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Kim explains how she and Terry pick coaches

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Skinner scored 20 goals goals six times without Jack Eichel, and 30 three times.

 Ralph would have played Skinner more if he played  better. Look at the game logs. Skinner got plenty of ice time until he stopped scoring, not the other way around. Ralph said earn it Jeff. That’s what culture looks like.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/5540/jeff-skinner

The lack of personal accountability for Skinner’s poor play is baffling to me.

Edited by dudacek
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24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner scored 20 goals goals six times without Jack Eichel, and 30 three times.

 Ralph would have played Skinner more if he played  better. Look at the game logs. Skinner got plenty of ice time until he stopped scoring, not the other way around. Ralph said earn it Jeff. That’s what culture looks like.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/5540/jeff-skinner

The lack of personal accountability for Skinner’s poor play is baffling to me.

I think it comes down to the fact his underlyings looked pretty good, among the best on the team, when he wasn't scoring. He was still getting his chances, but he wasn't cashing. 

Those who love the advanced stuff term his season "unlucky". Perhaps Ralph would have been better served with a "stick with it" approach, and maybe we need more of an analytics presence whispering that in his ear. 

Ralph wasn't punishing poor play, he was punishing lack of finish. People can form their own opinion on if that's warranted or not. 

- - - 

I think Skinner could have been better, too, even if I wasn't a fan of the way he was always being used. Regardless, they unquestionably maximized his production in his contract year, and moved away from that way of playing him in year 2. There needs to be better communication of plan among those involved. 

We'll see what happens. It would be in their best interest to maximize the second biggest contract on the team. 

Edited by Thorny
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1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

It's never going to be that cut and dry. There's not going to be a picture of Terry standing over the lifeless body of Sabretooth holding a bloody knife. Of course, even then you'd claim Terry could have merely been the one to remove the knife in an attempt to save 'tooth's life.

You're only disagreeing because you can't stand the idea of agreeing with me or are too proud to admit you were wrong. Terry confessed in 2013-ish and Kim just today. What more do you need to see?

It's funny though. Kim was never put on trial when clearly she should have been. The whole picture is emerging, which is good. She had a lot of people fooled with her, "I go to the business side and Terry goes to the GM side" quote. Tim Murray's slur is starting to make a lot more sense. At first I wondered why he'd be that upset at the paint choice in the trainer's room.

I'm disagreeing because facts are important, and it's important to distinguish between fact and theory, and not to pretend that a theory is a fact, regardless of how often it is repeated or claimed to be factual.

Terry's 2013 "confession" has been established to the same degree as Kim's confession of today -- which is to say, not established in the slightest.

You are welcome to your theories, of course.  But in evaluating them, it's reasonable for the board to be clear that they are only theories, and that they are theories that are being propounded by someone with an avowed fear and loathing of people like the Pegulas -- whom you've referred to here as "rich scumbags who rape the earth."

 

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Why Ralph stuck with this is certainly debatable.

But why it happened is no great mystery. Rightly or wrongly Ralph doesn’t trust Jeff 5-on-5 or 3-on-3 because he’s not a great passer and he cheats defensively. The guy has never been a plus player in his NHL career. Ralph also thinks Jeff is the second-most likely player on the team to create offence on his own and therefore his best choice to anchor a second line.

As far as the PP goes, go back and watch what Jeff did in the first two months of the year on PP1. He was a passenger who played himself off the unit.

After Ralph's comments earlier this month about players who don't like the role they've been asked to play, I'm fairly convinced he wasn't going to reward Skinner because Skinner was playing the game he wanted to play, not the one Ralph wanted him to play.

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

As far as the PP goes, go back and watch what Jeff did in the first two months of the year on PP1. He was a passenger who played himself off the unit.

This is correct.  Skinner has never been a good PP player though.  He isn’t a good passer and his excellent skating isn’t really an advantage on the PP.

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15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I'm disagreeing because facts are important, and it's important to distinguish between fact and theory, and not to pretend that a theory is a fact, regardless of how often it is repeated or claimed to be factual.

Terry's 2013 "confession" has been established to the same degree as Kim's confession of today -- which is to say, not established in the slightest.

You are welcome to your theories, of course.  But in evaluating them, it's reasonable for the board to be clear that they are only theories, and that they are theories that are being propounded by someone with an avowed fear and loathing of people like the Pegulas -- whom you've referred to here as "rich scumbags who rape the earth."

 

It wasn't a criminal trial.  Preponderance of the evidence, not without reasonable doubt.

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17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I'm disagreeing because facts are important, and it's important to distinguish between fact and theory, and not to pretend that a theory is a fact, regardless of how often it is repeated or claimed to be factual.

Terry's 2013 "confession" has been established to the same degree as Kim's confession of today -- which is to say, not established in the slightest.

You are welcome to your theories, of course.  But in evaluating them, it's reasonable for the board to be clear that they are only theories, and that they are theories that are being propounded by someone with an avowed fear and loathing of people like the Pegulas -- whom you've referred to here as "rich scumbags who rape the earth."

 

The board? You're one of the last holdouts. Don't act like you have much support in opposing the idea that they meddle.

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45 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner scored 20 goals goals six times without Jack Eichel, and 30 three times.

 Ralph would have played Skinner more if he played  better. Look at the game logs. Skinner got plenty of ice time until he stopped scoring, not the other way around. Ralph said earn it Jeff. That’s what culture looks like.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/5540/jeff-skinner

The lack of personal accountability for Skinner’s poor play is baffling to me.

This is true in part.  However, Skinner wasn’t given an opportunity on the 1st line.  A spot that was very good for everyone the year before.  Instead, he was played alongside marginal talent and the results were not good.

Faced with something that was not working, Krueger refused to try something that had proven to work very well in the past.

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51 minutes ago, Curt said:

This is true in part.  However, Skinner wasn’t given an opportunity on the 1st line.  A spot that was very good for everyone the year before.  Instead, he was played alongside marginal talent and the results were not good.

Faced with something that was not working, Krueger refused to try something that had proven to work very well in the past.

Right. And what, did Olofsson "earn" top line minutes? He was significantly worse at ES last year then Skinner was, so that "Ralph rewards performance" thing is out the window. 

Skinner had 5 more ES goals than VO had last year. 

Edited by Thorny

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I think it comes down to the fact his underlyings looked pretty good, among the best on the team, when he wasn't scoring. He was still getting his chances, but he wasn't cashing. 

Those who love the advanced stuff term his season "unlucky". Perhaps Ralph would have been better served with a "stick with it" approach, and maybe we need more of an analytics presence whispering that in his ear. 

Ralph wasn't punishing poor play, he was punishing lack of finish. People can form their own opinion on if that's warranted or not. 

- - - 

I think Skinner could have been better, too, even if I wasn't a fan of the way he was always being used. Regardless, they unquestionably maximized his production in his contract year, and moved away from that way of playing him in year 2. There needs to be better communication of plan among those involved. 

We'll see what happens. It would be in their best interest to maximize the second biggest contract on the team. 

I agree with the last sentence. I also think it would be in their best interest if the second biggest contract on the team would do a better job of what they are asking him to do.

The analytics stuff is very interesting to me.

Most people seem to notice and remember those times Skinner makes a gutty backcheck, steals the puck and flips the ice. They don’t seem to notice how on most rushes towards our goal he’s not in the frame because he’s been caught deep, or is coasting along yapping at the ref or the other team’s bench. And they don’t seem to notice how infrequently he is in position to support the d in Our zone in coverage or transition.

So when “the underlyings” look good, I really need one of those @Randall Flagg lessons to show me what those underlyings signify and what he’s doing to earn them.

Because the stat that best supports my eye test is -2 when he’s scoring and -22 when he’s not.

32 minutes ago, Curt said:

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1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The board? You're one of the last holdouts. Don't act like you have much support in opposing the idea that they meddle.

I don’t believe they meddle. The fact that they allowed JNOT to hand out the contracts he did is as much proof of my position as anything you have provided to the contrary. There is no doubt they have to sign off on things at a certain price point but that’s just being owners.

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18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. And what, did Olofsson "earn" top line minutes? He was significantly worse at ES last year then Skinner was, so that "Ralph rewards performance" thing is out the window. 

Skinner had 5 more ES goals than VO had last year. 

This suggests that the only thing Ralph is looking at is goals.

Ive never disagreed with the idea that Ralph could have used Skinner better, just the fact that so many people would rather talk about that than taking Jeff to task for his poor play.

 

Edited by dudacek

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24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. And what, did Olofsson "earn" top line minutes? He was significantly worse at ES last year then Skinner was, so that "Ralph rewards performance" thing is out the window. 

Skinner had 5 more ES goals than VO had last year. 

Exactly.  Olofsson is often viewed through a very positive lens, but he only ok at ES.  He wasn’t doing anything special on the top line in what would have been Skinner’s spot.    Skinner was better.

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Just now, Curt said:

 Skinner was better.

At scoring goals. Last year.

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2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

The board? You're one of the last holdouts. Don't act like you have much support in opposing the idea that they meddle.

Well, my point was not that they don't meddle.  It was simply that we shouldn't pretend an article that says X also says Y, Z, A, B, C and "Kim confessed that the GM isn't allowed to hire his own coach" -- and that repeating it endlessly doesn't make it any more true.

In any case, the real question isn't whether TP is involved in decision-making -- it's whether, as @tom webster points out, they are more involved than most other NHL owners.

I would guess that they have no more overall involvement than 25 other NHL owners.  But please note that I don't pretend that it's any more than a guess.

 

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

So when “the underlyings” look good, I really need one of those @Randall Flagg lessons to show me what those underlyings signify and what he’s doing to earn them.

I know I'm not as trustworthy as Flagg but if I may field guess here on those underlyings..a lot of it comes down to generating chances. Skinner took 3.2 shots per game in 18-19, and 3.1 per game last season. He was still earning and getting his chances, he wasn't cashing. 

And that was without JE. He was definitely doing something right to find himself in positions such that he was basically getting as many shots on net as he was when he was with Jack. The biggest dip for Skinner was actually his assist totals. A lot of that is going to come down to the linemates he's passing the puck to. Or, more often, the ones cleaning up his rebounds. 

Edited by Thorny

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2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know I'm not as trustworthy as Flagg but if I may field guess here on those underlyings..a lot of it comes down to generating chances. Skinner took 3.2 shots per game in 18-19, and 3.1 per game last season. He was still earning and getting his chances, he wasn't cashing. 

And that was without JE. He was definitely doing something right to find himself in positions such that he was basically getting as many shots on net as he was when he was with Jack. The biggest dip for Skinner was actually his assist totals. A lot of that is going to come down to the linemates he's passing the puck to. 

I'd be curious to see the comparison of quality/location of shots between those two seasons.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

At scoring goals. Last year.

That line definitely didn't carry the play at ES like Jack and Skinner did, the metrics back that up. Skinner is still a better even strength player than VO at this stage of their careers. 

My biggest eye test recollection from Skinner last season was all the times he was in spots where, the previous year that had me thinking "automatic goal" by game 41, this year I was thinking, "why aren't you scoring?".  It's an overgeneralization and I noticed some of the yapping and lack of D coverage moreso this year too, but a lot of that to me was probably brought to my attention in a new light, that was always there, because he wasn't finding twine. 

Skinner was pacing for 20 goals at even strength this year. He had 32 the previous, with Jack.

He had zero PPG this past year, and 8 the year before. He didn't play on the PP much this year, right? That does account for some of the lost production, too. A down year, both by play, luck, and linemate quality. 

Edited by Thorny

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Terry and Kim picking GM's and coaches:

 

image.png

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2 hours ago, Weave said:

After Ralph's comments earlier this month about players who don't like the role they've been asked to play, I'm fairly convinced he wasn't going to reward Skinner because Skinner was playing the game he wanted to play, not the one Ralph wanted him to play.

If this is true, it’s a knock on Ralphie. 
 

For some players, you have to let them play their game, and not try to fit them into a box. 

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57 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know I'm not as trustworthy as Flagg but if I may field guess here on those underlyings..a lot of it comes down to generating chances. Skinner took 3.2 shots per game in 18-19, and 3.1 per game last season. He was still earning and getting his chances, he wasn't cashing. 

And that was without JE. He was definitely doing something right to find himself in positions such that he was basically getting as many shots on net as he was when he was with Jack. The biggest dip for Skinner was actually his assist totals. A lot of that is going to come down to the linemates he's passing the puck to. Or, more often, the ones cleaning up his rebounds. 

This supports my eye test. As flawed as the guy is elsewhere, he is absolutely elite in this area.
He shoots at every opportunity, and he is always getting into the scoring areas.

If the analytic is weighted to scoring chances, then he can be an asset, even with his defensive flaws.
Zone exits and chance suppression, he contributes nothing to my eyes.

I agree with Ralph - and his history and your chance analytics actually support this - that he shouldn’t need Jack to score. He’s not a timing guy like Olofsson who finds holes and relies on people to get him the puck, he creates his own chances. Olofsson needs Jack more than Jeff does. All Jeff needs are linemates who get pucks to the net and cover for his flaws in the other two zones. 

I think if Olofsson is with Jack, you should be expecting 30 from him and 30 from Skinner. If Skinner is with Jack, it’s 40 from Jeff and 20 from VO.

After that, it becomes about goals against.

Edited by dudacek
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So what is the implication of the quote? That the guys fired over the last decade were all inauthentic? Liars?

It's just more rubbish that puts the blame on others instead of themselves. 

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9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This supports my eye test. As flawed as the guy is elsewhere, he is absolutely elite in this area.
He shoots at every opportunity, and he is always getting into the scoring areas.

If the analytic is weighted to scoring chances, then he can be an asset, even with his defensive flaws.
Zone exits and chance suppression, he contributes nothing to my eyes.

I think his xG per 60 was pretty much the same as last year, as well. In the upper echelon of the league. Just didn't happen.

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3 hours ago, Weave said:

After Ralph's comments earlier this month about players who don't like the role they've been asked to play, I'm fairly convinced he wasn't going to reward Skinner because Skinner was playing the game he wanted to play, not the one Ralph wanted him to play.

Could be Johansson.  Natural LW forced to C.  Paul Hamilton mentioned it as an issue this past week, as a result of the coaches trying to fill in the hole at 2C when it was settled that Mittelstadt wasn't it.  Said Johansson was a team player, and would do anything asked of him, but everyone knew he performed better at LW.

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