neutral Zone Faceoffs are practically worthless barring very specific circumstances.

3v3 Faceoffs are Vital

 

Effectively if you only win 35% of the total draws; yet win 65% of the D-zone draws then you likely have a better chance of winning. Offensive draws are useful in many circumstances but rarely hurt you, but can help you. Neutral Zone draws rarely mean much of anything as neither team can typically score or gain a large advantage through winning it.

[pi2000]

Last night 6 of 8 winning teams also won more faceoffs.     

Winning face-offs alone won't win you a game, that's obvious....  but it's definitely part of the equation.

[PerreaultForever]

An interesting stat might be has a team that sucks at face offs, and I'm not talking about just losing them 49%-51% or something, but a team bad at faceoffs ever gone far in the playoffs?