Sabres Picking 8th

[LGR4GM]

To take this another step, 99 forwards in the last full NHL season made it to 50 points or more. They odds of any team being able to produce 3 50 point centers plus the corresponding wingers to support that production is very low. It might be possible but I don't want us to set up the expectation that a 3c should/would/could produce 50points with any regularity. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

27 minutes ago, Curt said:

There is the issue of:  A guy playing 3rd line mins with 3rd line talent is pretty unlikely to hit 50 pts, even if he is very good.  That’s why it doesn’t happen.

 

ROR’s pts while in Buffalo are pretty much what I described as Lundell’s “ceiling”.  If Cozens were to develop into a 50-60 point, good 2-way C.  I would be very happy, and I think that is a well above average 2C.

 

Weren't Vanek, Roy, and Poms 3rd line early on? I think all 3 were at or over 50pts. Isn't that where we would ideally like to be or are we settling like we usually do?

Just trying to be optimistic.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Weren't Vanek, Roy, and Poms 3rd line early on? I think all 3 were at or over 50pts. Isn't that where we would ideally like to be or are we settling like we usually do?

Just trying to be optimistic.

Not when they scored over 50 they weren't. Pommers replaced Dumont in the top 6 and Vanek I think was always in the top 6. Roy might fall into this category but it was for a single season in 2006/7 and I don't think they NHL currently sits at that scoring rate. 

[Andrew Amerk]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not when they scored over 50 they weren't. Pommers replaced Dumont in the top 6 and Vanek I think was always in the top 6. Roy might fall into this category but it was for a single season in 2006/7 and I don't think they NHL currently sits at that scoring rate. 

IIRC, Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov was a 3rd line Ruff deployed to create mismatches. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Not when they scored over 50 they weren't. Pommers replaced Dumont in the top 6 and Vanek I think was always in the top 6. Roy might fall into this category but it was for a single season in 2006/7 and I don't think they NHL currently sits at that scoring rate. 

And Roy was what? A center?

In '06-'07 our top seven forwards were all over 55pts and Stafford was pacing at 54 (41g/27pts) and Kotalik was pacing about 46. That's 9 forwards and 4 of them were Briere, Drury, Roy and Hecht. I assume Hecht was laying wing.

[Curt]

56 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

And Roy was what? A center?

In '06-'07 our top seven forwards were all over 55pts and Stafford was pacing at 54 (41g/27pts) and Kotalik was pacing about 46. That's 9 forwards and 4 of them were Briere, Drury, Roy and Hecht. I assume Hecht was laying wing.

Yeah, Roy always played C I think.  Hecht was at W.

In 2005-06 I believe Roy/Vanek/Pominville was the 3rd line pretty much all year.  They didn’t score over 50 though.  The next season they were not together, or playing the 3rd line nearly as much.  This is based off mostly fuzzy memory.

In any case, those 2 season were a long time ago, and a strange time in the NHL.  Penalties called were through the roof and PP scoring numbers followed suit.  Point totals were inflated.  It was 15 years ago.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Not when they scored over 50 they weren't. Pommers replaced Dumont in the top 6 and Vanek I think was always in the top 6. Roy might fall into this category but it was for a single season in 2006/7 and I don't think they NHL currently sits at that scoring rate. 

 

1 hour ago, Andrew Amerk said:

IIRC, Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov was a 3rd line Ruff deployed to create mismatches. 

You are correct Andrew.  We had a Drury line, A Briere Line and then the Roy/Vanek/Max line.  We also had a Hecht/Grier 4th line and an all around excellent team with many guys like Hecht and Connolly who could play up and down the lineup.  The 05/06 team had 6 20 goal scorers plus 4 additional forwards with 16+ goals. Add Soupy's 12 goals for added offense.  the 06/07 team was even better with 4 30+ goal scorers, 2 more 20 goal guys and 3 13-19 goal scorers.  

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

And Roy was what? A center?

In '06-'07 our top seven forwards were all over 55pts and Stafford was pacing at 54 (41g/27pts) and Kotalik was pacing about 46. That's 9 forwards and 4 of them were Briere, Drury, Roy and Hecht. I assume Hecht was laying wing.

Okay. So we just need 3 top centers how about Eicehl Cozens and Rossi, and by my math... 3-4 wingers and we can replicate that team. Note the 3-4 wingers are not in the pipeline, organization, or even possibly drafted this season. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by LGR4GM

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

You are correct Andrew.  We had a Drury line, A Briere Line and then the Roy/Vanek/Max line.  We also had a Hecht/Grier 4th line and an all around excellent team with many guys like Hecht and Connolly who could play up and down the lineup.  The 05/06 team had 6 20 goal scorers plus 4 additional forwards with 16+ goals. Add Soupy's 12 goals for added offense.  the 06/07 team was even better with 4 30+ goal scorers, 2 more 20 goal guys and 3 13-19 goal scorers.  

This is where I hope we get to again some day and compete/contend. Those days were exciting Sabres hockey.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Okay. So we just need 3 top centers how about Eicehl Cozens and Rossi, and by my math... 3-4 wingers and we can replicate that team. Note the 3-4 wingers are not in the pipeline, organization, or even possibly drafted this season. 

What, no VO, Skinner, Sam?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

What, no VO, Skinner, Sam?

First VO is overrated  around here but whatever. Yes we need 3 more additional wingers to accomplish your goal. We have 2 lw and 1 rw. We already know skinner needs a full line. There's no rw depth anywhere in this org currently. So you at a minimum need 2 rw's if you are going to just push some rando or maybe Kahun into that #3lw slot. 

The chances of us producing a 50pt 3rd line center remain exceedingly low. What I am trying to say is there isn't a pommers, roy vanek even in this orgs pipeline. That's if I take out Cozens to fill in for Briere or Drury. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

You are correct Andrew.  We had a Drury line, A Briere Line and then the Roy/Vanek/Max line.  We also had a Hecht/Grier 4th line and an all around excellent team with many guys like Hecht and Connolly who could play up and down the lineup.  The 05/06 team had 6 20 goal scorers plus 4 additional forwards with 16+ goals. Add Soupy's 12 goals for added offense.  the 06/07 team was even better with 4 30+ goal scorers, 2 more 20 goal guys and 3 13-19 goal scorers.  

I remember

Hecht/Briere/Dumont  Kotalik/Drury/Grier Vanek/Roy/Afinogenov being the most usual combos, with Connolly bouncing around, and Pominville getting a lot of top 9 work with Connolly, Briere,, Hecht and Dumont injuries

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, Curt said:

Yeah, Roy always played C I think.  Hecht was at W.

In 2005-06 I believe Roy/Vanek/Pominville was the 3rd line pretty much all year.  They didn’t score over 50 though.  The next season they were not together, or playing the 3rd line nearly as much.  This is based off mostly fuzzy memory.

In any case, those 2 season were a long time ago, and a strange time in the NHL.  Penalties called were through the roof and PP scoring numbers followed suit.  Point totals were inflated.  It was 15 years ago.  

I think Roy was 3C even in 06-07 as we still had Briere and Drury on the top 2. He did score over 50 that year but that's an anomaly. 

He also basically did it in 05-06 as he had 46 points in 70 games and he was definitely 3C then.

Edited July 6, 2020 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think Roy was 3C even in 06-07 as we still had Briere and Drury on the top 2. He did score over 50 that year but that's an anomaly. 

He also basically did it in 05-06 as he had 46 points in 70 games and he was definitely 3C then.

Correct. An article about 06-07:

”Miller ended up with 40 wins that year and the team was also led by co-captains Briere (95 points) and Drury (37 goals), and a formidable third line consisting of Vanek (43 goals), Afinogenov (61 points in 56 games) and center Derek Roy (42 assists).“

43 goals on the 3rd line. That’s just insane. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Andrew Amerk

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Correct. An article about 06-07:

”Miller ended up with 40 wins that year and the team was also led by co-captains Briere (95 points) and Drury (37 goals), and a formidable third line consisting of Vanek (43 goals), Afinogenov (61 points in 56 games) and center Derek Roy (42 assists).“

43 goals on the 3rd line. That’s just insane. 

A healthy iteration of the Sabrres roster during the 05-06 playoffs is the best team this franchise has ever iced, don't care what anyone says. That third line is a first line, and the best third line we've ever seen around here, by far. 

The Sabres were the best, and deepest roster in the league that year and I'm not sure that's ever been the case otherwise. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Thorny

[SwampD]

Just now, Thorny said:

A healthy iteration of the Sabrres roster during the 05-06 playoffs is the best team this franchise has ever iced, don't care what anyone says. That third line is a first line, and the best third line we've ever seen around here, by far. 

Not sure I agree, as we saw how the Sabres fared after those other two left.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

First VO is overrated  around here but whatever. Yes we need 3 more additional wingers to accomplish your goal. We have 2 lw and 1 rw. We already know skinner needs a full line. There's no rw depth anywhere in this org currently. So you at a minimum need 2 rw's if you are going to just push some rando or maybe Kahun into that #3lw slot. 

The chances of us producing a 50pt 3rd line center remain exceedingly low. What I am trying to say is there isn't a pommers, roy vanek even in this orgs pipeline. That's if I take out Cozens to fill in for Briere or Drury. 

I'm also not talking about this year. I don't expect Cozens and Lundell to step in and produce those numbers in year one. We also don't know yet if Mitts/ Tage have/will develop accordingly.

But, like some others, I don't think we are that far from competing. 

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Not sure I agree, as we saw how the Sabres fared after those other two left.

I meant, their production that coming season, in today's standards. Obviously they were special within the context of that season, too. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

10 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Not sure I agree, as we saw how the Sabres fared after those other two left.

I’d agree. I’d say Vanek was a first line player, Roy a second or third liner. Max could slot anywhere in the top three lines. 

[Thorny]

84-69-89

..that's the point totals our 3rd line was pacing for over 82 games in 06-07. 

First line production, easily. 

 

[SwampD]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

84-69-89

..that's the point totals our 3rd line was pacing for over 82 games in 06-07. 

First line production, easily. 

 

But as the first line, those would not have been their totals.

[Thorny]

Just now, SwampD said:

But as the first line, those would not have been their totals.

Thanks for explaining that to me

8 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I’d agree. I’d say Vanek was a first line player, Roy a second or third liner. Max could slot anywhere in the top three lines. 

Derek Roy had 81 points in 79 games the year after Briere and Vanek left. Third liner.

[SwampD]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Thanks for explaining that to me

Derek Roy had 81 points in 79 games the year after Briere and Vanek left. Third liner.

I really liked Derek Roy. I don’t think he was a first line center.

[Andrew Amerk]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Thanks for explaining that to me

Derek Roy had 81 points in 79 games the year after Briere and Vanek left. Third liner.

Yes, or 2nd liner. Especially with a face off win % that was usually what? Around 45%?

[Thorny]

20 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I really liked Derek Roy. I don’t think he was a first line center.

 I know. I'm saying that line produced at the rate of a first line during that season, as our 3rd line. Should have stated it better, but I've clarified it now. 

With a Vegas-style balanced set-up, I think it's conceivable Roy may have been able to hold down a first line spot in the immediate years following the loss of the co-captains - Briere and Drury were replaced with nothing, it's not that we just asked Roy and Co. to take over for them. No one capable filled THEIR spots. 

But we are talking about a guy who was OVER a point a game in the season following their exit and who had solid production in the years after that, too - so I think we can agree he was a good second line talent. 

 

4 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Yes, or 2nd liner. Especially with a face off win % that was usually what? Around 45%?

Solidly 2nd line. 

Roy, in the 3 seasons and one partial one, before he suffered I believe it was a concussion that derailed his career, following the exit of the Co-Captains, had 255 points in 275 games. A 76 point pace per 82 games, on average. He was also back up to 35 in 35 in 2010-11 before the injury. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Thorny