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Jason Botterill, end of season presser 2019/2020


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In a vacuum it's not that bad of a press conference. He had one or two weekly appearances during February that were absolutely horrendous compared to this one. 

An annoying tendency of his is to repeatedly talk about the model - we want young players constantly coming in, being developed filling holes and becoming parts of or supplements to the core. That is fantastic - it's also the most basic, baseline organizational goal that anyone could ever imagine, and not one GM or organization has ever operated as if this wasn't the goal on the hockey end. Teams that are good, like Tampa, or Boston, or Washington, do it successfully for years, and win a lot of games while doing it. We suck at it. He talks about this over and over again, every time he speaks. Then he'll cite "the development of our young players" and "the success of Rochester," ignoring that any GM can bring in 27 yo AHL lifers to make the AHL team good, and that Victor Olofsson is the only skater who's come close to following this theoretical path in the last three seasons, and that Casey and Tage are the only two skaters in the organization to have the potential to take this path, aside from Victor, over Jason's tenure. (Maybe Murray's pick Asplund, but he is a bad NHLer so far and has been dangled in trades.) It's literally all just talk, basic common sense buzzwords and phrases, with three years of nothing remotely like it happening, while many of our competitors do it better and have better records in the meantime 

We once again are going to lean to some degree too much on a trio of young guys who have never shown themselves to be not-bad NHLers. It will once again not work, just because that never works. One might stick, two if we're insanely lucky. But the chances of development being harmed even more than it has been, for one or more of these skaters, is far higher. 

Kim made me think we had some juicy moves lined up. Jason kinda put a damper on this. I don't think we are going to have a 2C during Jason's tenure as Sabres GM aside from the one he traded for Berglund, Sobotka, a lotto protected pick, a 2nd three years out, and the Blues' 5th best prospect, Tage Thompson

Jason talked about playing well in the 5-6 games before the pause. We played Colorado quite well. Lost. Then got our butts kicked the rest of the way, with some of the worst games of the year. If you want numbers to back that, had the worst goal differential in the league during those couple/few weeks that he refers to, and the worst expected goal metrics in the league to go with them. Dead last in both what matters, and the things that try to predict future things that matter. What planet is he on?


The other annoying thing he always does is refer to stretches of 2-3 weeks of good hockey. Jason, all bad teams can find 4 good stretches of hockey over a span of 3 bad years, especially considering he is referring to some stretches of 3-4 games. The tank Sabres went 10-3-3 at one point. That is not evidence that sustainable hockey is coming at some point, especially with how critically flawed the roster is. It's only evidence that sometimes Jack can score at a 130 point pace for a few weeks, and sometimes Hutton can play like a vezina goalie for a month. That's literally it. Overall, your team has a comfortable spot in dead last for all offensive chance generation metrics that exist, throughout the entirety of your tenure. Until that goes from easily-last to pretty good, your team will suck. Like I say, Tage lifting weight (and everyone that tells me he put on 9 pounds of muscle in one offseason and will be capable of doing something like that again is fooling themselves, there is zero chance a human who isn't starting with literally zero muscle can do that and pass a PED test) is not going to be the difference here, and neither is Mitts getting better, unless by "getting better" you mean becoming a top-end NHL 2C, and there is a chasm of develoment between that and where he is now

The reality is, this guy thought that each of his last three teams would finish 15-20 points higher than they did, because that would make his goals and justifications make sense. As it stands now, his quoting of either stupid things that don't matter (isolated stretches of good hockey, sometimes as small as 4 games) or random stuff he had nothing to do with (Eichel and Sam continuing natural development as evidence for his model of youngsters working, ignoring the possibly irrreparable damage his decisions have done to Casey and Tage, and the lack of anything serious beyond them) is laughable. He clings to them because they're the only things that exist that he can pretend match the outline that a dedicated 9 year old NHL fan could draw up in equivalent detail, even though their existence has helped us only to seasons that haven't matched the fireable seasons of his predecessor. 

If a serious 2C trade doesn't happen this offseason then he is the worst GM in franchise history

 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think we are going to have a 2C during Jason's tenure as Sabres GM aside from the one he traded for Berglund, Sobotka, a lotto protected pick, a 2nd three years out, and the Blues' 5th best prospect, Tage Thompson

Jason talked about playing well in the 5-6 games before the pause. We played Colorado quite well. Lost. Then got our butts kicked the rest of the way, with some of the worst games of the year. If you want numbers to back that, had the worst goal differential in the league during those couple/few weeks that he refers to, and the worst expected goal metrics in the league to go with them. Dead last in both what matters, and the things that try to predict future things that matter. What planet is he on?

If a serious 2C trade doesn't happen this offseason then he is the worst GM in franchise history

First bolded, this is my conclusion, too. Realized a while ago he's just not capable/interested enough in acquiring this crucial piece. 

The second paragraph..I just don't understand why he says that. Is it that he doesn't actually understand how bad they were in that stretch? Is he THAT deluded? That would be, an inarguably way-false reading of those games. Or is he just lying, thinking the fans are too stupid to look it up? It's honestly so weird. Is the press conference's goal to instill confidence? How could this be possible when the GM is outright lying or laughably mistaken? 

Second bold - I also agree with that conclusion. 

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40 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

In a vacuum it's not that bad of a press conference. He had one or two weekly appearances during February that were absolutely horrendous compared to this one. 

An annoying tendency of his is to repeatedly talk about the model - we want young players constantly coming in, being developed filling holes and becoming parts of or supplements to the core. That is fantastic - it's also the most basic, baseline organizational goal that anyone could ever imagine, and not one GM or organization has ever operated as if this wasn't the goal on the hockey end. Teams that are good, like Tampa, or Boston, or Washington, do it successfully for years, and win a lot of games while doing it. We suck at it. He talks about this over and over again, every time he speaks. Then he'll cite "the development of our young players" and "the success of Rochester," ignoring that any GM can bring in 27 yo AHL lifers to make the AHL team good, and that Victor Olofsson is the only skater who's come close to following this theoretical path in the last three seasons, and that Casey and Tage are the only two skaters in the organization to have the potential to take this path, aside from Victor, over Jason's tenure. (Maybe Murray's pick Asplund, but he is a bad NHLer so far and has been dangled in trades.) It's literally all just talk, basic common sense buzzwords and phrases, with three years of nothing remotely like it happening, while many of our competitors do it better and have better records in the meantime 

We once again are going to lean to some degree too much on a trio of young guys who have never shown themselves to be not-bad NHLers. It will once again not work, just because that never works. One might stick, two if we're insanely lucky. But the chances of development being harmed even more than it has been, for one or more of these skaters, is far higher. 

Kim made me think we had some juicy moves lined up. Jason kinda put a damper on this. I don't think we are going to have a 2C during Jason's tenure as Sabres GM aside from the one he traded for Berglund, Sobotka, a lotto protected pick, a 2nd three years out, and the Blues' 5th best prospect, Tage Thompson

Jason talked about playing well in the 5-6 games before the pause. We played Colorado quite well. Lost. Then got our butts kicked the rest of the way, with some of the worst games of the year. If you want numbers to back that, had the worst goal differential in the league during those couple/few weeks that he refers to, and the worst expected goal metrics in the league to go with them. Dead last in both what matters, and the things that try to predict future things that matter. What planet is he on?


The other annoying thing he always does is refer to stretches of 2-3 weeks of good hockey. Jason, all bad teams can find 4 good stretches of hockey over a span of 3 bad years, especially considering he is referring to some stretches of 3-4 games. The tank Sabres went 10-3-3 at one point. That is not evidence that sustainable hockey is coming at some point, especially with how critically flawed the roster is. It's only evidence that sometimes Jack can score at a 130 point pace for a few weeks, and sometimes Hutton can play like a vezina goalie for a month. That's literally it. Overall, your team has a comfortable spot in dead last for all offensive chance generation metrics that exist, throughout the entirety of your tenure. Until that goes from easily-last to pretty good, your team will suck. Like I say, Tage lifting weight (and everyone that tells me he put on 9 pounds of muscle in one offseason and will be capable of doing something like that again is fooling themselves, there is zero chance a human who isn't starting with literally zero muscle can do that and pass a PED test) is not going to be the difference here, and neither is Mitts getting better, unless by "getting better" you mean becoming a top-end NHL 2C, and there is a chasm of develoment between that and where he is now

The reality is, this guy thought that each of his last three teams would finish 15-20 points higher than they did, because that would make his goals and justifications make sense. As it stands now, his quoting of either stupid things that don't matter (isolated stretches of good hockey, sometimes as small as 4 games) or random stuff he had nothing to do with (Eichel and Sam continuing natural development as evidence for his model of youngsters working, ignoring the possibly irrreparable damage his decisions have done to Casey and Tage, and the lack of anything serious beyond them) is laughable. He clings to them because they're the only things that exist that he can pretend match the outline that a dedicated 9 year old NHL fan could draw up in equivalent detail, even though their existence has helped us only to seasons that haven't matched the fireable seasons of his predecessor. 

If a serious 2C trade doesn't happen this offseason then he is the worst GM in franchise history
 

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The thing that was disconcerting was Simmonds being brought up on multiple occasions.  This isn't the Simmonds from even 3 years ago who was still a force.  This is washed up Rob Neidermayer Simmonds we've got.

He can't be the source of veteran leadership.  (And he WAS a favorite player of mine.)

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Just now, Taro T said:

The thing that was disconcerting was Simmonds being brought up on multiple occasions.  This isn't the Simmonds from even 3 years ago who was still a force.  This is washed up Rob Neidermayer Simmonds we've got.

He can't be the source of veteran leadership.  (And he WAS a favorite player of mine.)

Wayne wants to stay too.

2x2 mil and a 3rw slot locked up coming soon to theaters near you

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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

Like I say, Tage lifting weight (and everyone that tells me he put on 9 pounds of muscle in one offseason and will be capable of doing something like that again is fooling themselves, there is zero chance a human who isn't starting with literally zero muscle can do that and pass a PED test)

I agree with everything you said except for this.  It is definitely possible to add ~10 lbs of muscle in 4+ months if you are on the lean side (Tage has been) and have easy access to the highest level training and nutrition (Tage does).  Especially if the starting point for this is the end of a pro hockey season, during which guys get worn down and sometimes actually lose weight.

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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Wayne wants to stay too.

2x2 mil and a 3rw slot locked up coming soon to theaters near you

That's just depressing.  The only way THAT gets worse is if the 2nd year has a NTC associated with it so he becomes one of the 7 protected forwards.

Why is it so hard to just get 2 upgrades: a true 2C & a backup goalie? Bring them both in & everybody here is decrying the new playoff format because the Sabres wouldn't be getting credit for having earned (possibly barely, but still) a playoff spot after 8 years in the wilderness but rather they'd've been arguably gifted it.

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8 minutes ago, Curt said:

I agree with everything you said except for this.  It is definitely possible to add ~10 lbs of muscle in 4+ months if you are on the lean side (Tage has been) and have easy access to the highest level training and nutrition (Tage does).  Especially if the starting point for this is the end of a pro hockey season, during which guys get worn down and sometimes actually lose weight.

Without PEDs my guess is you can do a max of ~12 pounds of pure muscle with dedicated training geared not towards athletic performance but hypertrophy, along with rigorous diet enforcement

Subtract 3-5 lbs each ensuing year 

And tage isn't bodybuilding and we are talking 3-4 months

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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

In a vacuum it's not that bad of a press conference. He had one or two weekly appearances during February that were absolutely horrendous compared to this one. 

An annoying tendency of his is to repeatedly talk about the model - we want young players constantly coming in, being developed filling holes and becoming parts of or supplements to the core. That is fantastic - it's also the most basic, baseline organizational goal that anyone could ever imagine, and not one GM or organization has ever operated as if this wasn't the goal on the hockey end. Teams that are good, like Tampa, or Boston, or Washington, do it successfully for years, and win a lot of games while doing it. We suck at it. He talks about this over and over again, every time he speaks. Then he'll cite "the development of our young players" and "the success of Rochester," ignoring that any GM can bring in 27 yo AHL lifers to make the AHL team good, and that Victor Olofsson is the only skater who's come close to following this theoretical path in the last three seasons, and that Casey and Tage are the only two skaters in the organization to have the potential to take this path, aside from Victor, over Jason's tenure. (Maybe Murray's pick Asplund, but he is a bad NHLer so far and has been dangled in trades.) It's literally all just talk, basic common sense buzzwords and phrases, with three years of nothing remotely like it happening, while many of our competitors do it better and have better records in the meantime 

We once again are going to lean to some degree too much on a trio of young guys who have never shown themselves to be not-bad NHLers. It will once again not work, just because that never works. One might stick, two if we're insanely lucky. But the chances of development being harmed even more than it has been, for one or more of these skaters, is far higher. 

Kim made me think we had some juicy moves lined up. Jason kinda put a damper on this. I don't think we are going to have a 2C during Jason's tenure as Sabres GM aside from the one he traded for Berglund, Sobotka, a lotto protected pick, a 2nd three years out, and the Blues' 5th best prospect, Tage Thompson

Jason talked about playing well in the 5-6 games before the pause. We played Colorado quite well. Lost. Then got our butts kicked the rest of the way, with some of the worst games of the year. If you want numbers to back that, had the worst goal differential in the league during those couple/few weeks that he refers to, and the worst expected goal metrics in the league to go with them. Dead last in both what matters, and the things that try to predict future things that matter. What planet is he on?


The other annoying thing he always does is refer to stretches of 2-3 weeks of good hockey. Jason, all bad teams can find 4 good stretches of hockey over a span of 3 bad years, especially considering he is referring to some stretches of 3-4 games. The tank Sabres went 10-3-3 at one point. That is not evidence that sustainable hockey is coming at some point, especially with how critically flawed the roster is. It's only evidence that sometimes Jack can score at a 130 point pace for a few weeks, and sometimes Hutton can play like a vezina goalie for a month. That's literally it. Overall, your team has a comfortable spot in dead last for all offensive chance generation metrics that exist, throughout the entirety of your tenure. Until that goes from easily-last to pretty good, your team will suck. Like I say, Tage lifting weight (and everyone that tells me he put on 9 pounds of muscle in one offseason and will be capable of doing something like that again is fooling themselves, there is zero chance a human who isn't starting with literally zero muscle can do that and pass a PED test) is not going to be the difference here, and neither is Mitts getting better, unless by "getting better" you mean becoming a top-end NHL 2C, and there is a chasm of develoment between that and where he is now

The reality is, this guy thought that each of his last three teams would finish 15-20 points higher than they did, because that would make his goals and justifications make sense. As it stands now, his quoting of either stupid things that don't matter (isolated stretches of good hockey, sometimes as small as 4 games) or random stuff he had nothing to do with (Eichel and Sam continuing natural development as evidence for his model of youngsters working, ignoring the possibly irrreparable damage his decisions have done to Casey and Tage, and the lack of anything serious beyond them) is laughable. He clings to them because they're the only things that exist that he can pretend match the outline that a dedicated 9 year old NHL fan could draw up in equivalent detail, even though their existence has helped us only to seasons that haven't matched the fireable seasons of his predecessor. 

If a serious 2C trade doesn't happen this offseason then he is the worst GM in franchise history

 

Forget that: I can't think of a GM who did as much damage to a franchise as Botts did in 3 seasons and who probably destroyed them for the following 5 seasons since Mad Mike destroyed the Islanders. Even Chia is better on the bumbling dumpster fire buffoon scale then Botts. 

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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

In a vacuum it's not that bad of a press conference. He had one or two weekly appearances during February that were absolutely horrendous compared to this one. 

An annoying tendency of his is to repeatedly talk about the model - we want young players constantly coming in, being developed filling holes and becoming parts of or supplements to the core. That is fantastic - it's also the most basic, baseline organizational goal that anyone could ever imagine, and not one GM or organization has ever operated as if this wasn't the goal on the hockey end. Teams that are good, like Tampa, or Boston, or Washington, do it successfully for years, and win a lot of games while doing it. We suck at it. He talks about this over and over again, every time he speaks. Then he'll cite "the development of our young players" and "the success of Rochester," ignoring that any GM can bring in 27 yo AHL lifers to make the AHL team good, and that Victor Olofsson is the only skater who's come close to following this theoretical path in the last three seasons, and that Casey and Tage are the only two skaters in the organization to have the potential to take this path, aside from Victor, over Jason's tenure. (Maybe Murray's pick Asplund, but he is a bad NHLer so far and has been dangled in trades.) It's literally all just talk, basic common sense buzzwords and phrases, with three years of nothing remotely like it happening, while many of our competitors do it better and have better records in the meantime 

We once again are going to lean to some degree too much on a trio of young guys who have never shown themselves to be not-bad NHLers. It will once again not work, just because that never works. One might stick, two if we're insanely lucky. But the chances of development being harmed even more than it has been, for one or more of these skaters, is far higher. 

Kim made me think we had some juicy moves lined up. Jason kinda put a damper on this. I don't think we are going to have a 2C during Jason's tenure as Sabres GM aside from the one he traded for Berglund, Sobotka, a lotto protected pick, a 2nd three years out, and the Blues' 5th best prospect, Tage Thompson

Jason talked about playing well in the 5-6 games before the pause. We played Colorado quite well. Lost. Then got our butts kicked the rest of the way, with some of the worst games of the year. If you want numbers to back that, had the worst goal differential in the league during those couple/few weeks that he refers to, and the worst expected goal metrics in the league to go with them. Dead last in both what matters, and the things that try to predict future things that matter. What planet is he on?


The other annoying thing he always does is refer to stretches of 2-3 weeks of good hockey. Jason, all bad teams can find 4 good stretches of hockey over a span of 3 bad years, especially considering he is referring to some stretches of 3-4 games. The tank Sabres went 10-3-3 at one point. That is not evidence that sustainable hockey is coming at some point, especially with how critically flawed the roster is. It's only evidence that sometimes Jack can score at a 130 point pace for a few weeks, and sometimes Hutton can play like a vezina goalie for a month. That's literally it. Overall, your team has a comfortable spot in dead last for all offensive chance generation metrics that exist, throughout the entirety of your tenure. Until that goes from easily-last to pretty good, your team will suck. Like I say, Tage lifting weight (and everyone that tells me he put on 9 pounds of muscle in one offseason and will be capable of doing something like that again is fooling themselves, there is zero chance a human who isn't starting with literally zero muscle can do that and pass a PED test) is not going to be the difference here, and neither is Mitts getting better, unless by "getting better" you mean becoming a top-end NHL 2C, and there is a chasm of develoment between that and where he is now

The reality is, this guy thought that each of his last three teams would finish 15-20 points higher than they did, because that would make his goals and justifications make sense. As it stands now, his quoting of either stupid things that don't matter (isolated stretches of good hockey, sometimes as small as 4 games) or random stuff he had nothing to do with (Eichel and Sam continuing natural development as evidence for his model of youngsters working, ignoring the possibly irrreparable damage his decisions have done to Casey and Tage, and the lack of anything serious beyond them) is laughable. He clings to them because they're the only things that exist that he can pretend match the outline that a dedicated 9 year old NHL fan could draw up in equivalent detail, even though their existence has helped us only to seasons that haven't matched the fireable seasons of his predecessor. 

If a serious 2C trade doesn't happen this offseason then he is the worst GM in franchise history

 

 

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The idea Botts destroyed the Sabres akin to Milbury on the Island is a tad overkill. 

The ROR trade was a monumental failure and at best could be only a bad trade if Tage and Johnson figure things out in the long run. However regardless of what happened with the Blues, the Sabres jettison a handful of great players & prospects for a singular over-hyped center or draft a goalie 1st Overall with an already star young goalie in their pipeline. 

That being said he hasn't done well either but I'd temper the "end is nigh" sentiments for now. COVID-19 saved his job, let us see what he does with it. I pray we get more of the Jokiharju variety and less of the Vesey or ROR type.

What seems so strange to me is how he can bumble so many different things yet pull off that Kahun trade. Maybe he has like one pro scout whose incredibly gifted and thus creates these anomalous top tier deals.  

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We don’t even need more deals like the Jokiharju one (not JUST more of those, I should say). I’d be shocked if his WAR is above 1. It’s a nice add, maybe even better in the long term, but we need immediate impact additions. It’s not even like Nylander wasn’t decent in Chicago.

Kahun deal is of the same variety. It’s one of Botterill’s “fine” depth adds that doesn’t mean anything until the bigger holes are filled. 

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36 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

The idea Botts destroyed the Sabres akin to Milbury on the Island is a tad overkill. 

The ROR trade was a monumental failure and at best could be only a bad trade if Tage and Johnson figure things out in the long run. However regardless of what happened with the Blues, the Sabres jettison a handful of great players & prospects for a singular over-hyped center or draft a goalie 1st Overall with an already star young goalie in their pipeline. 

That being said he hasn't done well either but I'd temper the "end is nigh" sentiments for now. COVID-19 saved his job, let us see what he does with it. I pray we get more of the Jokiharju variety and less of the Vesey or ROR type.

What seems so strange to me is how he can bumble so many different things yet pull off that Kahun trade. Maybe he has like one pro scout whose incredibly gifted and thus creates these anomalous top tier deals.  

The trade created a hole in our roster that basically killed our last two seasons and (unless an NHL quality center magically falls out of the sky into our laps) will probably wreck the next 2-3. Botts has assembled a cap max team filled with really bad players and a prospect pool filled with almost nothing but "fringe NHL player at best" types. And then there's his hoarding of RHD the way crazy cat ladies hoard cats, which caused a needless glut that only put the team in position to be low balled because everyone knows there's no room for all of them.

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If this team wasn't almost last it all shot metrics while adding players like Frolik and Simmonds throughout the year, having a coach talk about quality chances and how we need to finish more of them (we don't, we need to generate more of them), and this press conference basically reinforcing the notion that Botterill doesn't see the problem... well I might actually want hockey to come back. Right now though, I feel completely hopeless for this team. If they make the playoffs it will be because Dahlin and Eichel will them there not because the GM built a good enough team to get them there. 

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On 5/27/2020 at 9:39 PM, Curt said:

I agree with everything you said except for this.  It is definitely possible to add ~10 lbs of muscle in 4+ months if you are on the lean side (Tage has been) and have easy access to the highest level training and nutrition (Tage does).  Especially if the starting point for this is the end of a pro hockey season, during which guys get worn down and sometimes actually lose weight.

Tage is on a strict diet of nutritious rainbows:rainbow licking GIF

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7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Finally watched it.

Jason firmly believes his path to redemption lies with Mitts Tage Dylan Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And there is almost no way Wayne Simmonds isn’t a Sabre next year.

They must be laughing their butts off in Pittsburgh. 

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On 5/27/2020 at 9:39 PM, Curt said:

I agree with everything you said except for this.  It is definitely possible to add ~10 lbs of muscle in 4+ months if you are on the lean side (Tage has been) and have easy access to the highest level training and nutrition (Tage does).  Especially if the starting point for this is the end of a pro hockey season, during which guys get worn down and sometimes actually lose weight.

Agreed.  Guys 22 years old and built like a twig, get him eating a bunch more each day and having serious workouts - should be no problem.  6'5 205 -> 220 should be pretty attainable.   The key is how to make it functional strength for hockey. 

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25 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Agreed.  Guys 22 years old and built like a twig, get him eating a bunch more each day and having serious workouts - should be no problem.  6'5 205 -> 220 should be pretty attainable.   The key is how to make it functional strength for hockey. 

It’s done. He’s been at it for more than a year now and said he is 225 pushing 230.

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On 5/27/2020 at 11:53 AM, LGR4GM said:

"At forward we are still currently a work in progress." He then specifically mentions Tage, Casey, and Dylan as forwards to develop. 

... yea no *****. 

If that's the best he's got, fire him now.

 

 

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