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spndnchz

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tom webster First Liner

tom webster

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Eleven said:

I don't think Lafreniere belongs in his own tier at all.  He's not McDavid, he's not Eichel, he's not even Auston Matthews.  I think he's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Maybe Taylor Hall.  Maybe.

I don't want the Sabres using this pick on a "safety" or on a tier-3 player.  TRADE THE PICK already.

 

One of us is mis-reading his list. I took it that the first three names were tier 1.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Yes.  And then below the list LGR says that Lafrieniere could be in his own tier.

Yes he is a step above everyone else listed. That doesn't mean in a draft with McDavid and Eichel he is on their tier. I am not comparing him to other drafts or other top picks but he is probably a step above Byfield and Stutzle currently for this draft. Might be more like a half step but still the point  is we are comparing within the 2020 draft not to other drafts. 

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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Domi? I would be very hesitant to do that. Domi is not a consistent player. 

Maybe they'd just wait until the draft floor (hear that every year), but what is a rough estimation of the player we'll get at 8? Based on your list, it looks like we are in line for a Raymond/Holtz tier 3 player. If you were running the draft, you've sold me enough on Jarvis, that, considering where I've seen him ranked in most lists, my opinion would maybe change on this b/c we'd have a real shot at getting him, as said, with you at the helm. 

But if we are dealing pre-draft, and we are likely in line for a Raymond/Holtz. What are the odds this player ends up better than Max Domi? Is that likely, even on it's face? And if so, how many years are we likely waiting for that to happen?

Is it worth betting on that chance, that he maybe becomes better, considering the Pay to Play price is several years worth of development wait-and-see? Even if he DOES end up better, I'm highly skeptical it would be close to enough difference to be worth the waiting time, considering the current context of the Buffalo Sabres. 

Edited by Thorny
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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I’m worried that the Larsson News makes Lundell more likely at 8 overall 

I’d be very worried if it does. The 8th overall pick should have absolutely no connection to who plays 3C for the Sabres this year.

It doesn’t match the narrative, but the Sabres have invested 6 top 40 picks in the past 5 years on centres, compared to 4 on defencemen and two on wingers.

#8 = player you think will have the best NHL career, position be damned.

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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Negative. If you think he's good, you take him at 8. 

I feel like trading down isn't utilized enough. If you can gather enough intel to be pretty confident you are going to get your man a bit lower, picking up an extra, free asset is the way to go, to me. Unless you have soooo much separation between 2 guys that you absolutely cannot afford to gamble (maybe you'd feel that way about Jarvis, LGR), I'd risk it. 

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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d be very worried if it does. The 8th overall pick should have absolutely no connection to who plays 3C for the Sabres this year.

It doesn’t match the narrative, but the Sabres have invested 6 top 40 picks in the past 5 years on centres, compared to 4 on defencemen and two on wingers.

#8 = player you think will have the best NHL career, position be damned.

So they've taken as many non centres as centres high up in the draft. They should have taken more centres. Half the centres you take are going to shift to wing anyways. 

Right off the bat, after taking 6 Cs, 4 D, and 2W, I'd assume 3 of those Cs, regardless of making it or not, switch to W. I'm looking at it conservatively from the centre perspective as it's the most important position in hockey, even if we weren't already coming at it from a place of weakness. And, the ability of Cs to play W, and usually not vice verse. So I'd be looking at it as roughly: 3 Cs, 4 D, and 5 Ws.

Maybe a decent balance for an organizationally balanced erhmm..organization, considering positional layout, but, I'd have been leaning C heavy myself. Yes, even when we had ROR. I wouldn't have minded 8-3-1 on paper. 

- - - 

I agree on BPA of course, but position is going to factor in on closely ranked players, a situation we'd likely be in. If not, go with the projection, definitely. Picking entirely based on best projected NHL career coincides nicely with wanting to trade the pick, too, as I'd rate the certainty of the established player quite highly. 

 I like the idea of fast-forwarding immediately to being in the process of that good career. 

Edited by Thorny
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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, kas23 said:

And he’s pick the absolute worst year to do it. I wish him the best of luck. 

For him, he may just be focused on getting onto a new team where he may not be relied upon in QUITE such a heavily defensive role, even for a season or two, bump up his raw numbers, and cash in on a bigger deal shortly. He's getting older, can't really blame him. 

It also illustrates the seriousness of our situation, as short of a big overpay, it would be tough to convince him he'd have the chance to similarly inflate his offensive numbers in our line up. 

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Thorny said:

So they've taken as many non centres as centres high up in the draft. They should have taken more centres. Half the centres you take are going to shift to wing anyways. 

Right off the bat, after taking 6 Cs, 4 D, and 2W, I'd assume 3 of those Cs, regardless of making it or not, switch to W. I'm looking at it conservatively from the centre perspective as it's the most important position in hockey, even if we weren't already coming at it from a place of weakness. And, the ability of Cs to play W, and usually not vice verse. So I'd be looking at it as roughly: 3 Cs, 4 D, and 5 Ws.

Maybe a decent balance for an organizationally balanced erhmm..organization, considering positional layout, but, I'd have been leaning C heavy myself. Yes, even when we had ROR. I wouldn't have minded 8-3-1 on paper. 

Just because I was curious, centres picked in the top 40 since 2014:
Buffalo: 6

Tampa: 2

Boston: 2

Toronto: 1

Florida: 3

Montreal: 2

Detroit: 4

Ottawa: 4

Washington: 1

Pittsburgh: 0

Islanders: 1

Rangers: 2

Devils: 6

Flyers: 5

Canes 3

Jackets 1

 

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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

Posted
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Just because I was curious, centres picked in the top 40 since 2014:
Buffalo: 6

Tampa: 2

Boston: 2

Toronto: 1

Florida: 3

Montreal: 2

Detroit: 4

Ottawa: 4

Washington: 1

Pittsburgh: 0

Islanders: 1

Rangers: 2

Devils: 6

Flyers: 5

Canes 3

Jackets 1

 

Ya, we haven't had much luck with the ones we have picked, either.

I guess 2 weren't NHL centres (Reinhart, Mittelstadt (imo)), 2 wasn't/isn't haven't been good NHL centres, Davidsson (?),  and Asplund. Is Davidsson a C? I thought he was a LW. Either way.

Leaving Eichel, a slam dunk from 5 years ago, and Cozens, yet to be an NHLer.  

We've only drafted 1 centre in the past 2 drafts top 40, and 2 centres TOTAL the past 2 seasons, the other being unlikely NHLer Pekar. 

We traded ROR in 2018. In the 2018 and 2019 drafts, Botterill drafted 2 centres in 12 picks. 6 Defencemen. 3 wingers. And a goalie. I don't care what other teams did, drafting only 2 centres, and 5 forwards, in his last two drafts and 12 picks total (base 14) was not enough for Botterill. 

Murray was better than Botterill. He drafted 9 centres. Botterill drafted 4. At the time of departure, Botterill had not drafted a C who had established as an NHL centre. 

Cozens should be his one big saving grace in this regard. 

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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Murray was better than Botterill.

In just about every way, and I feel that this is underappreciated here.  He might still be GM, and the Sabres might not be in such dire straits, had Murray been able to control his mouth.  His most-criticized trade was a late first-round pick for Lehner, and that's not looking so bad right now.

Edited by Eleven
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