Fixing the Defense - Maybe not as easy as you think

[Andrew Amerk]

20 minutes ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

No middle ground, binary choice, Mitts is more valuable asset.

How much of Mitts and Borgen have you watched in person?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, TerryFolds said:

Could you imagine if we had some of the SabreSpace community members running this team? We'd probably end up with the worst record in the league and with a points earned percentage lower than that during the Tank Year. Or something.

Leaving players like Mitts, Risto, and Joki unprotected in the expansion draft would be poor management of roster resources. At least trade those guys beforehand. If we're not talking trades, then I'd protect Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Skinner, Mitts, Thompson, Asplund, Dahlin, Risto, Joki, and Ullmark. I like Borgen. I'm a big fan of what he brings to the roster. I would consider offering Seattle a draft pick or something to not take Borgen. But you don't protect 3rd line d-men with no offensive skills over young players with top-10 draft pick talent.

Why are we protecting Rasmus Asplund? 

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, TerryFolds said:

But you don't protect 3rd line d-men with no offensive skills over young players with top-10 draft pick talent.

Mitts is 22, Borgen is 23. They are both young and where they were drafted no longer matters. I'd keep Mitts if I can, I like his progress this year but Borgen is higher on my priorities list. 

[JohnRobertEichel]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why are we protecting Rasmus Asplund? 

Because I needed a 7th forward to protect in my 7F/3D/1G scenario with no prior trades.

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Mitts is 22, Borgen is 23. They are both young and where they were drafted no longer matters. I'd keep Mitts if I can, I like his progress this year but Borgen is higher on my priorities list. 

I mention draft pedigree because it illustrates talent and potential. Mitts is seen throughout the league as having more hockey talent than Borgen and having more potential at this point in their young hockey careers.

[Broken Ankles]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Mitts is 22, Borgen is 23. They are both young and where they were drafted no longer matters. I'd keep Mitts if I can, I like his progress this year but Borgen is higher on my priorities list. 

This. Sunken Cost principle.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

I’d expose both Miller and Risto. 

Risto has been a good trooper through all this, but based on his comments the losing has gotten to him and with one year left he deserves the chance to get out of this mess

If either one of them is selected that’s 3.875 or 5.4 Million in cap space.

 

Forwards 

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mitts, Oloffson, Lazar and Tage

 

Defense

Dahlin, Borgen and Jokiharju 

 

A dark horse pick for Seattle to take, especially with Their Analytics Department, would be Lawrence Pilut. 
(Yes he is eligible for the expansion draft as the Sabres still hold His Rights) 

I can see KA open to trading Risto, but there is no chance Risto is exposed before Joki or Borgen.  I’d actually prefer Borgen be protected before Joki.  I think some like the “concept of Joki” , instead of the guy who can’t win puck battles, or clear the front of the net, or exit the d-zone.  Replacement level in almost every game this season. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Carmel Corn said:

IMHO - we need to keep Borgen.  We need two more stay-at-home types, even if it means losing Joki (ideally trade bait).   We need big mean guys who can defend and keep the crease clear for our goalies.  JBOT built a defense corp consisting of too many like-minded players who are soft and too easy to play against.

I really hope Borgen gets 20 games in at the end of the season to demonstrate whether this is warranted. Because I really like the concept of Borgen

 

2 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

I totally disagree with letting a 20-21 year old, first round #8 pick, who appears to  be starting to find himself as an NHL player to keep a marginal  24 year old defensive defenseman. Glad some of you guys aren't making these decisions for my team, and with good reason.

 

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Mitts is 22, Borgen is 23. They are both young and where they were drafted no longer matters. I'd keep Mitts if I can, I like his progress this year but Borgen is higher on my priorities list. 

Will Borgen turns 25 this year and has played 8 NHL games. Casey Mittelstadt and is two full years younger.

27 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I can see KA open to trading Risto, but there is no chance Risto is exposed before Joki or Borgen.  I’d actually prefer Borgen be protected before Joki.  I think some like the “concept of Joki” , instead of the guy who can’t win puck battles, or clear the front of the net, or exit the d-zone.  Replacement level in almost every game this season. 

There is a potential opportunity cost to factor into leaving Risto exposed and that is the return he could garner as a trade deadline rental.

Edited March 24, 2021 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

57 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I can see KA open to trading Risto, but there is no chance Risto is exposed before Joki or Borgen.  I’d actually prefer Borgen be protected before Joki.  I think some like the “concept of Joki” , instead of the guy who can’t win puck battles, or clear the front of the net, or exit the d-zone.  Replacement level in almost every game this season. 

Both Dahlin and Jokiharju had good rookie seasons and regressed significantly under Krueger over two seasons.
I want to see what both of them can do under different coaching. 

Risto has one year left on his deal, his metrics are back to where they have been in previous seasons. He’s a good candidate to shake up the core and it’s extremely unlikely that he re-signs in Buffalo. 
 

The issue is he falls into the most favored Sabre Zone with the owner, so he gets protected for the wrong reasons. 
 

As far as him being a 2022 Trade Deadline Piece, if the Sabres are sellers at the deadline next year, the organization is well and truly *****. 

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Brawndo

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I’d expose both Miller and Risto. 

 

I'd expose Miller but I'd trade Risto here at the deadline if this was the plan. 

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

There is a potential opportunity cost to factor into leaving Risto exposed and that is the return he could garner as a trade deadline rental.

And the same could be said for Joki.  Who is more valued by the rest of the league come April?   A higher priced vet with one year to UFA or a cost controlled RFA?  If you are hell-bent on keeping Mitts and committed to 7/3 then trade the one with greater returns. Bias aside, I think the larger return is Risto. But know that if it’s Risto who is traded, you had better get size and experience elsewhere.  A top 4 of Dahlin/Borgen/Bryson/Joki is just a recipe for disaster.  

If JB is still enthralled with Joki, as a concept or a roster player, then see if you can work out a deal to have Seattle take him as a package.  The Sabres get something in return, and this allows you pry either Foote or Cernak from Tampa.   That’s a real ‘Sophie’s Choice’ of defensemen.   Not the off-off Broadway version we are watching at Studio Arena. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Both Dahlin and Jokiharju had good rookie seasons and regressed significantly under Krueger over two seasons.
I want to see what both of them can do under different coaching. 

Risto has one year left on his deal, his metrics are back to where they have been in previous seasons. He’s a good candidate to shake up the core and it’s extremely unlikely that he re-signs in Buffalo. 
 

The issue is he falls into the most favored Sabre Zone with the owner, so he gets protected for the wrong reasons. 
 

As far as him being a 2022 Trade Deadline Piece, if the Sabres are sellers at the deadline next year, the organization is well and truly *****. 

 

It is very hard to envision the Sabres not being a seller at the deadline with a defence of Borgen Bryson Dahlin Jokiharju Miller and even a good summer acquisition

If you left Miller and Risto exposed, which one would Seattle take? How about Miller and Borgen?

 

We have to go 7/3.

You go 4/4 you are essentially offering them their choice of Mitts or one of Risto/Borgen/Miller

You go 7/3 you are essentially offering them one of Risto/Borgen/Miller

For me the fall back has to be protecting Dahlin, Joki and Risto and hoping they take Miller over Borgen.

My preference is to convincing them to take a light sweetener to take Tokarski, or a better sweetener to take Eakin. Okposo is a pipe dream.

 

Meanwhile, we have room to pick up other teams protection issues at forward and goalie. We are protecting Girgensons, Lazar, and Thompson as things stand right now under a 7/3 and we literally have no one to protect in goal.

Edited March 24, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It is very hard to envision the Sabres not being a seller at the deadline with a defence of Borgen Bryson Dahlin Jokiharju Miller and even a good summer acquisition

If you left Miller and Risto exposed, which one would Seattle take? How about Miller and Borgen?

 

We have to go 7/3.

You go 4/4 you are essentially offering them their choice of Mitts or one of Risto/Borgen/Miller

You go 7/3 you are essentially offering them one of Risto/Borgen/Miller

For me the fall back has to be protecting Dahlin, Joki and Risto and hoping they take Miller over Borgen.

My preference is to convincing them to take a light sweetener to take Tokarski, or a better sweetener to take Eakin. Okposo is a pipe dream.

 

Meanwhile, we have room to pick up other teams protection issues at forward and goalie. We literally have no one to protect in goal right now.

Seriously, at forward we are protecting Eichel, Reinhart, VO, Skinner, Mitts and ..........? Fill in 2 of Asplund, Thompson, Girgensons or Lazar.  Not exactly great picks for Seattle with our exposed forwards.  With no goalie to protect, there is a real opportunity to acquire someone.

All that said, the purpose of my initial discussion on the expansion draft was to illustrate that as of now either Jokiharju or Borgen would need to be exposed.  To protect them both, we'd either have to make a deal to protect one like Jbot did with Carrier to protect Ullmark (wise move), or trade a forward and then go with 4/4 instead of 7/3, such as VO for a goaltender +, or trade Borgen or Jokiharju for an exempt D or Risto in a bigger deal.  Complicated.   

Honestly, I'm not exactly worried about exposing Borgen.  Nice player possibly, but a 3rd pairing guy so should be relatively easy to replace in Free Agency.  I'm certainly not exposing Risto or Mitts to protect Borgen.  What a waste of assets.  

Still the expansion hurdle is the first step in rebuilding the D group into a more balanced unit.  McCabe may need to be replaced and Dahlin needs are partner.  It's up to KA to find the modern version of Toni Lydman.  

 

 

[Marvin]

Honest question: If you are Seattle, why would you take an unprotected Ristolainen?

• He has only 1 year left.
• He could be permanently damaged in hockey attitude from his years in Buffalo.
• His handling by the organisation has done more harm than good for his hockey development.
• Your AGM is part of the reason he had some horrible teams in Buffalo.
• He has terrible career analytics.
• You have no idea if he will ever fully recover from COVID-19. 
• He's grossly overpaid for his performance.

As a Sabres fan, regardless of what I think of him, I protect Borgen over him and don't even think twice.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I really hope Borgen gets 20 games in at the end of the season to demonstrate whether this is warranted. Because I really like the concept of Borgen

 

 

Will Borgen turns 25 this year and has played 8 NHL games. Casey Mittelstadt and is two full years younger.

There is a potential opportunity cost to factor into leaving Risto exposed and that is the return he could garner as a trade deadline rental.

 

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Both Dahlin and Jokiharju had good rookie seasons and regressed significantly under Krueger over two seasons.
I want to see what both of them can do under different coaching. 

Risto has one year left on his deal, his metrics are back to where they have been in previous seasons. He’s a good candidate to shake up the core and it’s extremely unlikely that he re-signs in Buffalo. 
 

The issue is he falls into the most favored Sabre Zone with the owner, so he gets protected for the wrong reasons. 
 

As far as him being a 2022 Trade Deadline Piece, if the Sabres are sellers at the deadline next year, the organization is well and truly *****. 

 

This.

If what Risto would fetch at next year’s deadline factors in even one iota to the GM’s thinking I’d fire said GM on the spot. What a brutal mentality to enter into the season with. 

[bob_sauve28]

We also might draft a defenseman high in the next draft. 

[Drag0nDan]

14 hours ago, TerryFolds said:

Are we overvaluing Borgen and Samuelsson? Isn't Borgen projected as a 3rd line d-man? Will Samuelsson even make the NHL?

a 3rd pairing defenseman who can actually help prevent the puck from going in the net.  Plays a bit more physical than anyone else on the back end currently.  

He won't light up the stat sheet, and him and dahlin seem to have some chemistry.  

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I really hope Borgen gets 20 games in at the end of the season to demonstrate whether this is warranted. Because I really like the concept of Borgen

 

 

Will Borgen turns 25 this year and has played 8 NHL games. Casey Mittelstadt and is two full years younger.

There is a potential opportunity cost to factor into leaving Risto exposed and that is the return he could garner as a trade deadline rental.

And? Will Borgen should have been in Buffalo last year but our dipshit of a GM couldn't figure out how to trade 1 of the 14 RHD we had. 

Again if I have to pick between Borgen and Mitts, I pick Borgen. Solid defensively, has the attitude I want, is a known commodity, could realistically be Dahlin's shutdown partner. Mitts is a 3rd line lw that I can replace without much thought, sure he could mature into something better and yes I still want to keep him but I can't keep building this team on hopes and dreams. If you really want to keep Mitts, trade VO and protect Eichel, Sam, Jeff, and Mitts up front and then 4 defenders. 

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

We also might draft a defenseman high in the next draft. 

Brandt Clarke would be the only RHD we would target. I do really like him. Powers and Hughes would both add on to a deep left side. Or we could just draft Beniers or Eklund and start to rebuild are piss poor forward depth finally after... 15 years. 

[Randall Flagg]

I would expose Joki before Borgen.

I see good things when I watch Borgen

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

And? Will Borgen should have been in Buffalo last year but our dipshit of a GM couldn't figure out how to trade 1 of the 14 RHD we had.

The "and" was you had their ages wrong.

11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would expose Joki before Borgen.

I see good things when I watch Borgen

To be clear, I think the discussion of who to expose: Mitts, Borgen or Risto is a good one; I posted my preference, but I don't think any is an obvious choice.

The counterpoint on Borgen that we have to acknowledge is small sample size and a very real possibility that he has peaked as an NHL/AHL tweener. You don't have to go back very far to find posters who weren't willing to give up Jokiharju in a package for a 2C.

I really liked what I've seen from Will the times I watched him in Rochester. He wasn't good in his four games last year. He looked ready in his four games this year. And he really seems to add the element this team lacks the most.

I know there are some on this board who think Risto and Montour are crap, but if we are essentially walking away from three of our top four (McCabe) defenceman for nothing this summer, I hope we have a better replacement plan than Miller, Bryson and Borgen. It smells a lot like crossing your fingers and pencilling Mittelstadt and Johansson in at 2C.

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The "and" was you had their ages wrong.

To be clear, I think the discussion of who to expose: Mitts, Borgen or Risto is a good one; I posted my preference, but I don't think any is an obvious choice.

The counterpoint on Borgen that we have to acknowledge is small sample size and a very real possibility that he has peaked as an NHL/AHL tweener. You don't have to go back very far to find posters who weren't willing to give up Jokiharju in a package for a 2C.

I really liked what I've seen from Will the times I watched him in Rochester. He wasn't good in his four games last year. He looked ready in his four games this year. And he really seems to add the element this team lacks the most.

I know there are some on this board who think Risto and Montour are crap, but if we are essentially walking away from three of our top four (McCabe) defenceman for nothing this summer, I hope we have a better replacement plan than Miller, Bryson and Borgen. It smells a lot like crossing your fingers and pencilling Mittelstadt and Johansson in at 2C.

All reasonable. I don't think there is a completely rational argument to be made to expose either Joki or Risto over Borgen. 

I'm all instinct on this one. My instinct is that he'd be one that got away that we'd be absolutely kicking ourselves over.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The "and" was you had their ages wrong.

No I had Borgen's age wrong because I hit 23 instead of 24. 

My AND was about why does it matter? Are we suggesting that Mitts at 22 will suddenly be much better at 24? If so you can say that but again we don't know that, we only hope that based on him being a 1st round draft pick. 

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

This.

If what Risto would fetch at next year’s deadline factors in even one iota to the GM’s thinking I’d fire said GM on the spot. What a brutal mentality to enter into the season with. 

Believe it or not asset management is a thing.

It is Adams job to come out of the expansion draft with the best collection of assets possible, then parlay those assets into the best team possible.

If you can trade Risto right now for a 2nd-rounder or a back-up goalie, why give him away for nothing in the expansion draft? And if you can trade him for that now, you can probably protect him and trade him for that any time between now and the deadline (assuming he isn't re-signing).

Also, it is pretty hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Sabres have four defencemen better than Risto to start next year. If that's the case, it also makes an argument for protecting him.

You also have to process Borgen through the same window.

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, dudacek said:

Believe it or not asset management is a thing.

It is Adams job to come out of the expansion draft with the best collection of assets possible, then parlay those assets into the best team possible.

If you can trade Risto right now for a 2nd-rounder or a back-up goalie, why give him away for nothing in the expansion draft? And if you can trade him for that now, you can probably protect him and trade him for that any time between now and the deadline (assuming he isn't re-signing).

Also, it is pretty hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Sabres have four defencemen better than Risto to start next year. If that's the case, it also makes an argument for protecting him.

You also have to process Borgen through the same window.

This was brought up during the offseason regarding Kahun and possibly non-tendering montour.  The argument for montour was that so much was given up to acquire him.  The argument against was that... he isn't good and he's getting 4 million dollars.  We ended up paying him, and he's still not very good.  You can dump him at the deadline but you basically bought a mid-round pick in 2021 or 2022 for 4 million dollars.  Money/cap space is an asset too, and that was not a good use of it.  

Kahun was expected to get a decent sized arb. award, and they likely used some of that cash to sign hall.  It didn't work, but i don't think anyone can argue that hall isn't a better player than kahun.  

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No I had Borgen's age wrong because I hit 23 instead of 24. 

My AND was about why does it matter? Are we suggesting that Mitts at 22 will suddenly be much better at 24? If so you can say that but again we don't know that, we only hope that based on him being a 1st round draft pick. 

Why is it hopes and dreams to project Casey, but it's not to project Will?

Right now, Casey is a good minor league centre showing signs that he could be a useful 3rd line winger. Will is a good minor league defenceman showing signs that he could be a useful 3rd pairing defenceman.

Casey is younger and has a stronger pedigree. That's seems relevant to GA and not to you and that's fine.

I'm more interested in why you think Borgen is clearly worth more to the organization than Mittelstadt.