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2020-'21 Sabres Prospects


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Seeing as how the 2020-'21 league year is upon us, should probably start a new thread.

Pulled Brawndo's post from last week here as a starting point.

On 10/14/2020 at 11:57 AM, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

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Quinn is 48th?

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Adding Liger's post from today as well.
 
10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I honestly don't wonder anymore why the Sabres are bad. They draft like idiots year after year after year after year. They better hope they are right on Quinn because right now, a multitude of ppl say they ***** up. 

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5 minutes ago, In The Buff said:

not much to be positive about with this. The words OUCH & YIKES come to mind.

Unlike five or six years ago when people said the Sabres prospect pool was best in the league, right?

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9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Unlike five or six years ago when people said the Sabres prospect pool was best in the league, right?

Well 6 years ago we did have a pretty good pool. Reinhart, Ristolainen, Zadorov, Joel Armia, JT Compher, Ulmark, Cal Petersen, Lemiuex, McCabe, Pysyk, Grigorenko. Its just that half of them don't play here anymore. Not sure i understand what you mean then. At 1st it would appear you're taking a jab at them for saying our pool was good back then, which infers they were wrong & hence could be wrong again now. But as far as prospect pools go, it actually looks pretty decent in hindsight, so were they right all along & hence could be right again now?

I think its pretty well documented around here that our prospect pool sucks comparatively speaking to how many high picks we've had, where we should have more prospects to speak of that are worth something. But due to poor asset managing & bad drafting, we dont have much to show for it. So i guess im just confused by your comment.

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Here is the Sabres roster and where they were drafted

1st overall - Hall and Dahlin

2nd overall - Eichel, Reinhart and Staal

7th overall - Skinner, Okposo and Cozens

8th overall - Ristolainen and Mittelstadt

14th - Girgensons

17th - Lazar

26th - Thompson

29th - Jokiharju

44th - McCabe

55th - Montour

85th - Eakin

114th - Rieder

151st - Miller

162nd - Davidsson

163rd - Ullmark

181st - Olofsson

Undrafted - Hutton, Irwin

14 1st rd picks (5 top 2, and 10 top 10), 2 2nd rd picks, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 15th, 2 6th, 1 7th and 2 undrafted. 

Only 10 of the 24 listed were drafted by the Sabres including Cozens and Mitts ho may not make the team this winter.

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3 minutes ago, In The Buff said:

Well 6 years ago we did have a pretty good pool. Reinhart, Ristolainen, Zadorov, Joel Armia, JT Compher, Ulmark, Cal Petersen, Lemiuex, McCabe, Pysyk, Grigorenko. Its just that half of them don't play here anymore. Not sure i understand what you mean then. At 1st it would appear you're taking a jab at them for saying our pool was good back then, which infers they were wrong & hence could be wrong again now. But as far as prospect pools go, it actually looks pretty decent in hindsight, so were they right all along & hence could be right again now?

I think its pretty well documented around here that our prospect pool sucks comparatively speaking to how many high picks we've had, where we should have more prospects to speak of that are worth something. But due to poor asset managing & bad drafting, we dont have much to show for it. So i guess im just confused by your comment.

I’m saying it doesn’t matter what the pundits say about our prospect pool. History has shown it has very little bearing on how good our team, or other teams, will be.
 

With that said, I’m not sure why that group is any more impressive than Cozens, Jokiharju, Samuelson, Quinn, Peterka, Lukkonnen, Portillo, Thompson, Johnson, Bryson and Mittlestadt. And that’s before you add Dahlin.

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25 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Why is Kirill on here?

23. 5th rounder. 5’9. Going to be stifled in that Wild system if he ever comes over here. I’m not seeing it. 

He’s signed and playing this year.

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14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m saying it doesn’t matter what the pundits say about our prospect pool. History has shown it has very little bearing on how good our team, or other teams, will be.
 

With that said, I’m not sure why that group is any more impressive than Cozens, Jokiharju, Samuelson, Quinn, Peterka, Lukkonnen, Portillo, Thompson, Johnson, Bryson and Mittlestadt. And that’s before you add Dahlin.

i'd agree with the bolded for sure. Post draft lists like the one in the tweet generally don't amount to much other than a crap shoot. I'd also probably take off Jokiharju & Dahlin from your list of prospects, just from them playing for a couple years in the league already. You could i suppose make a case to remove Thompson as well. Its that age old question of what constitutes a prospect. And many around here would take a bag of pucks for Mittlestadt currently. Cozens looks the part, Quinn we hope wasnt a miss. The goalies we hope take a step forward & represent our future. But I guess a lot of it comes down to if you think the glass is half full or half empty.

Regardless i think all of us will agree our pool should look better than it does, given how consistently bad our team has been for years (about a decade).

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4 minutes ago, In The Buff said:

i'd agree with the bolded for sure. Post draft lists like the one in the tweet generally don't amount to much other than a crap shoot. I'd also probably take off Jokiharju & Dahlin from your list of prospects, just from them playing for a couple years in the league already. You could i suppose make a case to remove Thompson as well. Its that age old question of what constitutes a prospect. And many around here would take a bag of pucks for Mittlestadt currently. Cozens looks the part, Quinn we hope wasnt a miss. The goalies we hope take a step forward & represent our future. But I guess a lot of it comes down to if you think the glass is half full or half empty.

Regardless i think all of us will agree our pool should look better than it does, given how consistently bad our team has been for years (about a decade).

You listed prospects over a 5-year window and included some like Pysyk and Risto who were in the NHL, although I guess you skipped Girgensons. I was just following that template,

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Unlike five or six years ago when people said the Sabres prospect pool was best in the league, right?

Agree, it means little. 

"A team that has been out of the playoffs this long should not have a prospect pool like this". Ok. He's including "this long" in his judgement. So we know he's aware of, and speaking about, several years past. So how do you logically ignore the likes of Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart, and Rasmus Dahlin, when making the statement?

There will always be a few sleepers but the strength of a team's prospect pool is generally going to be the most recent few guys. After that, they are in the NHL. It stands to follow that the lists are dominated, then, by recent picks. So the "this long" is a rather irrelevant statement from the author, as our pool wouldn't even be represented by anything from most of the time period he's apparently using. 

I'm not saying we have a great prospect pool, just that these things are overrated. I say this a lot but there are so many open variables to consider that "prospect pool strength" analysis is sort of a rainy day concern for me. 

Cozens is being underrated now. Shocker. Every draft, every year, is omgz the bestest draft in all the drafts, so he's ranked 8, now. If he turns our like we think he will our pool is pretty good based on just that, honestly. It's about the roles you need to fill on your team. 

The idea is to build a team where you aren't counting on a ton of draft picks to fill a ton of significant holes. 

Edited by Thorny
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30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s signed and playing this year.

I still don’t see him being the prospect where this list has him. He’s going to come here and be a mediocre contributor. 

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He is my top  20 players in the pipeline

1. Cozens

2. Quinn

3. Mittelstadt

4. Thompson

5. UPL

6. Routsalainen

7. Peterka

8. Samuelsson

9. Johnson

10. Asplund

11. Laaksonen

12. Bryson

13. Pekar

14. Portillo

15. Murray

16. Borgen

17. Weissbach

18. Davidsson

19. Huglen

20. Rousek

Others

Fitzgerald, Biro, Johansson (aged out), DiPietro, Cedarqvist, Cronholm, and Costantini

 

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lets review the past 10 years of sabres first round draft picks

2010: mark pysyk (125 games played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2011: joel armia (1 game played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2012: mikhail grigorenko (68 games played with the sabres , out of the organization) / zemgus girgensons (still in the org but never lived up to the hype and never will)

2013: rasmus ristolainen (most of us hate him and want him gone asap) / nikita zadorov (67 games played with the sabres , out of the organization)

2014: sam reinhart (drai and pasta still on the board)

2015: jack eichel (perfect but obvious pick)

2016: alex nylander (19 games played for the sabres , out of the organization)

2017: casey mittelstadt (so close to having the bust tag put on him)

2018: rasmus dahlin (perfect but obvious choice)

2019: dylan cozens (perfect pick) / ryan johnson (so many other players on the board still that were so much better)

2020: jack quinn (marco rossi was still on the board)

 

there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with this team and drafting. 

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2 minutes ago, chloewoj said:

lets review the past 10 years of sabres first round draft picks

2010: mark pysyk (125 games played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2011: joel armia (1 game played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2012: mikhail grigorenko (68 games played with the sabres , out of the organization) / zemgus girgensons (still in the org but never lived up to the hype and never will)

2013: rasmus ristolainen (most of us hate him and want him gone asap) / nikita zadorov (67 games played with the sabres , out of the organization)

2014: sam reinhart (drai and pasta still on the board)

2015: jack eichel (perfect but obvious pick)

2016: alex nylander (19 games played for the sabres , out of the organization)

2017: casey mittelstadt (so close to having the bust tag put on him)

2018: rasmus dahlin (perfect but obvious choice)

2019: dylan cozens (perfect pick) / ryan johnson (so many other players on the board still that were so much better)

2020: jack quinn (marco rossi was still on the board)

 

there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with this team and drafting. 

You forgot they should have taken Draisaitl over Reinhart.

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1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You forgot they should have taken Draisaitl over Reinhart.

hahaha i said "drai and pasta were still on the board" but you're right...reinhart may be a solid player that has been beyond consistent for the sabres but he's just another draft miss by this sad team 

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2 minutes ago, chloewoj said:

lets review the past 10 years of sabres first round draft picks

2010: mark pysyk (125 games played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2011: joel armia (1 game played with the sabres , out of the organization now)

2012: mikhail grigorenko (68 games played with the sabres , out of the organization) / zemgus girgensons (still in the org but never lived up to the hype and never will)

2013: rasmus ristolainen (most of us hate him and want him gone asap) / nikita zadorov (67 games played with the sabres , out of the organization)

2014: sam reinhart (drai and pasta still on the board)

2015: jack eichel (perfect but obvious pick)

2016: alex nylander (19 games played for the sabres , out of the organization)

2017: casey mittelstadt (so close to having the bust tag put on him)

2018: rasmus dahlin (perfect but obvious choice)

2019: dylan cozens (perfect pick) / ryan johnson (so many other players on the board still that were so much better)

2020: jack quinn (marco rossi was still on the board)

 

there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with this team and drafting. 

Don’t act like ALL teams didn’t have Reinhart as the #1 forward to pick in 2014. Spoiler alert... they did.

Don’t act like Zadorov is a better all around D man than Risto. Spoiler alert ... he’s not.

Pysyk has made a nice career for himself. No issue with that pick.

Most, teams and draft boards had Mitts right where we drafted him. It was absolutely not an off the wall crazy pick by any means. Yes, the Sabres rushed him. And his development has suffered. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the spot he was drafted at.

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6 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Don’t act like ALL teams didn’t have Reinhart as the #1 forward to pick in 2014. Spoiler alert... they did.

Don’t act like Zadorov is a better all around D man than Risto. Spoiler alert ... he’s not.

Pysyk has made a nice career for himself. No issue with that pick.

Most, teams and draft boards had Mitts right where we drafted him. It was absolutely not an off the wall crazy pick by any means. Yes, the Sabres rushed him. And his development has suffered. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the spot he was drafted at.

my biggest problem with the mittelstadt pick is that the sabres watched him fail miserably at the combine. they watched his no pull up performance and they knew he finished in the bottom for virtually every test but they still selected him. makes no sense to me. 

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And every professional athlete that I’ve heard comment about the whole pull up thing has said no pull ups, or one pull up, or 50 pull ups makes absolutely no difference in how he’s going to perform in the least, for a professional hockey team.

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1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

And every professional athlete that I’ve heard comment about the whole pull up thing has said no pull ups, or one pull up, or 50 pull ups makes absolutely no difference in how he’s going to perform in the least, for a professional hockey team.

If you go into a combine knowing you are going to be asked to do a pull up you either ignore it because it proves nothing or you take it as a personal challenge and you make damn sure that you show prospective teams that you have drive and ambition and set goals and practice til you get it. You don’t go through the motions. You power through just like you will if you’re picked. Thats what guys who don’t take the pull up challenge seriously like Casey prove. That they have none of that special ‘ it ‘ factor that some guys have.

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59 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

If you go into a combine knowing you are going to be asked to do a pull up you either ignore it because it proves nothing or you take it as a personal challenge and you make damn sure that you show prospective teams that you have drive and ambition and set goals and practice til you get it. You don’t go through the motions. You power through just like you will if you’re picked. Thats what guys who don’t take the pull up challenge seriously like Casey prove. That they have none of that special ‘ it ‘ factor that some guys have.

I don’t disagree with any of that… And it also doesn’t discount at all what I said in my post. That’s of course If that’s what you were intending with your reply. If not… Carry on 😬

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1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

I don’t disagree with any of that… And it also doesn’t discount at all what I said in my post. That’s of course If that’s what you were intending with your reply. If not… Carry on 😬

No I wasn’t discounting what you said but looking at it beyond the pullups themselves the players that do use it to motivate themselves are probably the type of guys that have the intangibles that Casey may not have. Who knows Casey may surprise everyone yet. I certainly hope so.

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14 hours ago, Taro T said:

Seeing as how the 2020-'21 league year is upon us, should probably start a new thread.

Pulled Brawndo's post from last week here as a starting point.

On 10/14/2020 at 11:57 AM, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

Quinn is 48th?

There is definitely recency bias going on here. Cozens is better than Perfetti and Holtz (sorry I don't care for Perfetti's style and Holtz isn't the 200ft player Cozens is). 

Quinn being 48th is hilarious. I would have taken Rossi but this makes it sound like Quinn was some 3rd rate talent. He's 100 percent better than Arthur Kaliyev in all aspects of the game, the only kinda close thing is their shots. Skating, passing, pace, back/forecheck, positioning, stickhandling, IQ, compete all go to Quinn. That is just one example. 

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16 hours ago, chloewoj said:

my biggest problem with the mittelstadt pick is that the sabres watched him fail miserably at the combine. they watched his no pull up performance and they knew he finished in the bottom for virtually every test but they still selected him. makes no sense to me. 

Who cares? Brendan Guhle crushed (CRUSHED) the combine and what's that done for him so far? These are hockey players, not body-builders.

Combines are worthless.
 

The problem was not a lack of pull-ups, it was a lack of time...they should have left him in college for another year, at least.

Send him to Rochester to start the year and put him on the top line, top PP, top PK and let him work...I think we still have something there, I really do.

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