Jump to content

2020-21 Trade Rumors and Speculation


Brawndo

Recommended Posts

IMHO, +/- is a very tricky stat.  I consider it a primitive metaphor for a statistic -- it was the first attempt to measure skaters beyond simple goals + assists = points & penalty minutes.  As such, it is quite crude.

First, you need to put every team on the same scale with Adjusted Plus-Minus, which I commented on in the Analytics group.  This puts the entire league on roughly the same scale.

Even then, it's still imperfect.  Good teams tend to have a bunch of players just below an adjusted 0.0 while they have a few players well into the plus.  Conversely, bad teams tend to have several players near an adjusted 0.0 while they have many in the debit column.

And after that, you still need to be aware of player usage and their team situation.  Dave "Cementhead" Semenko got good ratings as Gretzky's bodyguard.  Wayne Gretzky's plus-minus dropped fairly steadily over his last few years because he was not a defencive stalwart in the DPE and he was tasked of carrying a team when his back wasn't up to it in more ways than one.  However, IMHO, if he had been in Buffalo int 1999 between Sanderson and Barnes, they might win the Cup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

IMHO, +/- is a very tricky stat.  I consider it a primitive metaphor for a statistic -- it was the first attempt to measure skaters beyond simple goals + assists = points & penalty minutes.  As such, it is quite crude.

First, you need to put every team on the same scale with Adjusted Plus-Minus, which I commented on in the Analytics group.  This puts the entire league on roughly the same scale.

Even then, it's still imperfect.  Good teams tend to have a bunch of players just below an adjusted 0.0 while they have a few players well into the plus.  Conversely, bad teams tend to have several players near an adjusted 0.0 while they have many in the debit column.

And after that, you still need to be aware of player usage and their team situation.  Dave "Cementhead" Semenko got good ratings as Gretzky's bodyguard.  Wayne Gretzky's plus-minus dropped fairly steadily over his last few years because he was not a defencive stalwart in the DPE and he was tasked of carrying a team when his back wasn't up to it in more ways than one.  However, IMHO, if he had been in Buffalo int 1999 between Sanderson and Barnes, they might win the Cup.

Paging @pi2000 ...

@pi2000 ... pink courtesy phone ... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

Perfect example stats people hate to talk about. Leafs had a huge possession and zone time advantage against the Leafs and lost, go figure. 

 

Of course the Leafs lost to the Leafs. 
 

That’s usually who beats them most often. 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Haha (+1) 4
  • Awesome! (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Maybe my point was lost in the overall paragraphs. My point is we add a piece we lose a different piece we don't get better. We added Kane as that goal scorer and ROR as 2C then we ditched Kane and added Skinner (both flawed but in hindsight I think I'd rather have kept the cheaper option who doesn't score all that much less) so we still need a 2C.

For some reason we can't seem to put the pieces together in Buffalo even when we bring people in they seem to drop off and disappoint or lose their love........maybe after multiple failures you have to look back and think maybe they weren't cancers on the team, maybe there's mold in the walls. 

Identifying the mistakes of the past is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. I'm not going to get weighed down by the glaring mistakes of the past that can't be changed. This offseason the team is in a position to make some deals that upgrade the team and better balance out the roster. Will it be done? I hope so. The opportunities should be there. 

When you are driving and constantly have your eyes on the rear-view mirror looking to see what is behind you instead of keeping your eyes on the road to see what is in front of you what inevitably happens is you crash. My advice to people who are so sour because of the frustrations of the past is to put your energies into the possibilities of the future. I guarantee that you will be much happier.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

This is from a deleted tweet from the NHL Coaches Association.

This describes  Botterill’s use of analytics as well

033BA048-6551-4172-A871-BE06BC2A401C.jpeg

I think the potential issue with that is clear, but I’m going to say it anyway.

An organization needs to decide what it values in players from both eyeball and analytics scouting.  Then find players that meet their criteria in both of those areas.

If you eyeball scout, then go looking for numbers that tell what you already believe, you will be able to find them, because there is an immense amount of numbers out there.  The problem is that not all of those numbers are important, and you will be able to find something to support your eyeball scouting, regardless of whether it was good or not.

Edited by Curt
I still don’t type good on my phone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

Identifying the mistakes of the past is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. I'm not going to get weighed down by the glaring mistakes of the past that can't be changed. This offseason the team is in a position to make some deals that upgrade the team and better balance out the roster. Will it be done? I hope so. The opportunities should be there. 

When you are driving and constantly have your eyes on the rear-view mirror looking to see what is behind you instead of keeping your eyes on the road to see what is in front of you what inevitably happens is you crash. My advice to people who are so sour because of the frustrations of the past is to put your energies into the possibilities of the future. I guarantee that you will be much happier.  

Sorry, but I've tried that for several seasons now and just can't any more as I see the same thing repeating yet again. What you say is true, but there is also that other adage that those who ignore history are destined to repeat it. 

What about Adams being hired and the current talk seems in any way different to you than when Murray or JBot was hired? Myself, it feels like deja vu and I'm not going to be fooled again. So if/when this new group does something real, something different, then I'm all in, but I'm not blindly buying in yet again just based on hope and rhetoric. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back to trades and speculation...

Lots of buzz around Josh Anderson from Jackets...the Jackets are right up against the cap and have several young prospects to resign over the next couple of years including Dubois this off season.  I believe Anderson is as good as gone and Jackets just want to maximize their return.  They showed this year they can win without him and probably don't want to give him a big contract.

Wennberg is another player Jackets have not been high on the past two seasons after he signed his contract.  I believe he showed in the post season he is still a good player and just needs to find the right fit.  Columbus would have to retain a little on Wennberg but feel he would be a 2nd or 3rd line center option for Buffalo.

 

My trade-

Risto and 2021 2nd rd pick for Anderson and Wennberg ($1mil. retained).  Risto would be a perfect fit behind Werenski and Jones.

 

Skinner, Eichel, Anderson

Olofsson, Wennberg, Reinhart

Kahun, Cozens, Johansson

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/4/2020 at 6:54 PM, thewookie1 said:

Your trade proposal is too rich for my taste. 

Just saying though if we got Ehlers I might go

Skinner-Eichel-Ehlers

Olofsson-2C-Reinhart 

Johansson-Cozens-RW3

Asplund-Lazar-Okposo

 

Thompson is a tad troublesome though due to his inexperience and I really don’t want him with Cozens.

Ehlers-Eichel-Thompson

Olofsson-X-Sam

Skinner-Cozens-Johansson

?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Instigators all over a tip that Johnny Gaudreau is being shopped.

Career-worst 58 points last year. 99 the year before.

LW, one year left in a contract that pays him $6.75 million.

What would you give up?

Okposo, mittelstadt, montours rights? Any of those would be great. Not realistic I understand. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Instigators all over a tip that Johnny Gaudreau is being shopped.

Career-worst 58 points last year. 99 the year before.

LW, one year left in a contract that pays him $6.75 million.

What would you give up?

Once the Sabres have a 2C I'd think about this.  For now, all assets have to be focused on obtaining the 2C.  

  • Like (+1) 4
  • Awesome! (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

Risto for Letang anyone?

No thanks.  Firstly, I'm pretty sure that Letang has at least a limited no trade. Secondly:  Age and concern over health.  Thirdly:  we need a competent second line center.  I'm not sure adding more cap on the back end is a wise investment.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I don't like the fit of Johnny Hockey on Buffalo.  Only signed for two more years and he won't extend here or it will be way too expensive.

We already have Skinner, Olofsson, and Kahun to fill out the left side.  

Kahun isn’t playing LW.  MOJO is more likely to be 3 LW. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...