2020-'21 Sabres Prospects

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Good move. It's looking increasingly unlikely the BCHL will play this year outside a small regional cohort, and that may not even be coming back

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Good move. It's looking increasingly unlikely the BCHL will play this year outside a small regional cohort, and that may not even be coming back

Why isn't he in College right now again? Cause of Covid?

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Why isn't he in College right now again? Cause of Covid?

He just turned 18 in August.  He is committed there for the 21-22 season.  He’s young, that may have just been the plan from the start.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

He just turned 18 in August.  He is committed there for the 21-22 season.  He’s young, that may have just been the plan from the start.

That's what I was curious about - generally college starts the year you turn 18 right, obviously it's common to wait a bit though, too. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That's what I was curious about - generally college starts the year you turn 18 right, obviously it's common to wait a bit though, too. 

Pretty sure some hockey players wait a year or two to start their NCAA scholarships if there are concerns about being able to get on the ice.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

Pretty sure some hockey players wait a year or two to start their NCAA scholarships if there are concerns about being able to get on the ice.

Yeah, it’s why they sometimes make a big deal about “true” freshmen. 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yeah, it’s why they sometimes make a big deal about “true” freshmen. 

Though when they use this it always bears looking into as not all "true freshman" are created equal. For example Eichel was a true freshman in his draft year and had Matteo gone to college this season he'd be a true freshman in his D1. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

http://collegehockeyinc.com/articles/2019/03/study-data-shows-need-for-patience.php#:~:text=College Hockey Inc.,paid to the youngest commits.

Average commitment to a school is 18.9, with 28.6% being 20 or 21.  Average age when the player debuts in the NCAA is 20.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/funfacts-ageavg.php\

At 30 D1 schools the average age of their teams are 22 or older.  

Edited January 11, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[tom webster]

On 1/8/2021 at 4:52 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just read the list and he lost me at Matt Boldy.  He said Boldy's compete level was "average."  Apparently he didn't watch the WJRs.  Coach Leaman said following the Gold Medal win that Boldy's compete level was off the charts.  His willingness to work in the dirty areas was a huge key to the teams' success.  

https://www.si.com/hockey/news/matt-boldy-has-been-a-do-everything-guy-for-the-united-states

Also last I looked, Mitts is not a below-average skater.  Every scouting report I've ever seen lists him as above average to dynamic and watching him for the Sabres skating is not his issue.  

He is not a great skater. He’s quick in short space but he is definitely average at best in straight line.

[Curt]

On 1/8/2021 at 4:52 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just read the list and he lost me at Matt Boldy.  He said Boldy's compete level was "average."  Apparently he didn't watch the WJRs.  Coach Leaman said following the Gold Medal win that Boldy's compete level was off the charts.  His willingness to work in the dirty areas was a huge key to the teams' success.  

https://www.si.com/hockey/news/matt-boldy-has-been-a-do-everything-guy-for-the-united-states

Also last I looked, Mitts is not a below-average skater.  Every scouting report I've ever seen lists him as above average to dynamic and watching him for the Sabres skating is not his issue.  

I’ve got to agree with Tom on this.  Casey’s skating is certainly not dynamic.  I’m not even sure that I would call it above average.  At best maybe.  It’s fine.  It could get better.

[tom webster]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Remember when Sam Reinhart had "average skating" those were the good ole days. 

I remember Sam scoring over 60 goals before he was 22. I remember thinking how his hockey IQ compensated for his less then elite speed and then seeing how his work ethic improved his skating.

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, tom webster said:

He is not a great skater. He’s quick in short space but he is definitely average at best in straight line.

 

12 hours ago, Curt said:

I’ve got to agree with Tom on this.  Casey’s skating is certainly not dynamic.  I’m not even sure that I would call it above average.  At best maybe.  It’s fine.  It could get better.

I admit to being legitimately shocked/surprised when I saw how Casey moved around on the NHL ice, after seeing what looked like a dynamic skater at the WJC. I agree with both the takes above. But why the discrepancy? Rose coloured glasses while i watched the WJC? Maybe. But it's not like I saw the same skater, yet overmatched, at the NHL level. It's like he became a worse skater in the interim. 

This gives me a tinge of hope that what we are perceiving as skating issues may at least somewhat stem from his poor processing speed, which can be improved. At the NHL level, when everyone is good, even a split second hesitation will leave the good skaters behind in a patch of dust. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Remember when Sam Reinhart had "average skating" those were the good ole days. 

As an NHL skater, I think he's average. 

That is to say, I think he's a really good skater. 

But I get when people SAID "average" for Sam, they generally meant "poor". He's definitely improved there. 

And his shot, too. And he never misses games. We need more Sam Reinharts. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Thorny

[tom webster]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

I admit to being legitimately shocked/surprised when I saw how Casey moved around on the NHL ice, after seeing what looked like a dynamic skater at the WJC. I agree with both the takes above. But why the discrepancy? Rose coloured glasses while i watched the WJC? Maybe. But it's not like I saw the same skater, yet overmatched, at the NHL level. It's like he became a worse skater in the interim. 

This gives me a tinge of hope that what we are perceiving as skating issues may at least somewhat stem from his poor processing speed, which can be improved. At the NHL level, when everyone is good, even a split second hesitation will leave the good skaters behind in a patch of dust. 

That is a very good point.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

 

I admit to being legitimately shocked/surprised when I saw how Casey moved around on the NHL ice, after seeing what looked like a dynamic skater at the WJC. I agree with both the takes above. But why the discrepancy? Rose coloured glasses while i watched the WJC? Maybe. But it's not like I saw the same skater, yet overmatched, at the NHL level. It's like he became a worse skater in the interim. 

This gives me a tinge of hope that what we are perceiving as skating issues may at least somewhat stem from his poor processing speed, which can be improved. At the NHL level, when everyone is good, even a split second hesitation will leave the good skaters behind in a patch of dust. 

By the time Housley was done with him (and actually a couple of months before that), Mittelstadt looked like a golden lab pup trying to figure out where the ball was getting thrown.  He didn't appreciably get out of that mode until he was demoted.  Getting caught watching tends to make guys look slower than they actually are.

Am looking forward to seeing how he does when he does finally get his chance.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

 

I admit to being legitimately shocked/surprised when I saw how Casey moved around on the NHL ice, after seeing what looked like a dynamic skater at the WJC. I agree with both the takes above. But why the discrepancy? Rose coloured glasses while i watched the WJC? Maybe. But it's not like I saw the same skater, yet overmatched, at the NHL level. It's like he became a worse skater in the interim. 

This gives me a tinge of hope that what we are perceiving as skating issues may at least somewhat stem from his poor processing speed, which can be improved. At the NHL level, when everyone is good, even a split second hesitation will leave the good skaters behind in a patch of dust. 

Just went back and watched some WJC highlights just for confirmation.

I honestly don’t think he looked dynamic there.  His skating looked good.  For juniors I’m sure it was very good.  But that’s probably no better than average in the NHL.  I think part of it was that his fancy stick handling really created space for him against junior players, but NHL players are just a lot better at taking away that space/time.  You need to really come at them with speed to beat them.   I don’t have an issue with Casey’s skating, but if he got better, it would help.

Compare to Reinhart for example.  In juniors his skating was good enough for him to be dominant, but in the NHL he looked like he could barely skate.

NHL players are really good at skating.  Casey could stand to get better.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Just went back and watched some WJC highlights just for confirmation.

I honestly don’t think he looked dynamic there.  His skating looked good.  For juniors I’m sure it was very good.  But that’s probably no better than average in the NHL.  I think part of it was that his fancy stick handling really created space for him against junior players, but NHL players are just a lot better at taking away that space/time.  You need to really come at them with speed to beat them.   I don’t have an issue with Casey’s skating, but if he got better, it would help.

Compare to Reinhart for example.  In juniors his skating was good enough for him to be dominant, but in the NHL he looked like he could barely skate.

NHL players are really good at skating.  Casey could stand to get better.

That's funny, I always thought his skating looked suspect even at the WJC. I immediately remember my respect for his hockey IQ growing substantially, thinking, "damn, this guy really does always find ways to get on the scoreboard, even when he moves around the ice like that" lol

Edited January 12, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That's funny, I always thought his skating looked suspect even at the WJC. I immediately remember my respect for his hockey IQ growing substantially, thinking, "damn, this guy really does always find ways to get on the scoreboard, even when he moves around the ice like that" lol

If you are taking about Mittelstadt, I’m super confused.  Are you talking about Reinhart?

If yes, then I’m with you.  I wasn’t paying much attention to prospects then, but his skating was generally regarded as a weakness at draft time.  My point was just that, in juniors it was good enough for him to get the job done, but in the NHL it wasn’t even close.  Note that I said it was good enough for him to be dominant, not that his skating specifically was dominant.

EDIT:  sorry, I see your bolded section now.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Curt

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

If you are taking about Mittelstadt, I’m super confused.  Are you talking about Reinhart?

If yes, then I’m with you.  I wasn’t paying much attention to prospects then, but his skating was generally regarded as a weakness at draft time.  My point was just that, in juniors it was good enough for him to get the job done, but in the NHL it wasn’t even close.

EDIT:  sorry, I see your bolded section now.

Yup. 

I guess I'll have to check out some Mittelstadt stuff - looking at the Reinhart stuff my memory holds, I'm surprised you are saying Casey's wasn't all that special, I remember it being dynamic. I'll watch out for the stickhandling thing. 

Regardless, I'm still hoping the processing speed is something that's contributing, because it's definitely fixable, and he's looked flat out lost so often I'd be surprised if that wasn't an issue adding to perceived lack of speed. 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yup. 

I guess I'll have to check out some Mittelstadt stuff - looking at the Reinhart stuff my memory holds, I'm surprised you are saying Casey's wasn't all that special, I remember it being dynamic. I'll watch out for the stickhandling thing. 

Regardless, I'm still hoping the processing speed is something that's contributing, because it's definitely fixable, and he's looked flat out lost so often I'd be surprised if that wasn't an issue adding to perceived lack of speed. 

I honestly don’t think it’s been just one thing for him.

I think he has not made adjustments to his play style.  In juniors he could just stick handle through guys.  Hasn’t worked.  Seems like he often just keeps trying.

I also thing he hasn’t been strong enough to win battles or stop from getting muscled off the puck.  He doesn’t seem strong.  That would probably help everything a little bit.

I also think he totally lost his confidence for a long time.

[Thorny]

Just now, Curt said:

I honestly don’t think it’s been just one thing for him.

I think he has not made adjustments to his play style.  In juniors he could just stick handle through guys.  Hasn’t worked.  Seems like he often just keeps trying.

I also thing he hasn’t been strong enough to win battles or stop from getting muscled off the puck.  He doesn’t seem strong.  That would probably help everything a little bit.

I also think he totally lost his confidence for a long time.

The other reason he might not be scoring is that all of his junior numbers project to him not being a high end scorer. 

There's that, too

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The other reason he might not be scoring is that all of his junior numbers project to him not being a high end scorer. 

There's that, too

Lol, this is true.  One excellent tournament and everyone cut the brakes on his hype train.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Lol, this is true.  One excellent tournament and everyone cut the brakes on his hype train.

Casey Mittelstadt in: SPEED Or, Lack Thereof:  The hype train that can't slow down. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/2229558/2021/01/21/nhl-team-prospect-rankings/

Scott Wheeler is doing his NHL prospect pools.  So far he has ranked 21-31 (Sabres aren't ranked yet).  

However the reason I bring this up now is his definition of a prospect.  We have had this discussion here and I am and remain against the artificial 100 game NHL limit.  Apparently Wheeler no longer believe is such a limit either.  Here is his definition.

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must be:

Quote

 

Under 23 years old as of Jan. 1. We now know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.

Not a full-time NHL player. This is the only arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.

Either signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts were not considered.

To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must be:

Under 25 years old as of Jan. 1. This expanded age criteria (it was set at under-24 last year) is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory and allows for the continued consideration of goalies who are very much still prospects.

Not currently established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.

 

I would use 24 and under, because I think some guys, like VO, continue to develop past 23. For NHL experience, I'm glad he isn't using any pre-determine number of games. However, for both parts of his definition I'd like to see him use some more objective criteria such as waiver status, rookie status, and what league someone is playing in.  I'd also like to know how their NHL organization views them.  My guess is the Sabres viewed 24 year old VO as an important prospect two year ago.  The 100 game cutoff would have eliminated guys like Thompson and Mitts, but as we now know, both guys were and are still developing.  

I'm curious where Wheeler places our pipeline.  Under the expanded definition we are looking at Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, Thompson, Asplund, R2,  JJP and Pekar upfront. (Also Rousek, now 21, is blowing up in the czeck republic, w 24 pts (12 goals) in 33 games; He had 29 pts in 52 games last year) Bryson, Samuelsson, Johnson, and Laaksonen on defense plus UPL and Portillo in goal.  I know my friend @LGR4GM is not a huge fan of our pipeline before JJP and Quinn were added, but it will be interesting to see what Wheeler thinks.  

Edited January 22, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[tom webster]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/2229558/2021/01/21/nhl-team-prospect-rankings/

Scott Wheeler is doing his NHL prospect pools.  So far he has ranked 21-31 (Sabres aren't ranked yet).  

However the reason I bring this up now is his definition of a prospect.  We have had this discussion here and I am and remain against the artificial 100 game NHL limit.  Apparently Wheeler no longer believe is such a limit either.  Here is his definition.

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must be:

I would use 24 and under, because I think some guys, like VO, continue to develop past 23. For NHL experience, I'm glad he isn't using any pre-determine number of games. However, for both parts of his definition I'd like to see him use some more objective criteria such as waiver status, rookie status, and what league someone is playing in.  I'd also like to know how their NHL organization views them.  My guess is the Sabres viewed 24 year old VO as an important prospect two year ago.  The 100 game cutoff would have eliminated guys like Thompson and Mitts, but as we now know, both guys were and are still developing.  

I'm curious where Wheeler places our pipeline.  Under the expanded definition we are looking at Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, Thompson, Asplund, R2,  JJP and Pekar upfront. (Also Rousek, now 21, is blowing up in the czeck republic, w 24 pts (12 goals) in 33 games; He had 29 pts in 52 games last year) Bryson, Samuelsson, Johnson, and Laaksonen on defense plus UPL and Portillo in goal.  I know my friend @LGR4GM is not a huge fan of our pipeline before JJP and Quinn were added, but it will be interesting to see what Wheeler thinks.  

I love that you consistently put Casey in the “still developing” category.