Jump to content

Signing the RFAs - the Key to this off-season


GASabresIUFAN

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

We better hope that Evolving Wild doesn’t continue its streak of being very close on Its Contract Projections 

 

If you look at Reinhart's 5 year projection on there they look a lot more reasonable.

Only one that seems too high to me is Kahun, but maybe I'm just underrating him.

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

^what's Reinhart at? 

8 x 8.75M or so.

Or 5 x 6.9M.

  • Thanks (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Shootica said:

If you look at Reinhart's 5 year projection on there they look a lot more reasonable.

Only one that seems too high to me is Kahun, but maybe I'm just underrating him.

8 x 8.75M or so.

Or 5 x 6.9M.

Pre COVID projections and probably not good for much.  I think the complete economic environment is changed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

Pre COVID projections and probably not good for much.  I think the complete economic environment is changed.

I think cap hits will be lower, but not extravagantly lower.  If anything, I think it results in more 1 or 2 year contracts with players who otherwise might get long-term deals.  If I remember right, Jared McCann's projected contract at Evolving Hockey was around $3.125 and he signed for $2.94. Tiny sample size but it's in the same ballpark.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I think cap hits will be lower, but not extravagantly lower.  If anything, I think it results in more 1 or 2 year contracts with players who otherwise might get long-term deals.  If I remember right, Jared McCann's projected contract at Evolving Hockey was around $3.125 and he signed for $2.94. Tiny sample size but it's in the same ballpark.

Sorry if you don’t, but do you know how many years the projection was for?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/19/2020 at 6:51 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we pay 8 mill to a 55/60 pt scorer in these economic times KA should be fired.  We overpaid Skinner because we “had” to.  I’m sorry but Reinhart doesn’t do anything well enough to justify that kind of number.  He doesn’t score enough goals, doesn’t create enough and isn’t very fast.  Nice 6-7 mill player but beyond that is a mistake 

I generally agree, but I think that they will end up agreeing on a long-term deal in the sixes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think KA will try do what is necessary to try to keep the team together and make the budget work.  SR has as much incentive to take a short deal right now as the Sabres so in giving one out.  Both sides are likely interested in kicking the can down the road a year or two hoping for a better economic situation.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think KA will try do what is necessary to try to keep the team together and make the budget work.  SR has as much incentive to take a short deal right now as the Sabres so in giving one out.  Both sides are likely interested in kicking the can down the road a year or two hoping for a better economic situation.    

Sabres shouldn't really be interested in "kicking the can down the road" 1 or two years with Sam. 

If it's one year, he's an arbitration award from UFA. If it's two, he's UFA upon completion. Sign him for 5 or more (yes please on your 5 x 6.5) or trade him (please no). 

Edited by Thorny
  • Like (+1) 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/18/2020 at 3:29 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have 8 significant RFAs; 5 of which are current key players for the team (numbers from Capfriendly)

1) Samson Reinhart - Q Offer 3.75 w Arb rights - 1st Line RW;  Arbitration case:  4 of 5 season w 20 goals plus; 3 straight 50+ points seasons

2) Montour - Q offer 3.525 w Arb rights - Top 4 type D; Arbitration case: 32 and 35 pt seasons before playing wrong side last season.  Still was a +13 on a bad team.

3) Ullmark - Q offer 1.325 w Arb rights - Starting goalie; 2.69 gaa and .915 sv % were career bests and solidly mid-level of starting NHL goalies

4) Olofsson - Q offer 700K w Arb rights - Top 2 line LW; 42 pts in 54 games as a rookie; 2nd in rookie goals and points. Projects as a 30 goal scorer in a full season

5) Kahun - Q offer 832,500 w Arb rights - Likely 2nd line RW; 2 NHL seasons saw him scorer 12+ goals and 30+ points each season.  @ 100K per point, that's a $3 mill player. 

The other 3 are important depth players or kids fighting for roster spots

6) Lazar - Q offer 700K w Arb rights - 4th line center or LW

7) Mittelstadt - Q offer 832,500 - Possible 3rd line center or W

8.) Thompson - Q offer 832,500 - Possible/likely 3rd line RW

IMHO how KA manages the cost if the 5 key RFAs will make or break our off-season.  The cheaper he gets these guys this off-season helps maximize our actual $ and cap $ to improve the team.  However, not locking up Reinhart and Olofsson to long-term could have serious negative consequences long-term.  

Back in April the Athletic projected the contracts for our key RFAs as follows. (please try not to laugh at the 1st 3 deals)

Reinhart 8yrs @ 8.744 per season; VO 4 years @ 4.977; Montour 3 years @ 4.802; Kahun and 2 yr @ 2.912.  He also estimated that Ullmark gets a deal similar to CBJ's Korpisalo at 2 yrs @ 2.8.  I think only the Ullmark and Kahun deals speak of reality.  The rest are way over inflated IMHO given COVID, the recession and about half the NHL going to austerity measures.

Here is how big the difference can be.  The Q offers to the 5 total 10.1325 million, but with arbitration rights that number is unrealistic on the low end.  Using the Athletic numbers the 5 RFAs would cost 24.235 million.  Given our current 47 mill in cap obligations and internal cap we can't afford those numbers and field a team. That number is also unrealistic given the economic reality in the NHL right now.  The truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I think if KA can get all 5 on 2 year deals I think he'd do well to come in at around 18.8 (6.5 for SR, 2.8 for LU, 2.5 for DK, 3 for VO and 4 for BM).  Anything under these numbers would be a steal.  I like the idea of 2 year deals because it add some stability without obligating the team forever, especially when I believe that all but Reinhart (and to a lesser extent VO) are replaceable if they want to much money. 

If I'm KA, I'm re-signing Montour and trading Risto, but time and market conditions will tell if he agrees.  Managing the RFAs well should enable the team to afford to re-sign Larsson and maybe also had another middle six forward.    

Manage the RFAs poorly and we'll be a status quo team hoping that improvement is a result of the development of our kids and the rebound in Skinner's scoring touch.

 

 

 

Why would I laugh at 4 years for $4.9M for Olofsson? You're not getting him signed for cheaper than Nikita Gusev signed for ($4.5M).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am I the only one that's not really opposed to giving Olofsson a one year bridge, putting Skinner back on the first line, and making sure that Olofsson wasn't totally a product of Eichel at 5v5 this year?

Truthfully I would've done this with both him and Reinhart this season to get a better sense of their value, but that's a conversation for another time.

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Shootica said:

Am I the only one that's not really opposed to giving Olofsson a one year bridge, putting Skinner back on the first line, and making sure that Olofsson wasn't totally a product of Eichel at 5v5 this year?

Truthfully I would've done this with both him and Reinhart this season to get a better sense of their value, but that's a conversation for another time.

I want VO to sign a bridge, similar to what Reinhart did.

Guy has scored 20 NHL goals.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...