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Johan Larsson, must be retained


LGR4GM

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I realize this years free agency could be weird, but I would be surprised if someone gave Larsson over $2.5 with any kind of term. I like him, but guy has never played a playoff game or scored 20 points and only had 10 goals once in his career. 
Riley Nash was coming off a 40-point season when he signed for 2.7. jay Beagle had won a cup when he got $3 and both those guys are bad contracts.

I would be stunned if Tyler Toffoli settled for as low as $4. The guy will be paid like a 25-30 goal scorer and he makes $4.6 already. Zuccarello got $6 as a UFA last summer. Wayne Simmonds got $5. Nyquist $5.5. Anders Lee got $7.

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1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I realize this years free agency could be weird, but I would be surprised if someone gave Larsson over $2.5 with any kind of term. I like him, but guy has never played a playoff game or scored 20 points and only had 10 goals once in his career. 

Which is fine, but if you're him, are you going to take $2.25M to stay here or are you going to take $2.25M to go to a contender?

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7 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Which is fine, but if you're him, are you going to take $2.25M to stay here or are you going to take $2.25M to go to a contender?

I’d take a two-year $4 million to go to a contender with a hole for a player like me before I’d take $5 million over two from the Sabres.

He doesn’t seem to be connected to the community and he’s known nothing but losing here.

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11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unfortunately that is the type of cap $ allocation Jbot or any GM must make.  Do you invest 2.5 to 2.7 per season for a 4th line shutdown center or do you invest $4 mill in a 2nd line RW to help give us 2 excellent scoring lines?  Here is the picture.  I'm going to assume an $80 mill cap and no buyout.  

Forwards: 4 signed 29.5 mill.  RFAs Sam, Don, VO and Lazar - 15.5  That's 8 forwards for 45 mill.  Acquire a 2nd approx 5 mill.  --- 9 forwards 50 mill.  Positions open 3C, 2 RW, and 4 LW, 4 C (or 13 forward depending on where Lazar plays)

Defense: 5 signed for 13.975 - Montour traded to get the 2C.  Pilut re-signed for about 1 mill.  That's 6 D for 15 mill.  7th D slot open

Goalie: Ullmark re-signed for 4 mill.  Hutton demoted (leaves 1.65 cap hit) and someone else signed for $2.  That's 7.65

So far we are at 17 players for 73.5 with CoHo's buyout with 5 slots left to complete.

So how do you fill the 5 slots with 6.5 mill?  If you sign Angry Larry, you essential force Kahun into the 2RW role.  I'm actually ok with that, because I like Kahun, but if you want a more proven player at 2 RW, then you simply don't have the cap to keep Larsson as well.

 I also understand that as described above signing a Toffoli might be impossible regardless.  However, with a little luck, say shaving about 1.5 off the RFA contracts (say Ullmark gets 3.5 instead of 4, and we save another 1 mill between Sam, VO and Kahun under my projection, we may be able to swing 4 to 4.5 for Toffoli.  If that happens then some mix of Thompson, Mitts, Cozens, Lazar and Asplund are filling out the bottom six (with Kahun, MoJo and KO) and Larsson walks.  

Am confused.  Doesn't your lineup above already have a 2C in it?  Assumed that $5MM for "a 2nd" was for a Cirelli or Strome coming back in a Montour trade.  If so, doubt that Botterill would bring in a Toffoli.

Expecting you're a little high on the F RFA re-signing price tag.  They can get both Larsson and Girgensons back (though not if Botterill, shudder, re-signs Simmonds), but yes the other slots up front will be filled with 2 of Mittelstadt, Thompson, or Cozens and the spare D will likely be Borgen - all very cheap.  If Z isn't back, definitely a possibility, Asplund likely finally makes the show as well.

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14 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

He is, unless you like a fourth line that gets caved in at tank levels for 10 minutes per night, if you think that's conducive to winning, over a fourth line that can outscore  its opponents while shutting down other teams' elite lines 

This sounds great but I'm kinda skeptical as to whether it actually happened.  Is there any data on this?  i.e. data showing that when Larsson's line was matched up against other teams' top lines, Larsson's line outscored those lines?  Or for that matter data showing that Larsson's line held other teams' top lines below their scoring averages?

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13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unfortunately that is the type of cap $ allocation Jbot or any GM must make.  Do you invest 2.5 to 2.7 per season for a 4th line shutdown center or do you invest $4 mill in a 2nd line RW to help give us 2 excellent scoring lines?  Here is the picture.  I'm going to assume an $80 mill cap and no buyout.  

Forwards: 4 signed 29.5 mill.  RFAs Sam, Don, VO and Lazar - 15.5  That's 8 forwards for 45 mill.  Acquire a 2nd approx 5 mill.  --- 9 forwards 50 mill.  Positions open 3C, 2 RW, and 4 LW, 4 C (or 13 forward depending on where Lazar plays)

Defense: 5 signed for 13.975 - Montour traded to get the 2C.  Pilut re-signed for about 1 mill.  That's 6 D for 15 mill.  7th D slot open

Goalie: Ullmark re-signed for 4 mill.  Hutton demoted (leaves 1.65 cap hit) and someone else signed for $2.  That's 7.65

So far we are at 17 players for 73.5 with CoHo's buyout with 5 slots left to complete.

So how do you fill the 5 slots with 6.5 mill?  If you sign Angry Larry, you essential force Kahun into the 2RW role.  I'm actually ok with that, because I like Kahun, but if you want a more proven player at 2 RW, then you simply don't have the cap to keep Larsson as well.

 I also understand that as described above signing a Toffoli might be impossible regardless.  However, with a little luck, say shaving about 1.5 off the RFA contracts (say Ullmark gets 3.5 instead of 4, and we save another 1 mill between Sam, VO and Kahun under my projection, we may be able to swing 4 to 4.5 for Toffoli.  If that happens then some mix of Thompson, Mitts, Cozens, Lazar and Asplund are filling out the bottom six (with Kahun, MoJo and KO) and Larsson walks.  

What are a list of players not has good as Johan Larsson. 

I love that you are pushing the idea we should get a winger instead of signing a center. It is the Botterill playbook to a T.

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1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

I can't see Johan being a Sabre next year. Not because Botts doesn't want him but because he's a free agent and has a choice now. Why would he re-sign here?

 

56 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Bingo. 

I think Botterill signed Larry on a 1-year deal last summer as a placeholder while the kids matured. I think Larry accepted the deal as the quickest route to UFA. I think the Girgensons situation came about with similar logic.

I think in both cases Botterill miscalculated as both players proved to be easily among his top nine forwards this year, with no easy replacements emerging in the system.

Now he will likely be forced to overpay to keep or effectively replace them.

Edited by dudacek
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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

What are a list of players not has good as Johan Larsson. 

I love that you are pushing the idea we should get a winger instead of signing a center. It is the Botterill playbook to a T.

I never said that.  I have stated for 2 years we need to acquire a 2C and budgeted $5 mill for the 2C in the post you quoted.  You should read it more closely.  Try again.  I am saying we may be able to afford an upgrade also a 2 RW if we let guys like Larsson and Z walk and use guys like Asplund and Lazar on the 4th line instead. 

 

  

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47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think in both cases Botterill miscalculated as both players proved to be easily among his top nine forwards this year, with no easy replacements emerging in the system.

Rarely do I come to the defense of Jason Botterill, but it may be that Larsson only was willing to sign for one year, or only willing to sign for one year at that salary.

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2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

I think Botterill signed Larry on a 1-year deal last summer as a placeholder while the kids matured. I think Larry accepted the deal as the quickest route to UFA. I think the Girgensons situation came about with similar logic.

I think in both cases Botterill miscalculated as both players proved to be easily among his top nine forwards this year, with no easy replacements emerging in the system.

Now he will likely be forced to overpay to keep or effectively replace them.

I agree that he miscalculated, but I think the miscalculation was in overrating his other forwards, not in underrating Larsson or Zemgus.

I also think that Asplund and Lazar will competently replace Larsson and Zemgus, so I think that JB -- whom I'm ready to fire yesterday -- will be vindicated on this one.

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13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he miscalculated, but I think the miscalculation was in overrating his other forwards, not in underrating Larsson or Zemgus.

I also think that Asplund and Lazar will competently replace Larsson and Zemgus, so I think that JB -- whom I'm ready to fire yesterday -- will be vindicated on this one.

Yep, and for significantly less money.

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7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This sounds great but I'm kinda skeptical as to whether it actually happened.  Is there any data on this?  i.e. data showing that when Larsson's line was matched up against other teams' top lines, Larsson's line outscored those lines?  Or for that matter data showing that Larsson's line held other teams' top lines below their scoring averages?

I'll give it a look when I can. 

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he miscalculated, but I think the miscalculation was in overrating his other forwards, not in underrating Larsson or Zemgus.

I also think that Asplund and Lazar will competently replace Larsson and Zemgus, so I think that JB -- whom I'm ready to fire yesterday -- will be vindicated on this one.

I wish I had seen enough from Asplund to make me similarly comfortable.

i really like having those two as 13th and 14th/15th forwards, and am worried about relying on them for spots 11&12 with Botts specials being brought in for depth behind them. 

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said that.  I have stated for 2 years we need to acquire a 2C and budgeted $5 mill for the 2C in the post you quoted.  You should read it more closely.  Try again.  I am saying we may be able to afford an upgrade also a 2 RW if we let guys like Larsson and Z walk and use guys like Asplund and Lazar on the 4th line instead. 

 

  

I did read it. You need to get that bridge 2c and bring back Larson. To hell with Toffoli rw if it costs the best and only defensive C I have. 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yep, and for significantly less money.

I will bet on this. Lazar and Asplund won't be as good at Larson in the upcoming season. 

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Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

Lazar is a good player, and his face off skills get us points out of OT. Asplund is a potential player at this point 

Lazar is a replacement level player who looks good on a 4th line against other 3rd and 4th lines. Nothing wrong with that but he isn't Larsson. 

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37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lazar is a replacement level player who looks good on a 4th line against other 3rd and 4th lines. Nothing wrong with that but he isn't Larsson. 

You guys see Lazar’s FaceTime interview with Duff? (he’s been doing a bunch of them with players in isolation).

Lazar has already approached the Sabres about signing an extension. Loves the city and wants to stay here for a long time.

Implied that Botterill said “we’ll talk after free agency plays out.”

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3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Pay Larry 4Mx3, put him between Skinner and Okposo. Boom, 2C solved! Kahun-Asplund-MoJo 3rd. Thompson-Lazar-Cozens/Simmonds 4th. Then, for depth, let Vesey walk, but trade our 2022 3rd round pick to get him back again. It's the circle of life!

No. You don’t pay role players that kind of money. If Larry wants a dollar more than 2.25M you let him walk. Even that is steep. Others have pointed out the cost of good teams fourth liners and their production and we’ve got the majority of the board wanting to pay Larry the same without the production. 

We’ve been bad for so long that most forget what a good team looks like. 

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