dudacek Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said: I agree with the caveat that GMs also want to treat their key players fairly. Arbitration rights and the ability to "go home" give certain guys more leverage then others, but in general contracts $ and term are going to be much smaller for both RFAs and UFAs this off-season. Key RFAs Q-offers according to capfriendly.com Kahun - $874,125 (1.05 * base of 832,500), but has Arbitration rights Lazar - 735,000 (1.05 * 700K), but has Arbitration rights Mittelstadt - $874,125 (1.05 * base of 832,500) Montour - $3,525,000 (100% of last year), but has Arbitration rights Olofsson - $735,000 (1.05 * base of 700K), but has Arbitration rights Reinhart - $3,750,000, but has Arbitration rights Thompson - $874,125 Ullmark - $1,325,000, but has Arbitration rights As you can see most of our guys have arbitration rights. It could be a very long summer and fall for our rookie GM. Arbitration will be interesting. How will the effects of COVID-19 be accounted for in the process? If not, will we see more teams walking away? I agree GMs should play nice, but they have options. If Montour gets awarded $5million, and the Sabres walk away, is he going to get $5 million from someone else? Doubt it. And will the Sabres be able to reinvest that $5 million into a better player? There are a ton of moving parts. As to the bold, Adams has little experience as a hockey executive, but he plenty of experience as a business executive. I'm curious as to how well that translates to contracts. Edited July 14, 2020 by dudacek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said: My point is whether and how the lack of cash flow from the wells could affect how the Sabres are managed. Their cash flow is not from wells. It is from investment of their fortune. I still do not believe they have a cash flow problem. In these days of COVID who would blame them for cutting back. It's smart business anytime. I just don't buy that they need to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 Just now, New Scotland (NS) said: Their cash flow is not from wells. It is from investment of their fortune. I still do not believe they have a cash flow problem. In these days of COVID who would blame them for cutting back. It's smart business anytime. I just don't buy that they need to. Terry laughed at the cash flow trouble suggestion during the Adams presser. Whether or not the organizational streamlining applies to the roster is the $81.5 million question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, dudacek said: Terry laughed at the cash flow trouble suggestion during the Adams presser. Whether or not the organizational streamlining applies to the roster is the $81.5 million question. Yup. And I believe the Sabres will he a cap team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said: Their cash flow is not from wells. It is from investment of their fortune. I still do not believe they have a cash flow problem. In these days of COVID who would blame them for cutting back. It's smart business anytime. I just don't buy that they need to. Disagree that the downturn (collapse) of the energy industry isn’t affecting their liquidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tondas Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 Terry and Kim are not hurting for money, but they are concerned. The, "I'll drill another well" is coming back to haunt them. Even billionaires can learn life lessons. Ego and arrogance need to be kept in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 Are the Bills profitable? Do they make "passive income" from investments? 44 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said: Disagree that the downturn (collapse) of the energy industry isn’t affecting their liquidity. Don't you think Terry was smart enough to see energy trends coming? Isn't that why he cashed in in 2011? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said: I agree with the caveat that GMs also want to treat their key players fairly. Arbitration rights and the ability to "go home" give certain guys more leverage then others, but in general contracts $ and term are going to be much smaller for both RFAs and UFAs this off-season. Key RFAs Q-offers according to capfriendly.com Kahun - $874,125 (1.05 * base of 832,500), but has Arbitration rights Lazar - 735,000 (1.05 * 700K), but has Arbitration rights Mittelstadt - $874,125 (1.05 * base of 832,500) Montour - $3,525,000 (100% of last year), but has Arbitration rights Olofsson - $735,000 (1.05 * base of 700K), but has Arbitration rights Reinhart - $3,750,000, but has Arbitration rights Thompson - $874,125 Ullmark - $1,325,000, but has Arbitration rights As you can see most of our guys have arbitration rights. It could be a very long summer and fall for our rookie GM. Taking this a little further, would the Sabres be crazy to trade every RFA they can’t sign to a discount contract for futures, then use those futures and all $34 million at their disposal on the discount free agent market and “helping” other teams with their cap troubles? Basically a web of deals where you end up with Boeser at 5.7 instead of Reinhart at 6.7, Monahan at $6.5 instead of Montour at $4.5, etc, for example? Edited July 14, 2020 by dudacek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, dudacek said: You're not wrong, but you're missing the big picture. Everybody has to fill out their roster The Sabres have nearly $3 million to spend per roster spot. The league average is under $2 million. Some teams (Leafs Barrie, Bolts Cirelli, Blues Pietrangelo, Canucks Markstrom, Coyotes Hall to name a few) literally do not have the space to re-sign a key piece without sacrificing another key piece or pieces, or pay a premium to dump bad contracts. Few teams have the space to sign free agents or take on bad contracts. Those that do will be looking at the best buyer's market for player acquisition in recent memory. You are astute and perspicacious. What is made evident with your wise commentary is if this bedraggled franchise acts smartly and seizes the opportunities available in the market this team can be meaningfully improved. It's not about spending unwisely as it is about being judicious with your resources. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 hours ago, dudacek said: You're not wrong, but you're missing the big picture. Everybody has to fill out their roster The Sabres have nearly $3 million to spend per roster spot. The league average is under $2 million. Some teams (Leafs Barrie, Bolts Cirelli, Blues Pietrangelo, Canucks Markstrom, Coyotes Hall to name a few) literally do not have the space to re-sign a key piece without sacrificing another key piece or pieces, or pay a premium to dump bad contracts. Few teams have the space to sign free agents or take on bad contracts. Those that do will be looking at the best buyer's market for player acquisition in recent memory. I think you're missing the bigger picture, which is that players don't want to go to a team that needs to sign half a roster. I think players are much more likely to sign with a team that has been competitive, or is very close to being competitive. They will want to be that last piece on a good team and they will shun the Sabres to do it. Who wants to be the first player to sign with Buffalo? I bet a lot of agents will be encouraging their clients to hold out on Buffalo/ look elsewhere, since it's going to be a buyers market anyway. I don't think this situation is advantageous for Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, darksabre said: I think you're missing the bigger picture, which is that players don't want to go to a team that needs to sign half a roster. I think players are much more likely to sign with a team that has been competitive, or is very close to being competitive. They will want to be that last piece on a good team and they will shun the Sabres to do it. Who wants to be the first player to sign with Buffalo? I bet a lot of agents will be encouraging their clients to hold out on Buffalo/ look elsewhere, since it's going to be a buyers market anyway. I don't think this situation is advantageous for Buffalo. I think you significantly underestimate the number of players who just want money. There are plenty who will sign with Buffalo if that's where the best offer come from. And there will be plenty of good players who fall into that category too. This should be an interesting year to watch because I think the short term cash out mentality may be at the highest level it's ever been thanks to all the uncertainty. It may very well be over much smaller amounts of money than in the past too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken Ankles Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, darksabre said: I think you're missing the bigger picture, which is that players don't want to go to a team that needs to sign half a roster. I think players are much more likely to sign with a team that has been competitive, or is very close to being competitive. They will want to be that last piece on a good team and they will shun the Sabres to do it. Who wants to be the first player to sign with Buffalo? I bet a lot of agents will be encouraging their clients to hold out on Buffalo/ look elsewhere, since it's going to be a buyers market anyway. I don't think this situation is advantageous for Buffalo. I think you will find that some of the holes will be filled over the Draft weekend in October, before street agents can be signed. There will probably be some RFA arbitration (maybe Linus, Reinhart or Kahun) that lingers or adds doubt, but there will be a general sense of what the 2021 roster will look like before UFA signings begin. I personally believe that Montour, Risto and Mitts are all traded before UFA opens, and at least two players under contract are added to the current Roster. As for free agency itself, it's unlikely the Sabres make a big splash and bid on one of these players who can spurn them if they had been interested. It's likely that these players are still going to get paid, and go to team that is either more competitive or one that overpays. And when they do, it will drive down the cost of the remaining pool of UFA's. Still operating under a Cap. And honestly, it might be a situation where playing the waiting game could pay even bigger dividends. Teams that don't free up the space on draft weekend to sign pending RFA's might be forced to accept a trade that otherwise would have been rejected. I think Cap space is paramount in negotiations this off-season. More so than any year in recent memory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, darksabre said: I think you're missing the bigger picture, which is that players don't want to go to a team that needs to sign half a roster. I think players are much more likely to sign with a team that has been competitive, or is very close to being competitive. They will want to be that last piece on a good team and they will shun the Sabres to do it. Who wants to be the first player to sign with Buffalo? I bet a lot of agents will be encouraging their clients to hold out on Buffalo/ look elsewhere, since it's going to be a buyers market anyway. I don't think this situation is advantageous for Buffalo. Again, there’s truth in this, but the other options for a big payday are In New Jersey, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal and Ottawa. The Toronto’s and Tampa’s don’t have jobs available, even at discount rates. It’s a game of musical chairs with a lot more butts than chairs - the Wayne Simmonds of the world will eventually run out of options and their agents should be reminding them of the bird in the hand, two in the bush saying. Even if I’m wrong there, that leaves the whole RFA/players under contract scenario. Maybe they add the likes of a Killorn or a Stepan essentially for free in cap-dump trades. Maybe they can make a deal for a good player who otherwise would not have been on the market, like a Cirelli or a Gaudreau. There will be more players on the market and fewer GMs able to buy. Maybe Adams can’t capitalize, but that is definitely an advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, shrader said: I think you significantly underestimate the number of players who just want money. There are plenty who will sign with Buffalo if that's where the best offer come from. And there will be plenty of good players who fall into that category too. This should be an interesting year to watch because I think the short term cash out mentality may be at the highest level it's ever been thanks to all the uncertainty. It may very well be over much smaller amounts of money than in the past too. I don't know if the Sabres being a team that can pay players more money for less term is generally an advantage either. Typically you want to be able to offer term to keep costs lower. But if players are looking at the market and saying "I'm not going to get that much more from the Sabres" I think they'll be more inclined to sign 1 year deals for less money on better teams that let them boost their earning potential for the next FA cycle. I think the only players who might be interested in short term for more cash with the (very bad!) Sabres are players who aren't sure they're going to be able to do better in a year. Guys who are close to washed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 hours ago, dudacek said: Taking this a little further, would the Sabres be crazy to trade every RFA they can’t sign to a discount contract for futures, then use those futures and all $34 million at their disposal on the discount free agent market and “helping” other teams with their cap troubles? Basically a web of deals where you end up with Boeser at 5.7 instead of Reinhart at 6.7, Monahan at $6.5 instead of Montour at $4.5, etc, for example? I proposed a similar plan in the off-season gameplan thread to get both a 2C and 2RW and that involved trading away Miller and one of Montour or Risto to finance acquiring Kadri and Toffoli. I'd rather get Kahun and Olofsson under contract and trade away our excess RDs and focus on a core 4 of Joki, Dahlin, McCabe and either Montour or Risto and then sign competent and inexpensive D depth like Ben Hutton, Jon Merrill etc to paly the 3rd pairing to make the cap work. Adams would be wise to get the kids under depressed contracts asap and let them out play them for the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas23 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 hours ago, PASabreFan said: Are the Bills profitable? Do they make "passive income" from investments? Don't you think Terry was smart enough to see energy trends coming? Isn't that why he cashed in in 2011? Yep. Energy is a very cyclical industry. If he hasn’t recognized that by now, he wouldn’t be an owner of professional sport teams. My guess is that the majority of his assets are tied into non-energy at this point. Nevertheless, it appears the Sabres are losing a good amount of money yearly. No business person would like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 17 hours ago, PASabreFan said: Don't you think Terry was smart enough to see energy trends coming? Isn't that why he cashed in in 2011? Were the people who invested in the hotel, airline and restaurant business smart enough to predict that there was gong to be a pernicious pandemic? The Pegulas were to an extent cashing out of the energy business and diversifying into other businesses. They were not able to see into the future like everyone else wasn't able to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 17 hours ago, darksabre said: I think you're missing the bigger picture, which is that players don't want to go to a team that needs to sign half a roster. I think players are much more likely to sign with a team that has been competitive, or is very close to being competitive. They will want to be that last piece on a good team and they will shun the Sabres to do it. Who wants to be the first player to sign with Buffalo? I bet a lot of agents will be encouraging their clients to hold out on Buffalo/ look elsewhere, since it's going to be a buyers market anyway. I don't think this situation is advantageous for Buffalo. I don't see the players as having any advantage money wise; there is less money/cap space to fight for; except for a handful of teams. Any leverage they have with term, many players will have problems negotiating salaries. Some may not "want" to sign first but playing safe 6 mil over 5 years is smarter than fighting for 6.6mil over 5 years and watching the cap space shrink to other contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kruppstahl Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 On 7/14/2020 at 1:14 PM, Tondas said: Terry and Kim are not hurting for money, but they are concerned. The, "I'll drill another well" is coming back to haunt them. Even billionaires can learn life lessons. Ego and arrogance need to be kept in check. The "I'll drill another well" era is straight up over. The current administration is as concerned about money as ANY past Sabres administration. Don't believe me? Just watch what they do in the upcoming months. Don't listen to them, watch what they do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 On 7/14/2020 at 9:37 AM, dudacek said: $34 million. The league average is $8 million. I know you're going to say "yeah, but Reinhart, Olofsson, Ullmark..." Exaggerating for effect, but why do we have to sign these guys for anything above their qualifying offers? Who else is going to be offering them big dollars? It's a new world out there. While other teams are struggling to unload contracts and sign building block players, we have options. We should be careful with Sam, though, as I’d term him a building block player we need to lock up LT. We risk losing him if not, I believe you yourself said you expect him traded if he’s entering into next summer with no deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, Thorny said: We should be careful with Sam, though, as I’d term him a building block player we need to lock up LT. We risk losing him if not, I believe you yourself said you expect him traded if he’s entering into next summer with no deal. I did, and I still believe that. And I generally agree with your post. Like I said, exaggerated to make a point. I would treat Sam fairly in post-COVID NHL. But if he gets greedy, I’m looking at options. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 I, for one, am really glad Terry Pegula isn't Dan Snyder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said: I, for one, am really glad Terry Pegula isn't Dan Snyder. ...and in the end, two different owners, but the same ***** results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, LabattBlue said: ...and in the end, two different owners, but the same ***** results. Ummm, seeing as how they both own NFL franchises and that is the only direct comparison you can make between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 Well, well, well. https://buffalonews.com/news/pegula-plans-stock-sale-to-raise-300-million-to-buy-energy-businesses/article_b3f3ecae-cb69-11ea-aa20-9760c74f17cc.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1 Buffalo Bills and Sabres owner Terry Pegula is looking to become a bigger player in the depressed oil and natural gas business. Pegula, who sold much of his natural gas business a decade ago at the peak of the industry's shale boom, now is planning to sell stock in a new venture that would raise $300 million from investors to purchase oil and natural gas businesses at a time when the energy industry is reeling. The new venture, called East Resources Acquisition Co., would be based in Pegula's hometown of Boca Raton, Fla. Pegula would be chairman, CEO and president of the new business, while his wife, Kim, would be a director. The Pegulas would own 20% of the new venture after the stock sale. All of the top executives in the new business currently are top officials at Pegula's other businesses. Pegula's plan is to use the money raised through the stock sale to build an energy business at a time when the value of energy companies and oil and gas properties have plummeted. +++ Not for nothing, I believe this is very much in-line with what someone posted upthread on this topic. Was it @JohnC? Buy low, dontchaknow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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