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Johan Larsson, must be retained


LGR4GM

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Curtis Lazar is not Larsson even though I get the impression that the GM thinks this. Johan Larsson is elite at shot supression and shutting other teams down. He is one 2 natural centers on the roster currently that we know can handle NHL shifts on a regular basis. At this point he is about to be a UFA. I truly hope that Buffalo is working on a 3-4 year contract extension. Larsson is one of the most important forwards on the team currently. Larsson is a poor man's Kadri. As our team lacks offense and will for the foreseeable future it is a good idea to lock up a forward so adept at shutting things and starting the breakout. This should be a priority. 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2020/4/1/21202645/buffalo-sabres-player-report-card-johan-larsson

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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why do you think Botterill thinks Lazar is as good as Larsson?

 

I wouldn't be able to prove it, but I would probably place a wager that we don't bring in a Larry replacement should he walk, with Lazar as the reason why. 

I recall reading something suggesting that Larson was open to remaining a Sabre, though I can't find it now. I don't think it's as certain he leaves as others do

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20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why do you think Botterill thinks Lazar is as good as Larsson?

 

Larsson hasn't been re-signed. I have heard Botts talk about Lazar more than Larsson (may be my own issue there), and I honestly think he does like Lazar because Lazar is a Botts acquisition. 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Larsson hasn't been re-signed. I have heard Botts talk about Lazar more than Larsson (may be my own issue there), and I honestly think he does like Lazar because Lazar is a Botts acquisition. 

I’m worried you may be right about and I agree with your original post. Larsson is the kind of guy that good teams keep and I think he will be even better on a team with a true 2C.

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Agreed. This team needs someone to be Angry. Angry Larry is. Lazar could be angry, but he also needs a season or more before he is at Larry's level of angry and defensive skill. Until we have a legit 2C on the roster, Larry almost has to be re-signed and penciled in as the 3C, whether it's with the GLO/LOG, or some other LW-Larsson-Okposo combination.

None of the other non-Eichel "centers" in our current pool who will be in camp (minus a trade) are angry: Kahun, Johansson (loosely listed as a center because whynotJBot), Asplund, Lazar, Mittelstadt, Ruotsalainen, Malone (edit: and Cozens! as 4C or a winger for a season). Unless Kahun immediately fulfills potential as a center, or Asplund takes a huge step forward, that's... not looking like a fun camp behind Eichel. And Cozens shouldn't have to be Angry Cozens or expected to be defensively sound his rookie year.

12 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He's not coming back unless he's grossly overpaid

The thing working for the Sabres' favor in terms of Larsson's salary is he's never been in the playoffs. He's unlikely to get the Jay Beagle 3x3 because of a good playoff run and some GM or owner (think Ehrhoff and TPeg) saying "gotta have that guy". Larry's got some good fancy stats, but so do a lot of players. But he doesn't have offensive stats, and he certainly has no highlights or "signature" moments of awesome in high-stakes playoffs.

Edited by DarthEbriate
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14 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He's not coming back unless he's grossly overpaid

I don't know about that. I think for Larry it's just going to be about the best opportunity. Most teams aren't going to pay him any more than the Sabres would. It's just going to come down to whether or not he wants to stay here in the face of an offer from somewhere more interesting. 

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34 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't know about that. I think for Larry it's just going to be about the best opportunity. Most teams aren't going to pay him any more than the Sabres would. It's just going to come down to whether or not he wants to stay here in the face of an offer from somewhere more interesting. 

 

29 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I don’t think Larsson will be “grossly” overpaid. Unless one thinks 2-3 years at 2.5 - 2.75 is “grossly”. I don’t think any team will go north of that neighborhood.

That's what I'm trying to say.  It will cost the Sabres more to keep him than he will receive from a team that actually is poised to win.

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I think it is far more likely that the Sabres were pencilling Asplund into Larry’s spot than they were Lazar.

Asplund was drafted to be a two-way middle six centre and his development curve has supported that projection.He is about to enter his 3rd year pro, when players of his stature often make the jump, and he has more or less proven what he needs to prove at the Amerks level. Lazar is Asplund’s competition and his fallback option.

I believe the large amount of UFAs this year was by design, not only because of cap flexibility, but also because Jason projected a number of his development projects making a jump this spring and next fall.

The fact that so few of them showed great progress this year is concerning on multiple levels and I’m curious to see how (if?) Jason reacts.

Edited by dudacek
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I'm glad to have found another thread, sorry @Eleven.

I think Larry should be kept at any cost.  Well, not any cost.

The problem is that the Sabres will not be good enough to use Larry at his best, so he may not be invited back.  He will be very good in his role on a very good team.  It may take the Sabres too long to get there and we may have to find another Larry then.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think it is far more likely that the Sabres were pencilling Asplund into Larry’s spot than they were Lazar.

Asplund was drafted to be a two-way middle six centre and his development curve has supported that projection.He is about to enter his 3rd year pro, when players of his stature often make the jump, and he has more or less proven what he needs to prove at the Amerks level. Lazar is Asplund’s competition and his fallback option.

I believe the large amount of UFAs this year was by design, not only because of cap flexibility, but also because Jason projected a number of his development projects making a jump this spring and next fall.

The fact that so few of them showed great progress this year is concerning on multiple levels and I’m curious to see how (if?) Jason reacts.

A) I think the cap space thing is a little overblown 

B) Asplund would look good as the 3LW/ 4C. Again, it’s what good teams do. You slowly move guys in and if they overachieve, great!

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question:

Which would you rather have a re-signed Larsson or UFA signing of Toffoli, especially with Asplund and Lazar already in the organization? i know who I'd rather have and it's not Angry Larry.

I'm assuming Jbot moves a D to help acquire a legit 2C.

 

 

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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3 hours ago, Eleven said:

He's not coming back unless he's grossly overpaid

Does anybody here know how well he fits in with the rest of the team off the ice?

If he is tight with them, would expect he'll be back.  If not, you're probably right.  Which would stink, because if he leaves, there is now 1 additional hole to fill on this roster.

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9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

question:

Which would you rather have a re-signed Larsson or UFA signing of Toffoli, especially with Asplund and Lazar already in the organization? i know who I'd rather have and it's not Angry Larry.

I'm assuming Jbot moves a D to help acquire a legit 2C.

 

The pandemic and its impact on the cap next year will have a huge impact on questions like this.

Ordinarily it would be framed best as Larsson/Tage and $4 million in cap space versus Toffoli/Asplund. But is anyone going to be handing Toffoli a big deal with term, under the circumstances?

Does the Sabres cap flexibility shrink because of COVID-19? Or does its value grow because circumstances make it more rare and precious? Does the list of competitors for top free agents shrink? Do we have now have more leverage in the trade market because other teams will be forced to make tough decisions they otherwise would not have? 

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30 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

Our 4th line center is now a priority? Man, this team is bad.

True, because on this team Larsson plays a more consistent game than the 2C and 3C rubbish that we throw out there. 

 

One strategy is to get rid of as much of the ties to "the excessive losing era" as possible - i agree that Larry has been one of the better players for the past few seasons, but he is a 4th line center with PK ability and some grit - he should be simple to replace. 

Edited by Pimlach
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32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Does anybody here know how well he fits in with the rest of the team off the ice?

If he is tight with them, would expect he'll be back.  If not, you're probably right.  Which would stink, because if he leaves, there is now 1 additional hole to fill on this roster.

Fair point; I do not know how well he fits in.

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43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The pandemic and its impact on the cap next year will have a huge impact on questions like this.

Ordinarily it would be framed best as Larsson/Tage and $4 million in cap space versus Toffoli/Asplund. But is anyone going to be handing Toffoli a big deal with term, under the circumstances?

Does the Sabres cap flexibility shrink because of COVID-19? Or does its value grow because circumstances make it more rare and precious? Does the list of competitors for top free agents shrink? Do we have now have more leverage in the trade market because other teams will be forced to make tough decisions they otherwise would not have? 

The Sabres are actually in a good position to take advantage of the final cap number.  Scenario one is that the NHL and NHLPA agree to a flat or slight shrunk cap.  Scenario 2 is a larger fall in the cap, but with a COVID 19 buyout.  In either scenario teams with cap space such as Buffalo can go shopping either by trading for players (like Kahun or Strome) that teams can no longer afford (scenario 1) or by signing guys that are bought out (scenario 2).  Free agents (UFA and RFA) will also get smaller offers then in previous years which also works to our benefit.  The biggest wildcard is whether players and teams look to one year deals to kick the can down the road a year.  The player might take one year deals to try to maximize their contracts when things get back to more normal circumstances.  Teams may also do this to help stay cap compliant.  If this is the case, it will be interesting to see how cap strapped teams play roulette.  Do they try to lock up guys at longer "cheaper" deals (if they can) or do they try to maintain continuity.

As to Larsson for example, what is the market for a good shutdown, medium speed, but zero offense center in a cap league with a shrunken cap?  

For example, do CIrelli and Sergachev take 1 year bridge deals to try to cash in after next season thereby helping TB stay mostly intact or do they sign long term deals now? 

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2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

question:

Which would you rather have a re-signed Larsson or UFA signing of Toffoli, especially with Asplund and Lazar already in the organization? i know who I'd rather have and it's not Angry Larry.

I'm assuming Jbot moves a D to help acquire a legit 2C.

 

 

 

 

Those two skaters are answers to different questions. 

I don't want Toffoli centering the fourth line at all. I'd easily choose Larry for that role over Tyler. 

I don't want Larry as a wing, he's awful on the wing, and I don't want him on a scoring line. I'd easily choose Tyler for that role.

They shouldn't be put up against each other in any way. This was the summer of having cap space or whatever, we won't have to make a decision like this 

2 hours ago, OhMyDahlin said:

Our 4th line center is now a priority? Man, this team is bad.

He is, unless you like a fourth line that gets caved in at tank levels for 10 minutes per night, if you think that's conducive to winning, over a fourth line that can outscore  its opponents while shutting down other teams' elite lines 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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2 hours ago, tom webster said:

A) I think the cap space thing is a little overblown 

B) Asplund would look good as the 3LW/ 4C. Again, it’s what good teams do. You slowly move guys in and if they overachieve, great!

Would he? Asplund wasn't very impactful, and often was sorta bad, last season. I'm rather tired of writing multiple players with that descriptor into lineup spots and assuming they've grown or it'll work, that's the main reason we have had such anemic hockey teams over Jason's tenure 

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51 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Would he? Asplund wasn't very impactful, and often was sorta bad, last season. I'm rather tired of writing multiple players with that descriptor into lineup spots and assuming they've grown or it'll work, that's the main reason we have had such anemic hockey teams over Jason's tenure 

I should have wrote “would look better.”  In other words, who knows? Let’s not pencil him in till he proves it.

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3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Those two skaters are answers to different questions. 

I don't want Toffoli centering the fourth line at all. I'd easily choose Larry for that role over Tyler. 

I don't want Larry as a wing, he's awful on the wing, and I don't want him on a scoring line. I'd easily choose Tyler for that role.

They shouldn't be put up against each other in any way. This was the summer of having cap space or whatever, we won't have to make a decision like this 

He is, unless you like a fourth line that gets caved in at tank levels for 10 minutes per night, if you think that's conducive to winning, over a fourth line that can outscore  its opponents while shutting down other teams' elite lines 

Unfortunately that is the type of cap $ allocation Jbot or any GM must make.  Do you invest 2.5 to 2.7 per season for a 4th line shutdown center or do you invest $4 mill in a 2nd line RW to help give us 2 excellent scoring lines?  Here is the picture.  I'm going to assume an $80 mill cap and no buyout.  

Forwards: 4 signed 29.5 mill.  RFAs Sam, Don, VO and Lazar - 15.5  That's 8 forwards for 45 mill.  Acquire a 2nd approx 5 mill.  --- 9 forwards 50 mill.  Positions open 3C, 2 RW, and 4 LW, 4 C (or 13 forward depending on where Lazar plays)

Defense: 5 signed for 13.975 - Montour traded to get the 2C.  Pilut re-signed for about 1 mill.  That's 6 D for 15 mill.  7th D slot open

Goalie: Ullmark re-signed for 4 mill.  Hutton demoted (leaves 1.65 cap hit) and someone else signed for $2.  That's 7.65

So far we are at 17 players for 73.5 with CoHo's buyout with 5 slots left to complete.

So how do you fill the 5 slots with 6.5 mill?  If you sign Angry Larry, you essential force Kahun into the 2RW role.  I'm actually ok with that, because I like Kahun, but if you want a more proven player at 2 RW, then you simply don't have the cap to keep Larsson as well.

 I also understand that as described above signing a Toffoli might be impossible regardless.  However, with a little luck, say shaving about 1.5 off the RFA contracts (say Ullmark gets 3.5 instead of 4, and we save another 1 mill between Sam, VO and Kahun under my projection, we may be able to swing 4 to 4.5 for Toffoli.  If that happens then some mix of Thompson, Mitts, Cozens, Lazar and Asplund are filling out the bottom six (with Kahun, MoJo and KO) and Larsson walks.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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