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Predictions for arbitration: Ullmark, Reinhart, Olofsson


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Linus gets his hearing Monday and Sam Tuesday. Victor’s is November 4.

According to Dreger, all three are in serious negotiations as we speak. We had a leak a week or so ago (from Jeremy White, or Chad D?) that Victor was close on a two-year bridge similar to what Sam just finished. Nothing on the other two.

So far around the league, all five scheduled hearings have been cancelled because deals were reached in time. Same for three other hearings next week.

What’s going to happen with our guys? What should happen?

Edited by dudacek
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Connor Brown signed just hours before his hearing yesterday for 3 years at $3.6.

Our buddy Garrioch says the asks going in were $2.25 and $4.8.

Brown’s numbers last year aren’t hugely different from Victor’s. Victor has better PPG but less of a track record.

 

Edited by dudacek
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18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I figured on Ullmark 2 year 2.8 to 3 per season, VO at 3 for 1 year and 3.5 for 2.  Reinhart, I think Gallagher’s deal is close. Could be as low at 5.5 for a 1 year deal.

These look good. Everything I'm seeing being signed has me suspecting we'll get this all taken care of in about $11M, with 2M to spare below the cap.

Then, it'll be time to look at Dahlin and Joker and how to get Seattle to take Okposo's cap hit (or Skinner).

And seriously, how has Cirelli or Sergachev not been enticed to sign an offer sheet yet? C'mon GMs --- this is THE season to poach if you're going to do it. Lock up a 23-year old Cup winner stud in your top 6 or top pair for the next 7 seasons at a good price ($6M). For a 1st and 3rd in a season when there might not even be junior hockey/NCAA to play.

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22 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

These look good. Everything I'm seeing being signed has me suspecting we'll get this all taken care of in about $11M, with 2M to spare below the cap.

Then, it'll be time to look at Dahlin and Joker and how to get Seattle to take Okposo's cap hit (or Skinner).

And seriously, how has Cirelli or Sergachev not been enticed to sign an offer sheet yet? C'mon GMs --- this is THE season to poach if you're going to do it. Lock up a 23-year old Cup winner stud in your top 6 or top pair for the next 7 seasons at a good price ($6M). For a 1st and 3rd in a season when there might not even be junior hockey/NCAA to play.

I’ll never understand why GM’s are adverse to offer sheeting other teams players. The rule is there, use it. Especially against division rivals. 

Can you imagine if Belicheat had this option in his arsenal?

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32 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I’ll never understand why GM’s are adverse to offer sheeting other teams players. The rule is there, use it. Especially against division rivals. 

Can you imagine if Belicheat had this option in his arsenal?

It's fear if a team does it opens up the can of worms that another team will do it to them. I agree it should be done more as to me draft picks, especially in the NHL, are over valued. 

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52 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

It's fear if a team does it opens up the can of worms that another team will do it to them. I agree it should be done more as to me draft picks, especially in the NHL, are over valued. 

Precisely. Hey GMs, if you win a Cup you'll get to stick around for awhile... and someone else will hire you no problem. You'll be in the game for 15 years. If you stink, you'll be gone in 3-5 years anyway. Live a little!

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57 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

It's fear if a team does it opens up the can of worms that another team will do it to them. I agree it should be done more as to me draft picks, especially in the NHL, are over valued. 

I don’t buy into this narrative. The Eulers offer sheeted Vanek. The Sabres didn’t retaliate. 
 

The ongoing hypothesis is that there is some sort of “honor code” amongst Gms to not do it to each other. Which would make more sense in an era where Gms kept their positions for 10-20 years and had to continually try and deal with each other. 
 

What’s the shelf life of a GM today? 2-4 years? Who cares. Use the tool to create some longevity for yourself as a GM, and weaken that of the other GM that couldn’t manage their cap properly or sign their players promptly. 

Edited by Andrew Amerk
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I'd bet dollars to donuts that both Ullmark and Olofsson sign before their hearings.  Ullmark in the $2.25-2.50m range, VO around $3.1-3.4m.   

Reinhart is a self-absorbed egomaniac who things he's worth north of $8m, haha,  j/k... but do I think he does end up in arbitration getting a one year deal around $5.25-5.75m.   

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Does anyone know if there has been any official or semi-official word as to whether economic contraction will be factored into arbitration awards?

If there has been no such indication, I guess the Sabres will be the guinea pigs unless they reach deals with Ullmark and/or Reino.

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3 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I don’t buy into this narrative. The Eulers offer sheeted Vanek. The Sabres didn’t retaliate. 
 

The ongoing hypothesis is that there is some sort of “honor code” amongst Gms to not do it to each other. Which would make more sense in an era where Gms kept their positions for 10-20 years and had to continually try and deal with each other. 
 

What’s the shelf life of a GM today? 2-4 years? Who cares. Use the tool to create some longevity for yourself as a GM, and weaken that of the other GM that couldn’t manage their cap properly or sign their players promptly. 

My hypothesis isn't the GMs it's that owners won't sign off on them and they collude with each other to prevent them because they drive up salaries on young players. Honestly, there aren't too many other explanations that make the slightest bit of sense.

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4 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I’ll never understand why GM’s are adverse to offer sheeting other teams players. The rule is there, use it. Especially against division rivals. 

Can you imagine if Belicheat had this option in his arsenal?

Honestly I can't even remember the last time it has happened since the Edmonton/ Vanek thing.

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3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I'd bet dollars to donuts that both Ullmark and Olofsson sign before their hearings.  Ullmark in the $2.25-2.50m range, VO around $3.1-3.4m.   

Reinhart is a self-absorbed egomaniac who things he's worth north of $8m, haha,  j/k... but do I think he does end up in arbitration getting a one year deal around $5.25-5.75m.   

Aww man for a sec I thought you were serious with the Sam part; thought ut-oh here we go lol!

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38 minutes ago, I-90 W said:

Honestly I can't even remember the last time it has happened since the Edmonton/ Vanek thing.

Montreal offer-sheeted Sebastian Aho last year. Carolina matched.

 

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1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Montreal offer-sheeted Sebastian Aho last year. Carolina matched.

 

Okay thanks.

Figured it has happened since just couldn't think of any. I definitely missed that one. 

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3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Does anyone know if there has been any official or semi-official word as to whether economic contraction will be factored into arbitration awards?

If there has been no such indication, I guess the Sabres will be the guinea pigs unless they reach deals with Ullmark and/or Reino.

No, it will not be.  It is specifically written into the CBA regulations on arbitration that neither the financial situations of the team nor the league can be presented as part of either party's argument.

Edited by Shootica
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6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The question isn't what will the arbitration number be, it's will the Sabres pay it or not. 

Well, each of the 3 Sabres going to arbitration is a pretty important player, and it would only be a 1-year commitment.  I would be very surprised if the Sabres walked away from any of them.  

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10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Does anyone know if there has been any official or semi-official word as to whether economic contraction will be factored into arbitration awards?

If there has been no such indication, I guess the Sabres will be the guinea pigs unless they reach deals with Ullmark and/or Reino.

The arbitration awards would mostly likely correspond to the comparable salaries of players who have similar statistics. The incentive will probably be for the players and organization to settle on short term deals prior to arbitration and hope that the economic environment will get better in a couple of years. 

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12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Just give him 2.75 and move on. 

Agree. Would not go above that. Fear arbitration will go over three but under walk away amount.

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