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Draft Lottery Part 2, #1 Overall Pick: August 10th, 6pm EDT: NYR Win It


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I'll worry more about the entertainment value of playing against better players once the Sabres have won a, singular, one Cup.

 

For those who woke up this week, the main issue with this year's lottery (vs. any other recent year's) is that they split it in two, the first half of which was well before the "qualifier round" games.  It would be like holding it in late March when seven teams have been mathematically eliminate, using a placeholder for those still battling for a spot.  The 'qualifier round' was technically not the playoffs (even the NHL logo changed last night), but rather replaced the stretch run that didn't get played out due to COVID.  Think of it as the Penguins, Oilers and Nashville crapped out  down the stretch, while Montreal, Chicago and Arizona went on amazing runs.  The 15 teams that aren't playing in the Conference Quarterfinals are all lottery teams, as usual.  The probabilities were the same. 

However, because those eight teams weren't decided at the time of the initial lottery, they used placeholder and are now giving them an even shot.  Since they are seeding 9th-15th by regular-season record, they should have either (a) used those for determining who got the #1 by the slot that won, i.e., Florida as 12th, or (b) had a single placeholder initially with the total probability of 8th-15th (24.5%), and then held a weighted lottery:

  • Minnesota: 24.5% (6.0/24.5)
  • Winnipeg: 20.4% (5.0/24.5)
  • NY Rangers: 14.3% (3.5/24.5)
  • Nashville: 12.2% (3.0/24.5)
  • Florida: 10.2% (2.5/24.5)
  • Toronto: 8.2% (2.0/24.5)
  • Edmonton: 6.1% (1.5/24.5)
  • Pittsburgh: 4.1% (1.024.5)

Really, though, they should have just waited, assigned the above probabilities (the originals in parentheses, not the new recalculated ones), and then run the whole lottery today.

Edit: my (b) option would be difficult due to the 2nd and 3rd overall picks probabilities being affected by which slot won first.

Edited by carpandean
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Rangers win it

 

NYR. Oh well.

 

 

 

Not the best outcome, but definitely not the worst. I'll take it.

 

Now, officially from last night: LOL LEAFS LOL

 

Reminder: The Toronto Maple Leafs....do not have a 2020 1st now.

 

ha.

 

Thank god it wasn't the Leafs or the Pens but meh all over this. 

 

Rangers from 6-2 last year, 14-1 this year.

 Next time someone says Edmonton or Buffalo Or New Jersey wins the lottery too much, tell them to ***** right off. Those teams at least legitimately needed the help.

 

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Rangers from 6-2 last year, 14-1 this year.

 Next time someone says Edmonton or Buffalo Or New Jersey wins the lottery too much, tell them to ***** right off. Those teams at least legitimately needed the help.

The Rangers have a lot money tied up in wingers... just as an aside. 

 

19 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

Reminder: The Toronto Maple Leafs....do not have a 2020 1st now.

 

ha.

I’d trade Toronto our #8, Risto, and any one of Mitts, Olofsson, or Kahun, for Marner. Hell, let’s throw in a 2021 2nd rounder for added sweetener. 

 

8 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I’d trade Toronto our #8, Risto, and any one of Mitts, Olofsson, or Kahun, for Marner. Hell, let’s throw in a 2021 2nd rounder for added sweetener. 

These 3 things are not the same. 

 

8 minutes ago, ubkev said:

Why are you so mean to me? I literally never did anything to you!

Didn't know you were a Ewing fan.  Sorry.

 

8 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I’d trade Toronto our #8, Risto, and any one of Mitts, Olofsson, or Kahun, for Marner. Hell, let’s throw in a 2021 2nd rounder for added sweetener. 

Pass.

Fixes absolutely nothing, and basically makes us new Toronto with giant contracts, less overall talent, AND with less centers.

If you do trade 8, trade it for a center, not an 11 million dollar winger who isn't the difference between bottom-feeder and contender.

 

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Didn't know you were a Ewing fan.  Sorry.

Well, I wasn't alive when Patrick attended the worst school in the country. But I sure am a Knicks fan. And I sure hate the Bulls and Rockets.

 

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

These 3 things are not the same. 

I’m certainly not saying they are. But they can determine what they most need among those guys. Hey I’m just throwing crap out there. You and I both know, on forums, every trade proposal sucks. No one likes any trade proposal. ?

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Just now, Taro T said:

Meh, changing the rules to give the Knicks Ewing never panned out; doubt this helps their sister team much either.

Why are you so mean to me? I literally never did anything to you!

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