How can the Sabres upgrade in goal?

[dudacek]

Statistically speaking, the target we've talked about who is really worth chasing is Kuemper

Both his fancy stats and his counting stats are right at the top of the league. His Goals Saved Above Average, which basically creates a statistically average goalie and ranks your performance against that.

https://goaliecoaches.com/gsaa-goalies-understanding-gsaa-hockey/

He was 4th with a score of +16.65

Raantta was 10th at +11.69 also significantly above average

Korpisalo was 31st at +1.14, slightly above average

Miller was 37th at -2.06, slightly below average

Fleury was 48th at -6.50, well below average

 

Ullmark was quite good, ranked 23rd at +5.39

Hutton was terrible at 58th out of 66 goalies at -10.99.

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by dudacek

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think the Sabres would, or should, unload 2 good players in order to bring in Kuemper (or any other goalie), and you're right that in my example, it would be tricky for them to figure out how to clear that last $2MM - $3Mm in cap space.  I suppose I was thinking of buying out Hutton or giving someone a pick or prospect to take him.

BTW, it sure would be nice right now to have that last $1MM of cap space that JB rolled over from last year, innit?  (To be fair, we could say the same for the $700K or so that they are overpaying Zemgus.)

The good news is that, under the new CBA, we can roll Botterill's overage over to next year if we wish.

And maybe with favourable arb decisions, and burying/buying out Hutts we can squeeze a guy like Korpisalo in without dumping anybody.

Maybe that's the move they have planned and they just need arbitration to be done before they can pull the trigger.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I'm also assuming  that if we're trading a 1st for a goalie that we're not talking about the scrap leftover UFA's. So, I assume if we're trading a 1st rd pick for a goalie then yes, I expect that player to push us into the playoffs, especially with our other additions.

A compressed schedule this year will demand that type player. Do you think Carey Price will play 60 games in a compressed schedule? The need for 2 quality goalies will be evident.

As far as who is available...for a 1st rd pick and maybe a sweetener, many could be available and if not then don't make a trade.

 

Name a goalie that you believe is available that will elevate this team and is worth a first round pick? I would certainly give up a first round pick for Tampa's starter and Dallas's Ben Bishop but those upper tier goalies are not on the market. I agree with the highlighted segment in your last sentence. So there is something we agree on. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Name a goalie that you believe is available that will elevate this team and is worth a first round pick? I would certainly give up a first round pick for Tampa's starter and Dallas's Ben Bishop but those upper tier goalies are not on the market. I agree with the highlighted segment in your last sentence. So there is something we agree on. 

Kuemper, at least the Kuemper of the past two years, is worth a 1st-rounder, but not one as high as ours will likely be.

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Kuemper, at least the Kuemper of the past two years, is worth a 1st-rounder, but not one as high as ours will likely be.

So what you are essentially saying is that he is not worth our first round pick. That's what I have been saying all along. As I stated in a prior post if I had an opportunity to acquire a goalie such as Tampa's Vasilevskiy or Dallas's Ben Bishop I would make the deal. 

[Shootica]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Kuemper, at least the Kuemper of the past two years, is worth a 1st-rounder, but not one as high as ours will likely be.

Make it a conditional 1st. 

If we make the playoffs, they get our 1st.  If we miss, they get either a '22 first or our 2nd and a small add.

[Broken Ankles]

Montour & Hutton (we retain $1M of Hutton's salary) to Arizona for Raanta.  Arizona moves Montour to Team X for a 2nd round pick.  

Out - $3.875M + $1.75M = $5.625

In - $4.25M

We could conceivably retain $1M from Montour to garner more value from a team with cap constraints. 

It's an overpay for one year of Raanta, but Arizona saves $2.5M and gets a second round selection.  The Sabres do not lose any 2021 draft picks. 

 

 

[I-90 W]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

The good news is that, under the new CBA, we can roll Botterill's overage over to next year if we wish.

And maybe with favourable arb decisions, and burying/buying out Hutts we can squeeze a guy like Korpisalo in without dumping anybody.

Maybe that's the move they have planned and they just need arbitration to be done before they can pull the trigger.

Hope so as it seems like this is the only type of move left. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Montour & Hutton (we retain $1M of Hutton's salary) to Arizona for Raanta.  Arizona moves Montour to Team X for a 2nd round pick.  

Out - $3.875M + $1.75M = $5.625

In - $4.25M

We could conceivably retain $1M from Montour to garner more value from a team with cap constraints. 

It's an overpay for one year of Raanta, but Arizona saves $2.5M and gets a second round selection.  The Sabres do not lose any 2021 draft picks. 

 

 

That's not an overpay for one year of Raantta. he's a capable goalie, like Montour is a capable defenceman. They are both pending UFA's.

I would be very surprised if Arizona gets a 2nd for Montour in this market.

I'd say why not Montour for Raantta, straight across? They save $500,000 and improve their team. We can probably afford to add $500,000 and it improves our team.

Edited October 20, 2020 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

Here's my long Kuemper trade

 

Buffalo trades a conditional 1st, Mitts, and Hutton to Arizona for Kuemper

The Conditions are as follows:
- If the Sabres make the playoffs in 2021 Arizona receives the 2021 1st Round Pick
-If there is no season or Buffalo misses the playoffs in 2021 the pick is pushed off a year
- If the Sabres make the 2022 Playoffs then Arizona receives the 2022 1st Round Pick
- If Buffalo misses the 2022 Playoffs and Kuemper appears in fewer than 41 games for the Sabres in 2022, Arizona receives a 2022 2nd Round Pick
- If Buffalo misses the 2022 Playoffs and Kuemper appears in 41 or more games then the 2022 1st Round Pick is Lottery Protected for the Top 10.
---- In this final scenario the 1st is moved to 2023 which would be unprotected if opted by the Sabres to keep a Top 10 pick.

[IKnowPhysics]

Salary cap hit about 300 bucks.  No movement clause.

[tom webster]

Patience my friends. Over half the league are expected to be at or within $1 million of the cap. Another quarter of them will have an internal cap. They are still not even sure how many games to prepare for. There is a lot in play here and teams are holding out hope for more leverage and the smart play is to wait it out, but have contingency plans.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

Name a goalie that you believe is available that will elevate this team and is worth a first round pick? I would certainly give up a first round pick for Tampa's starter and Dallas's Ben Bishop but those upper tier goalies are not on the market. I agree with the highlighted segment in your last sentence. So there is something we agree on. 

You are assuming that I am the one who brought up using a 1st rd pick AND that I agree to giving up a 1st for a goalie. Let me assure you that I don't and I was just adding to the convo.

My stand is that IF Adams ( I promise you I am not him) were to trade a 1st + for a goalie, it better be a very good one.

At the right price I think most players are available, whether to pay that price is the question.

So, I think we agree on more than you think.

 

[Broken Ankles]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That's not an overpay for one year of Raantta. he's a capable goalie, like Montour is a capable defenceman. They are both pending UFA's.

I would be very surprised if Arizona gets a 2nd for Montour in this market.

 

It's not the first time I've over-valued our resources.  Call me Darcy!

 Raantta is a capable goalie, but in the mind of Arizona, its a desperately needed cap dump.  What is good play from a back up going to bring the Yotes next season?   They are in serious regression mode.    Who else has both cap space and desire to take on a # 2 goalie at over $4M?  And more importantly, what is the going price for a #2?  J. Allen got a third.  Matt Murray is a #1 and yielded a second (albeit a very high second).  

Recent trades for a top 4 Defenseman (A. Martinez) have brought back 2 second round picks.  Scandella brought a second and a fourth to Montreal.   How can Montour not bring at least that?  

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think the Yotes want more for Keumper than a rental and $2.6 million savings

But let's say I'm wrong on that. The issue is in the bolded. It won't be a Kuemper/Montour trade at all

How are you dumping salary? Miller for a 5th? Risto at 50 per cent retained for a 3rd? Reinhart for Debrusk?

Do we really want to enter the season with Kuemper, but also relying on regular minutes from Irwin, Davidson and Borgen? Is that really a major upgrade?

Of course it's an upgrade, it's not even a question. Any one of our RHD for a good goalie and we are way better. It's third pair minutes being called into question vs that of a goalie who'll play 60 minutes, half the time. 

Montour, Miller, and Ristolainen are just ok hockey players! And don't worry, it won't be Risto that's moved. 

How long are we going to wait on Borgen? Let's get him in on the third pair. He's in his prime age already lol

Edited October 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, Shootica said:

I did a quick look across the league and from what I can see, the teams that could use an upgrade in net are us, Chicago, Carolina, and Edmonton. 

Arizona is the only team that from my perspective needs to move a goalie, both from a cap perspective and the fact that Adin Hill requires waivers next season.  Columbus and Dallas could move a goalie (Korpisalo or Bishop) if they're confident in the youth they have waiting and need cap space, but I'd bet that both of them stand pat.

It's been reported that the Blackhawks aren't interested in spending much money/assets on the goalie position while they aren't contending, so I only really see them going for a Craig Anderson type.  Edmonton just re-signed Craig Smith so that may be the group they're going with even though it doesn't look pretty.

That leaves us and Carolina in the goalie market, and Arizona needing to move a goalie.  If Carolina makes an upgrade, they need to trade one of their own to make space.

So to me, there's two likely outcomes:

1) We trade for Kuemper/Raanta and either waive Hutton or trade him desperately with retained money.

2) Carolina trades for Kuemper/Raanta leaving us to trade for Reimer or Mrazek.

Either way, the team we'd be getting a goalie from would have no interest in Hutton.  Which shouldn't be much of a shock, but it's worth mentioning.  And either way, we most likely have to find a trade partner for one of our right shot defensemen (or Reinhart I guess) to clear the cap space to make it work.

Can we not dump Hutton in rochester to save cap?

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

The good news is that, under the new CBA, we can roll Botterill's overage over to next year if we wish.

And maybe with favourable arb decisions, and burying/buying out Hutts we can squeeze a guy like Korpisalo in without dumping anybody.

Maybe that's the move they have planned and they just need arbitration to be done before they can pull the trigger.

That's what I was hoping

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Kuemper, at least the Kuemper of the past two years, is worth a 1st-rounder, but not one as high as ours will likely be.

So we just protect it. 

Hypothetical, if we traded a first for Kuemper and made the playoffs, would anyone care? Would the trade be worth it, then? If the answer is yes, my opinion is the moves we've already made mandate taking that risk. 

It's a draft pick. Let's make the playoffs. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Shootica]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Can we not dump Hutton in rochester to save cap?

We can.  Saves us $1.075M on the cap if I remember correctly.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

11 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

It's not the first time I've over-valued our resources.  Call me Darcy!

 Raantta is a capable goalie, but in the mind of Arizona, its a desperately needed cap dump.  What is good play from a back up going to bring the Yotes next season?   They are in serious regression mode.    Who else has both cap space and desire to take on a # 2 goalie at over $4M?  And more importantly, what is the going price for a #2?  J. Allen got a third.  Matt Murray is a #1 and yielded a second (albeit a very high second).  

Recent trades for a top 4 Defenseman (A. Martinez) have brought back 2 second round picks.  Scandella brought a second and a fourth to Montreal.   How can Montour not bring at least that?  

J. Allen cost a 3rd and a 7th, just for info sake. Not that it matters much.

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

So what you are essentially saying is that he is not worth our first round pick. That's what I have been saying all along. As I stated in a prior post if I had an opportunity to acquire a goalie such as Tampa's Vasilevskiy or Dallas's Ben Bishop I would make the deal. 

Not "worth" it only by market value. Why not consider actual value? Why wouldn't it be worth paying a protected first to bring in what very well could be the missing piece in our pursuit of the playoffs?

If we acquired a goalie better than Ullmark who played the lion's share of the games, do you deem that worth a first? Forget about the market. KA should trust his talent analysis and pay the price required to bring in the goalie he wants. Obviously it's not going to be something exorbitant like 2 firsts. 

Personally I'm much more willing to live with the scenario where we do everything in our power to be good (and we're so close), and fail, than coming this close and going into the season, willingly, with a major hole. 

- - - 

It's not like when Tim Murray overpaid for the guys he wanted - we weren't ready. We have a top 6 good enough, right now, to compete for a cup: at least that's my view. And even if we didn't, there's no sense paying Hall 8 mil for one year, with nothing guaranteed after (ESPECIALLY if we go one or two years on Sam's deal), and taking on all that uncertainty, if not to maximize the coming season. 

Hutton isn't an option based on the results we've seen. That's easy analysis. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Thorny

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So we just protect it. 

Hypothetical, if we traded a first for Kuemper and made the playoffs, would anyone care? Would the trade be worth it, then? If the answer is yes, my opinion is the moves we've already made mandate taking that risk. 

It's a draft pick. Let's make the playoffs. 

And yet some argue about how bad our prospect pool is.

I'd like to make the playoffs too but as someone pointed out recent trades (some of which I wish we were in on) I don't think it's necessary to pay that much.

[Shootica]

If we trade for one of Arizona's goalies, they are not taking Hutton. Full stop.

The whole reason the Yotes are trading Kuemper or Raanta is because they have Adin Hill waiting in the wings to be their backup next year, and to try to recoup some draft capital while cutting cost.  They have no use for Hutton or his salary.

If we trade for one of their goalies (and honestly, I think we will), Hutton is either getting waived or bought out.  And we'll need to look elsewhere to get the necessary cap space.

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

And yet some argue about how bad our prospect pool is.

I'd like to make the playoffs too but as someone pointed out recent trades (some of which I wish we were in on) I don't think it's necessary to pay that much.

That's awesome but it also avoids my hypothetical question

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

 

Recent trades for a top 4 Defenseman (A. Martinez) have brought back 2 second round picks.  Scandella brought a second and a fourth to Montreal.   How can Montour not bring at least that?  

COVID happened. The market for $4 million defenceman died.

Ryan Murray went for a 5th

Nate Schmidt for a 3rd

Marcus Nuutivara for Cliff Pu

Olli Maatta for Brad Morrison

 

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, Shootica said:

If we trade for one of Arizona's goalies, they are not taking Hutton. Full stop.

The whole reason the Yotes are trading Kuemper or Raanta is because they have Adin Hill waiting in the wings to be their backup next year, and to try to recoup some draft capital while cutting cost.  They have no use for Hutton or his salary.

If we trade for one of their goalies (and honestly, I think we will), Hutton is either getting waived or bought out.  And we'll need to look elsewhere to get the necessary cap space.

Agree, and it's why I keep suggesting dumping a RHD for pennies on the dollar to make space

 

... we don't want them playing big minutes. 

Consider the amount of minutes we *should* be playing them for, and that is the asset value we'd be sacrificing to upgrade in net. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Thorny