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How well did teams do with drafting in the 2nd Round?


Zamboni

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It's been awhile since i created the 3rd thru 7th round threads.

Who’s had NHL time? So i took a 10 year sample. From 2009 - 2018. In my opinion it’s too soon to judge anyone drafted in the 2rd round in 2019 or more recently to determine if a team drafted well in the 2nd. If you disagree, then post the more recent years if you want. I added the Buffalo picks (if there are any) just to see the names. This is the round (along with the 1st) where teams really turn from a “hope” mentality, to expect their pick to make their NHL team at some point and do rather well.

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2009 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 NY Islanders Mikko Koskinen G Blues 117 0 4 4 2 2020-21

32 Detroit Landon Ferraro C Red Deer Rebels 77 7 5 12 29 2017-18

33 Colorado Ryan O'Reilly C 842 208 386 594 122 2020-21

34 Atlanta Carl Klingberg L 12 1 0 1 4 2014-15

35 Los Angeles Kyle Clifford L 712 64 73 137 865 2020-21

36 Phoenix Chris Brown C 23 2 1 3 21 2015-16

37 Anaheim Mat Clark D 9 0 1 1 6 2014-15

38 Dallas Alex Chiasson R 548 98 98 196 315 2020-21

39 Ottawa Jakob Silfverberg R 597 145 160 305 176 2020-21

40 Edmonton Anton Lander C 215 10 25 35 56 2016-17

44 Florida Drew Shore C 95 9 17 26 30 2020-21

45 Atlanta Jeremy Morin L 82 10 12 22 69 2014-15

46 Ottawa Robin Lehner G 311 0 4 4 26 2020-21

49 Colorado Stefan Elliott D 87 8 17 25 16 2018-19

51 Carolina Brian Dumoulin D 370 11 76 87 100 2020-21

52 Tampa Bay Richard Panik R 505 87 103 190 272 2020-21

53 Vancouver Anton Rodin R 3 0 1 1 0 2016-17

54 New Jersey Eric Gelinas D 189 14 41 55 92 2016-17

55 Washington Dmitri Orlov D 549 42 148 190 217 2020-21

58 Toronto Jesse Blacker D 1 0 0 0 0 2014-15

59 Chicago Brandon Pirri C 276 72 49 121 91 2020-21

60 Detroit Tomas Tatar L 609 174 197 371 222 2020-21

61 Pittsburgh Philip Samuelsson D 13 0 0 0 2 2015-16

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2010 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Edmonton Tyler Pitlick C 281 47 37 84 76 2020-21

33 Florida John Mcfarland R 3 0 0 0 0 2015-16

34 Columbus Dalton Smith L 1 0 0 0 2 2019-20

36 Florida Alexander Petrovic D 263 5 45 50 360 2018-19

37 Carolina Justin Faulk D 666 95 192 287 316 2020-21

38 New Jersey Jon Merrill D 390 12 53 65 207 2020-21

39 Minnesota Brett Bulmer R 17 0 3 3 15 2015-16

40 NY Rangers Christian Thomas L 27 1 2 3 9 2015-16

41 Dallas Patrik Nemeth D 353 7 49 56 176 2020-21

42 Anaheim Devante Smith-Pelly R 395 44 57 101 137 2018-19

45 Boston Ryan Spooner C 325 48 119 167 63 2018-19

46 Edmonton Martin Marincin D 227 5 29 34 110 2019-20

47 Los Angeles Tyler Toffoli R 557 164 165 329 160 2020-21

48 Edmonton Curtis Hamilton L 1 0 0 0 5 2014-15

49 Colorado Calvin Pickard G 112 0 3 3 4 2020-21

50 Florida Connor Brickley L 81 6 15 21 42 2018-19

51 Detroit Calle Jarnkrok C 492 92 110 202 113 2020-21

53 Carolina Mark Alt D 20 0 0 0 4 2020-21

54 Chicago Justin Holl D 120 6 29 35 64 2020-21

55 Columbus Petr Straka R 3 0 2 2 0 2014-15

56 Minnesota Johan Larsson L 430 43 63 106 212 2020-21

57 Phoenix Oscar Lindberg L 252 39 40 79 117 2018-19

58 Chicago Kent Simpson G 1 0 0 0 0 2013-14

59 Minnesota Jason Zucker L 491 143 120 263 181 2020-21

60 Chicago Stephen Johns D 167 15 18 33 93 2019-20

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2011 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Edmonton David Musil D 4 0 2 2 2 2014-15

32 St. Louis Ty Rattie R 99 13 17 30 12 2018-19

33 Florida Rocco Grimaldi C U.S. 187 28 35 63 32 2020-21

34 NY Islanders Scott Mayfield D 267 16 50 66 249 2020-21

35 Detroit Tomas Jurco L 214 22 30 52 64 2020-21

36 Chicago Adam Clendening D 90 4 20 24 49 2018-19

37 Columbus Boone Jenner C 529 121 119 240 307 2020-21

38 Nashville Magnus Hellberg G 4 0 0 0 0 2016-17

39 Anaheim John Gibson G 312 0 3 3 32 2020-21

40 Boston Alexander Khokhlachev C 9 0 0 0 2 2015-16

41 St. Louis Dmitrij Jaskin R 303 27 42 69 88 2018-19

42 Carolina Victor Rask C 440 77 114 191 82 2020-21

43 Chicago Brandon Saad L 625 181 187 368 118 2020-21

44 Dallas Brett Ritchie R 284 36 27 63 190 2020-21

45 Calgary Markus Granlund C 335 58 43 101 86 2019-20

46 St. Louis Joel Edmundson D 372 22 60 82 335 2020-21

47 San Jose Matthew Nieto L 500 67 91 158 86 2020-21

48 Detroit Xavier Ouellet D 175 5 23 28 82 2020-21

49 Los Angeles Christopher Gibson G 15 0 0 0 0 2020-21

50 NY Islanders Johan Sundstrom C 11 0 1 1 6 2013-14

52 Nashville Miikka Salomaki R 167 12 15 27 76 2019-20

53 Anaheim William Karlsson C 447 110 147 257 62 2020-21

54 Pittsburgh Scott Harrington D 197 7 30 37 69 2020-21

55 Detroit Ryan Sproul D 44 2 10 12 12 2017-18

56 Phoenix Lucas Lessio L 41 3 4 7 12 2015-16

57 Calgary Tyler Wotherspoon D 30 0 5 5 4 2016-17

58 Tampa Bay Nikita Kucherov R 515 221 326 547 261 2019-20

61 Ottawa Shane Prince L 128 12 26 38 39 2017-18

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2012 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Columbus Oscar Dansk G Brynas 6 0 0 0 0 2020-21

36 Anaheim Nicolas Kerdiles L 3 0 0 0 0 2017-18

37 Nashville Pontus Aberg L 132 17 27 44 34 2019-20

38 Carolina Phil Di Giuseppe L 196 16 37 53 66 2020-21

42 Calgary Patrick Sieloff D 2 2 0 2 2 2017-18

44 Buffalo Jake McCabe D 353 18 59 77 203 2020-21

45 Philadelphia Anthony Stolarz G 29 0 1 1 0 2020-21

47 Carolina Brock McGinn L 345 51 55 106 81 2020-21

49 Detroit Martin Frk R 118 18 21 39 22 2020-21

50 Nashville Colton Sissons C 361 52 47 99 127 2020-21

52 Pittsburgh Teddy Blueger C 125 19 28 47 44 2020-21

55 San Jose Chris Tierney C 475 66 137 203 92 2020-21

58 Phoenix Jordan Martinook L 408 45 68 113 181 2020-21

59 NY Rangers Cristoval "Boo" Nieves C 76 5 14 19 24 2019-20

60 New Jersey Damon Severson D 466 39 136 175 282 2020-21

61 Dallas Devin Shore C 313 42 71 113 55 2020-21

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2013 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Florida Ian McCoshen D 60 4 3 7 33 2018-19

32 Colorado Chris Bigras D 46 1 3 4 18 2017-18

33 Tampa Bay Adam Erne L 202 23 22 45 109 2020-21

34 Montreal Jacob De La Rose C 242 13 25 38 84 2020-21

35 Buffalo JT Compher C 253 48 53 101 88 2020-21

37 Los Angeles Valentin Zykov L 55 7 10 17 10 2019-20

38 Buffalo Connor Hurley C

39 Phoenix Laurent Dauphin C 35 3 1 4 18 2018-19

40 Dallas Remi Elie L 106 7 15 22 28 2018-19

41 Philadelphia Robert Hagg D 223 12 32 44 135 2020-21

42 New Jersey Steven Santini D 116 5 16 21 55 2019-20

43 Winnipeg Nicolas Petan C 136 6 22 28 38 2020-21

44 Pittsburgh Tristan Jarry G 87 0 5 5 8 2020-21

45 Anaheim Nick Sorensen R 5 0 1 1 2 2016-17

46 Minnesota Gustav Olofsson D 59 0 11 11 18 2019-20

50 Columbus Dillon Heatherington D 11 0 2 2 26 2018-19

51 Chicago Carl Dahlstrom D 64 0 10 10 12 2019-20

52 Buffalo Justin Bailey R 68 5 4 9 12 2020-21

53 Washington Madison Bowey D 156 5 35 40 104 2020-21

55 Montreal Artturi Lehkonen L 317 57 57 114 88 2020-21

57 St. Louis William Carrier L 236 24 23 47 116 2020-21

58 Detroit Tyler Bertuzzi L 208 54 72 126 119 2020-21

59 Winnipeg Eric Comrie G 9 0 0 0 0 2020-21

61 Washington Zach Sanford L 193 36 35 71 82 2020-21

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2014 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Buffalo Brendan Lemieux L 162 21 22 43 299 2020-21

32 Florida Jayce Hawryluk C 80 11 13 24 34 2020-21

33 St. Louis Ivan Barbashev C 252 39 44 83 50 2020-21

36 Vancouver Thatcher Demko G 62 0 1 1 0 2020-21

37 Carolina Alex Nedeljkovic G 20 0 0 0 4 2020-21

38 Anaheim Marcus Pettersson D 204 6 49 55 121 2020-21

39 Washington Vitek Vanecek G 26 0 0 0 0 2020-21

40 Ottawa Andreas Englund D 33 0 3 3 24 2019-20

41 New Jersey Joshua Jacobs D 3 0 0 0 2 2019-20

42 Nashville Vladislav Kamenev C 66 3 10 13 20 2019-20

43 Arizona Ryan MacInnis C 16 0 1 1 0 2020-21

44 Buffalo Eric Cornel R

48 Philadelphia Nicolas Aube-Kubel R 80 9 14 23 53 2020-21

49 Buffalo Vaclav Karabacek R

50 Los Angeles Roland McKeown D 10 0 3 3 19 2017-18

52 St. Louis Maxim Letunov F 3 1 0 1 0 2019-20

55 Anaheim Brandon Montour D 278 28 75 103 162 2020-21

56 Boston Ryan Donato C 167 35 40 75 30 2020-21

58 Arizona Christian Dvorak C 285 62 75 137 70 2020-21

59 NY Rangers Brandon Halverson G 1 0 0 0 0 2017-18

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2015 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

32 Arizona Christian Fischer R 248 35 30 65 59 2020-21

33 Tampa Bay Mitchell Stephens C 42 3 4 7 10 2020-21

34 Toronto Travis Dermott D 192 11 34 45 84 2020-21

35 Carolina Sebastian Aho C 347 136 160 296 116 2020-21

37 Boston Brandon Carlo D 320 14 40 54 194 2020-21

39 Colorado A.J. Greer L 37 1 5 6 47 2018-19

40 Colorado Nicolas Meloche D 5 0 1 1 0 2020-21

42 New Jersey Mackenzie Blackwood G 92 0 1 1 0 2020-21

43 Los Angeles Erik Cernak D 154 11 27 38 140 2020-21

45 Boston Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson C 29 3 6 9 2 2018-19

46 Pittsburgh Daniel Sprong R 124 26 16 42 14 2020-21

47 Winnipeg Jansen Harkins C 41 2 5 7 9 2020-21

48 Ottawa Filip Chlapik C 57 5 6 11 18 2020-21

49 Dallas Roope Hintz L 143 39 40 79 44 2020-21

50 Minnesota Jordan Greenway L 191 25 51 76 123 2020-21

51 Buffalo Brendan Guhle D 59 4 10 14 24 2019-20

52 Boston Jeremy Lauzon D 56 2 4 6 60 2020-21

53 Calgary Rasmus Andersson D 200 10 47 57 110 2020-21

55 Nashville Yakov Trenin C 49 4 8 12 19 2020-21

56 St. Louis Vince Dunn D 260 31 63 94 104 2020-21

57 Washington Jonas Siegenthaler D 97 2 11 13 55 2020-21

58 Columbus Kevin Stenlund C 62 11 9 20 18 2020-21

60 Calgary Oliver Kylington D 93 5 11 16 26 2020-21

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2016 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

31 Toronto Egor Korshkov L 1 1 0 1 0 2019-20

32 Edmonton Tyler Benson L 7 0 1 1 0 2019-20

33 Buffalo Rasmus Asplund C 38 4 2 6 6 2020-21

34 Columbus Andrew Peeke D 28 1 4 5 4 2020-21

35 St. Louis Jordan Kyrou C 82 15 21 36 24 2020-21

37 Tampa Bay Libor Hajek D 60 2 6 8 26 2020-21

39 Chicago Alex DeBrincat L 269 106 103 209 44 2020-21

41 New Jersey Nathan Bastian R 34 5 4 9 23 2020-21

43 Carolina Janne Kuokkanen L 43 5 11 16 18 2020-21

46 Detroit Givani Smith R 33 3 4 7 30 2020-21

47 Nashville Samuel Girard D 261 17 97 114 43 2020-21

48 Philadelphia Carter Hart G 97 0 0 0 2 2020-21

49 Boston Ryan Lindgren D 102 1 25 26 82 2020-21

51 Los Angeles Kale Clague D 17 0 4 4 6 2020-21

53 Detroit Filip Hronek D 151 16 60 76 88 2020-21

55 Pittsburgh Filip Gustavsson G 4 0 0 0 0 2020-21

56 Calgary Dillon Dube C 105 14 23 37 22 2020-21

57 Toronto Carl Grundstrom R 61 9 8 17 26 2020-21

60 San Jose Dylan Gambrell C 94 8 12 20 25 2020-21

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2017 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

32 Colorado Conor Timmins D 19 0 0 0 6 2020-21

34 Vegas Nicolas Hague D 71 6 19 25 52 2020-21

36 New Jersey Jesper Boqvist C 45 4 2 6 10 2020-21

37 Buffalo Marcus Davidsson C

38 Detroit Gustav Lindstrom D 16 0 1 1 14 2019-20

39 Dallas Jason Robertson L 34 8 17 25 8 2020-21

40 Florida Aleksi Heponiemi C 3 1 0 1 2 2020-21

41 Los Angeles Jaret Anderson-Dolan C 25 4 5 9 6 2020-21

42 Carolina Eetu Luostarinen C 46 3 6 9 12 2020-21

45 Columbus Alexandre Texier C 74 11 15 26 24 2020-21

47 Ottawa Alex Formenton L 15 3 0 3 6 2020-21

48 Tampa Bay Alexander Volkov R 30 4 3 7 10 2020-21

49 San Jose Mario Ferraro D 98 3 21 24 42 2020-21

50 Anaheim Maxime Comtois L 77 17 23 40 51 2020-21

53 Boston Jack Studnicka C 21 1 3 4 2 2020-21

54 Buffalo Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G

57 Chicago Ian Mitchell D 32 2 2 4 10 2020-21

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2018 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

 

32 Buffalo Mattias Samuelsson D

38 Montreal Alexander Romanov D 34 1 4 5 12 2020-21

46 Washington Martin Fehervary D 6 0 1 1 6 2019-20

53 Pittsburgh Calen Addison D 3 0 0 0 0 2020-21

60 Winnipeg David Gustafsson C 26 1 0 1 0 2020-21

 

 

Not surprised to see so many poor picks by all teams throughout this ten year period.... And a handful of gems that developed well too!

Edited by Zamboni
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Thanks @Zamboni for once again making this list. It's a good parallel to the other ongoing threads on Sabres' draft futility.

Here's what I expect in the 2nd round: 50% NHL hit rate -- you get a player! At least for a few seasons you get a guy. There are very few stars on this list, so I can't say we should have our ROR, Kucherov, or Aho. But this is how you fill out a roster.

And... we did not. No picks early on was GMRegier was trading 2nds for rentals in our charges to 8th of 9th. Then McCabe, who is probably the second-best pick in his draft after Severson. Win there. But then we're in the midst of the tank and have a surplus of 2nds and we get nothing. Maybe the best all-around pick in JT Compher (who is now underperforming in Colorado) who we traded, and the rest: garbage. The trouble is you look at those 2013-2014 drafts where we have 6 seconds, and there's not much there. Aube-Kuble, Montour, Dvorak all would have been nice instead of the Karabacek.

But that was supposed to be the stockpile! We were suffering, tanking, and those 6 seconds should've been a young core of a lineup. Nothing for it (and yes, we got ROR out of it, but gave up a ton for him).

What really amazes me is by drafting so poorly -- look at all the 2nd rounders we ended up having to acquire via trade. We've had 'em all! Larsson, Montour, Elie, Carrier, Lehner. And signed later: Dalton Smith.

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14 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Thanks @Zamboni for once again making this list. It's a good parallel to the other ongoing threads on Sabres' draft futility.Here's what I expect in the 2nd round: 50% NHL hit rate -- you get a player!

Statistically its more like 25% in the 2nd round.  50% is mid to late 1st round success.  We should be hitting 1 out of every 4.

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13 minutes ago, Weave said:

Statistically its more like 25% in the 2nd round.  50% is mid to late 1st round success.  We should be hitting 1 out of every 4.

I think this is lost on a good portion of fans. The “hit” rate isn’t all that high. Hovering around 25%. That’s it. For 2nd rounders.

now one can argue and bicker and differ about what “hit rate” means....

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3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Thanks @Zamboni for once again making this list. It's a good parallel to the other ongoing threads on Sabres' draft futility.

Here's what I expect in the 2nd round: 50% NHL hit rate -- you get a player! At least for a few seasons you get a guy. There are very few stars on this list, so I can't say we should have our ROR, Kucherov, or Aho. But this is how you fill out a roster.

And... we did not. No picks early on was GMRegier was trading 2nds for rentals in our charges to 8th of 9th. Then McCabe, who is probably the second-best pick in his draft after Severson. Win there. But then we're in the midst of the tank and have a surplus of 2nds and we get nothing. Maybe the best all-around pick in JT Compher (who is now underperforming in Colorado) who we traded, and the rest: garbage. The trouble is you look at those 2013-2014 drafts where we have 6 seconds, and there's not much there. Aube-Kuble, Montour, Dvorak all would have been nice instead of the Karabacek.

But that was supposed to be the stockpile! We were suffering, tanking, and those 6 seconds should've been a young core of a lineup. Nothing for it (and yes, we got ROR out of it, but gave up a ton for him).

What really amazes me is by drafting so poorly -- look at all the 2nd rounders we ended up having to acquire via trade. We've had 'em all! Larsson, Montour, Elie, Carrier, Lehner. And signed later: Dalton Smith.

We gave up "a ton" for Ryan O'Reilly???

Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher and a 2nd round pick...I'd do that trade every single time and not think twice about it.

The only player they have left from that trade is Compher, who is a bottom-6 player.

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Just now, Sabre fan said:

agree hardly think we gave up a ton for ROR...fact is that was probably the team's best trade ever (right up there with Briere steal). Of course we can also say that the ROR trade to St Lou was probably the team's worse ever trade...

That ROR trade to St. Louis is still devastating to me...it makes me so mad to think about it.

He's a player I wanted long before we ever got him. He's the first Sabres jersey I bought since my Hasek jersey in 1999. I hate Jason Botterill.

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43 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

We gave up "a ton" for Ryan O'Reilly???

Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher and a 2nd round pick...I'd do that trade every single time and not think twice about it.

The only player they have left from that trade is Compher, who is a bottom-6 player.

This is kinda funny (and sad)

  • Our current return for ROR is 3rd pair D Colin Miller and unproven youngsters Tage Thompson and Ryan Johnson
  • The Avs current return for ROR is 3rd liner JT Compher and pending UFAs Kyle Burroughs and Brandon Saad

I think we actually may have done better than the Avs did.

Edited by dudacek
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26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is kinda funny (and sad)

  • Our current return for ROR is 3rd pair D Colin Miller and unproven youngsters Tage Thompson and Ryan Johnson
  • The Avs current return for ROR is 3rd liner JT Compher and pending UFAs Kyle Burroughs and Brandon Saad

I think we actually may have done better than the Avs did.

Apple and oranges trades.  We gave StL prime years on a great AAV contract.  Colorado gave up the last year before UFA, so slightly more than a deadline-like deal.  A proven Dman+ two prospects, and #31 overall is a fair haul for what is typically a rental.  And while what we gave up in hindsight is nothing, the simple fact we accelerated the rebuild and lost our chance at Matthew’s is the far bigger crime of TM. Imagine one more year of suffering, getting Matthew’s and then offering ROR an even bigger deal on July 1st.  

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1 hour ago, OhMyDahlin said:

We gave up "a ton" for Ryan O'Reilly???

Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher and a 2nd round pick...I'd do that trade every single time and not think twice about it.

The only player they have left from that trade is Compher, who is a bottom-6 player.

I mean zadorov played 5 seasons there. He was only a bottom pair defenseman basically who played some PK, but a bottom pair defenseman who keeps the puck out of the net isn't as easy to find as we thought.   

I still think it was a good trade for Buffalo though for sure.

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6 hours ago, Weave said:

Statistically its more like 25% in the 2nd round.  50% is mid to late 1st round success.  We should be hitting 1 out of every 4.

It must be noted my expectations and reality are rarely in agreement.

3 hours ago, OhMyDahlin said:

We gave up "a ton" for Ryan O'Reilly???

Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher and a 2nd round pick...I'd do that trade every single time and not think twice about it.

The only player they have left from that trade is Compher, who is a bottom-6 player.

I still make that trade, too. It was a good trade. We also got McGinn for 2/3 of a season. But it was a big investment of expected NHL-caliber talent to do it in a farm system that had been obliterated as well as part of the tank. The tank forced us to rush Girgs, Grigs, Risto, and Zadorov to the NHL rather than seasoning them all in Rochester, probably doing at least some damage to all of them (most notably Grigs). So then when we needed young guys to step into the lineup on ELCs...they were already in Buffalo or in Colorado. Or Ottawa, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, wherever else GMTM shipped all those picks.

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4 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Apple and oranges trades.  We gave StL prime years on a great AAV contract.  Colorado gave up the last year before UFA, so slightly more than a deadline-like deal.  A proven Dman+ two prospects, and #31 overall is a fair haul for what is typically a rental.  And while what we gave up in hindsight is nothing, the simple fact we accelerated the rebuild and lost our chance at Matthew’s is the far bigger crime of TM. Imagine one more year of suffering, getting Matthew’s and then offering ROR an even bigger deal on July 1st.  

I have literally never considered your last two sentences because I never imagined we would be here 6 years later, but I now think we never should have made the trade to begin with. 

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