Brandon Montour: what should we do?

[dudacek]

The Sabres paid a significant price for Montour — a late first and Brendan Guhle — who missed the start of the season with injury and never seemed to carve a defined role last year.

His $3.4 million bridge contract is over. At 26, he is arbitration-eligible and one year away from unrestricted free agency. The team needs to decide if it is going to try for a long-term deal, risk arbitration, or flip him.

Some you-should-knows:

• Offensively, Montour has been a poor 1st-pairing/great 2nd-pairing, ranking 57th in the NHL over the past 3 years with 85 points in 215 games. He is 54th in even-strength points.
• He has been a good 2nd-pair in terms of ice time, ranking 79th in the NHL at 20:59 a game.
• His Corsi was outstanding in his 20 games under Housley, and poor under Krueger, with 52-54 per cent offensive zone starts under both coaches.
• He ranked 2nd in ice time among Sabre defencemen last year and his +13 was easily the best total posted by a Sabre in a decade.
• His even-strength production (16 in 54 games) was slightly behind Dahlin (21 in 59) and Risto (23 in 69)
• Capfriendly lists these players as comparables: Josh Morrissey 8/$6.2, Ryan Murray 2/$4.6, Cody Ceci 1/$4.5, Leddy 7/$5.5, DeKeyser 6/$5
• More wide-ranging comparables here: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense/ufa?limits=points-19-41

What should Adams do with him?

[Zamboni]

Keep him until UFA unless a team offers up a piece the Sabres need. 

[In The Buff]

Can't wait for the 3rd installment titled: Brandon Montour: What Have We Done? 😛

[Kruppstahl]

He's a zero hockey player as some of us pointed out the day he was acquired.

Will be interesting test to see how thing are going to go in the near term with regard to him.  

Does the current administration value him? At all?  

 

 

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

He's a zero hockey player as some of us pointed out the day he was acquired.

Will be interesting test to see how thing are going to go in the near term with regard to him.  

Does the current administration value him? At all?  

 

 

As in useless/no value?

He’s got obvious skill and respectable production, both here and with Anaheim.

Care to elaborate?

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I think he is okay, but not real long term good.  I think if used in the right situation he will be good for the Sabres.

I think 3 x $5 would be fine to see what happens.

[Gatorman0519]

He will go to Boston or Tampa and become a stud lol.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres paid a significant price for Montour — a late first and Brendan Guhle — who missed the start of the season with injury and never seemed to carve a defined role last year.

His $3.4 million bridge contract is over. At 26, he is arbitration-eligible and one year away from unrestricted free agency. The team needs to decide if it is going to try for a long-term deal, risk arbitration, or flip him.

Some you-should-knows:

• Offensively, Montour has been a poor 1st-pairing/great 2nd-pairing, ranking 57th in the NHL over the past 3 years with 85 points in 215 games. He is 54th in even-strength points.
• He has been a good 2nd-pair in terms of ice time, ranking 79th in the NHL at 20:59 a game.
• His Corsi was outstanding in his 20 games under Housley, and poor under Krueger, with 52-54 per cent offensive zone starts under both coaches.
• He ranked 2nd in ice time among Sabre defencemen last year and his +13 was easily the best total posted by a Sabre in a decade.
• His even-strength production (16 in 54 games) was slightly behind Dahlin (21 in 59) and Risto (23 in 69)
• Capfriendly lists these players as comparables: Josh Morrissey 8/$6.2, Ryan Murray 2/$4.6, Cody Ceci 1/$4.5, Leddy 7/$5.5, DeKeyser 6/$5
• More wide-ranging comparables here: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense/ufa?limits=points-19-41

What should Adams do with him?

How would you compare Montour's game with Collin Miller's? Is there an overlap in style of play? 

I like Montour as a 2nd pairing defenseman and not as a first pairing. As you noted in one of your bullet points it seems that under Krueger his production declined. The coach needs to reassess and adjust to the player. I make the same judgment as to how the coach handled Skinner. There should be more accentuating the talent/asset and less fretting about the deficiency. 

[dudacek]

I think there is some overlap in Miller and Montour. I think Colin is a bit better on the point, Brandon in the D zone and in transition, but they both like having the puck on their stick and lean to the offence.

I think Colin is ideally placed on your 3rd pair with significant PP minutes. I think Brandon needs to be used as the puck-mover on your second pair with a reliable defence-first type, with lots of even strength ice time, with a bit of PP and PK sprinkled in.

So they can both operate successfully on the same defence. The issue is they aren’t going to get the PP minutes on a team that also has the two Rasmi. Ralph effectively used Dahlin the way Miller is best used, and Montour‘s best role had significant overlap with Risto and Joki that forced to him to play with other guys who want the puck, and often on his off-side.

I like Montour and think he would be a fine long-term signing if he is used to his strengths.

Moving any one of Montour, Risto, Miller or Joki will benefit the other three. But we also need another McCabe/Scandella to play with the ones who stay behind.

Our issue isn’t the individuals so much as it is the mix.

Edited September 4, 2020 by dudacek

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think there is some overlap in Miller and Montour. I think Colin is a bit better on the point, Brandon in the D zone and in transition, but they both like having the puck on their stick and lean to the offence.

I think Colin is ideally placed on your 3rd pair with significant PP minutes. I think Brandon needs to be used as the puck-mover on your second pair with a reliable defence-first type, with lots of even strength ice time, with a bit of PP and PK sprinkled in.

So they can both operate successfully on the same defence. The issue is they aren’t going to get the PP minutes on a team that also has the two Rasmi. Ralph effectively used Dahlin the way Miller is best used, and Montour‘s best role had significant overlap with Risto and Joki that forced to him to play with other guys who want the puck, and often on his off-side.

I like Montour and think he would be a fine long-term signing if he is used to his strengths.

Moving any one of Montour, Risto, Miller or Joki will benefit the other three. But we also need another McCabe/Scandella to play with the ones who stay behind.

Our issue isn’t the individuals so much as it is the mix.

Excellent analysis and very illuminating. Thank you. After reading your response it seems to me that by changing the mix with a departure or maybe two within the grouping it can enhance the roles of the remaining players. And if handled smartly you can trade an asset to upgrade a deficiency somewhere else and better balance the roster.  

Just as I felt that Krueger mishandled Skinner I thought he didn't handle Colin Miller very well either. There was a period of time where he was watching the games from upstairs in the team box. I just think that dealing either Miller or Montour will place the remaining player in a better position to succeed. 

[Thorny]

You touched on it @dudacek when you pointed out his advanced metrics under Krueger - bad. 

Probably not a great fit with Krueger and seeing as we have a surplus, I'm moving him if a reasonable deal presents itself. In fact I'm actively seeking one, as we assuredly need to move one RHD. 

[dudacek]

53 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You touched on it @dudacek when you pointed out his advanced metrics under Krueger - bad. 

Probably not a great fit with Krueger and seeing as we have a surplus, I'm moving him if a reasonable deal presents itself. In fact I'm actively seeking one, as we assuredly need to move one RHD. 

I see the metrics thing as less about Krueger and more about how the overload of puckmoving RD pushed Brandon into a role  he was less suited for, just like  (to @JohnC’s point)it pushed Miller off the PP and into the press box.

The bold is correct. I’d trade whichever one garners the return that best improves our holes elsewhere. (Joki and 8 for Cirelli remains the best proposal I’ve seen that might make sense for both teams)

[dudacek]

I struggle with the idea I see in multiple places of trading both Montour and Risto when they are our two best RD.

Colin Miller was tried as a top 4 in Vegas and failed. He’s not getting better. We can cross our fingers and hope Joki will eat up a Henrik Tallinder role on the 1st or 2nd pair, but counting on those two to anchor our right side is not much safer than betting on Casey Mittelstadt and Patrick Berglund to be our 2C by committee.

A Jokiharju/Miller/Borgen right side would be a terrible way to enter next season.

[PerreaultForever]

Trade him and don't worry about an equal return to the price paid, just blame it on JBot and move on but get something. anything. 

[Thorny]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I struggle with the idea I see in multiple places of trading both Montour and Risto when they are our two best RD.

Colin Miller was tried as a top 4 in Vegas and failed. He’s not getting better. We can cross our fingers and hope Joki will eat up a Henrik Tallinder role on the 1st or 2nd pair, but counting on those two to anchor our right side is not much safer than betting on Casey Mittelstadt and Patrick Berglund to be our 2C by committee.

A Jokiharju/Miller/Borgen right side would be a terrible way to enter next season.

I think Jokiharju was better than Montour and Miller as good, but I agree trading 2 would be difficult. I'm not sure who our bottom pair would be on either side. You've covered a lot of ground with that Mittelstadt comparison and IMO I'd argue some if it is true. Counting on either for 1st pair would be as bad but for 2nd pair, I'd be fine with it. Much more reasonable than the Casey 2C proposition.

But I take your meaning. The funny thing is, I don't see Risto as a 1st pairing D anyways so, I think I've just accepted we have at least two 2s, (Risto/Joki) and at least two 3s (Montour/Miller). We won't have the top spot filled adequately (on paper, see - Dahlin development) but it's reasonably solid with at least a 2,2,3, REGARDLESS of who we trade (assuming you count Montour as a 2). 

I'm good with trading any one of them, but probably one 1. 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I struggle with the idea I see in multiple places of trading both Montour and Risto when they are our two best RD.

Colin Miller was tried as a top 4 in Vegas and failed. He’s not getting better. We can cross our fingers and hope Joki will eat up a Henrik Tallinder role on the 1st or 2nd pair, but counting on those two to anchor our right side is not much safer than betting on Casey Mittelstadt and Patrick Berglund to be our 2C by committee.

A Jokiharju/Miller/Borgen right side would be a terrible way to enter next season.

I need to throw up and then cry for a while.  I'll be back in a few hours.

[PASabreFan]

Has Mrs. Brawndo been consulted? Maybe she has some thoughts on what should be done with Montour.