2020-'21 Sabres Prospects

[Thorny]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Current Sabres prospect pipeline.  My prospect definition is 24 and under, waiver exempt and played in the minors (or lower tiers) of hockey part of last season or are no longer in the NHL.  By that definition, Cozens, Tage, Borgen, Asplund and Mitts all graduated, while R2, Samuelsson, and Bryson all remain prospects.

So given the roster upheaval from last season who are our top prospects prior to this year's draft.

Forwards:  Quinn, JJP, R2, Huglen, Murray, Weissbach, Rousek and Pekar.  IMHO, the first 3 have significant NHL futures, while there is significant question marks about the rest.  I'll be interested to see how Weissbach does in his first pro season and whether Huglen builds on his game now that he is finally healthy.  

Defense: Bryson, Samuelsson, Laaksonen, Johnson, Kukkonen and Fitzgerald.  Obviously the first 4 are future Sabres.  I think the upside for all 4 is 2nd pairing guys with Johnson possibly being a 1st pairing shutdown player.  Bryson and Samuelsson looked they belong in the NHL sooner then later.  I think Bryson is a fulltime Sabres next year.  I also think we shouldn't sleep on Kukkonen.  He was the 2nd youngest fulltime player on his Liiga team and is a solid defensive D.  

Goaltending:  UPL and Portillo.  

Rank:

1 - Quinn - We needed scoring wingers and he can play that role and is already a 200 ft player.

2 - Routsalainen - I was impressed with his 1st NA season.  Looks like a better all around version of VO

3 - JJP - Arguably might actually be the best prospect we have, but need to see him here first.

4 - UPL - following the Ullmark development path (including the injuries) but with more upside

5 - Johnson - see above

6 - Samuelsson - see above

7 - Laaksonen - see above, and was AHL all-star in first NA season

8. - Bryson - proved he is an NHLer last season, just not sure given his size of the upside.  Will the offense come?

9. - Portillo -  Michigan starter next season, but was excellent in a backup role last season

GAP

10 - Weissbach - 41 pts in 31 NCAA games last season.  Lets see how he adjusts to the pro game

11 - Huglen -35 pts in 39 USHL game and 8 pts in 9 playoff games after returning from a 1.5 years off do to injury.  This kid has a ton of upside but we'll see if he can achieve it.

12 - Kukkonen - see above

13 - Rousek - bringing his decent hands and physical game to the AHL next season

14 - Murray - Strange trip to becoming a legit prospect, but made NHL debut this year.  Projects as a depth player with occasional scoring, but has size and is willing to use it

GAP

15 - Biro - college FA was ok in his first AHL season.  Needs to find his NCAA scoring touch.

16 - Pekar - disappointing first pro season.   Thought he would transition easier.  

17 - Costantini - had a solid 1st USHL season with 22 pts in 37 games.

18 - Fitzgerald - Unlikely to make the jump to the NHL.

19 - Worge-Kreu - graduated to the SHL at 21 and has size, but it's likely be a few more years to see if he has a NHL future.  I doubt it

20 - Cronholm - see Kreu but without the size.

Damn, our prospect pipeline needs centres. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Damn, our prospect pipeline needs centres. 

and now you know why I said draft Beniers No. 1.  We need centers and we need high end centers.

Edited June 23, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

and now you know why I said draft Beniers No. 1.  We need centers and we need high end centers.

Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

and now you know why I said draft Beniers No. 1.  We need centers and we need high end centers.

They end up with 3 high picks they should take Power, Beniers, and Johnson. 

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will. 

What do you have his ceiling at?

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will. 

NHL points?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will. 

So ROR.  I'd take that in a minute.  

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

They end up with 3 high picks they should take Power, Beniers, and Johnson. 

What do you have his ceiling at?

I think Eklund might end up being the most dynamic scorer in this draft.  I'd take him over both Powers and Johnson.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

They end up with 3 high picks they should take Power, Beniers, and Johnson. 

What do you have his ceiling at?

😆

Don't know about that.  You think people are ready to accept the Sabres changing their colors again after so recently from finally getting them right with royal blue & gold.  Somehow blue & corn just doesn't seem quite right.  😉

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

NHL points?

Yes. 

They put Power at 25-30 so again make of it what you will. In the last week though the draft guides we need for the in depth stuff have started to come out clearing up some of the picture. 

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So ROR.  I'd take that in a minute.  

I think Eklund might end up being the most dynamic scorer in this draft.  I'd take him over both Powers and Johnson.

We really have never talked enough about Eklund. 

[WildCard]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Yes. 

They put Power at 25-30 so again make of it what you will. In the last week though the draft guides we need for the in depth stuff have started to come out clearing up some of the picture. 

We really have never talked enough about Eklund. 

Is that through his NHL equivalency then? Curious how they're coming up with that, what you're coming up with, and how accurate that is.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Is that through his NHL equivalency then? Curious how they're coming up with that, what you're coming up with, and how accurate that is.

NHLe only accounts for transferring current production to the NHL. Couldn't say how accurate they are with a projecting point total but we will have to watch and see. 

The SEAL adjusted scoring for Beniers is 1.34 and Power is 0.81 (defenders are almost always lower unless they are Dahlin). 

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

😆

Don't know about that.  You think people are ready to accept the Sabres changing their colors again after so recently from finally getting them right with royal blue & gold.  Somehow blue & corn just doesn't seem quite right.  😉

I'm sure Adams wouldn't say no to a little built-in team camaraderie 

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So ROR.  I'd take that in a minute.  

I think Eklund might end up being the most dynamic scorer in this draft.  I'd take him over both Powers and Johnson.

Part of the reason ROR is somehow still underrated - hasn't been a 55 point player in 6 years. 

Last 3 seasons - 

77 points

65 points (adjusted for shortened season)

79 points (adjusted for same reason)

Edited June 23, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Just want to type it out 1 more time. Typically if you see an NHLe number that is transferring a current point total in a lesser league to the NHL. For example Mitts NHLe was 31 points in the NHL and he basically did that his first year. Dahlin in his first year I think had an NHLe of like 38 and he got slightly above it. NHLe is meant to normalize production in junior leagues to an NHL equivalent for comparisons. 

[Thorny]

Who's report was it that had Beniers ceiling at 55 points? Seems low for a ceiling

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'm sure Adams wouldn't say no to a little built-in team camaraderie 

Part of the reason ROR is somehow still underrated - hasn't been a 55 point player in 6 years. 

Last 3 seasons - 

77 points

65 points (adjusted for shortened season)

79 points (adjusted for same reason)

55 Points for Beniers is just speculation.  I think his upside is ROR or Bergeron which I have been saying for weeks.  A projection of 55 points is what ROR was when we acquired him.

[Thorny]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

55 Points for Beniers is just speculation.  I think his upside is ROR or Bergeron which I have been saying for weeks.  A projection of 55 points is what ROR was when we acquired him.

And people say the Sabres don't develop players...

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Who's report was it that had Beniers ceiling at 55 points? Seems low for a ceiling

EP Rinkside. "something in the 45-55 point range seems attainable at the height of his career" this is after they love on his dominant 2way game. 

That's not a mathematical stats projection just what they think he will be at based on how he plays. 

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes. 

They put Power at 25-30 so again make of it what you will. In the last week though the draft guides we need for the in depth stuff have started to come out clearing up some of the picture. 

We really have never talked enough about Eklund. 

#2 prospect in the draft for me.  What he did in the SHL this season was very impressive.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

EP Rinkside. "something in the 45-55 point range seems attainable at the height of his career" this is after they love on his dominant 2way game. 

That's not a mathematical stats projection just what they think he will be at based on how he plays. 

That's pretty darn low for a potential 1 overall, though, all things considered 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

That's pretty darn low for a potential 1 overall, though, all things considered 

Agreed. Again they think his defensive chops more than make up for it. Most places I feel like talk about Beniers in that 50-60 range. I think at one point I hoped for 70 but these reports have talked me back from that as maybe a bit outside the likelihood. Idk I think his production is very translatable so depending on how he develops you can see a 25 goal scorer with 35-40 assists. Really hard draft to make those predictions with the limits we have. 

[rakish]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will. 

I get 75. In 5-5 Beniers scores about 75% what Jack did at age 17. Beniers outscored his cohorts by a little more, and they were, as a group, a little better, I might get talked into 80. 

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, rakish said:

I get 75. In 5-5 Beniers scores about 75% what Jack did at age 17. Beniers outscored his cohorts by a little more, and they were, as a group, a little better, I might get talked into 80. 

Oh so I am not crazy. I kept looking at his p1/ev and p1/gp and he just outproduces everyone. I think because he transitions so well and generates high danger chances so well he could turn into an assist machine with a linemate like Skinner. 

[steveoath]

44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

he could turn into an assist machine with a linemate like Skinner

This is just one of the reasons I want him as a sabre.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Using Dobber's NHLe calculator here is some food for thought

ROR draft year OHL 66 pts in 68 games - NHLe 26 - Best season in 2018-19 with 28g 49a for 77 pts and has .71 pts per game played in his career

Bergeron draft year in the Q 73 pts in 70 games - NHLe 24 - Best NHL season 2018-19 with 32 g and 47 assists for 79 pts and has .80 pts per game played for his career.

Beniers draft year in the Big 10 24 pts in 24 games - NHLe 27. 

Both ROR and Bergeron jumped immediately to the NHL in their first season after being drafted. Bergeron had 39 pts in 71 games and ROR had 26 in 81 games.  Both fully blossomed in their 3rd pro seasons with ROR scoring 55 pts in 81 games and Bergeron with 73 pts in 81 games.

 

[kas23]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think Eklund might end up being the most dynamic scorer in this draft.  I'd take him over both Powers and Johnson.

Based on what KA has been repeatedly saying, I’m unsure he’s going to simply going to select the guy who’s going to have the most points over the next 5 years. He wants offensive prowess, but also wants them playing the whole rink and punishing players while at it. True pain in the ***** to play. I know nothing about Eklund, but does he fit this mold?

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Based on what KA has been repeatedly saying, I’m unsure he’s going to simply going to select the guy who’s going to have the most points over the next 5 years. He wants offensive prowess, but also wants them playing the whole rink and punishing players while at it. True pain in the ***** to play. I know nothing about Eklund, but does he fit this mold?

Eklund plays the entire rink and is one of the craftiest puck distributors I have ever watched. His manipulation of defenses is elite. If by punishing you mean hitting stuff, Eklund has no problem using his body to give himself room and space but no he won't punish ppl that way. I also don't think that is what Adams has in mind but instead players who have high motors and play their entire shift which does apply to Eklund. 

This comparison is due to production not playing styles. While Skinner has a tendency to not use his teammates that well, Eklund has some of the most sophisticated passing and defensive manipulation you'll see in an 18 year old and he did it against men. If he hadn't gotten Covid, his production might have maintained the entire season making him a slam dunk 1 overall. 

Edited June 23, 2021 by LGR4GM