Jack Eichel: Trade rumors and speculation

[nfreeman]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'm not saying this isn't true, now, but imagine how that return would have been considered, when this thread started. It would have been seen as a laughable result imo for a franchise C.

As I said, given circumstances, it may indeed be job well done. But that's only if you are under the belief KA and co. aren't themselves behind a big bit of the impetus to move Jack Eichel.

Whether or not Theodore (and pieces) for Eichel turns out to be a great result does still depend on what happens with all the players and components of the deal, following the deal. 

If one believes "Jack wants out" and keeping him just was never an option, you can basically just disregard the above. 

Well, some of us have been of the opinion from the get-go that Eichel's value would be significantly reduced due to the injury.  I think the injury, not KA's decision to move on from Jack (which is still only a working theory here, although I admit it's pretty persuasive), is and has always been the key factor in reducing his trade value -- so those IMHO are the circumstances under which it will have been a job well done by KA.

You are of course correct that the proof of a Theodore trade, or any other trade, will be in the pudding.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

This is 100% where I'm at. I'm still not a fan of the return because I'm not

A) Convinced his trade value wasn't higher back in May

B) Convinced keeping Eichel wasn't originally an option

Pretty much. 

It could turn out to be really good. If Eichel behind the scenes more less told them to get him out of here, that has to be considered and weighted. Like you, though, I'm not convinced they needed to move him, I do think it was an Adams idea at first, actually. 

If we get Shea Theodore back and he plays at an average of his last 3 seasons going for the next 3 seasons after this one, the duration of his deal, and the picks/prospects we get amount to mid-6 mid pair players, is it still a "great" result if Jack simply returns to what he was, pre-injury (a bonafide all-star 1C) for the trading team? 

I'd argue the deal kinda stinks then. Not saying that'll happen at all. Merely that whether the trade is good depends on what happens after. 

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, some of us have been of the opinion from the get-go that Eichel's value would be significantly reduced due to the injury.  I think the injury, not KA's decision to move on from Jack (which is still only a working theory here, although I admit it's pretty persuasive), is and has always been the key factor in reducing his trade value -- so those IMHO are the circumstances under which it will have been a job well done by KA.

You are of course correct that the proof of a Theodore trade, or any other trade, will be in the pudding.

That's the thing with the injury - it just depends what happens with Jack. It fits right in with the last sentence in your post. If KA could have kept Jack, he could have kept him and presumably gotten the healed up version we see. He's choosing NOT to keep and and NOT take that risk, right?

There's certainly going to be something to be said for failing to take that risk, if the surgery is a resounding success and he wins the conn smythe in June for Vegas, right?

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Don’t you think Theodore with a Turcotte/Krebs would be a ballpark return for a healthy Eichel?

I don’t mean one that would make you happy necessarily, but 1st pairing D in his prime and excellent centre prospect for a legit 1C seems within expected ranges no?

According to the trade market? Absolutely.

[Thorny]

But as I've spoken on before, the market value of a player measures just that - their market value. Ristolainen got a better return than Reinhart. They aren't even close as players. Right now, d-men have inflated value. You can see over the years that the market fluctuates - what a player gets one year won't be what a similar player gets, in another year. Not always. It's too time-dependant for me to see it as a conclusive measure of a player's true value. 

Indeed in this case, when I am of the opinion that keeping him IS an option. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Thorny

[NAF]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But as I've spoken on before, the market value of a player measures just that - their market value. Ristolainen got a better return than Reinhart. They aren't even close as players. Right now, d-men have inflated value. You can see over the years that the market fluctuates - what a player gets one year won't be what a similar player gets, in another year. Not always. It's too time-dependant for me to see it as a conclusive measure of a player's true value. 

Indeed in this case, when I am of the opinion that keeping him IS an option. 

I think recent trades have seen centers fetch more value than wingers (like Reinhart), which is why I'm holding out hope that the Sabres get a haul for Eichel.

 

If Eichel is being sent to Vegas -- which Friedman seems to be convinced of -- I think the Sabres need to get Krebs back in return. People forget he was ranked in the top 6-7 of the 2019 draft but fell to Vegas at 17 due to injury. He hasn't had much time in the NHL but has done pretty well in the AHL (small sample size though). Plus the team could always use a good Western Canadian kid.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Friedman mentioned His Sources have gone quiet over the past few days which usually means one of the following 

1. They are on a plane with no WiFi

2. They are sleeping

3. The deal is getting close. 
 

He feels it’s Number 3. And that Vegas and Buffalo are trying to get this over the finish line. No names are being leaked in case it doesn’t get done. 

I think this is the case. The Sabres would get Theodore, a Conditional First and maybe a Prospect. 
Theodore gets flipped for a some combination of 2 Firsts, a Center Prospect. 
 

The Final Return would be 2-3 Firsts, Center Prospect and something else. 

7 minutes ago, NAF said:

I think recent trades have seen centers fetch more value than wingers (like Reinhart), which is why I'm holding out hope that the Sabres get a haul for Eichel.

 

If Eichel is being sent to Vegas -- which Friedman seems to be convinced of -- I think the Sabres need to get Krebs back in return. People forget he was ranked in the top 6-7 of the 2019 draft but fell to Vegas at 17 due to injury. He hasn't had much time in the NHL but has done pretty well in the AHL (small sample size though). Plus the team could always use a good Western Canadian kid.

If you're getting Theodore, Krebs stays in Vegas. 

My guess is if Friedman is right, the hold up is the flip of Theodore, with salary retained, to a 3rd team.

Edited October 29, 2021 by LGR4GM
Spelling

[Thorny]

a good looking trade yields this responds: 

a poor looking trade, along with allusions to ROR: 

[Buffalonill]

If they dont get Peyton Krebs  I will explode that would be another  ROR trade 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Buffalonill said:

If they dont get Peyton Krebs  I will explode that would be another  ROR trade 

now THIS is a threat that deserves it's own thread 

[mjd1001]

Just now, Buffalonill said:

If they dont get Peyton Krebs  I will explode that would be another  ROR trade 

Many of us wont' be happy, but at this point I don't think there is anything the Sabres can do about it. The have shopped him around for months.  At some point, you have to understand the 'item you are selling' is not worth what you THINK it should be worth, but it is worth what someone is willing to pay.  The Sabres could have been holding out for a Zegras/Krebs type player, but if no one was giving you that for month and months and months, at some point you have to realize your asset (in its current condition) isn't worth what we all want it to be.

If this deal with Vegas is getting ready to go down, Adams should be making one last call to the other teams he talked to and letting them know this is their last chance.  Once you decide to deal him, you take the best 'last' offer that anyone makes.

[NAF]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If you're getting Theodore, Krebs stays in Vegas. 

My guess is if Friedman is right, the hold up is the flip of Theodore, with salary retained, to a 3rd team.

What is that third team? IMO Theodore alone doesn't fetch a top center prospect like Turcotte or McMichael. Perhaps something else would have to be added?

[Indabuff]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

a good looking trade yields this responds: 

a poor looking trade, along with allusions to ROR: 

Looks like that sabre just missed the jugular.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, NAF said:

What is that third team? IMO Theodore alone doesn't fetch a top center prospect like Turcotte or McMichael. Perhaps something else would have to be added?

I'd take Theodore over either of those guys in a second

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Many of us wont' be happy, but at this point I don't think there is anything the Sabres can do about it. The have shopped him around for months.  At some point, you have to understand the 'item you are selling' is not worth what you THINK it should be worth, but it is worth what someone is willing to pay.  The Sabres could have been holding out for a Zegras/Krebs type player, but if no one was giving you that for month and months and months, at some point you have to realize your asset (in its current condition) isn't worth what we all want it to be.

If this deal with Vegas is getting ready to go down, Adams should be making one last call to the other teams he talked to and letting them know this is their last chance.  Once you decide to deal him, you take the best 'last' offer that anyone makes.

What is “this point” and why have we arrived at it? Has Pegula grown tired of paying Eichel to do nothing? Because if not, then there is absolutely no reason why KA and Co. can’t wait longer for the injury situation to resolve, Eichel returns to the ice, and potential trade partners are satisfied he is back to being an elite, All Star centerman in the league and are willing to meet the price to acquire such a player.

It’s all up to Pegula and given his past reluctance to pay ROR his bonus, I can see where he might be weary of continuing to pay Eichel and has instructed KA to move Eichel for whatever he can get now. 

[SDS]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, some of us have been of the opinion from the get-go that Eichel's value would be significantly reduced due to the injury.  I think the injury, not KA's decision to move on from Jack (which is still only a working theory here, although I admit it's pretty persuasive), is and has always been the key factor in reducing his trade value -- so those IMHO are the circumstances under which it will have been a job well done by KA.

You are of course correct that the proof of a Theodore trade, or any other trade, will be in the pudding.

Count me in as one of the people who thought since the beginning that the return was going to be significantly lower while his neck issues remain unresolved.

If fans need any more reasons to consider the inherent risk of the situation, you only have to look at the fact that a generational 1C Center has not been moved and reported sticking points include giving up players who haven’t  even proved themselves yet.

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, NAF said:

What is that third team? IMO Theodore alone doesn't fetch a top center prospect like Turcotte or McMichael. Perhaps something else would have to be added?

I wouldn't consider Turcotte a top center prospect. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

That's the thing with the injury - it just depends what happens with Jack. It fits right in with the last sentence in your post. If KA could have kept Jack, he could have kept him and presumably gotten the healed up version we see. He's choosing NOT to keep and and NOT take that risk, right?

There's certainly going to be something to be said for failing to take that risk, if the surgery is a resounding success and he wins the conn smythe in June for Vegas, right?

This is more than fair and of a piece with holding KA accountable for the final results -- not just of a trade, but of everything -- which I totally agree with.

At the same time, the other scenario has to be considered:  the Sabres walk away with Theodore and Krebs in exchange for a diminished Eichel or an Eichel who looks great for 20 games but gets knocked out again when the ADR can't hold up the NHL grind.  If that happens KA is totally vindicated.

[SDS]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

This is more than fair and of a piece with holding KA accountable for the final results -- not just of a trade, but of everything -- which I totally agree with.

At the same time, the other scenario has to be considered:  the Sabres walk away with Theodore and Krebs in exchange for a diminished Eichel or an Eichel who looks great for 20 games but gets knocked out again when the ADR can't hold up the NHL grind.  If that happens KA is totally vindicated.

What bothers me about the last part of this argument is that no one in this situation is smarter than anyone else per se. Adams doesn’t know what’s going to happen. Other GM’s don’t know what’s going to happen. People can guess correctly, but nobody actually knows, so it’ll be hard for me too assigned credit and blame when all of this is sorted out. It’s all mind games.

[Curt]

47 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

If they dont get Peyton Krebs  I will explode that would be another  ROR trade 

Even if they get Theodore , a 1st and a lesser prospect?

[kas23]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wouldn't consider Turcotte a top center prospect. 

And based on what people say on here, neither is Krebs. I’ve never seen either play. Are we talking about 2C prospects here?

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is more than fair and of a piece with holding KA accountable for the final results -- not just of a trade, but of everything -- which I totally agree with.

At the same time, the other scenario has to be considered:  the Sabres walk away with Theodore and Krebs in exchange for a diminished Eichel or an Eichel who looks great for 20 games but gets knocked out again when the ADR can't hold up the NHL grind.  If that happens KA is totally vindicated.

Probably a reasonably high likelihood of something in between, too: ROR trade revealing itself to be more of an anomaly. Eichel goes on to pretty good things in Vegas and the guys we get back go on to pretty good things here. Or even vice versa. If I come away from the deal thinking there's a good chance things end up at least reasonably close, all things considered? I'm totally good with that. (in the moment - deal needs to be judged on results)

Then again, I'm sure I was good with the ROR return at the time, too

5 minutes ago, kas23 said:

And based on what people say on here, neither is Krebs. I’ve never seen either play. Are we talking about 2C prospects here?

Keep your expectations reasonable for Krebs. Just go with say, an even better Danny Briere 

that's what @spndnchz guaranteed for Krebs, from how I remember it

Edited October 29, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wouldn't consider Turcotte a top center prospect. 

IMO, guys like Zegras and Byfield would be top center prospects, elite prospects, A prospects.  Whatever term you want to use.

Guys like Krebs and Turcotte would be a step below.

[Brawndo]

 

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Man, I would love for this to be over soon.

[Flashsabre]

I just think that Adams being at the Michigan game was in part to have eyes on Brisson.

Tuch, Theodore, Brisson, conditional pick is my guess based on nothing.😀