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On 4/8/2021 at 1:49 PM, tom webster said:

The CHL thing is not so much of anti CHL as it is the different time line with European and College prospects. The thinking has been, since it’s all a crap shoot, why not give yourself the most time possible to evaluate the prospects. I’m quite sure that they would never bypass a CHL player strictly by this criteria but it is part of the equation 

And it's ***** stupid. 

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7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

And it's ***** stupid. 

Is it really? You, yourself, acknowledge what a crap shoot the draft becomes by mid second round, or even earlier. Isn’t it good asset management to pick guys whose control you have for an extra couple of years.

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2 hours ago, tom webster said:

Is it really? You, yourself, acknowledge what a crap shoot the draft becomes by mid second round, or even earlier. Isn’t it good asset management to pick guys whose control you have for an extra couple of years.

No. It's ***** stupid. You toss out the largest and probably best development league in the world because you suck at scouting so badly you won't be able to figure out in 2 years if a guy should get at least an AHL shot? It is so inherently flawed and dumb that I would like to vomit every time it is defended. Having a inferior player for an extra 2 years because you were afraid that the better guy might not pan it is insane. 

It's good asset management to draft players based on their tool/toolbox not what dev league they come out of. Further the college guys make it to 4 years they can bolt for anywhere. If your scouting department is worried that in 2 years they won't know enough about a guy, you need a new department. 

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43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No. It's ***** stupid. You toss out the largest and probably best development league in the world because you suck at scouting so badly you won't be able to figure out in 2 years if a guy should get at least an AHL shot? It is so inherently flawed and dumb that I would like to vomit every time it is defended. Having a inferior player for an extra 2 years because you were afraid that the better guy might not pan it is insane. 

It's good asset management to draft players based on their tool/toolbox not what dev league they come out of. Further the college guys make it to 4 years they can bolt for anywhere. If your scouting department is worried that in 2 years they won't know enough about a guy, you need a new department. 

Again, they don’t dismiss guys based on this criteria.

Also, they are not drafting guy’s because they think they might at least be good enough for the AHL. They are targeting guys with higher ceilings.

I get that they don’t draft players you like but they aren’t horrible at it either. They have some issues to solve, no doubt, but drafting isn’t in the top 3 things.

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If you aren’t using a league that every other team is using to draft prospects from then you are handcuffing your org. And putting yourself at a disadvantage. 

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37 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

If you aren’t using a league that every other team is using to draft prospects from then you are handcuffing your org. And putting yourself at a disadvantage. 

A) They do use the league. Their first round pick last year was from the CHL.

B) They are not the only team that considers this part of the equation.

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1 hour ago, tom webster said:

A) They do use the league. Their first round pick last year was from the CHL.

B) They are not the only team that considers this part of the equation.

They also sent some of their non-CHL players to the CHL to develop such as UPL.

The question is would guys like Olofsson made it to the NHL had he been a CHL player? My guess is that he wouldn't have gotten a contract after 2 years.  While I wouldn't not look at the CHL after the second round, I also wouldn't emphasize it either.  I read an article the other day discussing why so many Canadian kids are opting for NCAA hockey instead of the CHL.  The reasoning was is that these kids feel the NCAA is a better developmental league at this point.   

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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1 hour ago, tom webster said:

Again, they don’t dismiss guys based on this criteria.

Also, they are not drafting guy’s because they think they might at least be good enough for the AHL. They are targeting guys with higher ceilings.

I get that they don’t draft players you like but they aren’t horrible at it either. They have some issues to solve, no doubt, but drafting isn’t in the top 3 things.

They're pretty horrible at it

45 minutes ago, tom webster said:

A) They do use the league. Their first round pick last year was from the CHL.

B) They are not the only team that considers this part of the equation.

They've taking 2 chl players both top 10 in the last 4 years. 

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26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They also sent some of their non-CHL players to the CHL to develop such as UPL.

The question is would guys like Olofsson made it to the NHL had he been a CHL player? My guess is that he would have gotten a contract after 2 years.  While I wouldn't not look at the CHL after the second round, I also wouldn't emphasize it either.  I read an article the other day discussing why so many Canadian kids are opting for NCAA hockey instead of the CHL.  The reasoning was is that these kids feel the NCAA is a better developmental league at this point.   

Ncaa is great. Only a couple draft eligibles are play there in their draft year

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8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They're pretty horrible at it

They've taking 2 chl players both top 10 in the last 4 years. 

They are “horrible “ if you consider 90% of league horrible or worse. They have more then their share of players drafted by them in league presently and are top five in league in impactful players over expected impact players up to 2018.

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38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Ncaa is great. Only a couple draft eligibles are play there in their draft year

These kids are playing in the USHL or in the Canadian non-pro junior leagues like the BCHL before feeding into the NCAA so that they can retain their amateur status and play college hockey.  Cale Makar maybe the most noteworthy example.  He played in the AJHL before heading to UMass for 2 years.

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48 minutes ago, tom webster said:

They are “horrible “ if you consider 90% of league horrible or worse. They have more then their share of players drafted by them in league presently and are top five in league in impactful players over expected impact players up to 2018.

Well, they are also drafting at the top of each round every freaking year.  They should be well above average.  

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1 hour ago, tom webster said:

They are “horrible “ if you consider 90% of league horrible or worse. They have more then their share of players drafted by them in league presently and are top five in league in impactful players over expected impact players up to 2018.

What? 

Impact players... like? 

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

These kids are playing in the USHL or in the Canadian non-pro junior leagues like the BCHL before feeding into the NCAA so that they can retain their amateur status and play college hockey.  Cale Makar maybe the most noteworthy example.  He played in the AJHL before heading to UMass for 2 years.

So you're talking about a different league. Be precise then. 

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I'll expand. You're not talking about the ncaa, you're talking about the usdp, ushl, bchl, ajhl. 2 of those leagues are sketchy as hell. The other two have a good track record. 

 

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14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll expand. You're not talking about the ncaa, you're talking about the usdp, ushl, bchl, ajhl. 2 of those leagues are sketchy as hell. The other two have a good track record. 

 

What i’m talking about is Canadian kids increasingly avoiding the CHL so that they can go to college because they feel they’ll develop better there. 

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What i’m talking about is Canadian kids increasingly avoiding the CHL so that they can go to college because they feel they’ll develop better there. 

Getting a free education doesn't hurt either.  Go NCAA and fail to make the show and they've got something to fall back on.  Go, CHL & fail to make the show & they're looking for someone hiring unskilled labor.  (Look at Ned here, he's got a college education. ...  When the team folds, it's hello Chrysler plant.)

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14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Getting a free education doesn't hurt either.  Go NCAA and fail to make the show and they've got something to fall back on.  Go, CHL & fail to make the show & they're looking for someone hiring unskilled labor.  (Look at Ned here, he's got a college education. ...  When the team folds, it's hello Chrysler plant.)

Actually the CHL does put aside some college money for the kids.  Also they can go to Canadian University after the CHL and play.

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4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

What? 

Impact players... like? 

So you're talking about a different league. Be precise then. 

Interesting that 4 hours later there is still no response.  
 

Eichel was a no-brainer so even the Sabres couldn’t screw that one up.  I guess Reinhardt is a hit but in hindsight Draisital is a definite “impact player” they passed on.  Jury still out on Dahlin, although he has looked very good since they dumped Ralph.  Ullmark showing probably going to be a good starting goaltender.  Oloffson as a 7th rounder can score on the PP on one-timers.  
 

It’s also too easy to say, if they drafted impact players, why are they the worst team in the league.

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1 hour ago, gilbert11 said:

Interesting that 4 hours later there is still no response.  
 

Eichel was a no-brainer so even the Sabres couldn’t screw that one up.  I guess Reinhardt is a hit but in hindsight Draisital is a definite “impact player” they passed on.  Jury still out on Dahlin, although he has looked very good since they dumped Ralph.  Ullmark showing probably going to be a good starting goaltender.  Oloffson as a 7th rounder can score on the PP on one-timers.  
 

It’s also too easy to say, if they drafted impact players, why are they the worst team in the league.

Risto is an impact player.  McCabe is as well.  Ullmark obviously is as well. 

Where we come up short was finding stars after the 1st rd.  We also failed to get a volume of players to build a deep organization.  Honestly the TM drafting years set the rebuild back for years.  Jbot looks like he is going to get some volume and maybe a star in UPL.  

TB is so good because they found players everywhere. Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, Point and Cirelli were all drafted after the 1st (or even undrafted).   We haven’t been that lucky or that competent.  

IMHO you need 3 players a year on average to sustain a pipeline and you need to get lucky and get a surprise star or two.   Unfortunately we did neither in the last decade of DR’s tenure or in TMs tenure.  It also didn’t help how many assets TM wasted.

 

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8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Risto is an impact player.  McCabe is as well.  Ullmark obviously is as well. 

Where we come up short was finding stars after the 1st rd.  We also failed to get a volume of players to build a deep organization.  Honestly the TM drafting years set the rebuild back for years.  Jbot looks like he is going to get some volume and maybe a star in UPL.  

TB is so good because they found players everywhere. Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, Point and Cirelli were all drafted after the 1st (or even undrafted).   We haven’t been that lucky or that competent.  

IMHO you need 3 players a year on average to sustain a pipeline and you need to get lucky and get a surprise star or two.   Unfortunately we did neither in the last decade of DR’s tenure or in TMs tenure.  It also didn’t help how many assets TM wasted.

 

3 per year is statistically unrealistic and unsustainable.

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9 hours ago, tom webster said:

Again, they don’t dismiss guys based on this criteria.

Also, they are not drafting guy’s because they think they might at least be good enough for the AHL. They are targeting guys with higher ceilings.

I get that they don’t draft players you like but they aren’t horrible at it either. They have some issues to solve, no doubt, but drafting isn’t in the top 3 things.

While I respect your cogent and always civil contributions to this site, along with the occasional insider info, I disagree that drafting is not in the top three issues.   To be putrid for a decade or half of a decade and not reap the benefits of drafting where they have is a direct result of why they continue to be putrid.  The system is designed so that after awhile, say 5 years, you have accumulated enough human on ice capital to make the 50% barrier of making the playoffs. And here we are. Discussing how to use a top 5 pick again.

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16 hours ago, 3putt said:

While I respect your cogent and always civil contributions to this site, along with the occasional insider info, I disagree that drafting is not in the top three issues.   To be putrid for a decade or half of a decade and not reap the benefits of drafting where they have is a direct result of why they continue to be putrid.  The system is designed so that after awhile, say 5 years, you have accumulated enough human on ice capital to make the 50% barrier of making the playoffs. And here we are. Discussing how to use a top 5 pick again.

The only way drafting isn’t our biggest issue is if the bigger issue is development. 

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1 hour ago, #freejame said:

The only way drafting isn’t our biggest issue is if the bigger issue is development. 

IMO it’s about even. You can’t develop well in the environment the team created.

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19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Risto is an impact player.  McCabe is as well.  Ullmark obviously is as well. 

Where we come up short was finding stars after the 1st rd.  We also failed to get a volume of players to build a deep organization.  Honestly the TM drafting years set the rebuild back for years.  Jbot looks like he is going to get some volume and maybe a star in UPL.  

TB is so good because they found players everywhere. Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, Point and Cirelli were all drafted after the 1st (or even undrafted).   We haven’t been that lucky or that competent.  

IMHO you need 3 players a year on average to sustain a pipeline and you need to get lucky and get a surprise star or two.   Unfortunately we did neither in the last decade of DR’s tenure or in TMs tenure.  It also didn’t help how many assets TM wasted.

 

People keep spelling Portillo, UPL. It's weird. 

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Risto is an impact player.  McCabe is as well.  Ullmark obviously is as well. 

Where we come up short was finding stars after the 1st rd.  We also failed to get a volume of players to build a deep organization.  Honestly the TM drafting years set the rebuild back for years.  Jbot looks like he is going to get some volume and maybe a star in UPL.  

TB is so good because they found players everywhere. Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, Point and Cirelli were all drafted after the 1st (or even undrafted).   We haven’t been that lucky or that competent.  

IMHO you need 3 players a year on average to sustain a pipeline and you need to get lucky and get a surprise star or two.   Unfortunately we did neither in the last decade of DR’s tenure or in TMs tenure.  It also didn’t help how many assets TM wasted.

 

Botteril wasted assets too 

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