Johan Larsson, must be retained

[Tondas]

3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Pay Larry 4Mx3, put him between Skinner and Okposo. Boom, 2C solved! Kahun-Asplund-MoJo 3rd. Thompson-Lazar-Cozens/Simmonds 4th. Then, for depth, let Vesey walk, but trade our 2022 3rd round pick to get him back again. It's the circle of life!

Hard to pay Larry $4 million.  If Larry is worth $4 million, Sam's gonna want $8 million.

[Eleven]

47 minutes ago, Tondas said:

Hard to pay Larry $4 million.  If Larry is worth $4 million, Sam's gonna want $8 million.

It's insane to pay Larsson $4M.  Not hard; insane.

[dudacek]

I propose an addendum to the thread topic: Larsson must be retained if we can sign him for ____?

Guys like Larsson — who I think is among the league's most effective 4th-line centres — rarely get three years or $3 million per.

He's very good defensively, but he just doesn't score enough to be a legitimate 3rd-line centre.

Who are his comparables?

 

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I propose an addendum to the thread topic: Larsson must be retained if we can sign him for ____?

Guys like Larsson — who I think is among the league's most effective 4th-line centres — rarely get three years or $3 million per.

He's very good defensively, but he just doesn't score enough to be a legitimate 3rd-line centre.

Who are his comparables?

 

Larsson currently makes $1.555m. That’s exactly what he’s worth, even then it’s on the high end for a fourth liner who can’t put up 20 points. We don’t have the talent upfront to replace him without leaving a hole. I could stomach $2.25m, but that’s far too high for his role. However, the legend of Larry is so large around these parts that not signing him at that rate would make the board near unbearable. 

[Randall Flagg]

On 4/14/2020 at 9:19 AM, nfreeman said:

This sounds great but I'm kinda skeptical as to whether it actually happened.  Is there any data on this?  i.e. data showing that when Larsson's line was matched up against other teams' top lines, Larsson's line outscored those lines?  Or for that matter data showing that Larsson's line held other teams' top lines below their scoring averages?

Two of my favorite sites for gathering stats the way I like to do it are no longer up/running, so I will do the best I can with this, and am kind of setting up how I'm going to try and answer this question on the fly. For example, I can get stats on a whole line for the Sabres, but I can't parse those stats for their performance versus specific players and lines. 

Because of this, I'm just going to use Larsson himself, and gather information about his time on the ice against specific players on other teams. All 5v5. 71% of Larry's total ice time came with BOTH of these guys on the ice as well, and doesn't include those wonky shift-changes left Larry and Kyle out there with a different LW like Vesey, or Larry and Zemgus out there with Samson, or things like that, which are quite common during changes on the fly as any hockey fan has seen, where you can get half a line out there but are then hemmed in for a while. Ralph may have broken that line up for a game or a shift here and there, but that line was largely his preferred spot for each of those three players. So just focusing on Larsson is the best I can do at present, and hopefully that will be an acceptable representation of the LOG line's results. 

The individual forwards that Larsson has faced the most this season (by total minute) are, in order, William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Kasperi Kapanen, Nick Foligno, Alex Ovechkin, Alex Kerfoot, Tom Wilson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Tavares, Filppula & Bertuzzi on Detroit, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Evgeni Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brayden Point, Dylan Larkin. I got bored of scrolling and sifting through goalies and defensemen so I'm stopping here. I think we can all agree that this confirms Larry's role - try and slow down other team's top players. What I think I'll do is go through a bunch of teams and sum up Larsson's Corsi for/against, goals for/against, and expected goals for/against, versus one representative skater from the top line for each team, as I'd be double-counting things if I used both Matthews AND Nylander. That will give some stats for Larsson's performance which weed out his time playing against Gauthier and Stephenson and other 4th liners. There are only a few teams I need to worry about having multiple elite lines anyway, and it's pretty clear how to split those guys up. I'll use Stamkos and Point as two separate lines in our Tampa games, Tavares and Matthews for Toronto, Kuznetsov and Backstrom for Washington, Malkin and Sid for Pittsburgh. There may be more doubles which I'll specify when I find them. 

I've collected these stats for Larsson's ice time against:
TOR: Matthews and Tavares
BOS: Krejci (with Debrusk, secondary scoring - he played only 3 minutes against Bergeron this season through all 4 games combined, there's nothing interesting there)
MTL: Gallagher
DET: Larkin
TB: Kucherov (I wanted to do two lines for TB, but Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, and their other top 6 forwards all play with each other a lot, and so I cannot guarantee that I'm not double-counting data for this one, so I'm sticking with Kucherov, who he has played 13 minutes against this season)
FLA: Barkov
PIT: Malkin and Crosby (who have only played 22 total 5v5 minutes together through 68 games this season, and didn't against us from what I can tell)
WSH: Ovechkin (another team I wanted to make two lines for but could not separate the players)
PHI: Giroux (same deal)
CBJ: Dubois
NYR: Panarin
NYI: Lee (who was on a line with Barzal, though Larry played against Lee for about 2 minutes in excess of Barzal, which is why i chose him for increased sample size, neither player was on the ice for a goal for or against with Larry out there)
CAR: Staal (he didn't play against Aho/Tuevo for more than a minute or so in all the matchups combined)
NJ: Hall (debated throwing this one away as it was only for 4:01, Larry played against grinders in these games, but the Sabres did outscore the Devils 1-0 in that 4:01 - but i'll leave this player out of the data as I'd like to keep only players who he played at least 6 minutes against)
EDM: McDavid
COL: MacKinnon
DAL: Seguin
WPG: Scheifele
NSH: Forsberg
VGK: Marchessault
CGY: Tkachuk
ANA: Rakell (played on a line with Getzlaf, used Rakell because of another two minutes of data)

He didn't play against Chicago I think, as there was no data for Kane. He doesn't appear to have played against Minny either. I also didn't use Ottawa (no discernible "top lines," different every time we played them, no real superstars anyway) and he only got negligible minutes against non-grinders versus LA and Vancouver and San Jose. So those teams are missing.

Larsson played 256:11 against these skaters at 5v5 this season, which is about a third of his 5v5 ice time, against these skaters and their lines. More ice time than this third came against lines not mentioned, for example, whichever of Tampa's deadly top six lines didn't have Kucherov, or the same with Ovechkin (it appears that they used Ovie with Backstrom and Kuzy with Oshie in our games), or lines in those teams I didn't include, or the Laine/Ehlers line in Winnipeg, or any time Draisaitl may have been split from McD, or Kadri/Burakovsky, or Domi, Trocheck, etc, in addition to the times he did spend grinding along with other teams' bottom 6. Larsson basically spent 1/3rd of his 5v5 ice time against about 23 of the best skaters on the planet, and faces of the teams he played against that night.

In those 256:11 on ice, the Sabres had the following results:
226 Corsi for, 196 Corsi against, or a 53.55 CF%
12 goals for and 12 goals against, or a neutral +/-
10.67 xGF and 8.14 xGA, or a 56.73 xGF%

This is pretty ***** good. Restated another way, when Larry was on the ice with Matthews, Tavares, Krejci/Debrusk, Gallagher, Larkin, Kucherov, Barkov, Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Dubois, Panarin, Lee/Barzal, J. Staal, McDavid, MacKinnon, Seguin, Scheifele, Forsberg, Marchessault, M. Tkachuk, and Rakell/Getzlaf, the Sabres controlled the shot attempts, scoring chances, and kept the score even, while holding those skaters and their lines to just 12 goals in 256 minutes of 5v5 hockey. The other lines (mentioned above) were outscored by the Sabres to a tune of +8 while Larry was on the ice in those other minutes. 

He had his toughest games against Matthews, Ovechkin, and MacKinnon - Matthews' line scored twice against him in four meetings, and so did Ovie's in 2. He managed to hold MacKinnon's line scoreless in the two meetings, despite racking up 10 minutes against him, including in a game that we lost 6-1. He held Kucherov's line scoreless in over 13 minutes, his line outscored Barkov's 3-0 in 11 minutes, he broke even with Crosby and Malkin in 25 combined minutes (1-1, though out-corsi-ing them 24-14), Larry's line outscored McDavid's line 1-0 (17-6 Corsi) in 13 minutes over two games, and in 9 minutes against Scheifele they outscored them 2-0. His line better handled that of Tavares, with 2 goals to their 1, and a 13-5 shot attempt edge. It's interesting that Matthews and Ovie were impervious to the line's attempts to stop them - I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that those two can score at will from any location, rendering keep-them-outside tactics fairly useless. 

If we are confident that we can build a fourth line without Larry and Zemgus that is capable of eating a few hundred of these minutes against these skaters while breaking even on the scoreboard (and going above even otherwise), then we don't need to keep them. I look at the 4th lines of the 2012-2018 Sabres, next to Botterill depth acquisitions of the last three years and our prospect pool, and don't feel that confidence. 

[dudacek]

So Larsson appears to be a moneypuck acquisition — a player whose value clearly transcends his counting stats.

What does that translate to in terms of a cap hit?

And what team is going to bid high for them because they've run similar models to what @Randall Flagg just ran?

And will the Sabres forego any effort to keep him, because they didn't?

To me, it's in decisions like these where GMs prove their worth.

[Eleven]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What does that translate to in terms of a cap hit?

$2M or very slightly higher.   Not $4M (I know you are not the person who suggested that).

[Taro T]

44 minutes ago, Eleven said:

$2M or very slightly higher.   Not $4M (I know you are not the person who suggested that).

Would go as high as $2.25MM for him and $2.0MM for Girgensons.  Stinks having to have $10MM on the 4th line.  But considering they'll get more ice time than the 2nd line if no true 2C comes in and commensurate with it if 1 does; $10MM isn't outrageous.

Hopefully Botterill gets these 2 back.  

[LGR4GM]

Must. Be. Retained. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Must. Be. Retained. 

How much?

[DarthEbriate]

12 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Pay Larry 4Mx3, put him between Skinner and Okposo. Boom, 2C solved! Kahun-Asplund-MoJo 3rd. Thompson-Lazar-Cozens/Simmonds 4th. Then, for depth, let Vesey walk, but trade our 2022 3rd round pick to get him back again. It's the circle of life!

Admittedly, I was being a bit silly (thus the third 3rd round pick for Vesey-again). I should have made it 6M so its absurdity was more blatant.

But, I can totally see JBot standing pat and saying we've got all the 2Cs we need in Larsson, Kahun, and Cozens. Whether they're there yet, or not, or never should be considered for that role in the first place.

[Eleven]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Must. Be. Retained. 

 

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

How much?

Liger, this is the point that you repeatedly are missing.  No one wants him gone.  It's a question of cost.

[Randall Flagg]

I have a tough time seeing Larson getting any amount of money worth worrying about 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I have a tough time seeing Larson getting any amount of money worth worrying about 

But what represents smart use of the cap?

Based on counting stats $3 million is a big overpay. But one would think he was worth it based on your analysis as a guy that can play against good offensive players and win.

If it takes a Jay Beagle contract to keep him, do you pay?

[Neo]

This has become metaphor ... wonderfully.

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Eleven said:

 

Liger, this is the point that you repeatedly are missing.  No one wants him gone.  It's a question of cost.

Anything up to 2.75 mil

If this team can piss away 4.3 on Frolik, it can pay Larsson 2.75

Personally I think 2.5 for 3 years is good. 

[Huckleberry]

I would give him  4x2.5 easy and we will love it in the playoffs.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Huckleberry

[rakish]

42 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I would give him  4x2.5 easy and we will love it in the playoffs.

You can't sign a guy for half a season, can you?

[jsb]

I'm glad this came back up because I've always been confused by calling angry Larry a 4th line center. Here are the forwards that have the most TOI for the Sabres:

Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Johansson, Skinner and........... Larsson. He's clearly their 3rd line center and defensive stopper, who plays not against everyone else's 3rd or 4th line but the oppositions 1st or 2nd and although +/- is not the worlds best view on things, he was 2nd for forwards at +8 and who was 6th in forward scoring and first in +/- for forwards the hated and totally useless (??) Jimmy Vesey with +12 and he was also next in line for forwards to Larry in TOI. Now I'm not advocating Larsson deserves a big contract but what is the going rate for the top defensive forward on the team and 3rd line center??

[tom webster]

As I stated in another thread, the flat cap is going to have a dramatic effect on guys like Johann. Historically the stars get paid, young guys are used as filler and the middle class gets squeezed. He might decide Sweden's the answer. The fact that the cap could stay flat for three years further complicates things as guys like him can’t just sign for one year and hope to make it up on next contract.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

As I stated in another thread, the flat cap is going to have a dramatic effect on guys like Johann. Historically the stars get paid, young guys are used as filler and the middle class gets squeezed. He might decide Sweden's the answer. The fact that the cap could stay flat for three years further complicates things as guys like him can’t just sign for one year and hope to make it up on next contract.

It’s going to complicate things for any free agent not named Hall or Pietrangelo, and it will even affect them.

Minimum wage role players and ELC guys can’t really be hit, but if you are a guy that was thinking of a $2-6 million deal with term, your sights way down.

GMs can’t afford Okposo-type mistakes because there is less room for error and no place to dump salaries.

[Thorny]

I believe Larsson was the second best driver of play on the team last season after Eichel. Enough teams value the advanced metrics that I don’t think he’ll have to hard of a time finding a reasonable deal in this league. The Vesey’s of the world should be the players struggling to find roles, not someone as reliable as Larsson. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

I believe Larsson was the second best driver of play on the team last season after Eichel. Enough teams value the advanced metrics that I don’t think he’ll have to hard of a time finding a reasonable deal in this league. The Vesey’s of the world should be the players struggling to find roles, not someone as reliable as Larsson. 

Oh, he’ll find a role for sure. He just won’t get a big contract.

Edited July 20, 2020 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

Ah. This thread. And yes I was kidding on the numbers earlier. 

Without kidding, a flat cap and suppressed mid-6 salaries the next couple years, I think Larry is just as valuable as he’s been. Replace Girgs w Cozens or another ELC , and roll Larry Okposo other as the third line, providing we can find a 2C. Larry could still be in the 2-2.25 range if that LW is cheap. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[JohnC]

33 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Ah. This thread. And yes I was kidding on the numbers earlier. 

Without kidding, a flat cap and suppressed mid-6 salaries the next couple years, I think Larry is just as valuable as he’s been. Replace Girgs w Cozens or another ELC , and roll Larry Okposo other as the third line, providing we can find a 2C. Larry could still be in the 2-2.25 range if that LW is cheap. 

As you seem to suggest Girgs is more likely to leave than Larsson. Larsson certainly has a role as a defensive presence but if he departs there are many market options that are reasonably priced that can replace him. Your pegging his market value at the $2-2.25 range seams reasonable.  

I wouldn't be surprised that players such as Girgs and Larsson with moderate contract valuations might prefer to leave the Sabres simply for the reason that they need a fresh start and more positive outlook on another team. Another factor that might argue to move both of these players is that one of the deficiencies this team needs to address is having more scoring from the lower lines. As it stands there isn't much of a contribution made by the secondary lines. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see both players wearing different uniforms next year.