Sabres, 8th overall pick: Jack Quinn

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He just doesn't have that get better or die attitude and that type of player has been prevalent in Buffalo for a long time. 

Spot on. I have a similar vibe regarding Reinhart.

As much as, if not more than, anything, I am convinced that that specific "skill," if you will, is what is needed to be an effective NHL player (or pro athlete, generally). What complicates matters is that I think most players who lack that "skill" are not even aware that they lack it - in fact, they think they have it. But they don't. They don't know that they don't know.

[SDS]

9 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Spot on. I have a similar vibe regarding Reinhart.

As much as, if not more than, anything, I am convinced that that specific "skill," if you will, is what is needed to be an effective NHL player (or pro athlete, generally). What complicates matters is that I think most players who lack that "skill" are not even aware that they lack it - in fact, they think they have it. But they don't. They don't know that they don't know.

I don’t know if you are a soccer fan, but Anson Dorance, the famous women’s soccer coach at the University of North Carolina, says exactly the same thing. He gets the elite of the elite. But girls Who want to play with him tell him all the time how competitive they are. He says he laughs at them and tells them they don’t know what it means to be competitive.

[LGR4GM]

 

[Ruff Around The Edges]

So based on the overwhelming negativity here about this pick does anyone take joy in Craig Button comparing Jack Quinn to David Pastrnak?

[Trettioåtta]

Just now, Ruff Around The Edges said:

So based on the overwhelming negativity here about this pick does anyone take joy in Craig Button comparing Jack Quinn to David Pastrnak?

Button really likes Quinn. He had him pegged at 7th overall I think

[Ruff Around The Edges]

3 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

Button really likes Quinn. He had him pegged at 7th overall I think

He really did. Now I must admit, Ive only watching highlights online and read a lot about these players but if Button is 80 percent right I think we will all be thrilled with this pick down the line.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

So based on the overwhelming negativity here about this pick does anyone take joy in Craig Button comparing Jack Quinn to David Pastrnak?

Of course.

The negativity stems more from the perception of what we missed out on more so than the quality of the player selected. It's a draft, people lol - if we aren't going to spend hours over-reacting to picks like we know what we are talking about why*did*we*spend*hours*and*hours*debating*and*typing*about*these*guys*as*if*our*opinions*mattered*beforehand*?

It's one or the other lol

[IKnowPhysics]

I keep coming back to Rossi's height and how it may have factored into the decision.  He's listed as 5'9" and the perception is that he's just about done growing.  But it's possible that he's shorter than that because of height inflation, and without a combine to do independent measurements, he could well be two inches shorter than that.  His listed 5'9" is already two standard deviations (2.09") down from the mean NHL height (6'1"), which means that Rossi is shorter than at least ~97.8% of the NHL.

Non-analytically, there's also the old saying: "You can teach them to skate and you can teach them to shoot, but you can't teach them to be 6'4" 220lbs."  And regarding anecodotal evidence, scoring superiority in the OHL doesn't 100% translate to the NHL for smaller players.  See: Corey Locke (5'9"); Luciano Aquino (5'9').  But there are many examples from 2000 and later of OHL success translating just fine, even for shorter players.  See Alex DeBrincat (5'7") in CHI among several others.

But in some analytical models, small size adds uncertainty to Rossi's ability to translate his OHL success to the NHL.  In this post, we look at player size and production.  We were missing MoneyPuck's 2015 analysis, which I was able to find today using the Internet Wayback Machine.

Scoring in the CHL:

Scoring in the CHL correlates to NHL success- if you can't score in the CHL, you won't be good in the NHL.

Quote

CHL              
Points/GM    NHLers    Population    % Success
[0, .25]                       15       1,269    1%
[.25, .5]                       40          962    4%
[.5, .75]                       35          502    7%
[.75, .9]                       30          223    13%
[.9, 1.1]                       44          187    24%
[1.1, 1.3]                       40          101    40%
[>1.3]                       65          111    59%
Total                    269       3,355    8%

But if you're short, even if you score in the CHL, you have a smaller chance of success than taller players that score just as much (three representations of the same data):

Quote

CHL < 5'10      5'10     5'11     6'0     Points/GM NHLers Population % Success NHLers Population % Success NHLers Population % Success NHLers Population % Success [0, .25]          -        73 0.0%          -      129 0.0%             -      167 0.0%           1    253 0.4% [.25, .5]          -        81 0.0%           2    116 1.7%           6    154 3.9%           5    211 2.4% [.5, .75]           1      46 2.2%           4      64 6.3%           5      83 6.0%           6    115 5.2% [.75, .9]           1      27 3.7%           3      25 12.0%           3      34 8.8%           6      43 14.0% [.9, 1.1]           4      20 20.0%           1      25 4.0%           7      30 23.3%          13      44 29.5% [1.1, 1.3]           2         9 22.2%           1      14 7.1%           9      24 37.5%          10      19 52.6% [>1.3]         -           5 0.0%           7      14 50.0%         12      20 60.0%          16      25 64.0%             8    261 3.1%         18    387 4.7%         42    512 8.2%          57    710 8.0%

CHL 6'1     6'2     >6'2     Points/GM NHLers Population % Success NHLers Population % Success NHLers Population % Success [0, .25]           3    236 1.3%           5    211 2.4%           6    201 3.0% [.25, .5]           8    158 5.1%           9    123 7.3%         10    119 8.4% [.5, .75]           8      91 8.8%           6      54 11.1%           5      49 10.2% [.75, .9]           7      32 21.9%           8      42 19.0%           2      20 10.0% [.9, 1.1]           5      26 19.2%           8      25 32.0%           6      17 35.3% [1.1, 1.3]           7      17 41.2%           6      11 54.5%           5         7 71.4% [>1.3]         11      21 52.4%         10      14 71.4%           9      11 81.8%           49    581 8.4%         52    480 10.8%         43    424 10

In Rossi's demographics (<5'10"), 0-of-5 (0%) players listed shorter than 5'10" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  In Quinn's demographics (6'1"), 11-of-21 (52.4%) players listed at 6'1" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  However, Rossi's analysis suffers from small sample size (n=5).

In a draft game where teams try to maximize the odds of NHL success, Rossi's risk profile (established-and-extremely-high-stats and risky short height) is simply a different flavor than Quinn's risk profile (good-but-less-established-stats and mean height).

It's possible that the the scouting staff looked at this and settled on the old adage: they could coach and develop Jack Quinn to Marco Rossi's level despite the uncertainty in his stats without taking on the risk of Rossi's small size.

 

 

 

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey Mittelstadt has lots of talent. My biggest problem with him isn't his level of skill but his level of heart. He just doesn't have that get better or die attitude and that type of player has been prevalent in Buffalo for a long time. 

Only new Younglings coach Sith Appert deals in absolutes. Perhaps he can find new ways to motivate Mitts.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

I keep coming back to Rossi's height and how it may have factored into the decision.  He's listed as 5'9" and the perception is that he's just about done growing.  But it's possible that he's shorter than that because of height inflation, and without a combine to do independent measurements, he could well be two inches shorter than that.  His listed 5'9" is already two standard deviations (2.09") down from the mean NHL height (6'1"), which means that Rossi is shorter than at least ~97.8% of the NHL.

Non-analytically, there's also the old saying: "You can teach them to skate and you can teach them to shoot, but you can't teach them to be 6'4" 220lbs."  And regarding anecodotal evidence, scoring superiority in the OHL doesn't 100% translate to the NHL for smaller players.  See: Corey Locke (5'9"); Luciano Aquino (5'9').  But there are many examples from 2000 and later of OHL success translating just fine, even for shorter players.  See Alex DeBrincat (5'7") in CHI among several others.

But in some analytical models, small size adds uncertainty to Rossi's ability to translate his OHL success to the NHL.  In this post, we look at player size and production.  We were missing MoneyPuck's 2015 analysis, which I was able to find today using the Internet Wayback Machine.

Scoring in the CHL:

Scoring in the CHL correlates to NHL success- if you can't score in the CHL, you won't be good in the NHL.

But if you're short, even if you score in the CHL, you have a smaller chance of success than taller players that score just as much (three representations of the same data):

In Rossi's demographics (<5'10"), 0-of-5 (0%) players listed shorter than 5'10" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  In Quinn's demographics (6'1"), 11-of-21 (52.4%) players listed at 6'1" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  However, Rossi's analysis suffers from small sample size (n=5).

In a draft game where teams try to maximize the odds of NHL success, Rossi's risk profile (established-and-extremely-high-stats and risky short height) is simply a different flavor than Quinn's risk profile (good-but-less-established-stats and mean height).

It's possible that the the scouting staff looked at this and settled on the old adage: they could coach and develop Jack Quinn to Marco Rossi's level despite the uncertainty in his stats without taking on the risk of Rossi's small size.

My immediate question is have there been 5'9" players scoring at Rossi's rate and how big is that pool? I bet it is shockingly small, no pun intended. 

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Spot on. I have a similar vibe regarding Reinhart.

As much as, if not more than, anything, I am convinced that that specific "skill," if you will, is what is needed to be an effective NHL player (or pro athlete, generally). What complicates matters is that I think most players who lack that "skill" are not even aware that they lack it - in fact, they think they have it. But they don't. They don't know that they don't know.

The guy who has improved his scoring every year in the league, that stayed after and worked with ROR on his shot for years, and who has drastically improved his skating... you get a similar vibe to flabby, slow, can't do anything still in the NHL Mitts? I don't see it. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

I keep coming back to Rossi's height and how it may have factored into the decision.  He's listed as 5'9" and the perception is that he's just about done growing.  But it's possible that he's shorter than that because of height inflation, and without a combine to do independent measurements, he could well be two inches shorter than that.  His listed 5'9" is already two standard deviations (2.09") down from the mean NHL height (6'1"), which means that Rossi is shorter than at least ~97.8% of the NHL.

Non-analytically, there's also the old saying: "You can teach them to skate and you can teach them to shoot, but you can't teach them to be 6'4" 220lbs."  And regarding anecodotal evidence, scoring superiority in the OHL doesn't 100% translate to the NHL for smaller players.  See: Corey Locke (5'9"); Luciano Aquino (5'9').  But there are many examples from 2000 and later of OHL success translating just fine, even for shorter players.  See Alex DeBrincat (5'7") in CHI among several others.

But in some analytical models, small size adds uncertainty to Rossi's ability to translate his OHL success to the NHL.  In this post, we look at player size and production.  We were missing MoneyPuck's 2015 analysis, which I was able to find today using the Internet Wayback Machine.

Scoring in the CHL:

Scoring in the CHL correlates to NHL success- if you can't score in the CHL, you won't be good in the NHL.

But if you're short, even if you score in the CHL, you have a smaller chance of success than taller players that score just as much (three representations of the same data):

In Rossi's demographics (<5'10"), 0-of-5 (0%) players listed shorter than 5'10" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  In Quinn's demographics (6'1"), 11-of-21 (52.4%) players listed at 6'1" that scored >1.3PPG in the CHL went on to play >200 NHL games.  However, Rossi's analysis suffers from small sample size (n=5).

In a draft game where teams try to maximize the odds of NHL success, Rossi's risk profile (established-and-extremely-high-stats and risky short height) is simply a different flavor than Quinn's risk profile (good-but-less-established-stats and mean height).

It's possible that the the scouting staff looked at this and settled on the old adage: they could coach and develop Jack Quinn to Marco Rossi's level despite the uncertainty in his stats without taking on the risk of Rossi's small size.

My problem with this is that Rossi didn't score 1.3ppg, he scored 2.143ppg which is astronomically higher than the threshold listed. How many player of any height reached that? I know in the OHL in the last decade the only one is McDavid. This analysis is flawed because Rossi's cohort isn't other players in that 1.3-1.6 range of the same height which I would bet money accounts for most if not all of those 5 players mentioned. His 2.143 is almost a full point higher than the start of that category. 

 

You mention Corey Locke which is an interesting player except that he was drafted in 2003. This so long and far removed from what the NHL is today that I don't think he counts in the same cohort as Rossi even though I think you are looking at someone that statistically profiles close to Rossi. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Hank]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

 

It's interesting that it coincides with the talent of his receivers.

I know this is the wrong thread,  but...

I've been a supporter of Allen from day one. His performance has wildly exceeded the already lofty expectations i had for him. But I don't think many people truly appreciate the impact Diggs has had on our offense. It's incredible. Not positive but I think you would agree. 

[miles]

Why does it matter if he is short. He is huge muscle wise and is 2 ppg is crazy. 

 

Anyway I follow both the wild and the Sabres and I'm glad at least one team got him. 

If jack#2 really is a top notch scorer for the sabres in 2 years that is great, but it doesn't help at all now.

 

Rossi is a #3 center ready for the nhl now. Probably #2 center in 1 or 2 years. The sabres need goal scorers more than anything, well no, they need everything still. 

 

Maybe this is what the wild planned for. Give the sabres a good #2 center so they dont take rossi? Without staal I dont see the sabres not taking him

Edited October 7, 2020 by miles

[IKnowPhysics]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My immediate question is have there been 5'9" players scoring at Rossi's rate and how big is that pool? I bet it is shockingly small, no pun intended. 

 

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My problem with this is that Rossi didn't score 1.3ppg, he scored 2.143ppg which is astronomically higher than the threshold listed. How many player of any height reached that? I know in the OHL in the last decade the only one is McDavid. This analysis is flawed because Rossi's cohort isn't other players in that 1.3-1.6 range of the same height which I would bet money accounts for most if not all of those 5 players mentioned. His 2.143 is almost a full point higher than the start of that category. 

Both absolutely true statements.  Even at 1.3+PPG, the sample size of Rossi's height cohorts is exceedingly small.  And, of course, at 2.143PPG it would theoretically be even smaller.  It begs the question of what's more important: size or point production?  Even studying Rossi's future performance may not be able to answer that, since he'll be sample size n=1.

If you extrapolate the available trends, it seems like the CHL point production correlation is stronger than the size correlation, but there's uncertainty there.  Rossi is a unique player with a unique risk profile.

Edited October 7, 2020 by IKnowPhysics

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

 

Both absolutely true statements.  Even at 1.3+PPG, the sample size of Rossi's height cohorts is exceedingly small.  And, of course, at 2.143PPG it would theoretically be even smaller.  It begs the question of what's more important: size or point production?  Even studying Rossi's future performance may not be able to answer that, since he'll be sample size n=1.

If you extrapolate the available trends, it seems like the CHL point production correlation is stronger than the size correlation, but there's uncertainty there.  Rossi is a unique player with a unique risk profile.

I'd agree.

I would say that Quinn at 6'1" with his production does profile out to a top 6 player which is nice to see. 

[DarthEbriate]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My problem with this is that Rossi didn't score 1.3ppg, he scored 2.143ppg which is astronomically higher than the threshold listed. How many player of any height reached that? I know in the OHL in the last decade the only one is McDavid. This analysis is flawed because Rossi's cohort isn't other players in that 1.3-1.6 range of the same height which I would bet money accounts for most if not all of those 5 players mentioned. His 2.143 is almost a full point higher than the start of that category. 

 

You mention Corey Locke which is an interesting player except that he was drafted in 2003. This so long and far removed from what the NHL is today that I don't think he counts in the same cohort as Rossi even though I think you are looking at someone that statistically profiles close to Rossi. 

If memory serves, Locke was also an overager when he did it.

[Drag0nDan]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

Quinn isn’t soft at all.  Not especially physical, average-ish, but plays a committed 200ft game, he goes to the dirty areas.  Watch him play, he isn’t soft. He isn’t a perimeter guy.

Oh I meant rossi. But who knows. They're 19 year old kids

[IKnowPhysics]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

If memory serves, Locke was also an overager when he did it.

Reports on Locke also identified several weaknesses that aren't reported for Rossi: slow feet, subpar defensive side, and weak strength in puck battles.  It's not a strong comparison outside of height.  But that's the trouble here: small sample size and few comparables.

[SwampD]

33 minutes ago, Hank said:

I know this is the wrong thread,  but...

I've been a supporter of Allen from day one. His performance has wildly exceeded the already lofty expectations i had for him. But I don't think many people truly appreciate the impact Diggs has had on our offense. It's incredible. Not positive but I think you would agree. 

My point was that he wasn't as bad as LGR would have had us believe when he entered the league and other good QBs have improve as much, only they did it not as the starter. The Mahomeses are the exception.

 

EDIT: I mean, unless you mean that the Bills having a good QB is the exception, then yes, Allen is the exception.

Edited October 7, 2020 by SwampD

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

I don’t know if you are a soccer fan, but Anson Dorance, the famous women’s soccer coach at the University of North Carolina, says exactly the same thing. He gets the elite of the elite. But girls Who want to play with him tell him all the time how competitive they are. He says he laughs at them and tells them they don’t know what it means to be competitive.

I am a soccer fan. Not to the point of knowing who the women's soccer coach at UNC is, though. 

Also, not for nothing, it gives me pause to read that he "laughs" at uber-elite athletes who claim to be competitive. In my mind, yes, indeed, they presumably all are quite competitive, some incredibly so. It's just a question of degree. And, sure, there is much they must learn about what it actually means to compete at the highest levels of D-1 soccer. But don't laugh at 'em, coach.

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The guy who has improved his scoring every year in the league, that stayed after and worked with ROR on his shot for years, and who has drastically improved his skating... you get a similar vibe to flabby, slow, can't do anything still in the NHL Mitts? I don't see it. 

Fair. I'm not lumping them together. It's hard for me to pinpoint - it really is just a feeling I get off Reinhart. It's not even a mark against him - I just think he's inherently a bit self-satisfied with things, at times. 

And I say that as a professed slug and couch potato.

[SDS]

10 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I am a soccer fan. Not to the point of knowing who the women's soccer coach at UNC is, though. 

Also, not for nothing, it gives me pause to read that he "laughs" at uber-elite athletes who claim to be competitive. In my mind, yes, indeed, they presumably all are quite competitive, some incredibly so. It's just a question of degree. And, sure, there is much they must learn about what it actually means to compete at the highest levels of D-1 soccer. But don't laugh at 'em, coach.

He’s probably the most famous soccer coach men’s or women’s in the country. He did coach the women’s team to a World Cup back in the 90s.

and you may have misunderstood me. He laughs at the typical player that comes to him claiming how competitive they are. Those are the ones he laughs at, because they don’t know what competitive means at the top. He sets up a vicious dog eat dog environment where if you are not striving to beat the person in front of you then you’ll be eaten alive.

He has some thing like 22 national championships in 37 years.

 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

So based on the overwhelming negativity here about this pick does anyone take joy in Craig Button comparing Jack Quinn to David Pastrnak?

Not really.  The talking heads do stuff like this with every top ten pick, every year.  This one reminds me of Ray Bourque, that one reminds me of Pat Kane, blah blah blah.

[That Aud Smell]

17 minutes ago, SDS said:

He’s probably the most famous soccer coach men’s or women’s in the country. He did coach the women’s team to a World Cup back in the 90s.

and you may have misunderstood me. He laughs at the typical player that comes to him claiming how competitive they are. Those are the ones he laughs at, because they don’t know what competitive means at the top. He sets up a vicious dog eat dog environment where if you are not striving to beat the person in front of you then you’ll be eaten alive.

He has some thing like 22 national championships in 37 years.

 

More famous than that simian-looking muhfugger Bruce Arena?!

I don't think I misunderstood you; quite the contrary, really. His program sounds like it provides quite an experience for the players. His success speaks for itself, I suppose.

Edit: Bruce Arena could be the long lost uncle of Evan Rodrigues.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Drag0nDan said:

Oh I meant rossi. But who knows. They're 19 year old kids

Oh, Rossi has lots of jam.  A very gritty, borderline dirty, player.

[dudacek]

I think this pick was very much about projection.

I think the Sabres believe Quinn Is a boy who has more room to grow than Rossi, who is physically already a man, and much farther along in his development curve.

And I think they believe he is a more likely to achieve his potential than Perfetti, who is slighter, slower and doesnt seem to drive himself as hard.

I’m not saying I agree, I’m just laying it out there for those struggling with the ‘why’