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Fixing the PK


dudacek

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Deep dive into the issues of our 30th-ranked 74.6 % PK by the Buffalo News

https://buffalonews.com/2020/06/03/buffalo-sabres-ralph-krueger-steve-smith-linus-ullmark-carter-hutton-nhl-news-2020/

 

Things that jumped out at me:

  • The Sabres ran the same system with mostly the same players as they did the previous year when they finished a respectable 12th
  • PK save percentage dropped from 9th to 29th from last year to this.
  • Sabres goalies were .839. Robin Lehner led the league at .918
  • The Sabres allowed a ton of chances in tight: dead centre and glove side.
  • Frolik, brought in to fix the PK, had the teams worst PK ranking in terms of goals per 60. Rasmus Asplund was the best.
  • Scandella, despite his overall improved play, fell off on the PK as the season went on. Jokiharju struggled as his replacement
  • The road PK was an abysmal 69.4 per cent
  • During the 6-game losing streak that effectively pushed us out of the playoffs, the PK was at 57 per cent.

Obviously this was a huge problem. I’d say an average 80% PK would have resulted in 3 more wins. A good 84% PK might do twice that.

How do we fix it?

 

Edited by dudacek
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11 minutes ago, dudacek said:
  • During the 6-game losing streak that effectively pushed us out of the playoffs, the PK was at 57 per cent.

Johansson played a few during that final streak and he just wasn't ready to support a team that was floundering (the really solid Colorado game notwithstanding). It's cliche but your best PKer has to be the goalie and Hutton and Johansson were not doing the team any favors. Take away Hutton's hot start (why we were in 1st place for a bit) and he was awful last year. Thankfully, goalies can wildly vary from season-to-season so maybe this next season he'll be solid. Bring back an even slightly-improved Ullmark and we'll likely be within the regular league-wide range.

If Asplund is an above-average NHL PKer then he'll earn a 4th line role on the team.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Deep dive into the issues of our 30th-ranked 74.6 % PK by the Buffalo News

https://buffalonews.com/2020/06/03/buffalo-sabres-ralph-krueger-steve-smith-linus-ullmark-carter-hutton-nhl-news-2020/

 

Things that jumped out at me:

  • The Sabres ran the same system with mostly the same players as they did the previous year when they finished a respectable 12th
  • PK save percentage dropped from 9th to 29th from last year to this.
  • Sabres goalies were .839. Robin Lehner led the league at .918
  • The Sabres allowed a ton of chances in tight: dead centre and glove side.
  • Frolik, brought in to fix the PK, had the teams worst PK ranking in terms of goals per 60. Rasmus Asplund was the best.
  • Scandella, despite his overall improved play, fell off on the PK as the season went on. Jokiharju struggled as his replacement
  • The road PK was an abysmal 69.4 per cent
  • During the 6-game losing streak that effectively pushed us out of the playoffs, the PK was at 57 per cent.

Obviously this was a huge problem. I’d say an average 80% PK would have resulted in 3 more wins. A good 84% PK might do twice that.

How do we fix it?

 

Improved goaltending would help - even league average in PK would help.  I felt like anything cross ice was always in the back of the net with hutton, as well as short side ones - he was just a nightmare.  

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I don't think there is much to do to fix it. Coaches keep working on it...that is it.  Sometimes you will have one of the best PK or pp in the league one year..and a bad one the next...with little changed so there is a lot of randomness involved.

 

Edited by mjd1001
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1 hour ago, Weave said:

I wonder if the league trend in how powerplays operate changed last season and our penalty kill scheme just wasn’t well suited to it?

I feel like teams were able to exploit the defense a bit.  Get caught chasing behind the net, not rotating quickly enough, and just generally not stopping cross ice passes.  Also felt we were a bit passive in pressuring teams so they could just a- take the zone easily and b- maintain the zone.  Goaltending was also a bit of an issue, felt like short side was a gaping hole all the time.

 

Edited by Drag0nDan
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I'm curious why Lance left out the fact that Lazar had the lowest actual PP Goals against per 60 minutes (outside Vlad in only 16 games played), yet he chose to call him out for having the worst "expected" goals against per 60 based on Evolving stats.  I saw Larson and Asplund as pleasant surprises on an overall bad PK.   The quality against is always going to be less when you play the second minute.  Goals count the same.  And he lined up against the players the other team put out on the ice.  

  I still think RFK needed to make a coaching change.  I also believe a Peitrangelo or D. Byf as top line Defender would add the proper ingredient to our PK.   

1540271296_shorthanded.thumb.png.75b10a60e2812f3ff66dc15dcbfbf987.png

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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

My inclination is to blame goaltending first, coaching 2nd and defensive execution third.

 

Coaching is definitely an issue as they play a very passive box.  Of course, fear of leaving somebody open in the slot or at the side of the net should a pass get through with post-Sweden Hutton in net might cause a substantial portion of that passivity.

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12 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My inclination is to blame goaltending first, coaching 2nd and defensive execution third.

 

 

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

Coaching is definitely an issue as they play a very passive box.  Of course, fear of leaving somebody open in the slot or at the side of the net should a pass get through with post-Sweden Hutton in net might cause a substantial portion of that passivity.

From the article:

The 1-1-2 structure implemented by Smith has the two forwards roam around the defensive zone. They apply pressure to the puck carrier to push the opponent to the perimeter, while the two defensemen are tasked with preventing chances near the Sabres' net.

Also:

"Our 5-on-5 play really improved, but special teams let us down this year, which was very disappointing," McCabe said. "Penalty kill, obviously, it was very disappointing for myself. It’s kind of one of my niches and we had a great penalty kill the year before and we really didn’t change anything. Unfortunately, it’s one of those things where confidence started dropping, bad breaks here and there. But it’s one of those things where I’m not worried about us getting back on track next year because I do like our systems in place and I know we can get the job done once again.

 

Im inclined to think the issues start and stop with goaltending, and, more importantly, skater confidence in the same. A few more big saves here and there not only improve the numbers, they can lead to things snowballing.

Edited by dudacek
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  • 3 months later...
6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Biggest problem, our face off winning percentage dead last in the league. 

I feel pretty sure that it’s not the biggest problem with the PK.

The reason they were last in the league is because Jack took twice as many FOs as anyone else, and isn’t great at them, and because Johansson took 500 FOs and won just 40%.  Those guys weren’t taking draws on the PK though.

In fact, Buffalo was not among the worst teams in the league in PK FO%, not that they were good, 18th at 44.5%.  That was still better than some teams with much better PKs.

Edmonton - #2 PK, 41.9%
Boston -  #3 PK, 39.4% (2nd last)
New Jersey - #7 PK, 42.2%.  
Penguins -#10 PK, 37.7% (dead last)

And there are more.  It seems as though there is not that much correlation between FO% on the PK and how good the PK is.

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When it comes to PK what we really are talking about finding ways to limit the number of total goals against and fixing the PK is just one piece of that puzzle.  The best way to avoid PP GA is to not take penalties.  We actually were good at that last season.  We had the 4th least penalties called on us last season (2.68 per game).  So while we had the second worst PK, our lack of penalties put us at 24th in total PP GA.  Not stellar but better.  Now we have to continue not to take penalties but also find a way to kill penalties when they occur.

Save % on the PK by our two main goalies was piss poor.  Ullmark .838 and Hutton .836.  It's often said your goalie needs to be our best PKer and ours weren't.  We also only won 44.5% of our SH faceoffs.  I know @LGR4GM doesn't think FO% is that important, but having the PP team starting with the puck 10% more often doesn't help.

I don't know where to find this stat but it would be interesting to know how many shots per PP we allowed last season and what % of those shots were in high danger areas (and how those compare to the rest of the NHL).  I think this would reveal if the problem was more the goaltending or the scheme.

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12 hours ago, Curt said:

  It seems as though there is not that much correlation between FO% on the PK and how good the PK is.

Well you dug deeper into the stats then I did so I'm going to believe you but it seems like such an odd thing to me. I mean a PP starts in your end you win the draw you kill 20-30 seconds easily, you lose the draw the other team is set up right away so that has to be an advantage simply in the amount of time shorthanded if nothing else but leave that as is I guess. Dead last in the league in any category though imo is a big problem that needs fixing. 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When it comes to PK what we really are talking about finding ways to limit the number of total goals against and fixing the PK is just one piece of that puzzle.  The best way to avoid PP GA is to not take penalties.  We actually were good at that last season.  We had the 4th least penalties called on us last season (2.68 per game).  So while we had the second worst PK, our lack of penalties put us at 24th in total PP GA.  Not stellar but better.  Now we have to continue not to take penalties but also find a way to kill penalties when they occur.

Save % on the PK by our two main goalies was piss poor.  Ullmark .838 and Hutton .836.  It's often said your goalie needs to be our best PKer and ours weren't.  We also only won 44.5% of our SH faceoffs.  I know @LGR4GM doesn't think FO% is that important, but having the PP team starting with the puck 10% more often doesn't help.

I don't know where to find this stat but it would be interesting to know how many shots per PP we allowed last season and what % of those shots were in high danger areas (and how those compare to the rest of the NHL).  I think this would reveal if the problem was more the goaltending or the scheme.

I don't know about this either. We didn't take penalties because we're a soft team and that's not a good thing if you want to win in the second half of the year (not to mention playoffs if we ever get there). Being able to kill penalties so you can afford to take some is far more important imo.

I also have trouble blaming the goaltending. the goalies don't play worse when we are shorthanded, the problem is we do not clear the front very well or control rebounds and with a man down we're really bad at it so often the screens are better and the goalies have to overplay pucks to worry about rebounds. PK is a team thing, it's not on the goalies, they're the same as the rest of the 60 minutes. 

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9 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well you dug deeper into the stats then I did so I'm going to believe you but it seems like such an odd thing to me. I mean a PP starts in your end you win the draw you kill 20-30 seconds easily, you lose the draw the other team is set up right away so that has to be an advantage simply in the amount of time shorthanded if nothing else but leave that as is I guess. Dead last in the league in any category though imo is a big problem that needs fixing. 

I don't know about this either. We didn't take penalties because we're a soft team and that's not a good thing if you want to win in the second half of the year (not to mention playoffs if we ever get there). Being able to kill penalties so you can afford to take some is far more important imo.

I also have trouble blaming the goaltending. the goalies don't play worse when we are shorthanded, the problem is we do not clear the front very well or control rebounds and with a man down we're really bad at it so often the screens are better and the goalies have to overplay pucks to worry about rebounds. PK is a team thing, it's not on the goalies, they're the same as the rest of the 60 minutes. 

I agree with you.  FO% could use some improvement, at least situationally.  I don’t put a ton of value in it, but I do want to be able to put a good face off guy out there in key situations, especially defensively.

I think there are a lot of reasons the PK was bad.  There were times that goaltending (Hutton) was really bad, and I do think that it showed more on the PK because that’s where you often face the toughest shots.  They often played passively and let the other team dictate the PP.  The FO% didn’t help them I’m sure, I just think it’s a small part of a large puzzle.  When you are last by a large margin, it’s not just one thing.

Edited by Curt
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On 6/3/2020 at 7:25 AM, dudacek said:

Deep dive into the issues of our 30th-ranked 74.6 % PK by the Buffalo News

https://buffalonews.com/2020/06/03/buffalo-sabres-ralph-krueger-steve-smith-linus-ullmark-carter-hutton-nhl-news-2020/

 

Things that jumped out at me:

  • The Sabres ran the same system with mostly the same players as they did the previous year when they finished a respectable 12th
  • PK save percentage dropped from 9th to 29th from last year to this.
  • Sabres goalies were .839. Robin Lehner led the league at .918
  • The Sabres allowed a ton of chances in tight: dead centre and glove side.
  • Frolik, brought in to fix the PK, had the teams worst PK ranking in terms of goals per 60. Rasmus Asplund was the best.
  • Scandella, despite his overall improved play, fell off on the PK as the season went on. Jokiharju struggled as his replacement
  • The road PK was an abysmal 69.4 per cent
  • During the 6-game losing streak that effectively pushed us out of the playoffs, the PK was at 57 per cent.

Obviously this was a huge problem. I’d say an average 80% PK would have resulted in 3 more wins. A good 84% PK might do twice that.

How do we fix it?

 

 

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Good conversation on the Instigators this morning

Top PK last year: Larsson Girgensons Scandella Ristolainen

2nd unit guys: Vesey Lazar Sobotka Frolik Asplund Rodrigues Eichel McCabe Jokiharju Bogosian Montour

The good news is our PK was terrible and turnover is probably needed.

The bad news is we have basically three guys (Risto, McCabe, Lazar) coming back with any significant experience at killing penalties.

Who plays PK this year?

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Good conversation on the Instigators this morning

Top PK last year: Larsson Girgensons Scandella Ristolainen

2nd unit guys: Vesey Lazar Sobotka Frolik Asplund Rodrigues Eichel McCabe Jokiharju Bogosian Montour

The good news is our PK was terrible and turnover is probably needed.

The bad news is we have basically three guys (Risto, McCabe, Lazar) coming back with any significant experience at killing penalties.

Who plays PK this year?

Eichel's the 5th PK F.  Jokiharju the 3rd PK D.  Guessing Dahlin will be the 5th PK D & that PK F2 & D4 aren't on the roster at prsent.  2nd F PK pairing, can Kahun play PK?  Has Staal?  Good question.

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3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Eichel's the 5th PK F.  Jokiharju the 3rd PK D.  Guessing Dahlin will be the 5th PK D & that PK F2 & D4 aren't on the roster at prsent.  2nd F PK pairing, can Kahun play PK?  Has Staal?  Good question.

Maybe even both PK forwards on the first unit aren't here, considering it was Larsson and Girgs. Who's the guy you have in, Lazar?

Edited by Thorny
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7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Good conversation on the Instigators this morning

Top PK last year: Larsson Girgensons Scandella Ristolainen

2nd unit guys: Vesey Lazar Sobotka Frolik Asplund Rodrigues Eichel McCabe Jokiharju Bogosian Montour

The good news is our PK was terrible and turnover is probably needed.

The bad news is we have basically three guys (Risto, McCabe, Lazar) coming back with any significant experience at killing penalties.

Who plays PK this year?

Depends.  Lazar is the only sure thing.  There are still so many roster spots to fill and likely more contracted players who could be traded to have any real projection on who plays the pk.  What if we acquire a Haula, Bonino, Merrill or M Staal? 

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This is off topic, but why do people keep bringing up Jon Merrill?

He’s 28 and has never established himself as an NHL regular. Never.

Did someone once post a bar graph that had a lot of blue in it and Twitter convinced itself he was a diamond in the rough that the Vegas Golden Knights were too stupid to recognize what they had?

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53 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is off topic, but why do people keep bringing up Jon Merrill?

He’s 28 and has never established himself as an NHL regular. Never.

Did someone once post a bar graph that had a lot of blue in it and Twitter convinced itself he was a diamond in the rough that the Vegas Golden Knights were too stupid to recognize what they had?

Maybe, but I feel like often when you see a regurgitation of names it's because people can be slightly weary of suggesting new names for concern of being shot down or looking like an noob. I've been watching hockey my entire life and I'll still hesitate to suggest someone new.

Edited by Thorny
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This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

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