Fixing the Sabres Long-Term - Can it be done?

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Dahlin may need time.  Chara, Hedmund, Erik Karlsson all took 3-5 years to develop into Norris Trophy candidates.

Jack is very good, actually great.  He is NOT generational though, too many people expected him to be McDavid (or Lemieux or Lindros) version 1a.

The middle of the Roster has been mismanaged.  

Is that impossible to fix?  No. Will it be very hard to fix (or have patience to fix)?  Yes.

I didn't claim Jack was a generational talent. But he certainly is a perennial all-pro caliber of player. In my view Dahlin is a special talent. But with him just like the defensemen you listed it is going to take time to become a top tier talent. Why should anyone be surprised that there is a developmental process before he becomes more of a finished product?

If our major deficiency revolves around the middle of the lineup that is certainly more fixable than addressing the top of the roster. My assessment of this team is that although it is not a top tier team it is good enough to be a lower qualifying playoff team. If this team gets credible goaltending this team will be in the hunt. If not it will fall by the wayside. Right now the most determinative player for us is Ullmark.

As I stated before those advocating to dramatically dismantle this roster (including Jack and Dahlin) are way off the mark. 

[Rasmus_]

Of course it can be done.  I will say that they are playing more like a cohesive team, than I have personally seen in almost a decade.  Outside of the last team they finished at .500, they are looking like they are getting better.  Montour, actually is looking like our best defensemen.  That speaks volumes.  Year two of Kruger, looks immensely better than year one. 

[matter2003]

They need to upgrade their goaltending.  Average at best 5 on 5 and among the worst in the NHL at making saves on the PK, even when factoring in all other things using advanced metrics. Our high danger save percentage on the PK is terrible compared to pretty much every other team in the NHL.  Biggest reason why our PK sucks balls.

Edited January 25, 2021 by matter2003

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, Weave said:

I'm not talking about a backwards move.  That's why I said I want to see the deal first.  Return me a 1C, 1G, some scoring depth with playoff tested veteran grit and I'm gonna look real hard at it.

For fun, Eichel to LA for Kopitar, Quick and Alex Turcotte (5th overall pick in 2019) 

[North Buffalo]

Sabres need to find some physical guys who can play... they have speed and are still working things out but D looks too small except Risto and Miller.  Be nice to get Borgen some experience and Samuelson as well.  TT is big but still plays little... Mitts looked better... They have enough for two lines and a checking line, still need to find guys for third line... Cozens and Quinn need to become men.

Edited January 25, 2021 by North Buffalo

[mjd1001]

I feel like this is the 3rd or 4th time I'm responding to this thread with different things to say each time...

They might be closer than a lot of us think....

-right now I think a healthy Okposo doesn't turn the team round, but I think he helps more than most want to admit.

-Skinner.  That contract looks AWFUL now, maybe the worse in the league, but if you can get 25 goals out of him?

-Mitts and/or Cozens giving you 10-15 goals and 25-30 points. 

-Dahlin. He might be the key. Take steps forward every week, and get on track to being a Norris candidate sometime in the next couple years.

Is that a lot to ask? Maybe.  But If you get those things (which aren't all out of the question), then this becomes a very good team. 

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

I don't think MAF was that good in the first place let alone now. I'm not giving Vegas anything of value and I'm certainly not paying him 7m dollars.

Would you pay him $6M?  Lol.  That’s what his actual salary will be.

He is not great, and he is not worth his salary, but he is decent.  What if he is the difference between Buffalo making the playoffs or not making the playoffs?  What is that worth?

I think he would be almost free to acquire.

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

Would you pay him $6M?  Lol.  That’s what his actual salary will be.

He is not great, and he is not worth his salary, but he is decent.  What if he is the difference between Buffalo making the playoffs or not making the playoffs?  What is that worth?

I think he would be almost free to acquire.

As you so state when a player is almost free to acquire and it is still a challenge to unload him what does that tell you about his value? When the issue is whether he is better than Hutton (marginal so or not?) then that is a testament to the caliber of player he is at this very late stage in his career. When you frame the issue that he could be the difference then you are also framing it as he could also not be the difference in making the playoffs. My response is then why even bother pursuing this high cost player? There might not be backup options now but that doesn't mean that there will not be reasonable options later in the season. 

[Brawndo]

4 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Fun. I don't think that word means what you think it means.

I wouldn’t make that trade at all, Eichel is untouchable IMO, I am curious what type of package that Weave would be willing to move him for hence the phrase “For Fun” 

[freester]

13 hours ago, Brawndo said:

For fun, Eichel to LA for Kopitar, Quick and Alex Turcotte (5th overall pick in 2019) 

I’m assuming this was posted in an alcohol induced stupor in post Bills depression 

[Brawndo]

1 minute ago, freester said:

I’m assuming this was posted in an alcohol induced stupor in post Bills depression 

See the post above yours 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Brawndo

[Curt]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

As you so state when a player is almost free to acquire and it is still a challenge to unload him what does that tell you about his value? When the issue is whether he is better than Hutton (marginal so or not?) then that is a testament to the caliber of player he is at this very late stage in his career. When you frame the issue that he could be the difference then you are also framing it as he could also not be the difference in making the playoffs. My response is then why even bother pursuing this high cost player? There might not be backup options now but that doesn't mean that there will not be reasonable options later in the season. 

Like anything else, it all depends on the deal.  He certainly has no value on that contract, and there would need to be more to the deal for Buffalo to fit him under the cap.

Yes, because neither of us are clairvoyant, he may or may not be the difference for Buffalo.  However, in my eyes, he is without a doubt better than Hutton, and almost as good as Ullmark.  Roughly an average NHL goalie.

With regards to waiting for something better, it could work out or it could be a total disaster.  If Hutton blows 3-4 for Buffalo while they are waiting for a better deal, then it’s probably already too late.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@nfreeman

I'm not advocating a complete teardown of the franchise.  Instead I want an honest evaluation of what we have and what we don't and then going out and finding the right pieces.  

I don't think our coach know how to run a winning program and I'm not sure our GM does either.  However, that doesn't mean they can't fix obvious holes, like goaltending and 2C, and it also doesn't mean they can't succeed.  What they need is more winning leadership within the organization, like a Staal or MAF.  Someone needs to create a standard where losing is unacceptable like Drury did years ago.

We also need more talent especially through the middle 6 up front and better special (PK) coaching.  These are not insurmountable problems but they are significant.  When I look at our forward group and goaltending, I see 10 guys who are easily replaced.  To me that means we still aren't close to being a real contender.

[PerreaultForever]

18 hours ago, TheCerebral1 said:

Of course it can be done.  I will say that they are playing more like a cohesive team, than I have personally seen in almost a decade.  Outside of the last team they finished at .500, they are looking like they are getting better.  Montour, actually is looking like our best defensemen.  That speaks volumes.  Year two of Kruger, looks immensely better than year one. 

I've seen a few posts praising Montour and I just don't get it. What am I seeing differently because to me he is horrible and the Dahlin/Montour pairing is our worst. Risto is clearly our best D man this year and McCabe is a close second. The other two are average. Montour is a horrible role model for Dahlin and that pairing makes absolutely no sense to me. 

As for the team looking better, well it has to, we added an allstar FA to the top line but a lot of the same problems are there and we are soft as butter. 

[Brawndo]

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Like anything else, it all depends on the deal.  He certainly has no value on that contract, and there would need to be more to the deal for Buffalo to fit him under the cap.

Yes, because neither of us are clairvoyant, he may or may not be the difference for Buffalo.  However, in my eyes, he is without a doubt better than Hutton, and almost as good as Ullmark.  Roughly an average NHL goalie.

With regards to waiting for something better, it could work out or it could be a total disaster.  If Hutton blows 3-4 for Buffalo while they are waiting for a better deal, then it’s probably already too late.

What separates me apart from the overwhelming majority of posters (including you) is that I don't see Hutton as much of a disaster as it is being portrayed. He is an average backup. I'm comfortable with that ranking because most teams are in the same situation with their backups. I am not arguing to maintain the status quo. If you can upgrade the position, in fact any position, then do so. But as you well know the cap system makes it more complicated and challenging to respond to roster deficiencies. In summary, I am more comfortable with Hutton serving as the backup than most others are. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Good article.  It verifies the eye test and makes one wonder why KA didn't swap one of our puck movers, like Montour or Miller for a McCabe type vet to play with and tutor Dahlin.  Also would have given Dahlin more freedom to be himself.  

This strategy worked when Tallinder was paired with Myers years ago and that same strategy is working with Risto now.  Also getting more physical D into the lineup is something people have advocated for for years.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miller or Montour are moved to help get goaltending help.  Adding Borgen or Irwin to the lineup will add much needed physicality.  

 

[Brawndo]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Good article.  It verifies the eye test and makes one wonder why KA didn't swap one of our puck movers, like Montour or Miller for a McCabe type vet to play with and tutor Dahlin.  Also would have given Dahlin more freedom to be himself.  

This strategy worked when Tallinder was paired with Myers years ago and that same strategy is working with Risto now.  Also getting more physical D into the lineup is something people have advocated for for years.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miller or Montour are moved to help get goaltending help.  Adding Borgen or Irwin to the lineup will add much needed physicality.  

 

They were looking at Pietroangelo this past offseason as an UFA 

[nfreeman]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've seen a few posts praising Montour and I just don't get it. What am I seeing differently because to me he is horrible and the Dahlin/Montour pairing is our worst. Risto is clearly our best D man this year and McCabe is a close second. The other two are average. Montour is a horrible role model for Dahlin and that pairing makes absolutely no sense to me. 

As for the team looking better, well it has to, we added an allstar FA to the top line but a lot of the same problems are there and we are soft as butter. 

I think for the last couple of games it's been Dahlin-Miller and Montour-Joker.

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've seen a few posts praising Montour and I just don't get it. What am I seeing differently because to me he is horrible and the Dahlin/Montour pairing is our worst. Risto is clearly our best D man this year and McCabe is a close second. The other two are average. Montour is a horrible role model for Dahlin and that pairing makes absolutely no sense to me. 

As for the team looking better, well it has to, we added an allstar FA to the top line but a lot of the same problems are there and we are soft as butter. 

Montour has been better since being separated from Dahlin, which was 2 1/2 games (nearly half a season!) ago.

I think Risto has been very good, but I'd pick Jake McCabe as our best. Not sure if I've seen Jake play better hockey.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Montour has been better since being separated from Dahlin, which was 2 1/2 games (nearly half a season!) ago.

I think Risto has been very good, but I'd pick Jake McCabe as our best. Not sure if I've seen Jake play better hockey.

Jake is in his prime (27) and has improved every year in the NHL.  Sometimes Risto has made it hard on him to show his improvement, but with Risto also now coming into his own, it has shined a spotlight on Jake excellent all around game.  His is physical, he positions himself well, skating is fine, plays well in our zone and like I said during camp, he covers up many of Risto mistakes (which thankfully are coming less often).  

We all loved Jay McKee and guys like Lydman and Tallinder.  I think Jake has earned some of that respect.  

[Weave]

5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I wouldn’t make that trade at all, Eichel is untouchable IMO, I am curious what type of package that Weave would be willing to move him for hence the phrase “For Fun” 

You've got the concept (Kopitar is too old for my tastes).  I  avoided mentioning specific packages because that would devolve into a micro conversation about individual players, contracts, age, etc. and would completely overshadow my point, that a package could certainly be had that would improve the team immediately by virtue of filling all the holes and hide the loss of Jack reasonably well.  It's not like it hasn't been done before.  Is it rare?  It sure as hell is, but so is Jack's talent.  And so is our futility.

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

<snip>It's not like it hasn't been done before.  Is it rare?  It sure as hell is, but so is Jack's talent.  And so is our futility.

If we miss this season, then we would tie the all-time NHL record.  So our futility is rarer than Jack's talent.

[nfreeman]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jake is in his prime (27) and has improved every year in the NHL.  Sometimes Risto has made it hard on him to show his improvement, but with Risto also now coming into his own, it has shined a spotlight on Jake excellent all around game.  His is physical, he positions himself well, skating is fine, plays well in our zone and like I said during camp, he covers up many of Risto mistakes (which thankfully are coming less often).  

We all loved Jay McKee and guys like Lydman and Tallinder.  I think Jake has earned some of that respect.  

McKee was one of my all-time favorite Sabres.

[JohnC]

15 hours ago, Weave said:

You've got the concept (Kopitar is too old for my tastes).  I  avoided mentioning specific packages because that would devolve into a micro conversation about individual players, contracts, age, etc. and would completely overshadow my point, that a package could certainly be had that would improve the team immediately by virtue of filling all the holes and hide the loss of Jack reasonably well.  It's not like it hasn't been done before.  Is it rare?  It sure as hell is, but so is Jack's talent.  And so is our futility.

Why are you so intent on dynamiting the roster so early in the season? Although the accumulated points is somewhat disappointing the overall quality of play has been good. I'm aware that this is a shortened season with a compressed schedule and we are playing in a tough conference. So there needs to be more urgency in this odd season than a standard season. But we have just come off a four game road trip against two good teams. We earned  5 pts out of 8. That isn't exceptional but it is a solid return from a road trip. Why not wait another 6 to 10 games before solidifying your assessment of this team and the direction it is heading? Why not wait to see how this home stand turns out? 

I am not as invested in the analytics as some of the more astute hockey observers are in this site. However, in general they are good. What is more important to me is the eye test that indicates we are not overmatched against the quality teams we have played. I'm not saying we are better but I'm also not saying at least as exhibited by our play we are worse.

My recommendation to you is to be a little more patient and wait to see how things play out. You may turn out to be more right in your pessimistic view than my guarded optimistic view. Just stay away from the dynamite because when you blow up the village it is more difficult to rebuild especially when the inhabitants have been obliterated. 

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=dynatice+explosion&view=detail&mid=73A629FEA941B075D44473A629FEA941B075D444&FORM=VIRE