RK’s system: What is it and does it work?

[Curt]

On 1/21/2021 at 8:14 AM, LGR4GM said:

Sabres shot quality isn't great. 

 

Sorry if you don’t have an answer, but do you know how the Sabres rank in scoring chances for and high danger chances for?

I see that this shows the quality per shot is low, but if they are taking lots of low quality shots, but also getting a good number of high danger chances, that’s going to dilute the quality per shot.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Sorry if you don’t have an answer, but do you know how the Sabres rank in scoring chances for and high danger chances for?

I see that this shows the quality per shot is low, but if they are taking lots of low quality shots, but also getting a good number of high danger chances, that’s going to dilute the quality per shot.

That is basically what shot quality looks it. If they were getting more high danger chances their shot quality would go up. I guess I am unclear what you are asking. 

Most shot quality numbers look at where the shot was taken, what kind shot of what taken, and then compare that to historic averages and save percentages from my understanding to calculate the danger or quality. For example shots from the point are low quality because most of those shots throughout the league get saved. Shots from the middle slot are high quality because the sv% against those shots is lower. 

Someone with more knowledge of this can probably speak to it better. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Sorry if you don’t have an answer, but do you know how the Sabres rank in scoring chances for and high danger chances for?

I see that this shows the quality per shot is low, but if they are taking lots of low quality shots, but also getting a good number of high danger chances, that’s going to dilute the quality per shot.

According to hockey-reference we are below the NHL average this season in both categories.  We are also below league average in 5 on 5 shooting%

[LGR4GM]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to hockey-reference we are below the NHL average this season in both categories.  We are also below league average in 5 on 5 shooting%

Hence our lower shot quality. 

[Taro T]

Suppose this could start its own thread, but looking at the lines & pairings by ice time, Krueger is definitely favoring who he considers his top guys.

All 3 Fs on line 1 get at least 20 minutes/ game w/ Eichel topping out at over 21 minutes.

The 2nd line guys (including Thompson here) get ~17 minutes/ game w/ Olofsson topping out at 17:45 and Tage bringing up the rear at 16:44.

Skinner gets significantly more ice time than the other 4th liners at just under 15 minutes/ game. Lazar gets 11:42 & Sheahan is the 12th at 10:42. (If you didn't notice Asplund much in the 3rd, that's because he only played 7:20 in his 1 game.)

3rd line got between 12:24 (Reider) & Eakin (13:16).  Cozens split the difference at 12:44.

On D, it all was pretty even w/ 3 guys over 20 minutes & the 9ther 3 around 17.  (Dahlin 21:05; Ristolainen 20:42; Montour 20:33; & McCabe 17:31; Miller 17:03; Jokiharju 16:45)

So, he's riding Eichel & the big 3 the most at 20 minutes plus w/ Staal's line & the lesser 3 getting ~17 minutes each.  Skinner is clearly the "bottom 6" guy that gets called on the most w/ the rest of the "offensive" bottom 6 line getting slightly less action than the "defensive" bottom 6 line.

He's definitely changed his usage to reflect the change in where the strengths of the forwards now lie & we're seeing a much more typical NHL depth chart than we've seen in the past.

It'll be interesting to see if Montour & Dahlin remain split & if they do, it'll be interesting to see if Montour and Miller's usage remains as before or if they also swap ice time.  (Am expecting ice time to remain consistent even if the partners don't.)

Also, will be interesting to see who sits w/ Okposo coming back.  The candidates are Thompson, Cozens, Lazar, & Sheahan (not necessarily in order of likelihood to sit) w/ Reider being a very outside shot to sit as well.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Suppose this could start its own thread, but looking at the lines & pairings by ice time, Krueger is definitely favoring who he considers his top guys.

All 3 Fs on line 1 get at least 20 minutes/ game w/ Eichel topping out at over 21 minutes.

The 2nd line guys (including Thompson here) get ~17 minutes/ game w/ Olofsson topping out at 17:45 and Tage bringing up the rear at 16:44.

Skinner gets significantly more ice time than the other 4th liners at just under 15 minutes/ game. Lazar gets 11:42 & Sheahan is the 12th at 10:42. (If you didn't notice Asplund much in the 3rd, that's because he only played 7:20 in his 1 game.)

3rd line got between 12:24 (Reider) & Eakin (13:16).  Cozens split the difference at 12:44.

On D, it all was pretty even w/ 3 guys over 20 minutes & the 9ther 3 around 17.  (Dahlin 21:05; Ristolainen 20:42; Montour 20:33; & McCabe 17:31; Miller 17:03; Jokiharju 16:45)

So, he's riding Eichel & the big 3 the most at 20 minutes plus w/ Staal's line & the lesser 3 getting ~17 minutes each.  Skinner is clearly the "bottom 6" guy that gets called on the most w/ the rest of the "offensive" bottom 6 line getting slightly less action than the "defensive" bottom 6 line.

He's definitely changed his usage to reflect the change in where the strengths of the forwards now lie & we're seeing a much more typical NHL depth chart than we've seen in the past.

It'll be interesting to see if Montour & Dahlin remain split & if they do, it'll be interesting to see if Montour and Miller's usage remains as before or if they also swap ice time.  (Am expecting ice time to remain consistent even if the partners don't.)

Also, will be interesting to see who sits w/ Okposo coming back.  The candidates are Thompson, Cozens, Lazar, & Sheahan (not necessarily in order of likelihood to sit) w/ Reider being a very outside shot to sit as well.

Is it just me, or is Montour getting the most ES time on the blueline?

And we haven't really seen enough PK to establish trends, but how has the defence been utilized?

 

[Taro T]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it just me, or is Montour getting the most ES time on the blueline?

And we haven't really seen enough PK to establish trends, but how has the defence been utilized?

 

Dahlin's gotten the most.  Then followed by Ristolainen & Montour.

Haven't paid close attention to the PK pairings (w/ only 4 chances so far, not much chance there), but eyeballing it would say that Risto-McCabe has spent the most time w/ the Eichel line (~60% of the time they're out) w/ Montour-Ras getting about 40% of that.

The other lines seem to get whomever they're out with.  (Again, just eyeballing it.)

And Dahlin gets significantly more PP time with Ristolainen getting a fair share as well.  So Montour probably does lead in ES ice time.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Taro T

[Curt]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That is basically what shot quality looks it. If they were getting more high danger chances their shot quality would go up. I guess I am unclear what you are asking. 

Most shot quality numbers look at where the shot was taken, what kind shot of what taken, and then compare that to historic averages and save percentages from my understanding to calculate the danger or quality. For example shots from the point are low quality because most of those shots throughout the league get saved. Shots from the middle slot are high quality because the sv% against those shots is lower. 

Someone with more knowledge of this can probably speak to it better. 

Hypothetically scenario to clarify:  If a team is leading the league in total shots, with an average number of high danger chances per game and a ton of low danger chances, all those low danger chances will drag down the quality per shot and make their quality per shot low, even if they are generating a pretty good number of high danger chances.

So I’m wondering how the Sabres rank in high danger chances per game, as opposed to quality per shot, which that chart presents.

[Curt]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to hockey-reference we are below the NHL average this season in both categories.  We are also below league average in 5 on 5 shooting%

Ah, thanks, got it.  I forgot HR had that.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hypothetically scenario to clarify:  If a team is leading the league in total shots, with an average number of high danger chances per game and a ton of low danger chances, all those low danger chances will drag down the quality per shot and make their quality per shot low, even if they are generating a pretty good number of high danger chances.

So I’m wondering how the Sabres rank in high danger chances per game, as opposed to quality per shot, which that chart presents.

I suppose but they would be dominating possession in that instance most likely and still generating goals. 

Nat stat trick tracks HDC I think

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I suppose but they would be dominating possession in that instance most likely and still generating goals. 

Nat stat trick tracks HDC I think

Yeah, that hypothetical team probably would be dominating possession and generating goals, but their quality per shot attempt wouldn’t be very good.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Suppose this could start its own thread, but looking at the lines & pairings by ice time, Krueger is definitely favoring who he considers his top guys.

All 3 Fs on line 1 get at least 20 minutes/ game w/ Eichel topping out at over 21 minutes.

The 2nd line guys (including Thompson here) get ~17 minutes/ game w/ Olofsson topping out at 17:45 and Tage bringing up the rear at 16:44.

Skinner gets significantly more ice time than the other 4th liners at just under 15 minutes/ game. Lazar gets 11:42 & Sheahan is the 12th at 10:42. (If you didn't notice Asplund much in the 3rd, that's because he only played 7:20 in his 1 game.)

3rd line got between 12:24 (Reider) & Eakin (13:16).  Cozens split the difference at 12:44.

On D, it all was pretty even w/ 3 guys over 20 minutes & the 9ther 3 around 17.  (Dahlin 21:05; Ristolainen 20:42; Montour 20:33; & McCabe 17:31; Miller 17:03; Jokiharju 16:45)

So, he's riding Eichel & the big 3 the most at 20 minutes plus w/ Staal's line & the lesser 3 getting ~17 minutes each.  Skinner is clearly the "bottom 6" guy that gets called on the most w/ the rest of the "offensive" bottom 6 line getting slightly less action than the "defensive" bottom 6 line.

He's definitely changed his usage to reflect the change in where the strengths of the forwards now lie & we're seeing a much more typical NHL depth chart than we've seen in the past.

It'll be interesting to see if Montour & Dahlin remain split & if they do, it'll be interesting to see if Montour and Miller's usage remains as before or if they also swap ice time.  (Am expecting ice time to remain consistent even if the partners don't.)

Also, will be interesting to see who sits w/ Okposo coming back.  The candidates are Thompson, Cozens, Lazar, & Sheahan (not necessarily in order of likelihood to sit) w/ Reider being a very outside shot to sit as well.

I am baffled as to why Montour was taken off of the pairing with Dahlin? What was the reasoning?

[Taro T]

Just now, JohnC said:

I am baffled as to why Montour was taken off of the pairing with Dahlin? What was the reasoning?

No data.  The pairing was IMHO playing their best hockey of the short season when they were split up.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

No data.  The pairing was IMHO playing their best hockey of the short season when they were split up.

My eye test corresponded to your eye test. I thought they were an excellent fit. At times I find him befuddling when he puts together and then changes the pieces around. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

My eye test corresponded to your eye test. I thought they were an excellent fit. At times I find him befuddling when he puts together and then changes the pieces around. 

Montour had the most ice time that game of any Sabre not named Hutton, so my guess is though we might expect it was done to separate Montour & Dahlin, it rather had something to do w/ not allowing Filly to exploit something he saw in the Miller Jokiharju pairing.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Taro T

[Taro T]

Not really going towards Krueger's system, but more towards his philosophy is he tries to put players in positions to succeed & avoid putting them into positions where they're more likely to be the goat than the hero.

An example, in close games he shortens the bench and if there is a lead the young guy ends up being the 1st or nearly 1st to have his ice time reduced.  Asplund & Mittelstadt barely saw the ice in the 3rd in their games and Cozens wasn't out much against the Rags down the stretch.  But both Cozens & Mittelstadt were put into the shootout in a spot where a goal would win the shootout but a miss merely meant it continued.

Towards his system, there are a lot of cross ice passes on the breakout.  Usually they work, but sometimes a skate is hit on that pass and a spectacularly bad result ensues.

[MODO Hockey]

This coach is so clueless it makes my 41 year old pewee look young and fresh. 

Funny thing is that im over here in the north of Sweden thinking i would do better, but anyone with a dent of hockey sense can see this.

He does not know how to coach, he is so so bad at it that watching him behind the bench is painful to say the least, and above that when 
listening to him in post interviews you actually want to cry. 

He literally said yesterday that he thought mitts was a fresh add to the unit and that he played very well, that was the reason why he didnt put skinner up there. 

MITTS ?! And Thompsson?! no good coach would ever put these trash players on his lineup ever unless forced to. 

I see for exemple Reider that has showed up every game and pushed hard every shift, this guy deserves to be given a  shot next to eichle and olofsson, it would give eichle and olofsson some room when he is berserking his way trough the offensive zone. But no.. 

If Kreuger want his system to work, then he has to show and give the players that actually TRY play his system the chance instead of playing his idiotic setups that he think would work, every team see trough his system now and the PP to, they need to change it up way more than they have and that is on Ralph alone. 
 

Edited February 1, 2021 by MODO Hockey

[LGR4GM]

If you want to know, here is a breakdown of Ralph's system which lacked puck support.

 

[spndnchz]

Pay wall

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, spndnchz said:

Pay wall

Give me an hour and I can post some excerpts 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@LGR4GM It's kind of sad I started this thread in game 2 of the season (Jan 15).  I guess the writing, at least for me, regarding RK and his lack of coaching was on the wall at the start of the season.

 

 

[LTS]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If you want to know, here is a breakdown of Ralph's system which lacked puck support.

Totally.  I think many said it all along.  You see a team spread out over the ice, one guy on the forecheck most of the time or guys backing out of the battle for the puck.  Dumping the puck in and hoping one guy can beat two to the puck.  Long passes.  That's not how you win in this game.  You need two to three guys near the puck.  It's not a big area game.  That might work somewhat on international rinks but not in the North American rink.

Looking forward to excerpts if you get them. 

[LGR4GM]

His system was the standard 1-2-2. They used a slot protection structure in the defensive zone. 

Quote

The forechecking F1 (the first forward on the forecheck) would often pressure alone, detached from the formation, as the F2 (the second forward on the forecheck) would only engage if the team had a clear chance at stealing possession. And in the defensive zone, the Sabres didn't pressure the top of the zone as hard, keeping their F1 in and around the slot when the puck moved high.  

Quote

Many teams add their weakside blueliner to every rush attack. They stretch their forwards, push back the opposition, and create open ice for their defencemen to sprint up ice with the rush. This activation creates more defensive risks but also more opportunities. It helps the team outnumber the opposition and change the point of attack, as it gives another passing outlet across the ice, in the less guarded, weakside lane.

Quote

A player misses an assignment or cheats a bit defensively, which leads to an overcorrection from another one, which creates an odd-man attack in which the remaining defenders end up looking bad. On the offensive side of the ice, players don't give quick enough passing support, forcing their puck-carrying teammate to twist and turn to find an option or get rid of the puck, which leads to a turnover and longer defensive sequences. 

Quote

The team currently sits third last in team save percentage with 90.23 percent.

There's the highlights 

[LTS]

There it is.  Not a fan of the 1-2-2, especially if your D are giving up the line.  No quick passing support.  And the cheating.. ugh.. you play with 1 person on the ice who doesn't do their job and you might as well be short handed.

Hmm.. go figure. 🙂

Everything about them said, play defensive first, don't give up a goal.  If you get the puck try and counter on a long pass.  Puck possession is not important.

The worst formula you can use.  

Thanks for digging that up.

 

[LouBrawls]

I'd read somewhere, can't recall where, that this was a "proven system"... maybe those were RK's words.Can anyone name a specific time, team or where this system has worked?  because it seems like it's set up for failure.  All of this also verifies my notion that he was trying to plug the players into a system and not playing to their strengths. You could see it in the lack of creativity, they looked tentative, knowing if one dominoe fell then that was it.