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Taylor Hall sitting -- possible trade incoming


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23 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t really get it, but yeah kind of?

Maybe I’m alone in this opinion. And thats fine by me ... but I think Ryan Miller while he was a Sabre, was mostly an above average goalie, with one elite year. And it reminds me of how I view Hall now. That’s all.

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3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

On TSN’s Insider Trading LeBrun said the Isles might circle back to Hall, Dreger mentioned more teams in on Him Now and that GMs can talk extension with Ferris, Servalli as of now the Leafs are not in on Him but that could change at anytime. 
 

From the Athletic Pierre LeBrun

Could the Devils be the only team to net a first-round pick at this deadline? Or at least one that’s not conditional. I could be wrong, and yes the Buffalo Sabres hope to net a first-rounder for Taylor Hall, and if the Columbus Blue Jackets decide to move Foligno, maybe they do as well.

But are we sure?

The sellers outnumber the buyers right now as far as I can tell. I’ve got this weird feeling that prices may crater come Monday and some decent players may be available for cheaper prices.

I strongly believe if Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald had waited until Monday on Palmieri, the return drops to a second-round pick. He was wise to act now. I don’t think the deal gets any better. And remember that Palmieri had a partial no-trade which limits the market to some degree.

While teams like Boston and Toronto had shown interest in Palmieri, I’m not convinced a first-round pick was attainable from either of those teams.

What will fascinate me now is the fallout for Buffalo on Hall. In losing the Islanders as a potential trade partner (I mean, we assume Lamoriello is out on Hall now, right?), the Sabres likely missed out on the one buyer that had ample cap room to take on Hall’s $8 million AAV or at least half. Now, whatever teams try to step up on Hall either need a third party broker or have to send Buffalo a contract or two to make it all work. All the other buyers on the market now are close to the cap.

One team executive I spoke with Thursday said if Hall was still sitting there Monday he could see a team get him for a second- or third-round pick plus send Buffalo a contract to make it work. No question the Sabres want to do better than that. But remember that Hall has a full no-move, he gets to say yes or no to any deal.

This stuff fascinates me.

it is pretty clear that Dreger is being fed info by Darren Ferris in order to get some of Hall's preferred destinations to step up.

It is also clear that Lebrun is being fed info by a leading Hall chaser, trying to pressure Adams into taking what's on the table now.

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3 hours ago, Curt said:

Not that I disagree with most of your points, but every single one of the numbers you wrote are wrong.

Hall scored 16 goals in 65 games last season.  Over the past 3 seasons, Hall has produced at a rate of 17.2 goals and 65.6 points per 82 games.  He has been a minus player in 9 out of 11 seasons.  He will be on his 4th team in 2 years.

 

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

When I was calculating his stats, the page I was using broke last season up into different totals for each team..hence me thinking the last 2 seasons equal 3 seasons. However as you said, the numbers are slightly different but they still tell the same picture, his production has gone down quite a bit each season since his mvp season and his major surgery.

Interesting.  MJD's points are good, but there has to be some penalty for getting every number wrong in a post.  Or maybe a reward!

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I still like Hall to Toronto for Kerfoot, Liljigren and 2 2nd rd picks and the Sabres eat 50% of Hall's deal.  Kerfoot has 2 more years @ 3.5 plays C or LW.  He has been a 40 pts player and is only 26, but isn't a fit in Tor.  LW for LW deal and we get a solid player back.

Sabres received a conditional 1st (activated when Kane re-signed with the Sharks) an AHLers and a 4th for Evander Kane.  Will the Sabres receive even less for Hall?

 

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6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I still like Hall to Toronto for Kerfoot, Liljigren and 2 2nd rd picks and the Sabres eat 50% of Hall's deal.  Kerfoot has 2 more years @ 3.5 plays C or LW.  He has been a 40 pts player and is only 26, but isn't a fit in Tor.  LW for LW deal and we get a solid player back.

Sabres received a conditional 1st (activated when Kane re-signed with the Sharks) an AHLers and a 4th for Evander Kane.  Will the Sabres receive even less for Hall?

 

Why is Kerfoot not a fit?  

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14 minutes ago, inkman said:

Why is Kerfoot not a fit?  

Because I think Toronto is more stacked on forwards than any team, limited ice time I suppose.

But he hasn't been producing like he has in Colorado, its a bit of a risk taking his contract on.   We would do Toronto a favour taking on that contract, so I'd say no.

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10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Because I think Toronto is more stacked on forwards than any team, limited ice time I suppose.

But he hasn't been producing like he has in Colorado, its a bit of a risk taking his contract on.   We would do Toronto a favour taking on that contract, so I'd say no.

He’s still averaging 14 minutes of ice time a game.  If he needs to be included for salary cap reasons, it would make sense but he’s still getting meaningful minutes for the loafs. 

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Just now, inkman said:

He’s still averaging 14 minutes of ice time a game.  If he needs to be included for salary cap reasons, it would make sense but he’s still getting meaningful minutes for the loafs. 

yeah then I want a first back with him 

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I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

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20 minutes ago, Kong said:

I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

I think I’m just gonna log off for the day 

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19 minutes ago, Kong said:

I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

It goes both ways - wait longer and someone might overpay out of desperation.  Wait too long and there isn't a trade partner.  

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48 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Kerfoot would also be a huge upgrade in terms of a Bottom Six Center over Cody Eakin 

Eakin screams buyout to me this offseason.  Him being terrible, plus decent cap savings in year 1.  The year 2 penalty is less than a million (and the cap should go up in 2022.  You also save like 800K in cash.

There is no reason he should be on the team next year imo.

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28 minutes ago, Kong said:

I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

Nonsense.

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32 minutes ago, Kong said:

I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

Classic Reaction GIF

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37 minutes ago, Kong said:

Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

This has become the new dog whistle of Sabrespace. As much as I dislike how Terry and Kim have run the Sabres, if Kim were a man you would never say this. 

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44 minutes ago, Kong said:

I think a trade should have already happened. The longer this goes on, the less confidence I have that Buffalo's going to get anything for this latest mercenary who has been playing his way off the roster and into a cheaper trade deal. I know the Islanders were part of the discussion but now they're not part of it anymore, I think that's good because they're a lot smarter than us and would surely snooker our rookie GM. Buffalo's front office is a mess. It consists of The Waitress, who has done nothing but fumble things, albeit with an iron fist. 

The bolded: Why?

The only real trade has been from a team that you didn’t want to trade with apparently, so why is your confidence dropping?

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I don't have confidence in Buffalo's management period. Is that so shocking? Maybe it's shocking that my confidence is dropping and I have no confidence in the first place. They're waiting for the light on Hall. He's had a bad year. His price is down already. I wonder what the offers are like. I don't even remember the last good trade with lasting results that was pulled off by the Sabres. Joki for Nylander? Maybe. But people are now talking about trading Joki. Before that...? It's just an endless game of hot potato with this team.

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There are to many factors to determine value at this point.   His performance this season is now a constant, but nothing else is.  How many teams are bidding (if any)?  Does he want to go to those teams?  What are we asking?  What are they offering? Is Hall their first choice or a backup if something else falls through? How much cap room do the other teams have?  Do they have a player/contract we are willing to take back to make the deal work?  How much cap are we willing to keep? etc.....

Right now my guess is at least 6 teams (Bos, Col, Fla, NYI, Tor, and Edm) have at least kicked the tires.  Most have little or no cap space.  The question then becomes how can they create cap space and or who will we take back to get done and or how much cap are we willing to eat.  After that is settled, what is the draft pick/prospect we are getting in return, especially if we are willing to give him away for nearly nothing cap wise.  The more cap we eat, the higher the compensation.  I figure Hall is willing to go to any legit contender and I think all 6 teams count.

So take my example:   Hall to Toronto for Kerfoot, Lilijren and 2 picks with the Sabres eating 50%.  In my deal Toronto gets Hall for essentially 500K.  The math - Hall's cap is $8 mill - 50% retention is 4 mill and Kerfoot's deal is 3.5.  By giving Hall away and taking on the extra 2 years of Kerfoot's deal we should be getting a minimum of two prime assets. Lilijgren (sp?) is a decent prospect at D and 2nds, while not a first, is at least 2 solid draft picks.     

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